Guest Post by Verity Jones
While the MSM is all hot under the collar about the Killer heat wave in the mid-East US, not a mention about the massive snow accumulation in the Western USA this year. It’s not just a few roads being late to open due to the excessive snow clearance effort (WUWT: here and here), the snowpack is way above average this year. Good news for water supply; bad news for riverside communities.
Just take a look at the extent of this – the Snotel map from 5th June below shows percent of normal snow-water equivalent. The measurements are mostly off the scale, which if you’ll note only goes up to 140% of normal. From the lack of blue and green dots, I’m taking it that the red ones are errors.
- Map from: NRCS Google Earth SNOTEL Data Layer
From mid-May there has been concern in many areas over the amount of snow and the potential for flooding, but instead of melting rapidly the snowpack has persisted, and even continued to accumulate. As of 9th June almost all states listed here (with the exception of Alaska, Arizona and New Mexico, which have much less than normal) are showing vast excesses of snow for the time of year. For example Utah:
And a different format depiction for Wyoming:
Below is yet another way of looking at it – here for the Upper Colorado (link: http://snowpack.water-data.com/uppercolorado/index.php), specifically the feed into Lake Powell. Now this really made me sit up. The levels were ticking along a bit above average until just after mid-April, then they began to rise, and rise, and rise. This says two possible things are happening – either more snow has been falling, and/or temperatures are just not rising enough to melt what is there. Either scenario says ‘cold’.
On 5th June:
“April 15th is the date of maximum snowpack and basinwide snowpack is currently 66.6% of the April 15th average
Snowpack is 277.9% of the June 5th average.”
Of course you just know that when the melt really does get going you just know that all that snow and the ensuing flooding will be blamed on CAGW.
This got me thinking – at what rate does snow melt? I mean we’ve got some truly gargantuan snow drifts in places – how likely is it that significant proportions of them will remain in places that have not retained snow in summer for years?
The last slide in this EPA presentation gives ranges for melt rate with a degree-day factor. The range seems to be 0.07-0.150 inches per day per degree F. These are estimates for a variety of conditions ranging from partially forested/shaded areas to open sun on a prairie. Although some are quite specific, they are still estimates. Now if we take the example of a 22ft drift in Colorado’s Rocky Mountain National Park (Road opens way late due to massive snow) and look up appropriate degree day figures for the region used with this range of melt rate, perhaps we can get an idea of the potential for residual snow pack at the end of the summer.
Using the U. S. degree-day mapping calculator (Coop, L. B. 2010. . Version 4.0. Oregon State University Integrated Plant Protection Center Web Site Publication E.10-04-1: http://uspest.org/cgi-bin/usmapmaker.pl), the following map is for Colorado, calculated between now and the end of September for a 32F base:
Key 
For the higher altitudes we have 1500-2600 degree days before we might expect reasonable additions if not accumulations of snow again, but, still using guestimates for the actual melt rate it seemed sensible to work with a range:
Starting at 264 inches (22 ft) 8th June, the table shows the estimated snow depth remaining on 30th September depending on the assumed melt rate and number of degree days (above 32F). [Update: The table above was produced on the assumption that the melt rates referred to depth of snow. Having covered a lot more background reading on this today I think I should have read the melt rate as “inches SWE/day*F”. Current rates of melting from the NOAA summary table are 0.1-1.6 inches SWE/day. For a 22ft starting snowpack (estimated as 150 inches SWE) my back-of-envelope calculation suggests melt rates would need to be sustained at >1.25 inches SWE/day to remove this depth of snow by the end of September.]
This suggests to me that at higher altitudes there’ll be significant snow ‘left behind’ this year. Those white patches on the distant mountains will be a welcome return for many – cameras at the ready folks!
More than that though, what effect will this have on local/regional temperatures? There would be increased albedo in the mountains where the snow is retained, and potential for cold air drainage as well as depressed river temperatures from prolonged snowmelt over the summer. These effects might be small, and it is, after all, just one unusual year.
Although this is “just weather”, what if we start to have more ‘higher than average’ years now that the PDO has flipped to a cold phase? High pass road opening dates are well documented in Washington State and, having plotted these for the Chinook Pass and North Cascades Highway, I had previously speculated Is the PDO correlated to road openings?
