Since BEST claims they will work to take UHI into consideration, it seems worthwhile to highlight this new paper. Guess who’s a co-author? Phil Jones of UEA’s CRU.
From Dr. Roger Pielke Sr.:
New Paper “Decadal Variations In The Nocturnal Heat Island Of London” By Wilby Et Al 2011
There is a new paper that adds significantly to our understanding of the urban heat island, and thus its role on long-term surface temperature records. The new paper is
Robert L. Wilby,Philip D. Jones and David H. Lister: Decadal Variations In The Nocturnal Heat Island Of London. Weather March 2011. DOI: 10.1002/wea.679
The abstract reads
“Our review of the long-term behaviour of London’s UHI provides a salutary reminder that the appearance and disappearance of trends in environmental data can depend very much on the segment of data analysed. Nonetheless, we can confirm – using both daily and monthly temperature records – that the summer nUHI did intensify between the late 1950s/early 1960s and the 1980s. This period coincided with an abrupt increase in the frequency of summer anticyclonic weather. There is also evidence of a slight rise in the annual number of intense heat-island events that can be linked to more persistent anticylonic weather systems at that time. A weak decline in summer nUHI since the 1980s coincides with a rise in the frequency of cyclonic weather. Since 1931, the summer nUHI has risen slightly, but not significantly. The overall annual mean nUHI does, however, show a weak but significant (p<0.05) rise when the monthly SJP record is compared to that of WIS.”
Their concluding remarks read
Our review of the long-term behaviour of London’s UHI provides a salutary reminder that the appearance and disappearance of trends in environmental data can depend very much on the segment of data analysed.
Nonetheless, we can confirm – using both daily and monthly temperature records – that the summer nUHI did intensify between the late 1950s/early 1960s and the 1980s. This period coincided with an abrupt increase in the frequency of summer anticyclonic weather. There is also evidence of a slight rise in the annual number of intense heat-island events that can be linked to more persistent anticylonic weather systems at that time. A weak decline in summer nUHI since the 1980s coincides with a rise in the frequency of cyclonic weather. Since 1931, the summer nUHI has risen slightly, but not significantly. The overall annual mean nUHI does, however, show a weak but significant (p<0.05) rise when the monthly SJP record is compared to that of WIS.
Over the 50-year daily record, less than half of the variance in the summer-mean nUHI signal is explained by synoptic weather patterns. This could be due to a number of factors. The weather types describe conditions across the British Isles generally, rather than for southeast England specifically. The conditions experienced within a given weather class are known to vary from day to day. There have also been marked changes in regional air quality in the wake of the notorious winter ‘smogs’ of the 1950s and the summer stubble burning
of the 1970s and 1980s. Other time-dependent factors (such as artificial heat sources, building albedo, thermal mass, sky-view factors, surface roughness, and vegetated area) may be locally important (McGregor et al., 2006). Furthermore, censuses show that the population of Greater London peaked in 1939 then fell until 1991 and has since risen again.”
This paper is an important new addition to the literature on multi-decadal surface temperature trends.
==============================================================
Here’s the first page of the article from Wiley publishing:
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Sorry, I skimmed this one. There are some scientists who do not deserve to be read, regardless of which side of the debate a particular paper may appear to support. Jones is by now such a completely political operator that nothing he writes could be taken at face value.
I live on the south coast of England and I’m an avid gardener, I like to grow food for my family. Our climate is generally quite benign but, on cool evenings, I look around and wish that I could capture all of the waste heat I see (via the condensation) being vented from every house in my immediate vicinity.
People here use their gas boilers to heat water for domestic use, the same boiler also does double duty in heating the house. I don’t know how much of the heat generated by the gas flames is transferred to the house or hot water system, but I do know that an awful lot is simply vented to the atmosphere.
If I could harness that waste heat I’d be able to start seeds germinating in my poly-tunnel and greenhouse in January!
Most houses in England are now heated by gas; how much cognisance has been taken of this fact when considering how much heat is pumped into the atmosphere above a densely populated city?
Very little, I suspect.
Oh, and all of that gas which is burned is CO2-intensive!
wayne says:
April 2, 2011 at 1:59 pm
“The bottom line is this, until they seperate the seasons, the mid-spring to mid-fall and the mid-fall to mid-spring, and, keep seperate the maximum daytime records from the minimum nightime records, there is simply no hope on really seeing what the climate is doing. At least that is what the last sixteen months of digging deep into climate science has taught me. Maybe they just need a very good scientific programmer? Maybe they just don’t know how to program that. Huh? There are still some around.”
