AGW proponents lose yet another debate down under

In celebration of World Environment Day (today), the Queensland Division of the Property Council of Australia convened a breakfast meeting last Friday morning (June 3rd) to debate the topic “Australia needs a carbon tax”.

Leading speaker for the motion was Mr. Matthew Bell (Climate Change & Sustainability Services, Ernst & Young), supported by Ms. Kellie Caught (Acting Head of Climate Change, WWF Australia) and Mr. Kirby Anderson (Policy Leader, Energy Infrastructure, General Electric).

Speaking against the motion were Mr. Michael Matusik (Director, Matusik Property Insights), supported by Mr. John Humphreys (Director, Human Capital Project, University of Queensland) and Professor Bob Carter (James Cook University and Institute of Public Affairs).

The audience of about 150 persons were treated to some pointed exchanges, with the team speaking for the motion concentrating rather more on the science, and their opponents almost exclusively on the economics and cost:benefit analysis of the introduction of a carbon tax.

One compelling argument was the observation that to introduce a carbon tax of $25/tonne of carbon dioxide would cost around $100 billion by 2020, for a notional benefit of 0.0002O C (two ten thousandths of a degree) of warming averted.

The opponents of the tax were awarded a clear win, on rendered applause, by debate Chairman Mr Mark Ludlow (Australian Financial Review).

Source: summary written by an attendee known to me – Anthony

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Andy G55
June 5, 2011 4:20 pm

Ross says:
June 5, 2011 at 2:28 pm
“If Australia wants to make a meaningful inroad into global warming just shut down the coal industry.”
Erroneous thinking Ross. There are more than adequte supplies of coal elsewhere, its often of poorer quality, and often harder to get at and in countries without the infrastructure that Australia has, but it will still be used if necessary.
China itself has very large deposits and at one stage were actually exporting as much as Australia (iirc). It would cost lives, but they could ramp up their production if necessary, but because of the lower heat quality, CO2 emmission would be higher per unit energy.
Our coal is used because of its high quality, we provide some 80% of the world metalurgical coal out of Gladstone. Newcastle is mainly thermal coal.
ps… disclaimer on exactness, trying to dredge up stuff from memory of a study I did some 3 years ago. Do some research yourselves if you want to find more info.

Jay Davis
June 5, 2011 4:34 pm

Would someone please tell me what science “the team speaking for the motion concentrating rather more on the science,” was the team concentrating on? As far as I know, the AGW folks only have pseudo-science to go on!

rbateman
June 5, 2011 4:35 pm

I can write a computer model to simulate Pluto being made of Limburger Cheese, but that doesn’t make it so. We’ll know what Pluto is made of in 4 years.

alan
June 5, 2011 5:06 pm

“Bogosity”__many possibilities! “Anthropogenic Global Bogosity”, “Catastrophic Global Bogosity”, the “bogosphere”, possibly even a Nobel Prize in Climate Bogosity! Wait__that’s already been awarded.

Robertvdl
June 5, 2011 5:13 pm

We could tax oxygen O2 consumption too. Countries that consume more oxygen, industrialized countries, can buy oxygen permits from poor countries with a lot of rain forest that produce oxygen. It’s not fair that the rich countries use this product without paying for it.

wws
June 5, 2011 5:36 pm

I do believe Ross’s comment was intended to be sarcasm.

AndyG55
June 5, 2011 5:38 pm

@Robertvdl
In essence, the CO2 tax IS a tax on oxygen. A large proportion of oxygen usage involves combining said oxygen with carbon in some form or other to release energy.
That’s what animals do. Its part of the natural cycle.
If they want to call it a “carbon tax” when taxing CO2, then in reality, since there is twice as many oxygen atom, the name “oxygen tax” is twice as appropriate.