With many analyses suggesting cooler times are on the way, this year may be exceptional in recent experience, but how many “just one year”s would it take for us to notice the effects?
(Updated from post http://diggingintheclay.wordpress.com/2011/06/10/where-snows-dont-melt/)
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“Your global map shows global temps that fall in the lower range and higher range as compared to a 29 year base period (1969-1990). I don’t understand why a very short base period ending 21 years ago is used”
29 year base period should (obviously) read 21 years.
Accurate reports of observations are far better than the model outputs that politicians want us to believe. Over summer snowpack- that’s how glaciers start. Will Colorado soon be called ‘The Glacier State’?
And in the UK:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-north-west-wales-13731216
Mind you, not so long ago the same “news” source was forecasting that Snowdon would be snow free:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/north_west/6264931.stm
Full story:
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2011/06/story-continues.html
R Gates writes:
But what you’ll also notice on this chart, is that this is in fact one of the few regions of the the planet that is cooler than normal over the past 3 months, with the other significant region being Northern Australia.
Really? I guess that’s why this is the first time in the last decade I’m in mid-June and STILL have not turned on my air conditioner here in Shanghai. We’re sitting at 20 deg C and rain today, when it should be somewhere in the mid 30s. It’s been freakishly cool in Shanghai ever since last October – even had several “snowstorms” (Shanghainese consider a 2cm dusting to be a snowstorm) and a non-existent Spring.
The story continues
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2011/06/story-continues.html
R. Gates,
As I type it now, at 5:30 in the morning, June 12th, it’s 0 (zero) degrees Celsius in South Colorado, 15 miles from the New Mexico border, not exactly up in the skies (altitude 6200 feet). This sure is going to slow down the snow melt higher in the mountains, don’t you think? What “warm patch in the Pacific” could be responsible for that?
Sounds in big form what the UK is getting in miniature – extremes in different directions in different parts of the country.
Our spring here was incredibly wet (Scotland) or incredibly dry (south eastern part of UK).
Now they’ve called it as a drought, the rain’s starting down south. Go short on grains, long on fruits over here……
Some folks apparently think that snow in the UK in June signals an ice age. Last time I remember that I lived in Scotland and in summer 1989, after the mildest winter in decades, a serious dump of snow down to 500m happened in mid-June. I walked the plateaux of the big mountains that weekend and it was like a perfect March day in the Scottish mountains. It was freak weather, but it didn’t signal an ice age.
Isn’t it about time for a sophisticated discussion of biphasic flip-flops in different geographies when PDO etc flip?
Because with our drought in NW Europe, you may well find more rain in SE Europe. And North Africa. And Iberia.
Swings and roundabouts, swings and roundabouts.
Because the glaciers of Europe took a real pasting in April this year – unprecedented heat. Rockies look different.
It usually balances out.
When it doesn’t, of course is when little ice ages come along. Or end.
Now the models I’d be interested in seeing are those which loo to see what parameters over-ride normal damping signals.
Shanghai Dan says on June 12, 2011 at 3:00 am
Please do not be so harsh on R Gates because after all he has informed us that we humans are responsible for the acceleration of the hydrological cycle through stepping on the gas pedal, CO2, and presumably, if we are not careful we will crash when all that excess momentum meets something with greater mass or whatever (I am having trouble figuring out all the appropriate analogies as you can see but I am sure R Gates has it figured out.)
BTW, 你为什么住在上海？
In general, anecdotal reports about weather are very valuable when studying weather patterns, and if those reports last many many decades, they can even be valuable when studying climate. But weather so variable and so subject to the little changes that can force things one way or another in a system existing in spatio-temperal chaos, that even in the midst of a general drought you can get a rain storm, or a cool day in the middle of a heat wave, or visa versa.
I know I’m in the vast minority here WUWT for believing that is more likely than not that AGW (on some level or another is happening). Please note, I’ve never been a proponent of C-AGW, and have never talked about radical plans to tax anyone or the take away your beloved SUV’s. But having studied every facet of this issue for quite a long time (both the scientific, political, and economic facets mind you) I have come to the conclusion that it is more likely than not that some level of AGW is happening.
