It’s damning, and published by a green group. The study cited by the BBC is from the John Muir trust of all places. This would be a good place to point out what I posted a few days ago: The reality of wind turbines in California. Told ya so. From the BBC:
BBC story here (h/t to WUWT reader Wayne)
James Delingpole quips that “Official: wind farms are totally useless” Well, maybe not totally useless (unless he’s talking about the ones in Hawaii from my recent article) but these efficiencies are proof positive that the current wind power technology will never be anything but a small sporadic supplemental power source.
PRINCIPAL FINDINGS
in respect of analysis of electricity generation from all the U.K. windfarms which are metered by National Grid, November 2008 to December 2010. The following five statements are common assertions made by both the wind industry and Government representatives and agencies. This Report examines those assertions.
1. “Wind turbines will generate on average 30% of their rated capacity over a year.”
2. “The wind is always blowing somewhere.”
3. “Periods of widespread low wind are infrequent.”
4. “The probability of very low wind output coinciding with peak electricity demand is slight.”
5. “Pumped storage hydro can fill the generation gap during prolonged low wind periods.”
This analysis uses publicly available data for a 26 month period between November 2008 and December 2010 and the facts in respect of the above assertions are:
1. Average output from wind was 27.18% of metered capacity in 2009, 21.14% in 2010, and 24.08% between November 2008 and December 2010 inclusive.
2. There were 124 separate occasions from November 2008 till December 2010 when total generation from the windfarms metered by National Grid was less than 20MW. (Average capacity over the period was in excess of 1600MW).
3. The average frequency and duration of a low wind event of 20MW or less between November 2008 and December 2010 was once every 6.38 days for a period of 4.93 hours.
4. At each of the four highest peak demands of 2010 wind output was low being respectively 4.72%, 5.51%, 2.59% and 2.51% of capacity at peak demand.
5. The entire pumped storage hydro capacity in the UK can provide up to 2788MW for only 5 hours then it drops to 1060MW, and finally runs out of water after 22 hours.
OTHER FINDINGS have emerged in the course of this analysis in addition to the Principal Findings which related to the testing of five common assertions. These Other Findings are listed below.
1. During the study period, wind generation was:
* below 20% of capacity more than half the time;
* below 10% of capacity over one third of the time;
* below 2.5% capacity for the equivalent of one day in twelve;
* below 1.25% capacity for the equivalent of just under one day a month.
The discovery that for one third of the time wind output was less than 10% of capacity, and often significantly less than 10%, was an unexpected result of the analysis.
2. Among the 124 days on which generation fell below 20MW were 51 days when generation was 10MW or less. In some ways this is an unimportant statistic because with 20MW or less output the contribution from wind is effectively zero, and a few MW less is neither here nor there. But the very existence of these events and their frequency – on average almost once every 15 days for a period of 4.35 hours – indicates that a major reassessment of the capacity credit of wind power is required.
3. Very low wind events are not confined to periods of high pressure in winter. They can occur at any time of the year.
4. The incidence of high wind and low demand can occur at any time of year. As connected wind capacity increases there will come a point when no more thermal plant can be constrained off to accommodate wind power. In the illustrated 30GW connected wind capacity model with “must-run” thermal generation assumed to be 10GW, this scenario occurs 78 times, or 3 times a month on average. This indicates the requirement for a major reassessment of how much wind capacity can be tolerated by the Grid.
5. The frequency of changes in output of 100MW or more over a five minute period was surprising. There is more work to be done to determine a pattern, but during March 2011, immediately prior to publication of this report, there were six instances of a five minute rise in output in excess of 100MW, the highest being 166MW, and five instances of a five minute drop in output in excess of 100MW, the highest being 148MW. This indicates the requirement for a re-assessment of the potential for increased wind capacity to simulate the instantaneous loss (or gain) of a large thermal plant.
6. The volatility of wind was underlined in the closing days of March 2011 as this Report was being finalised.
* At 3.00am on Monday 28th March, the entire output from 3226MW capacity was 9MW
* At 11.40am on Thursday 31st March, wind output was 2618MW, the highest recorded to date
* The average output from wind in March 2011 was 22.04%
* Output from wind in March 2011 was 10% of capacity or less for 30.78% of the time.
