Steve McIntyre uncovers another hockey stick trick – where are the academic cops?

NOTE: since this is clearly an important finding with far reaching implications, this will be a “top post” at WUWT for the next couple of days. I urge other bloggers to spread the word.  – Anthony

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Just when you think the bottom of the Hockey Stick rabbit hole has been reached, Steve McIntyre finds yet more evidence of misconduct by the Team.

The research was from Briffa and Osborn (1999) published in Science magazine and purported to show the consistency of the reconstruction of past climate using tree rings with other reconstructions including the Mann Hockey Stick. But the trick was exposed in the Climategate dossier, which also included code segments and datasets.

In the next picture, Steve shows what Briffa and Osborn did – not only did they truncate their reconstruction to hide a steep decline in the late 20th Century but also a substantial early segment from 1402-1550:

As I’ve written elsewhere, this sort of truncation can be characterized as research misconduct – specifically falsification. But where are the academic cops? Any comment from Science magazine?

Steve also discusses the code underlying the plot and you can see how the truncation is a clear deliberate choice – not something that falls out of poorly understood analysis or poor programming.

In the comments, Kip Hansen posts the following:

In reference to Mann’s Trick….obliquely, yesterday’s Supreme Court ruling on Zicam (a homeopathic nasal spray) ruled in part:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/23/health/23bizcourt.html?_r=1&hpw

The Supreme Court has said that companies may be sued under the securities law for making statements that omit material information, and it has defined material information as the sort of thing that reasonable investors would believe significantly alters the ‘total mix’ of available information.

Justice Sonia Sotomayor, writing for the court on Tuesday, roundly rejected Matrixx’s proposal that information can be material only if it meets standards of statistical significance.

‘Given that medical professionals and regulators act on the basis of evidence of causation that is not statistically significant,’ she wrote, ‘it stands to reason that in certain cases reasonable investors would as well.’

Thus, hiding or omitting information, even if one feels it is ‘erroneous’ or ‘outlying’ (or whatever they claim) is still possibly fraudulent ( or in this case, scientifically improper) if it would ‘add to the total mix of available information’. Statistical significance is not to be the deciding factor.

In the case of Briffa and Osborn, no statistical fig leaf was applied that justified the truncation of data, so far as I can see.

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Policyguy
March 24, 2011 7:24 pm

Let’s face it, the Team, in this case Mann, Jones and Briffa, purported to be tree rings experts able to show global warming. That’s the reason their “science” was funded. To have been honest and objective would have cut their gravy train. As Steve points out, this practice of writing code to specifically delete certain data sets is misleading and deceitful and was apparently done with the intention to mislead.
How much more is in the climategate release?
Please also note that the 225 voters (to date) only gave this post 2 1/2 stars. Is that congruent to the high post listing, or are there other factors at play in this voting?

March 24, 2011 7:49 pm

“Absolutely. But given the data available, when are you actually going to show up at the movie? It’s a game of Chinese whispers so for all you know all the data may be wrong. But it’s your job to make a guess as to when to show up. ”
Science doesn’t work like that. Either the method gives a verifiable answer or it doesn’t. Where it doesn’t, the assumptions and confidences MUST be stated because thats part of the result and what makes it science.

J. Felton
March 24, 2011 7:59 pm

John A Fleming says
“What makes this significant, is that these Mannian graphs show up everywhere. In the March 2011 issue of SciAm, Julian Sachs, et. al., who nd-of-rain”> document their measurements over time of the latitude location of the ITCZ rainfall bands, rather than plot their data, they just copy in Mann’s latest version. Apparently, the ITCZ location is not a good proxy for temperature, yet.”
Scientific American has now removed the graph and cut half the article after numerous commenters pointed out the copied hockey stick, plus the inaccuracy of the study. No reason, no excuse.
I stopped paying attention to them after the Bjorn Lomborg fiasco. They should be called Pseudoscientific American.

March 24, 2011 8:02 pm

Rob writes : “It’s a matter of trying to identify that data that is a response to temperature rather than other stimuli.”
…but doesn’t appreciate this is precisely what confirmation bias is.

Mescalero
March 24, 2011 8:08 pm

Although he doesn’t come out and say it, Steve McIntyre is pointing the accusing finger at a technical peer review process that is failing miserably. The kinds of things he has been digging up ordinarily wouldn’t come up during the normal 45 or so day technical peer review of a submitted paper. Steve goes far deeper than that, and his revelations amount to the kind of peer review my professors at UC Berkeley warned me about back in the early 1970’s — that’s why they demanded total transparency of data, analysis codes and analyses in my PhD thesis.
Will the editors of Science magazine take these revelations seriously? Don’t count on it — they didn’t when it was shown that the infamous Oreskes article on “global warming consensus” in the December, 2004 issue of Science could not be replicated by independent investigators, myself included. As a member of AAAS, I’m getting sick and tired of seeing this organization demanding more of the peer review process when it comes to medical research, but, at the same time, not demanding the same for climate research.