But what I’ve noticed is that BOTH sides of the issue seem to want to use anecdotal weather events to prove their cases, and in doing so, they simply prove how little they really grasp the larger context of the issue, and moreover, they actually do more damage to their case. Let me give an example from both sides, beginning with the “warmist” stance. In 2007, Arctic sea ice dropped to lows not seen in the modern satellite era, Now whether they had been that low in the past few hundred or thousand years in not completely known, and those who show pictures of submarines coming up in open water in the 1950’s or insist the Vikings sailed across an open Arctic ocean etc. are simply grasping at straws IMO. But when the sea ice dropped so much in 2007, you saw some “warmists” insist that we’d see an ice free Arctic by 2013 etc. This was of course completely irresponsible, and displayed a lack of understanding the full dynamics of why 2007 was so low. 2007 was so low because of a combination of extreme weather events that favored ice extent reduction on top of a longer-term downward trend. Sure enough, the sea ice did not drop so severely in 2008 and 2009. This is example of confusing weather extremes with climate trends. But make no mistake, the longer-term trend for Arctic Sea ice is downward, and even the GCM’s needed to be revised to show that it was more likely than not that we’d see an ice free summer arctic ocean far sooner than the previously estimated time of 2100 to 2200…probably more like 2030 or so.
On the skeptics side, we had some severe winters in parts of the N. Hemisphere such as Europe and the east coast of the U.S. the past few years and suddenly there are talks of a pending new “little ice age” or a return to glacial conditions, etc. As it turns out, some of the primary reason for the extreme weather may very well be related back to the lower arctic sea ice conditions and way the greater open water in the arctic could affect atmospheric circulation patterns. We do know that cold air was been shunted right from the Arctic over Europe and at the very same time Greenland was seeing temperatures 20C above normal. The point is, you can’t take weather events or anecdotes over a few years and translate that into anything meaningful in terms of the long-term climate. Not to pick on him specifically, but here’s an example:
John Marshall says:
June 12, 2011 at 2:29 am
Accurate reports of observations are far better than the model outputs that politicians want us to believe. Over summer snowpack- that’s how glaciers start. Will Colorado soon be called ‘The Glacier State’?
_____
A few years of higher snowfall in Colorado mountains hardly qualifies to give a trend returning to glacial conditions. Thinking so and saying so simply confuses the issue of weather and climate. Is it possible that due to a quiet Maunder Minimum type of sun that we could see a new “Little Ice Age” period. Absolutely. But a year or two of anecdotal weather is hardly enough information to go by. We do have indications that the sun is going through a quiet period, and some suggestions made that we could go through a few solar cycles of a nearly blank sun (solar cycle 25 and 26?) But no one knows for sure. Also, something that could be factor (though skeptics won’t admit it) is that we’ve got 40% more CO2 in the atmosphere than we had during the Maunder Minimum or even Dalton minimum. How might this affect the nature of a cool period?
I think one great advantage that I have is that I really could care less about the political aspects of AGW (though I am far from ignorant of them). I care about the science, and so when so one post a politically charged response to my posting of scientific studies, etc. It tells me were not talking on the same level, and I tend to ignore them.
Well thank goodness…
….that fact that neither side knows enough to prove or predict anything
means the science is not settled 😉
No science has had more time and money put into it than medical.
Yet, everyone is aware that medical can’t predict anything either.
…and no one is elevating a bunch of glorified weathermen to the status of medical
Richard Sharpe says:
June 12, 2011 at 8:00 am
“Please do not be so harsh on R Gates because after all he has informed us that we humans are responsible for the acceleration of the hydrological cycle through stepping on the gas pedal, CO2…”
_____
Nice analogy and probably quite accurate. Scientific studies would tend to indicate this is exactly the case:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/greenspace/2010/10/global-warming-river-flows-oceans-climate-disruption.html
The heavy western snow pack is a perfect example, BTW. But then, people would have to really care about the science and not the political spin to understand that cooler periods in earths history (such as glacials) tend to be cool and dry, and that when it warms, the hydrological cycles accelerates, and (over hundreds of thousands of years) this will serve to keep CO2 in a range.