The nature of wind output has been obscured by reliance on “average output” figures. Analysis of hard data from National Grid shows that wind behaves in a quite different manner from that suggested by study of average output derived from the Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROCs) record, or from wind speed records which in themselves are averaged. It is clear from this analysis that wind cannot be relied upon to provide any significant level of generation at any defined time in the future. There is an urgent need to re-evaluate the implications of reliance on wind for any significant proportion of our energy requirement.
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The BBC doing an anti-Green article. Let me think aout this for a minute…..
Hmmmm
Methinks there may be levers being pulled by the government here. There were all on track to replace all the UKs nuclear power stations with new nuclear plants – and then the Japanese disaster happened and more than a few ministers started to waver and cry that we needed more windelecs.
Is this a shot across the bows of the waverers?
.
A usefull page
http://www.bmreports.com/bsp/bsp_home.htm
trying to use low grade windpoeert to disassociate H2O is dumb. It would be much better to simply run desalinization plants and pump the water into the ground to replenish the Aquifers.
All the Environmental Eco-chondriacs in the California Coastal cities could dot their seacoast with such nonsensical “Gaia saving” activities. They could see the “profits” to finance more and more desalinization. After all, why import water from Colorado to feed San Francisco and Los Angeles sitting by the Sea? Wouldn’t it be better for the neo-Druidic Gaians to achieve yet another desirable eco-warrior aim?
We could leave electric generation to qualified people, instead of these politically correct, ignorant and stupid imbeciles.
Re: David A. Evans.
I doubt that they just have a single meter showing their net contribution to the grid.
Every watt they generate will be metered, contributed to the grid, and charged for at the higher “green” tariff. Every watt they consume will be bought from the grid at the lower wholesale tariff. This means that would be less profitable for them to use their own energy.
From polistra on April 6, 2011 at 10:33 am:
Now at the article:
Current article title: Wind and wave farms could affect Earth’s energy balance
Excerpts:
The Sun provides the energy, and there’s only so much of it we can harvest without causing serious disruptions, with an additional problem being the converting of the energy into low grade heat.
(For some strange reason I thought Coriolis forces had something to do with global circulation patterns, whose energy comes from the vast reservoir of angular momentum of our rotating planet, but apparently that’s too negligible to mention.)
On the second page, it’s revealed that solar cells, the “better” way of harvesting solar power, have limited efficiency and convert unused sunlight into heat, contributing to global warming. “Sustainable solar energy may therefore require cells that reflect the light they cannot use.”
For “News You Can Use” from New Scientist, for a change, researchers have discovered a helpful new treatment for Restless Leg Syndrome, well worth trying.
Offshore wind will do better. So will high altitude wind. So long as the money is being lost by private developers when their output is lower than expected, I don’t mind. And it looks like storage is becoming practical.
An electric generation magazine (Power Mag) recently discussed their top 5 energy storage options. It sounds like 80% round trip efficiency storing electrical energy at a utility scale is becoming practical. Also, technologies to fix CO2 into liquid carbon fuels are on the list.
http://www.powermag.com/issues/features/Energy-Storage-Enables-Just-in-Time-Generation_3556.html
MUCH more important is the fact the the bBBC actually permitted an ‘anti-green’ article to be presented on prime time TV. The bBBC has a pro-AGW agenda that is increasingly frantic in the face of the onslaught of evidence that is destroying the ’cause’. For this article to even get past the ‘censors’ is amazing in its own right!
Could we *finally* be seeing the turn?
“During the study period, wind generation was:
* below 20% of capacity more than half the time;
* below 10% of capacity over one third of the time;
* below 2.5% capacity for the equivalent of one day in twelve;
* below 1.25% capacity for the equivalent of just under one day a month.”
The answer, my friends,
is blowin’ in the wind.
The answer is blowin’ in the wind…”
Bob Dylan
YIKES!!! It’s an ‘answer’ we can not rely on or afford!
Thanks for the update, Anthony and contributors! This is more useful information to educate my spineless state Representatives and Senators with. I promise it will be put to good use!
Michael S says:
April 6, 2011 at 9:10 am
Next up “The Pickens Plan” that will use government largesse to generate a market for LNG in vehicles.
Suspect it will be the “Chevy Volt” that will get the government largess.
“Washington – President Barack Obama announced today that the U.S. government will buy only advanced technology vehicles — such as hybrids and electric plug-ins — by 2015.
The government already has doubled the number of hybrids in the 600,000-vehicle federal fleet.”