Robert Kral
March 24, 2011 8:08 pm

In my field, drug development, it’s quite possible to go to jail for pulling this kind of stunt. At the very least you’d be out of a job and subject to all kinds of litigation. I am afraid the people at Science and Nature have completely lost their sense of objectivity and professional rigor. When the “narrative” becomes more important than the facts, things go sour in a hurry.

March 24, 2011 8:10 pm

[…] And now another climategate followup…. Steve McIntyre uncovers another hockey stick trick – where are the academic cops? | Watts Up With That?: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/24/steve-mcintyre-uncovers-another-trick/#comment-628210 […]

jeb
March 24, 2011 8:11 pm

Quote
Queen1 says:
March 24, 2011 at 6:12 pm
Jeremy at 1:10: your characterization of the pharma industry is insulting and wrong. Feel free not to avail yourself of modern medicine, but keep your opinions about other-than-climate-science to yourself.
End quote
I apologize for the OT response but outrage requires it.
The “pharma industry” is notorious for:
a. funding research which is designed to provide desired results
b. cherry-picking the data for positive results and eliminating that which shows serious/lethal side effects
c. performing the typical musical chairs game of industry-regulatory agency job swaps, e.g., bank industry-Dept of Treasury
d. spending billions to influence legislation, e.g., health care reform w/Baucus as head of the subcommittee
e. and to my mind the most infuriating: medicines designed to treat symptoms rather than to cure, this to maintain a stable market
As another tidbit, do a search for FDA, Rumsfeld, aspartame
jeb

OssQss
March 24, 2011 8:16 pm

The question remains as to where we find the pure energy, that impacts nothing, that is desired by everyone. Is it not? 🙂

March 24, 2011 8:25 pm

but also a substantial early segment from 1402-1550
How can these guys looks themselves in the mirror? Do they avoid eye contact when shaving?

Alan McIntire
March 24, 2011 8:30 pm

http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Climategate
“Much of the furor is over the scientists’ use of the word “trick,” such as when one of the scientists wrote: “I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (i.e. from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline.” While the denialists see this as some sort of conspiracy, it is really a mathematical way of dealing with a problem (a mathematical “trick”) and reflects scientists interacting with each other.”
Edward Thorpe of “Beat The Dealer” fame described a “mathematical trick” of cheating blackjack dealers. Cheaters would peek at the top card. If the card helped the dealer or hurt the player, the dealer would honestly deal out the card. If the top card hurt the dealer or helped the player, the cheating blackjack dealer would hold back the top card and deal a second card. The net result was dishonest dealers winning more than normal chance.
Mann’s mathematical trick is exactly equivalent to dishonest dealers withholding bad cards (data) and dealing seconds

Rob Z
March 24, 2011 8:55 pm

Ian says:
March 24, 2011 at 12:46 pm
Unfortunately no one much is really listening or interested in this anymore. MSM certainly have no interest which means the mass of people don’t know and/or don’t care. S[t]eve McIntyre seems to be becoming obsessive about this which is unfortunate.
Ian, I think you’re missing the point. Mike Mann proclaimed “regret” that his hockey stick had become the iconic symbol of the climate debate. More like he was irritated that he was being blamed for coming up with the “decline”. Perhaps there is some truth to Mann’s vehement protestations at being the instigator of the decline. What SuperMac has done is root out the initial instigators. I find it amazing that no one on “The Team” has broken ranks with a tell all book entitled, “How We Tried to Screw the World and Why”. Although, I think it might be coming just in time for Christmas.
With regard to your “obsessive” comment. Don’t confuse that with thoroughness and completeness. Rest assured that if SuperMac suddenly finds out that the decline hide was a result of a careless typo in a computer program, you’ll hear it from him first.