Another bit of science that some who really care about the science should study is the difference between condensing and non-condensing GH gases. Water vapor is more potent a GH gas, but quickly condenses from a cooling atmosphere, and so, of course, regions of the planet like Antarctica, that is essentially still in a glacial period, is one of the coldest and driest places on earth, water vapor is almost non-existent in the middle of Antarctica and it is a dessert in term of how much precipitation actually falls. CO2 however, as a non-condensing GH gas remains in a fairly constant range in warmer and cooler climates, and is the rock-weathering carbon cycle that helps to keep CO2 in that range. Very fascinating stuff…some of you might do yourself a huge educational service to pull yourself away from your favorite political pundit long enough to actually study these things…
I think food is about to be a large issue. Cold returning early this fall? Crops planted way late, flooding. I heard somewhere that 16% of farmlands in Iowa under water. A lot of corn planted so late they cannot get crop insurance on it. Stunted crops in England from lack of rain.
Ed Mertin says:
June 12, 2011 at 9:37 am
I think food is about to be a large issue. Cold returning early this fall? Crops planted way late, flooding. I heard somewhere that 16% of farmlands in Iowa under water. A lot of corn planted so late they cannot get crop insurance on it. Stunted crops in England from lack of rain.
_____
Excellent discussion about this right now at Judith Curry’s blog. http://www.judithcurry.com
Has anyone noticed how anything cold winds up belivers in AGW. They get really ratty.
Has anyone noticed when scientific facts and research are used to supports a position certain people resort to ad hominems…i.e. calling people “ratty”.
I asked:
“What is a Singular Value Decomposition (SVD)?”
“Your global map shows global temps that fall in the lower range and higher range as compared to a 29 (correction: 21) year base period (1969-1990). I don’t understand why a very short base period ending 21 years ago is used.”
“I know that submissions to AGU are plentiful. I don’t understand why the abstract lists the authors names and schools but not their credentials. Are they students?”
“I’ve never heard of the IRI… Is this a good resource for climate change information?”
You replied, “I care about the science, and so when so one post a politically charged response to my posting of scientific studies, etc. It tells me were not talking on the same level, and I tend to ignore them.”
Did you think my questions were “politically charged” and that’s why you didn’t respond? Okay. I found the answers to my last two questions and have shared them so you will know, if you are asked again. How about returning the favor and taking a stab at my first two questions. Please?
Oubeidillah A. Aziz, (Graduate Research Assistant)
Glenn A. Tootle, P.E., M.ASCE
Steve Gray, Ph.D., Wyoming State Climatologist
Thomas C. Piechota, Ph.D. UCLA, P.E.
IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society) joined the Earth Institute in 2005. Email addresses of the principals are all at Columbia.edu It has 124 active projects or collaborations, which are publicly funded beginning in October, 2009.
Governance:
Dr. R.K. Pachauri (Board Chair), Director General, The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI)
Mr. Kazuo Aichi, Former Director General, Global Environmental Action (GEA), member of the House of Representatives, Japan, for 24 years, State Secretary of Foreign Affairs, Minister of the Environment, and Minister for the State of Defense.
Mr. Jan Egeland, Director, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI)
Mr. Chiang-Lin Hsin, Director General, Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan
Prof. Nay Htun, Executive Director for Asia and Pacific, University for Peace
Dr. Chester Koblinsky, Director, NOAA Office of Global Programs
Mr. Michael McElroy, Gilbert Butler Professor of Environmental Studies and Director, Center for the Environment at Harvard University
Prof. Jeffrey Sachs, Director, Earth Institute, Columbia University
Sir Crispin Tickell, Director, Policy Foresight Programme, James Martin Institute for Science and Civilization, Oxford University
Dr. Ching-Yen Tsay, National Policy Advisor to the President, Taiwan Republic of China
Rt. Hon. Simon Upton, Chairman, OECD Round Table on Sustainable Development Stephen E. Zebiak, Director General, The International Research Institute for Climate and Society
R Gates: “CO2 however, as a non-condensing GH gas remains in a fairly constant range in warmer and cooler climates”
And yet … arid places like Anarctica and deserts can get very cold and/or have huge diurnal temperature ranges. As opposed to moist regions. Its almost like CO2 has no effect.