RockyRoad says:
April 6, 2011 at 9:51 am
[—–(BTW, why is it spelled “windfarm”? I don’t see the spellings “vegetablefarm” or “wheatfarm” anywhere.)]
——————————————————————————-
RockyRoad – why ‘farm’ at all – it should be wind factory. It’s all to do with ‘spin’ not the windmill type of spin but the word type. ‘s-a-wonder they didn’t go all loverly and call them wind gardens.
Cheers
Douglas
I may be missing the point here.But would it not be possible to use the power from the wind genorators to power the pumps of the hydro storage facilitys?
Holy smokes! Its a lot worse than we thought! Possibly even a travesty!
Peter Miller says: April 6, 2011 at 10:33 am
Sadly, all major political parties spout the official AGW line and bleat about the ‘need’ for renewable energy sources.—-So now the UK economy is rushing headlong into a future of brown outs and blackouts and/or hideously expensive electrical power, reliant on unreliable, expensive wind machines. –]
—————————————————————————
Peter. Yes – and even more sadly you will have to go to the bottom i.e. blackouts and deaths from coldness before things are turned around. Governments have been mesmerised by the co2 crap and so called ‘green’ crap to the point of mental paralysis. The inevitability of the ‘green thing mindset’ is to return to the stone age. – Meanwhile in China and India —-
Douglas
In the UK the high priest of wind power is Dale Vince. He’s an old hippy who lives near my local town where his company, ecotricity, is headquartered. I do hope he gets to see this report.
So it was 124 days when output was “effectively zero”. I get the feeling I just know what Chris Booker’s piece in the Sunday Telegraph is going to be. And if it is, I can’t wait to read the comments from the trolls who harass him to see how they justify the report. After all, they can hardly claim the BBC is a ‘denier’. LOL
I also feel a letter to my MP coming on, after all, he is supposed to be a policy maker.
Governments must take their heads out of the sand and out of taxpayer’s pockets. Wind power is an expensive problematic experiment that is doomed to failure.
Foreign and domestic investors in industrial projects that require a reliable, cost efficient/reasonable price energy source needed to power industry or business ventures to make them price competitive, will steer well away from the UK and any other Country, State or Provinces (Many come to mind) that don’t control energy costs. Wind power promises don’t live up to the sales marketing hype, as proven over and over again.
Wind power will guarantee is there will be insufficient electricity for their needs and at a high cost. Not an attractive prospect for end user industry’s, businesses or the average electricity consumers.
Energy salvation and energy poverty will be and are becoming the new reality with more and more frequency.
Same conclusion they reached in the early 1800’s when watergas production to be used in steam engines was pushing out windfarms at that time. The wind was far too sporadic. Either not enough or none at all especially when you really needed it.
TerryS says:
April 6, 2011 at 11:55 am
If you’re so sure of that. I challenge you to find Usage v Production figures. I’ve tried & even a friend in the generating business couldn’t find figures.
DaveE.
Ops. Moderator please see and correct mistake at bottom should read Energy STARVATION not Salvation. Thanks.
Governments must take their heads out of the sand and out of taxpayer’s pockets. Wind power is an expensive problematic experiment that is doomed to failure.
Foreign and domestic investors in industrial projects that require a reliable, cost efficient/reasonable price energy source needed to power industry or business ventures to make them price competitive, will steer well away from the UK and any other Country, State or Provinces (Many come to mind) that don’t control energy costs. Wind power promises don’t live up to the sales marketing hype, as proven over and over again.
Wind power will guarantee is there will be insufficient electricity for their needs and at a high cost. Not an attractive prospect for end user industry’s, businesses or the average electricity consumers.
Energy STARVATION and energy poverty will be and are becoming the new reality with more and more frequency.
Did you know ?
Wind farms are safe.
They don’t produce enough energy kill anyone – until the blades fall off.
Regarding the hope expressed by several commenters that the political class would have the wit to understand this information, I offer this
Via Art Horn at Pajamas Media
http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/senator-boxer-dangerously-ignorant-on-co2/
On Mar 30 Sen Boxer made a speech in the Senate that was full of breathtaking stupidity regarding “carbon” pollution. The video is available here starting at about 04:31
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/SenateSession4694
It’s a truly amazing performance!
I especially like the part with the picture of asthmatic children sucking air through a tube because of “carbon” pollution.
Re: David A. Evans.