NikFromNYC
June 5, 2011 5:44 pm

Jimbo wrote: “They don’t even like sceptical comments because I have now been banned 10 times by the Guardian for pointing out inconvenient issues with AGW.”
Yup! I believe they respond to a small but determined little gang of readers who complain to the moderators. I suspect this because prior to the first time it happened someone warned me to lay low or they would make such a complaint, next time. I ignored him and was banned that day.
I wasn’t just banned from the PR firm owned DeSmogBlog after posting quotes from the owner’s book but IP banned from viewing the site, which now re-directs to Google. That wasn’t a big deal since they only average a handful of comments a day. It was amazing what they let me post though for a week or two prior, as in detailed fact checking, poster graphics, some autobiography, minor flame war self-defense, and psychological analysis. Just before the ban another user said they were currently “asleep at the wheel” after I artificially ended on a good note by complimenting the site for not moderating dissent. Now readers there will assume I went away happy, on my own.
That’s what John Cook’s site started doing too, though I haven’t been banned outright. They let a couple things through then effectively thread ban me after a moderator adds a snarky and condescending insult about my intelligence as I “cherry pick” and spew “denialist talking points”, so again the appearance is given that I surrendered the debate.
I haven’t gotten a comment in at Real Climate since Climategate weakened when they dropped their guard.
The fun outlook on this is how universal the story continues to be of how many skeptics were initially minted by their first hand experience on these very blogs.
The real reason I venture onto AGW enthusiast sites though isn’t to debate with the deeply converted but to understand better what drives them since it sure isn’t tree hugging, but a combination of authoritarianism and hive mindedness that I’m actively studying to try to figure out their vulnerabilities. Newly minted skeptic David Mamet, playwright, suggested the book “Instincts Of The Herd In Peace And War” and John Ray of greeniewatch.blogspot.com suggested the poem “My Last Duchess” by Browning. I love old books!
Tip: YouTube won’t filter links in comments if you strip the “http:/” and add a line feed between the “.” and the “com”. When the URL is then copy/pasted the line feed evaporates.
Celebration: Apple’s “Pages” iPhone app sure makes it easier to prepare a comment!

SidViscous
June 5, 2011 5:49 pm
Russell
June 5, 2011 5:50 pm

I think the mere fact that Ernst & Young have a climate change department tells you all you need to know – that there are going to be vast sums of money swilling around and lots of people siphoning lots of it off at various stages of the cycle.
So many people stand to make so much money, this scare (or bogosity, as it should now be known) may never die.

June 5, 2011 6:50 pm

Nonetheless, on Sunday, thousands of Australians rallied to tell the Government that it should increase taxes (for other, richer people, of course). Seldom in history will you find similar cases of chickens petitioning foxes to come and eat their fill.
See “Say ‘Yes’ Rally Chants”.

Alvin
June 5, 2011 7:25 pm

Beware, leftists (socialists) only value public debate and input when it agrees with their agenda. This will be marginalized and ignored, full steam ahead.

Justthinkin
June 5, 2011 7:33 pm

Scottish sceptic…..please post vomit warning before using that site again,,,:):)
On another note, here in Canuckistan,British columbia to be exact,they have a carbon tax. It is currently 10% on every liter of gas sold,soon to be 13%(July 1st). 500 miles to the east,we pay 1.099 dollars/lt.They pay 1.249/lt. Ah. It must be good to live in LaLaLand,what with all them extra bucks for social reform coming in!

Thumbnail
June 5, 2011 7:45 pm

Say YES to an election in Australia. We need to put an end to this utter madness.

observa
June 5, 2011 7:49 pm

As Andrew Bolt points out they’re all running scared Down Under-
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/why_is_gillard_terrified_to_meet_a_sceptic/
when it’s a golden opportunity for them all to confront and demolish an international skeptic/denier with all their proven science and valid arguments. We Aussies have an appropriate term for such people- ‘Gutless wonders’!

DavidM
June 5, 2011 8:03 pm

Don’t be fooled by the Chairman’s association with a finance journal, the Australian Financial Review is owned by Fairfax which is the propaganda arm of the Labor government here.