The only comment that Mr. Gates points out I agree with is “I think food is about to be a large issue.” His assertion that AGW is real, is only found in urban heat islands. And for those who point to satellite data, it is software controlled, therefore is not in my opinion reliable when considering the agency that is behind the script writing.
Most moisture for the western US states and Canadian west is from the Pacific, regardless of whether the ocean is warmer or colder. The rest is from drying surface moisture such as snow pack, and/or lake affect, which originally came from the ocean.
For most of us, we can in general simply assess our climate by our seasonal change in weather. There are two basic premise for climate 1) dry continental air mass, and 2) moist ocean air mass. When the two collide, we see the nastiness of Mr. Dry meets Mr. Wet. If the weather is colder, it is not a climate change, we continue to still have the premise of western moisture from the Pacific and dry continental air masses making our weather. As the moist Pacific air moves east across the continent it interacts dry continental air and with the gulf air mass; another moist oceanic air mass.
If the globe temperature is warming, the air masses still create the weather; they are just warmer. Same for if the globe cools, we still endure with two types of climate from the two basic types of air mass. And you can go to any region of the planet and assess the climates affect on weather by the simple interaction between the battle of land air mass with oceanic air mass.
If I live on a tropical island in the middle of the Pacific, the climate will always be humid warm and tropical. Pick any spot on the globe and track the air masses to see which generally controls the climate and the resulting weather will be the result of that climate.
Now we see a coolness by the jet stream being more southern combined with a colder PDO combined with La Nina and there just isn’t enough CO2 make squat difference or any other feared green house gas…except the one we are all talking about: snow pack from excessive amounts dihydrogen monxide. eeeek
More MSM coverage of the unusually deep snowpack and the perils it presents:
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-snowpack-20110608,0,47010.story
R. Gates says:
June 12, 2011 at 11:23 am
‘Has anyone noticed when scientific facts and research are used to supports a position certain people resort to ad hominems…i.e. calling people “ratty”.’
Gates, you are a troll who has no idea that he is a troll. You are a very good troll. However, my guess is that you do not want that distinction at all.
Laurie says:
June 12, 2011 at 1:44 pm
I asked:
“What is a Singular Value Decomposition (SVD)?”
Answer: This is rather complex matrix mathematics, and if you’re into that, I would suggest you check out:
http://mathworld.wolfram.com/SingularValueDecomposition.html
But in terms of the unique way it was applied to find the region of the pacific that was most associated with the the snow pack in the Upper Colorado River Basin, essentially they broke the Pacific Ocean down into a matrix of regions, then using regression analysis (looking at past data) they identified the region. Again, this was a very unique, but quite legitimate use of SVD, and as such is rather unique in climate studies, and should open up many other fields for similar applications.
“Your global map shows global temps that fall in the lower range and higher range as compared to a 29 (correction: 21) year base period (1969-1990). I don’t understand why a very short base period ending 21 years ago is used.”
Don’t know the full answer to that and it may require more research, but if true, it may be based on data that is reliable with known margins of error. I will have to look into this a bit more.
R. Gates says:
June 12, 2011 at 9:10 am
The heavy western snowpack is a perfect example of empirical data that conflicts with the warming causes cooling theory about precipitation. The previous El Nino (warm moist air) in a cool PDO did not place anywhere near the snowpack that this years La Nina (cold moist air) did in a cool PDO. This years snowpack resembles that of the 1982-3 El Nino in a warm PDO.
Weather and Climate are not the easy one trace gas fits all slam-dunk.
Worse yet, the exceptional snowpack is not melting like it did in 1983, which is another hallmark of cooling.
Proof of cooling: http://www.intelliweather.net/imagery/intelliweather/tempcity_nat_120x90.jpg
It just doesn’t want to go away.
Sorry R.Gates, nothing personal, but it appears that the warming might have run out of gas.
The new ice age is already here. :>(
Werrrre allll doooomed!
Here is further sad evidence for the declining snowpack in the US.
Sublimation is a significant factor in late season snow/ice dissipation in the Rockies and here in Washington State. It goes straight from frozen solid water to water vapor and is carried out of the area where it provides shade and rainfall. The north/south orientation of the mountain ranges in the western states exposes the slopes to direct solar energy from early morning till late afternoon. There is less water to refreeze overnight.