Amen, Brother, Amen! Yeah, you would think Climate Science cannot afford computers for data. Billions for supercomputers for simulations but pennies for data recording. I think it is still standard practice to record a daily temperature as an average of a daytime and a nighttime temperature. DUH!
We need a record of daily highs, a record of daily lows, a record of nightly lows, a record of nightly minimums, and several more things. But these records cannot be extracted from anyone’s temperature records because they did not keep them.
The entire enterprise known as Climate Science is erected on a foundation of temperature measurements that are worthless. It is time to start over. Climate scientists and sceptics should work together to create a new temperature measurement regime that both can approve. Then maybe in fifty years we will have a climate science that is worth its name.
Lady Life Grows says:
April 2, 2011 at 11:22 am
“It is a lot of fun to sneer at idiots and you wonderkinder here do a magnificent job of it and I laugh my head off at your comments. But human progress is not really made by slamming people.”
What an interesting choice of words. I have not slammed Jones. But I do want to see him and his little friends in the slammer. The scales of justice do not automatically reposition. Someone has to pay.
If warmists soon can have their way
A new future will be here to stay
No cars, no trains, no aeroplanes
They really have bollsh!t for brains…
Does anyone know who (D or R) invited Muller, in preference to a number of others with long, broad experience on the data issues (e.g., Watts, DAleo, Pielke Sr., Klotzbach…)
Is this the same Phil Jones that lied before?…………….
Fool me once…………..
Stephen Brown @ur momisugly April 2, 2011 at 2:48 pm
The quantity of heat lost is a function of the efficiency of the boilers, which might be as low as 50% seasonally, or as high as 96%; and, of the size and structure of the house.
The exhaust can contain as much as 10-12% CO2, so both the heat and the CO2 could be useful in your poly-tunnel and greenhouse. However, that exhaust can also contain some CO (~50 ppm if combustion is proper and up to several hundred ppm if the combustion system is not adjusted properly). Many of the plants you might be raising would be highly sensitive to that CO, so extreme care would be required if the exhaust were introduced directly into the plant environment. Also, the condensed water from the exhaust is acidic, with a ph of ~4.
Lady Life …
we all screw up ??? really … have you ever purposely lied and hidden data on your job ? because everyone doesn’t lie and hide data on the job … Jones did not “screw up”, he lied and obstructed science and legal information requests …
funny thing about bashing … since when is describing a criminals behavior bashing ?
All this concern about a once or twice a day temperature reading. What is needed is a measure of the energy received over a day. One way, which isn’t great, but is far better than the current method, would be to measure the temperature every minute over a day. Then you integrate the area under the curve and you have a measurement that has some value.
The thermal map is interesting in that I initially could not make sense of the heat distribution. Hyde Park, Regents Park and Blackheath show up as hotter than surrounding roads and buildings, while Richmond park has both hottest and coldest temps with a 14C difference between the top and bottom of the park.
On closer inspection these temperature extremes can be explained by the nature of these open spaces. The warmest parts are short grass and the coolest are either trees or water. it is possible to see the outline of the Serpantine and the woods next to it in Hyde Park. The dark areas in Richmond are trees. In addition other wooded areas are clearly defined, such as Dulwich Woods. Looking closer still the green just on the north side of Dulwich Woods is a golf course, with short grass, but it is not hot. However there is a hot spot just above the golf course which are cricket pitches. Looking at Google Earth you can see the that the golf course is watered more than the cricket pitches which will make it cooler.
What is also interesting is that short dry grass will have a higher albedo than trees or water and yet albedo appears to play no part in these temperature differences. Further more the darkest patches in this image are either water or trees.
What I don’t understand is the relatively cool colour of the City of London and the dark band at bottom right. This area is a west facing ridge made up of farm land and woods, and somewhere in the dark blue is the small town of Swanley.
Sorry. correction to previous post.
“This area is a west facing ridge made up of farm land….”
Should be “This area is an East facing ridge…”
Sam Hall says:
April 2, 2011 at 4:22 pm
“All this concern about a once or twice a day temperature reading. What is needed is a measure of the energy received over a day. One way, which isn’t great, but is far better than the current method, would be to measure the temperature every minute over a day. Then you integrate the area under the curve and you have a measurement that has some value.”
