The global temperature has fallen .653°C (from +0.554 in March 2010 to -0.099 in March 2011) in just one year. That’s a magnitude nearly equivalent to the agreed upon global warming signal agreed upon by the IPCC. It is quite a sharp drop.
According to the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global surface temperature increased by 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) during the 20th century
Comments from Dr. Roy Spencer: (plus graph)
(Graph by Anthony Watts, data and commentary from Dr. Spencer/UAH)
UAH Temperature Update for March, 2011: Cooler Still -0.10 deg. C
La Nina Coolness Persists
The global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for March 2011 fell to -0.10 deg. C, with cooling in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheric extratropics, while the tropics stayed about the same as last month. (I’m on the road in Virgina, so the temperature graph will not be updated until I return on Thursday.)
April 5th, 2011
YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2010 01 0.542 0.675 0.410 0.635
2010 02 0.510 0.553 0.466 0.759
2010 03 0.554 0.665 0.443 0.721
2010 04 0.400 0.606 0.193 0.633
2010 05 0.454 0.642 0.265 0.706
2010 06 0.385 0.482 0.287 0.485
2010 07 0.419 0.558 0.280 0.370
2010 08 0.441 0.579 0.304 0.321
2010 09 0.477 0.410 0.545 0.237
2010 10 0.306 0.257 0.356 0.106
2010 11 0.273 0.372 0.173 -0.117
2010 12 0.181 0.217 0.145 -0.222
2011 01 -0.010 -0.055 0.036 -0.372
2011 02 -0.020 -0.042 0.002 -0.348
2011 03 -0.099 -0.073 -0.126 -0.345
Hmm …: Maybe we should call ourselves “climate changedefiers“!? I.e., we know what the alarmists’ claims are but we dismiss (defy) them. What say you all?
More than couple of months below -0.25 might start to be interesting, but it’s such a noisy series that drawing much of a conclusion from month to month is difficult (even if it is slightly surprising to see the continuing downward trend)
Which means that once the warmists finish massaging the numbers, this will still be one of the warmest years on record.
We’re doomed, DOOMED !!!
or not…
“Correct me if I’m wrong (and I may be) but isn’t this exactly where we would expect to detect global warming first?”
If that had been what was predicted to be detected first, then boy howdy, would it carry a lot of weight. Except, it isn’t. We were supposed to see all kinds of Biblical class catastrophes. Instead, you had Calamity James Hanson heading up the propaganda war. I haven’t looked at your story yet, but don’t you wish that you had your credibility back?
Alarmists on Government Payroll should confine to their own time their incessant shilling for ‘Immediate Massive Statism as the Only Solution to the Obvious Catastrophe Just Around the Corner’.
“It really is appalling that you can’t or won’t learn the simplest basics of statistics. Comparing noise with trend is stupid – no other way to describe it.”
Care to elaborate Stevo?
@Latitude says:
April 5, 2011 at 9:49 am
Are you sure they included ground cover back then? I thought there was some deal where they only recorded sea ice. I mean, there is no damned ice at all in March 1981, which seems wrong.
Hi Stevo
How do you define noise in relation to this graph and how do you decide when your ‘noise’ has become part of a new trend or step change?
Cheers
Michael
I think we’ll have to thank Kim Jong Il for global cooling after all – if I am reading the latest headlines correctly 🙂
And as I normally link at this time, for those interested, I’ve posted the Preliminary March 2011 SST anomalies:
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2011/03/29/really-preliminary-march-2011-sst-anomaly-update/
Please note the new home at WordPress.
Latitude says:
April 5, 2011 at 9:49 am
> …….and most of the Northern hemisphere is still covered in ice and snow
> http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=03&fd=28&fy=1981&sm=03&sd=28&sy=2011
Check the caption: Historic snow cover data not displayed on these images. … Snow cover data is displayed only for most recent dates.
Snow cover imagery showed up around 2006.