George Turner
June 5, 2011 8:30 pm

@SidVicious
So Australian AGW proponents want to skeptics to be forcibly tattooed as “denialists” on some obvious part of their bodies. When you think unbelievers should be branded, you’re not just part of a religion, you’re part of an out-of-control, intolerant, wacko religion.

F. Patrick Crowley
June 5, 2011 8:33 pm

Well said, Tucci78. Two things are necessary for the AGW Theory: 1) Temperature must be increasing. If the data is uncorrupted and valid, seemingly a dubious proposition given the manipulation by Hansen, et. al., then the rise should be a straight line, or hyperbolic plot; and 2) there must be a direct correlation between CO2 levels and the global temperature. Looks to be a problem here………..CO2 is in a straight line rise (perhaps), but temps are not.
I used to build models as a child. The cars looked great, but were easily breakable. And none of them ever actually ran 200 mph.

pat
June 5, 2011 8:42 pm

from an aussie govt climate website:
Management of large feral herbivores (camels) in the Australian rangelands
The methodology involves the removal of feral camels with the emissions reduction benefit based on the difference between the estimated age of the animal at removal and the predicted average age of natural mortality. There are four main activities of feral camel removal that will result in emissions reductions under the methodology.
Proponent: Northwest Carbon Pty Ltd
http://www.climatechange.gov.au/government/initiatives/carbon-farming-initative/methodology-development/methodologies-under-consideration/management-of-feral-herbivores.aspx
u have to laugh…

Patrick Davis
June 5, 2011 8:43 pm

The Aussie MSM have gone into overdrive in support for carbox taxes. The w/e there were 5, maybe 6 articles. A couple today including this one…
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/the-dangers-of-boneheaded-beliefs-20110602-1fijg.html
WOW! People who have studied this and disagree are “boneheads”. Thankyou very much Mr Glover, that is of course, YOUR opinion.

Niall
June 5, 2011 8:59 pm

An average male human expels around 12.6 million litres of CO2 per year. Should we reward serial killers with an exemption to the CO2 tax?

bw
June 5, 2011 9:17 pm

An adult male respires less than one kilogram of CO2 per day.
Say 1000 grams CO2 divided by 44 grams per mole gives about 22 moles per day.
One mole of CO2 is 22.4 liters so thats 492 liters per day.
Times 365 days thats just under 180000 liters per year.
Exhaled breath is roughly 5 percent CO2 by volume, about 50000 ppm

Antonia
June 5, 2011 9:21 pm

NikFromNYC says:
June 5, 2011 at 5:44 pm
“The real reason I venture onto AGW enthusiast sites though isn’t to debate with the deeply converted but to understand better what drives them since it sure isn’t tree hugging, but a combination of authoritarianism and hive mindedness that I’m actively studying to try to figure out their vulnerabilities.”
Yes, it’s a puzzle. On the weekend there were rallies around Australia in support of a carbon [sic] tax. That’s bizarre; normal healthy people don’t demand the government increase their taxes. These people actually hate sceptics. I don’t hate the believers, but I do feel sorry for them that they’ve been duped. Maybe that’s the source of their hatred, a fear that they might be wrong.
A couple of post down from yours, SidViscous provided a link to a piece by Richard Glover. Glover is supposed to be funny, but that piece wasn’t funny at all. It was full of bile. What IS funny is that the alarmists regularly predict rising sea levels, but none of the posh people are selling their waterfront properties. Money talks.

June 5, 2011 9:56 pm

At 8:33 PM on 5 June, F. Patrick Crowley had written:

Two things are necessary for the AGW Theory: 1) Temperature must be increasing. If the data is uncorrupted and valid, seemingly a dubious proposition given the manipulation by Hansen, et. al., then the rise should be a straight line, or hyperbolic plot; and 2) there must be a direct correlation between CO2 levels and the global temperature. Looks to be a problem here………..CO2 is in a straight line rise (perhaps), but temps are not.