Yes, we need really sophisticated measures, not just temperatures. But then there would be no question that there is no global warming, aside from UHI and such, and what would our little climate buddies do for grant money? They cannot do science. However, no one should ever forget that they totally botched the temperature record and continue do so.
My feeling is if a journal article is authored, co-authored by one of the team it really can not be accepted as legitimate until it has been throughly vetted by non-team members and maybe 3-5 years have passed without a refutation.
Stephen Skinner says:
April 2, 2011 at 4:29 pm
“The thermal map is interesting in that I initially could not make sense of the heat distribution. Hyde Park, Regents Park and Blackheath show up as hotter than surrounding roads and buildings, while Richmond park has both hottest and coldest temps with a 14C difference between the top and bottom of the park.”
Stephen, please, climate scientists can work with only one temperature at a time. No doubt they will average the temperatures you identify. /sarc off
Seriously, it is wonderful to hear from a man who loves reality. Your report makes it quite clear that Jones’ work could not do the area justice. This is true generally of temperature data produced by climate scientists. They must create ABSTRACTIONS at a huge distance from the reality before they can reach the desired results. Consequently, their temperature record is totally wimpy and inadequate to the task.
As regards UHI, would someone please go to St. Louis, MO, the old city not the newer suburbs, and do a UHI study there. A person who cannot feel the pain of the UHI during warm months and the comfort of UHI during the cold months is stone cold dead. We are talking in excess of ten degrees between the old city, to Skinker in the West, and the open areas, like Wild Horse Creek Road in West County.
@netdr2
I have seen the temp go from 90 degrees at the eastern edge of the Dallas sprawl, 102 downtown, and back to 90 going out of the sprawl on the north side.
Following on from Mr Skinner’s observations, I
focused on the big hot-spot (top right) which
turns out to be green fields in the Little Heath area. I suspect the date (16 Sept)was chosen to minimise the appearance of UHI.
@ur momisugly Theo Goodwin
Seems you got my point. You must have a good logical mind to see that, and why.
Phil Jones is already totally misunderstanding UHI itself. It has two causes and two different effects and he can’t seem to see it, once again. I doubt if BEST will either. Of course, they probably never stop to think.
The really big anomalies are in the arctic, as predicted by climate models. Is this due to UHI?
The two thermal images of England here:-
http://www.seedgen.com/thermallondon/space.htm
show that UHI is less apparent on warm days.
I wont trust any paper if there is name P. Jones, M. Mann or G. Smith if theyll get honest reputation back, they start cheating otherways. Bad science and now BOOM this is the truth. HAH
BillD says:
April 2, 2011 at 5:21 pm
The really big anomalies are in the arctic, as predicted by climate models. Is this due to UHI?
================================================
Bill, the climate computer games predicted both poles.
BillD says:
April 2, 2011 at 5:21 pm
How many temperature sensors are in true rural areas of the Arctic? They’re all near inhabited areas. If you measure the temperature 10 ft away from a campfire both before and after the fire is lit, do you expect to see a bigger change in temp when it starts at 35 C or at -35 C before the fire is started?
The point is, a running car/truck 10 ft away from a thermometer on a hot summer day has a much smaller impact than on a thermometer in a small town in far northern Canada in the middle of the winter.
-Scott
I am trying hard to figure out something of value to civilization to be had from these global climate studies.
The biggest problem they have is that their models cannot get a single seasons forecast right. There is little value there.
As for UHI affected urban centers vs rural, there is some merit in knowing how much temperatures will drop in the cities (in winter), when the greens who use the GCM output to justify outlawing all forms of heating achieve thier goals.
That difference between urban and rural winter temps is the amount of jeapordy the general population will be thrown in.
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS! EVEN ANTHONY WATTS APPEARS TO RELUCTANTLY ADMIT THIS. “…the mean temperature has no statistically significant trend difference that is dependent of siting quality…” – Anthony Watts – http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/31/clarification-on-best-submitted-to-the-house/#more-36957
Anthony did find a significant trend in nighttime lows which have been getting warmer in cities, and in daytime highs, which amazingly seem to have been maintaining their cool better than the rural sites. Anthony’s study was for the US so the story might be different for other parts of the world, but it seems unlikely. It is also still possible that there has been some kind of trick pulled on the temperature record. But some say the satellites are consistent with the ground records and rule out any more than slight UHI effects on the trend. It’s important to realize that I’m not saying there is no UHI. I’m only saying there was just about as much UHI in cities of the past, and to the extent UHI has increased, it hasn’t increased enough to make much difference.