NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center posted an update to their graphs today.
They show the largest gains in solar cycle 24 tracking metrics I’ve seen yet.
See graphs below:
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Well…as they say, one jump does not a trend make 😉 Time will tell.
Chears!
Jeff
Anthony et al,
Have any of you constructed an animation of the sunspot predictions.
Would you please link to the various images that NOAA has produced? I will download and make a gif of the variations in sunspot number predictions in time. I think it will be amusing and informative.
Watt goes up?
Ya. I saw those graphs already on the solar page of a website called WattsUpWithThat — John M Reynolds
Today’s sun at Spaceweather.com shows a precipitous decline of sunspot activity.
And March was one of the coldest Marches in several years?
And if our only hope to avert a catastrophic mini ice age depended on burning coal, oil, and forests, we would be all be doomed. We could not warm the planet if our lives depended on it.
Soon enough, enough snow will melt in California so that they can reopen their ski resorts.
And the government will shut down if the the ruling regime is not able to fund the EPA and tax the air we breath.
I thought the 21st Century was gonna be a cool century to live in. I thought we would have flying cars and Hilton hotels on the moon and Mars by now.
What a disappointment. Science used to by mankind’s best friend. Now “science” is used as a club to beat hot air taxes from burned out taxpayers.
Is anybody as pissed of as I am?
How much are those people paid again?
At least since March and so far for the beginning of April. Upper HF conditions have started to improve. US stateside 10M FM repeaters are starting to come through nearly daily. Along with 10M SSB amateur radio comms into NZ.
Longpath reception on 10M to Southern Europe is also coming through some mornings aswell. So there’s been some improvement with the recent increase of solar activity.
Presently, per Joseph D’Aleo’s research, this cycle will peak around the winter of 2013/2014 give or take a year for a total of 220 total average mean for the cycle in 2019. This will be one third the strength of the last 7 cycles.
Sincerely,
Paul Pierett
PS. “Grab your coat and Grab your hat!”
Reply to Tom Rowan:
Yes I’m mad too. Where the heck is my jetpack?
Here’s the April NASA Marshal Space Flight prediction. It is much more reasonable looking than the ridiculous NOAA prediction:
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml
Compare this with April 05-07 in 2008, 2004, and 2001 with the one in 2011. It may be an uptick, but we’re still worlds away from the activity of those three previous samples.
http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/soho_movie_theater
(Note: If you’re looking for the HMI Magnetogram before 2010, you’ll not find it. Use the MDI magnetogram.)
Looks like the start of a mimic of Cycle 14 as surmised by Leif!?
Umral area of the sunspots in SC24 has not kept pace with the 10.7cm flux:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/TempGr/uSC24vs13_14.GIF
despite the spike of activity in March. There will be more spikes to come, but no reason to start exptrapolating stairways to heaven.
Tom Rowan says:
April 7, 2011 at 3:39 pm
I thought the 21st Century was gonna be a cool century to live in. I thought we would have flying cars and Hilton hotels on the moon and Mars by now.
It could have been, and we should have at least been to Mars, but political killjoys and partypoopers have managed to suck the air out of the Century.
Tom Rowan says:
April 7, 2011 at 3:39 pm
I’ll vote for “incredulous”
Tom Rowan says:
April 7, 2011 at 3:39 pm
I’m right there with you, brother. I’m plenty mad. I was angry with the way most of the government treated anything scientific for the last 20 years. I didn’t think it could get worse. But then I cringed when
ObummerObama said during his inaugural address that he was going to “restore science to its rightful place.” I knew exactly what that meant and how he was going to try to make that happen. Joy 🙁Tom Rowan: absolutely. More than that. Absolutely !!
Ian Cooper says:
April 7, 2011 at 4:56 pm
Looks like the start of a mimic of Cycle 14 as surmised by Leif!?
The Sun is a messy place. Expect those wild swings for low cycles. On the other hand, it does not look like a Grand Minimum as some will have it.
One jump doesn’t make a trend, but I wonder if it makes an earthquake or volcanic eruption.
It’s easy to catch up the sunspot numbers. That’s why when we can barely see three specs on the Sun’s disc, the sunspot count is 64. Go back and compare a sunspot count of 64 in the past solar cycle to a count of 64 today and see what I mean.
David Thomson says:
April 7, 2011 at 6:35 pm
Go back and compare a sunspot count of 64 in the past solar cycle to a count of 64 today and see what I mean.
Is this what you mean:
http://www.specola.ch/drawings/1998/loc-d19980124.JPG where SSN = 66
http://www.specola.ch/drawings/2011/loc-d20110331.JPG where SSN = 66
Hathaway finally nails it!!!
Perhaps the best indicator of a sharp change in solar activity as it affects climate is the Oulu cosmic Ray count. http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/#database
There was a sudden drop of about 3% between Mar 29th and 30th and a complete change in the rate of decline since that date. This indicates a very sudden increase in solar activity with a resulting rapidly declining cosmic ray count. This may lead to a fairly rapid decrease in cloud cover – ocean warming and the demise of the current El Nina within the next several months. Anyone got any ideas of what solar (or cosmic? )event caused this sudden change? ( Wild speculation check out GRB 110328A)
Ok, let’s compare SC23 and SC24 from thier start dates:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/SC24/SC24_24progress.PNG
and see how things stack up.
My, what a difference in slopes.
Pete Tillman stated that “All you need to do is look at glaciers melting, crops ripening earlier, tender plants surviving further north than before, etc. etc.”
Then perhaps you can explain why in Florida the frost belt has moved 100 miles south.
Hundreds of orange groves no longer exist in northern Florida because the freezing temps destroyed them.
Go ahead give it your best shot.