Regg
March 24, 2011 8:59 pm

Steve.. I can’t believe you’re still spinning that news. The method is called removing outliers. Basic stuff, for a mathematician or statistician, i’m not impressed.
REPLY: You really have no idea what you are talking about do you? Datapoints are one thing, entire decades and centuries worth of data are something else altogether.
Read the section on exclusion
“Deletion of outlier data is a controversial practice frowned on by many scientists and science instructors; while mathematical criteria provide an objective and quantitative method for data rejection, they do not make the practice more scientifically or methodologically sound, especially in small sets or where a normal distribution cannot be assumed
In regression problems, an alternative approach may be to only exclude points which exhibit a large degree of influence on the parameters, using a measure such as Cook’s distance.[11]
If a data point (or points) is excluded from the data analysis, this should be clearly stated on any subsequent report.”
If you can demonstrate that they have a document basis, such as Grubbs’ test for outliers, you might have an argument, as it stands you are just blowing noxious gas – Anthony

Roger Carr
March 24, 2011 9:02 pm

Dan Lee responds (March 24, 2011 at 9:26 am) to Jenn Oates:
Just remind your students that they are witnessing history being made. …
A beautiful comment, Dan, with a crystal clarity and display of wisdom. My respects, sir.

ew-3
March 24, 2011 9:04 pm

“Jenn Oates says:
March 24, 2011 at 9:02 am
And yet still my students bring in their weekly science articles–ever more and more shrill–that proclaim that the world is coming to an end because it’s warming. No matter how many times I refute it they just don’t believe it because they don’t read it on yahoo news.”
Spot on. There is a large chunk of the population that is media driven. Yahoo is part of that media. Just as Wikipedia is. The idea of honest rational debate does not fit into this situation. We need to change the politics first.

Regg
March 24, 2011 9:09 pm

To complete my previous post… Removing outliers, is exactly what Ross McKitrick suggested to do to straighten the hockey stick in his analysis in ”A TALE OF DUE DILIGENCE”.
So again, it’s not new and came from a well known statistician.

John Crane
March 24, 2011 9:13 pm

While Steve McIntyre and a multitude of others are doing tireless work without the massive funding and exposure that the Believers enjoy, I feel it incumbent that the more erudite and articulate among you do as much as you can to get the message outside the blogosphere and into the arenas that have the greater effect. As great a venue for communication as it is, you are largely preaching to the choir.
This scam is not the first one perpetrated by this same ideological ilk. CFC, silicone implants, asbestos, second-hand smoke, chromium 6 and others where achieved by the same processes. Cook the books, toss out tons of questionable pal-reviewed papers, do some judge shopping throw in a liberal dash of anecdotal, heart rending fluff to stay atop the moral high horse and lo and behold with a free pass from a mass media that votes and donates 90% your way, your rich, famous and a hero in the weeping eyes of the guilt-ridden festering mass of anthro-apologists. All of this has given them whatever confidence they needed to not give up. Let alone the penalty incurred when this house of cards collapses (but then the public and the media has such short attention spans).
Our good friend John Coleman proposed class action lawsuits. While the mass-media had no trouble at all ignoring Climategate and anything else that questions the Belief, a litigation that forced the principles to put up or shut up might force their hand. Meanwhile the rest of you that have credentials and the abilities to convey rational and civil discourse to the public at large need to hit all of the MSM outlets that allow comment in as large of numbers as possible.
Oh. we also need leadership and organization.

philincalifornia
March 24, 2011 9:24 pm

jeb says:
March 24, 2011 at 8:11 pm
Yes, jeb at 8:11 pm: your characterization of the pharma industry is insulting, wrong and also clueless.
You’re posting on a blog that has real scientists contributing, from all disciplines.
Your stupid, flippant comments are, well ………. stupid and flippant.
If the principle cadre of climate “scientists”, and we all know who they are, had been audited by the FDA, they would not be in business now. Not even close. If they continued to practice their s**t, as they have, they would probably be looking at some serious repercussions under FDA scrutiny.
I’m guessing that you firmly believe that the plot of the movie “The Constant Gardener” is somehow connected with reality ??
….. and the GD Searle, aspartame, Rumsfeld thing, that was 1980-ish. I was there (literally), and aspartame is still on the market. You think the FDA is conspiring with Donald Rumsfeld in 2011 ??
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aspartame

Ronan
March 24, 2011 10:29 pm

Erm…passing aside the issue of whether or not this is bad practice (full disclosure: it seems sensible to me, and what surprises me, actually, is that any of the data series was left in at all; were I in Briffa’s place, I would have probably ended up removing the entire series due to the possibility that its intersection with the rest of the tree series was just a coincidence, and made a note to that effect in the paper. If you disagree with me and want to say so, by all means go ahead, but do me the courtesy of responding to the rest of my post, as well), am I the only one who’s really curious about WHY, exactly, this particular tree series is behaving in such a weird way? I mean…That’s really quite bizarre. I do note that the proxy temperature derived from it appears to nosedive during warmer periods (that is, now-ish and towards the tail end of the MWP), which might or might not be telling; perhaps warm periods are associated with an odd shift in precipitation patterns in the area? Is there any way to check that (historical records, ideally, but if that’s not an option surely there must be some other proxy for rainfall available).