There is little chance of obtaining that.
My confidence comes from the fact that they are a business.
They can buy electricity at £x per MW
They can sell electricity at £y per MW
If £y is greater than £x then they will not use the electricity they generate. They will instead buy anything they need from the grid since this generates the most profit.
Due to the
subsidiesfeed in tariffs £y is currently greater than £x so they will not use their own energy.In response to the Trust report, here is part of the official reply from the self-styled representative body, ‘Scottish Renewables’, “… the voice of the renewable energy industry in Scotland, promoting a win-win vision to harness Scotland’s immense natural resources to enrich our economy, communities and environment.”
Jenny Hogan, Director of Policy for Scottish Renewables, said:
“Yet again the John Muir Trust has commissioned an anti-wind farm campaigner to produce a report about UK onshore wind energy output.
“We have no confidence in these unofficial figures. Last time Stuart Young completed research on wind farm output an independent analysis showed serious discrepancies. He claimed the load factor for wind for the period of November 2009 to November 2010 was 22 per cent, however GL Garrad Hassan, an independent consultancy firm, found on average it was in fact 24.8 per cent. We recognise this is lower than the 30 per cent average load factor, however this was anticipated as it had been an exceptionally calm year. No form of electricity works at 100 per cent capacity 100 per cent of the time.”
“Industry, government and regulators all agree that a growing mix of renewables on the system is the answer to affordable, secure, sustainable energy.
“Scotland is a world leader in renewable energy and with such strong political and public will to support the industry we have attracted major global companies such as Mitsubishi, Gamesa and more recently Doosan who are all investing millions of pounds in this country, creating thousands of new jobs, bringing industry intelligence and securing the massive benefits this sector will bring for many generations to come. Companies like these do not invest in technologies that don’t work.”
Note to Ms. Hogan: I agree. Companies like these do indeed choose to invest (here) in Scotland, and elsewhere throughout the UK, but not because their products offer a stable, reliable, cost-effective or desirable form of electricity production. Nope. It’s because the UK and all devolved national governments actively court them with open arms and guaranteed tax-payer’s £billions, because it fits the pervasive ‘green’ narrative, now conveniently adopted as some sort of proud world-leading initiative, ultimately just in the nick of time to save us all from imminent climatic disaster and it strengthens the ever-increasing yolk between government dictat and individual freedoms.
http://www.scottishrenewables.com/news/statement-john-muir-trust-analysis-UK-wind-power-/
http://www.scottishrenewables.com/news/statement-john-muir-trust-analysis-UK-wind-power-/
I vaguely remember that wind turbines require conventional power to turn the blades when there is not enough wind or something like that.
Maybe this is where Chris Huhne’s 100,000 green jobs will be – the wind turbines will be connected to a network of exercise bikes with heavy-duty dynamos, with each bike being pedalled by one of those lucky 100,000 ‘green’ employees.
Dave Wendt says:
April 6, 2011 at 1:24 pm
Regarding the hope expressed by several commenters that the political class would have the wit to understand this information, I offer this
Via Art Horn at Pajamas Media ……………………
==================================================
Thanks Dave, but I just can’t anymore. The fact that Mz. Boxer is a stunningly stupid person should be known to all Americans by now. And the fact that Californians continues to inflict that mass of stupidity caused morass on the rest of the nation shouldn’t be lost either. And she’s not the only massively stupid person they inflict upon us. What does it say towards the average Cali voter? I’ve watched in disbelief at the amazing stupidity of our politicians and leaders for too long. I’m no longer disgusted with their willful ignorance, but rather disgusted by many of my fellow countrymen and women. It is of small comfort to know that other nations are plagued with the same massive stupidity of allowing the ignorant to lead the nations of this world.
And, it isn’t just coming from one party either. Recently, the repubs have moved to overturn the law banning production of the incandescent light bulbs. That’s great. Perhaps they didn’t notice the last incandescent light bulb production plant in the U.S. closed already. Any production plant left in the U.S. would be fitted for CFLs or LED’s. So, if they were to overturn the law, this would ensure any incandescent light bulb purchased would be produced over seas.—–to the continued detriment of U.S. industry and trade balance.
I think they’re trying to out-stupid the other party. But, I don’t think they’re dumb enough to pull it off. But, I also know that in the past, I’ve often misjudged their depths of stupidity, so I could be wrong again.