Air temperature down – sea temperature down – solar activity down…
but, CO2 levels are still rising??? The IPCC cabal of cargo-cult climate scientists must be having apoplexy… :-))
stevo says: “It really is appalling that you can’t or won’t learn the simplest basics of statistics. Comparing noise with trend is stupid – no other way to describe it.”
What noise are you talking about? The wide year to year variations resulting from ENSO are not noise. ENSO is a natural process that helps to reduce temperature difference between the tropics and the poles.
HenryP says:
April 5, 2011 at 9:53 am
I got some interesting results from Marion Island…….
May be OT, but nevertheless very interesting.
Does anyone know of any other isolated stations (e.g. Falklands, Macquarie Island) with relatively long records with raw (unadjusted) data available?
I’m sure that honest analysis of data unaffected by UHI, land use changes or other human induced impacts will greatly enhance our understanding of global temperature variations in recent years.
Perhaps such a study has already been undertaken, in which case could someone point me in the right direction.
Ric Werme says:
April 5, 2011 at 12:49 pm
Check the caption: Historic snow cover data not displayed on these images. … Snow cover data is displayed only for most recent dates.
===================================================
nope, don’t care
I only looked at the one on the right. Didn’t say a thing about the one on the left.
” …….and most of the Northern hemisphere is still covered in ice and snow”
and it is…………..
I borrowed that link from Steven, that’s the way it is…………
R. Gates says:
April 5, 2011 at 11:26 am
Interesting update…even mentioning such short term ENSO ups and downs in the context of longer term global warming seems like talking about apples and oranges. Such declines are to be expected when transitioning from a decent El Nino to La Nina.
You missed the point. The claimed range of warming was spanned in one year. This indicates that the *ALARMING* warming is not larger than natural variations in the system.
stevo:
It is really appalling that you can’t or won’t learn the basics of statistics. One of those basics is that simple linear trends mean nothing when the data exhibit cyclical, or chaotic, characteristics. Furthermore, when applying statistical methods to data with noise, you have to have a priori knowledge of what that noise is. Doing so without such knowledge is stupid – no other way to describe it.
Mark
I think we could safely assume that unless there is another rise in global temperatures like 2010-2009, this year, global warming is over is essentially over. H/T to Kelly O’Day
http://processtrends.com/images/RClimate_UAH_Ch5_latest.png
@R Gates.
As always.
Yeah but…
No but….
Yeah but, No but, Yeah but, No but, Yeah but, No but, Yeah but…
Choose some baseline we can examine, and stick with it. Do not change when YOUR baseline does not show what YOU want.
So please. Choose one baseline method of calculating what YOU want to prove.
Do Not attack every contrary view until you tell us which one you will stick with.
Actually, the drop from 1998 is much larger, plunging us into a veritable ice age as we all remember.
Here you can compare nh ice 2006 with current looks similar snow, but the actual ice appears to much thicker and extensive now. However cryosphere today with Serreze at NDCD always manage to make the graphs looks worse every year hahahah
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=03&fd=28&fy=2006&sm=03&sd=28&sy=2011
stevo says:
It really is appalling that you can’t or won’t learn the simplest basics of statistics. Comparing noise with trend is stupid – no other way to describe it.
====================
But the funny thing is that during the period from 1979-1997, the satellites showed nothing but NOISE in temperature trends.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1979/to:1997/plot/uah/from:1979/to:1997
And for 40 years from 1940 to 1978 the Land based thermometers showed nothing but NOISE
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:19940/to:1978/plot/gistemp/from:1940/to:1978
So we all agree that there was an enormous El Nino in 1998, caused by the oceans releasing a tremendous amount of heat. But since then, nothing has happened.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1998/plot/uah/from:1998
Is that the noise you are referring to? One noisy year. Yes, the Alarmist make quite a bit of noise about that one event in one year, wouldn’t you say?
Ot but there is one very basic tool missing on this site that is real time global temperatures UHA satellite graph and other temperature graphs silimalr to ice, solar pages
Huh. Based on the real low drop last month, I thought that we were done going down, at least for a while.
Are the oceans still releasing heat? Are we going to see this continuing in April? Is there anyone with knowledge making an educated prediction either way?