John Whitman
March 24, 2011 10:46 pm

Rob Honeycutt says:
March 24, 2011 at 5:15 pm
“Over-the-top reactions like this [ suggesting conspiracy and academic misconduct over the tiniest of details in the long run undermine your position.”
– – – – – – – –
Rob Honeycutt,
By your own above statement, I see that your premise is:

[my words for your premise] It just does not matter what the group of scientists associated with the iconic graph did in preparing it for the IPCC assessment report because you think those scientist’s ends and the IPCC’s ends are ‘a priori’ true. So, by your premise, those posited truths entirely justify the means used by the scientists to manage the data to conform with their ‘a priori’ truth.

That kind of premise is a consequent of the concepts of the failed ethics of the non-rational philosophy of pragmatism. Also, is it a coincidence that your kind of premise is consistently included in discussion about the ideology called PNS?
John

March 24, 2011 11:37 pm

[…] Your Ad Here Steve McIntyre uncovers another hockey stick trick – where are the academic cops? | Watts Up W… I wonder if this is why Clippo has gone into hiding. Believe those who are seeking the truth. […]

March 24, 2011 11:48 pm

Rob Honeycutt;
If all the other data is going left and one set goes right then you can probably conclude the one that’s off by itself is a poor indicator.>>>
No, that is NOT what you conclude. What you conclude is that there is some factor or factors that result in some of the data going right instead of left, and you proceed to determine why. If you find out why, and the reason justifies dismissing the data, then all you need to do is document the reason and exclude the data. If you can’t find the reason, then there’s something about the drivers behind the data you don’t understand and your theory doesn’t accomodate. You can exclude the data if you want, but not without disclosing that fact in big bold print that the peer reviewers and publishers see. Anything less is a lie by omission.
To use your own analogy, if three of your friends say one time and the fourth a different time, the answer is NOT to decide its 3:1 for the first answer so let’s go with that. What the data is telling you is that 3 friends gave you one answer, and one another answer, which suggests you need to find out WHY one answer is different. You call them all to confirm. Your friends may have changed their mind after they spoke with you, but forgot to call back, while friend number four was late enough in the cycle when he spoke to you that the time had already changed, so 3/4 of your info is wrong.
Or maybe three of your friends have gotten tired of explaining simple logic to you and aren’t really your friends, and they all lied to you.
When a big chunk of data goes the wrong way, you do the exact same thing as when your friends report different movie times to you. Start asking why.

Nick Stokes
March 25, 2011 12:05 am

Theo Goodwin says:
March 24, 2011 at 6:36 pm
“They could have published the article and not hidden the decline. That is, they could have shown the actual tree ring data and not substituted the temperature curve for it. They could have explained that the actual tree ring data DIVERGES from the temperature data”
Yes, they could and they did. The Science paper in question looked at results from several papers, and for Briffa’s they referenced (available here):
K. R. Briffa et al., Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol.
Sci. 353, 65 (1998).

And in that they devote a who;e section to the decline, which begins:
“In s4, we referred to a notable correspondence between ‘hemispheric’ MXD series (averaged over all sites) and an equivalent `hemispheric’ instrumental temperature series. Despite their having 50% common variance measured over the last century, it is apparent that in recent decades the MXD series shows a decline, whereas we know that summer temperatures over the same area increased.”
And they went on to examine this in great detail, including Fig 6, which showed just what is shown here, but also broken down into contributing factors (with actual treering data). And yes, they go on to say:
“The implications of this phenomenon are important. Long-term alteration in the response of tree growth to climate forcing must, at least to some extent, negate the underlying assumption of uniformitarianism which under-lies the use of twentieth century-derived tree growth climate equations for retrodiction of earlier climates. At present, further work is required to explore the detailed nature of this changing growth – climate relationship (with regard to species, region, and time dependence). It is possible that it has already contributed to some degree of overestimation in published reconstructed temperature means – more likely only those that attempt to reconstruct long time-scale information.”
So what else should they have said?

Al Gored
March 25, 2011 12:36 am

Just gets more and more like Watergate as more gets uncovered.
Can it get any worse than this?
I see reverse hockey stick in the credibility of the Gang – Team is far too charitable – once this gets out. Hope Senator Inhof goes full tilt with it.

Roger Knights
March 25, 2011 12:37 am

They gave us the shaft!

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