For these reasons – and others – the AGW hypothesis does not even rise to the level of “theory.”
The order of scientific notions has been detailed as “conjecture, hypothesis, theory, and law.
Drawing from Jeff Glassman’s article in The Crossfit Journal (December 2007):

1. A conjecture is an incomplete model, or an analogy to another domain. Here are some examples of candidates for the designation:
• “Ephedrine enhances fitness.”
• “The cosmological red shift is cause by light losing energy as it travels through space.” (This is the “tired light conjecture.”)
• “The laws of physics are constant in time and space throughout the universe.” (This one is known in geology as “uniformitarianism.”)
• “Species evolve to superior states.”
• “A carcinogen to one species will necessarily be carcinogenic to another.”
2. A hypothesis is a model based on all data in its specified domain, with no counterexample, and incorporating a novel prediction yet to be validated by facts. Candidates:
• “Mental aging can be delayed by applying the ‘use it or lose it’ dictum.”
• “The red shift of light is a Doppler shift.”
3. A theory is a hypothesis with at least one nontrivial validating datum. Candidates:
• Relativity.
• Big Bang cosmology.
• Evolution.
4. A law is a theory that has received validation in all possible ramifications, and to known levels of accuracy. Candidates:
• Newtonian mechanics.
• Gravity.
• Henry’s Law.
• The laws of thermodynamics.
Each of these candidates can stir arguments worthy of a paper, if not a book, and no model is secure in its position. Weak scientists will strengthen their beliefs and stances by promoting their models while demoting the competition. Some familiar models fail even to be ranked because they are beyond science, usually for want of facts. Candidates:
• Creation science or notions of “intelligent design.”
• Astrology.
• Parapsychology.
• UFO-ology.

With specific reference to AGW, Glassman continues:

Just as intelligent design is a threshold question between nonscience and conjectures, anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is a threshold question between conjectures and hypotheses. AGW is a centuries-old conjecture elevated to an established belief by a little clique of quacks who proclaim themselves the Consensus on Climate, guardians of the vault of exclusive knowledge. Does this sound familiar? Is the Consensus patterned after the Council of Trent? As a matter of science, as opposed to a matter of belief, the AGW conjecture is gathering more contradictory evidence than supporting. The layman can test it and understand its failings by applying just the few principles outlined here.
AGW fails the test because it is proclaimed by a consensus. Science places no value on such a vote. A unanimous opinion, much less a consensus, is insufficient. Science advances one scientist at a time, and we honor their names. It advances one model at a time. When the article gets around to saying “most scientists believe…,” it’s time to go back to the comics section. Science relies instead on models that make factual predictions that are or might be validated.
AGW fails on the first order scientific principles outlined here because it does not fit all the data. The consensus relies on models initialized after the start of the Industrial era, which then try to trace out a future climate. Science demands that a climate model reproduce the climate data first. These models don’t fit the first-, second-, or third-order events that characterize the history of Earth’s climate. They don’t reproduce the Ice Ages, the Glacial epochs, or even the rather recent Little Ice Age. The models don’t even have characteristics similar to these profound events, much less have the timing right. Since the start of the Industrial era, Earth has been warming in recovery from these three events. The consensus initializes its models to be in equilibrium, not warming.
And there’s much, much more.
Anthropogenic Global Warming is a crippled conjecture, doomed just by these principles of science never to advance to a hypothesis. Its fate would be sealed by a minimally scientifically literate public.

With all due deference, therefore, pains must be taken at all times never to use the phrase “AGW Theory,” and to employ the word “hypothesis” in discussions of this gaudy, ghodawful fraud only as a matter of courtesy.

URKidding
June 5, 2011 10:03 pm

SidViscous says:
June 5, 2011 at 5:49 pm
This must be what has gotten this columnist in an uproar.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/the-dangers-of-boneheaded-beliefs-20110602-1fijg.html
George Turner says:
June 5, 2011 at 8:30 pm
==========================================================
Clearly both of you failed to read the whole article.
Not uncommon around here apparently.