I covered this earlier in a post here. Atmospheric Rivers can cause this sort of pattern, read more about them here. If the goal of press releases like this one from USC and the ones from USGS is to scare people and businesses out of the state, this combined with the taxation, waste, business hostile environment, and sluggish economy give just about anyone all the reason they need to pick up and leave. The movie below is from USGS, and gives their view.
USC: California superstorm would be costliest US disaster
A hurricane-like superstorm expected to hit California once every 200 years would cause devastation to the state’s businesses unheard of even in the Great Recession, a USC economist warns.
Researchers estimate the total property damage and business interruption costs of the massive rainstorm would be nearly $1 trillion.
USC research professor Adam Rose calculated that the lost production of goods and services alone would be $627 billion of the total over five years. Rose, a professor with the USC School of Policy, Planning, and Development, also is the coordinator for economics at the Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) at USC.
That number would make the severe storm scenario “the costliest disaster in the history of the United States̶, Rose said, more than six times greater than the 2001 World Trade Center attacks and Hurricane Katrina, which each caused $100 billion in business interruption.
The storm simulation U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists termed “ARkStorm – or “atmospheric river storm” – is patterned after the U.S. West Coast storms that devastated California in 1861-62.
The storms lasted for 45 days, forming lakes in the Mojave Desert and the Los Angeles Basin. California was left bankrupt after the storms wiped out nearly a third of the state’s taxable land, according to the USGS.
But those storms were no freak event, said USGS scientists, who called the ARkStorm model “plausible, perhaps inevitable.”
The ARkStorm areas include Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego and the San Francisco Bay area. The megastorm likely would require the evacuation of 1.5 million people.
According to the USGS, the ARkStorm would:
- create hurricane-force winds of up to 125 miles per hour in some areas and flood thousands of square miles of urban and agricultural land to depths of 10 to 20 feet.
- set off hundreds of landslides that would damage roads, highways and homes.
- disrupt lifelines such as power, water and sewers that would take weeks or months to repair.
Rose estimated the ARkStorm would cause the state’s unemployment rate to jump six percentage points in the first year, a further blow to the California economy that currently has one of the highest unemployment rates in the nation at 12.4 percent.
Rose called the severe storm scenario “much more imaginable” after Los Angeles was hit with 9.42 inches of rain in December. It was the wettest December in downtown Los Angeles in more than a century.
Climate scientists said global warming is a major factor behind the increasingly destructive power of hurricanes and other storms.
The sea level is rising as oceans warm and glaciers melt, which can create higher storm surges and more disastrous flooding in coastal areas.
“Climate change affects how the whole ecosystem works,” said Mark Bernstein, managing director of The USC Energy Institute.
“Storms form based on how warm the oceans are and how the jet stream changes,” Bernstein said. “The consequence is [the rain] will come in shorter and more intense bursts.”
Businesses and local governments can minimize the long-term impacts of such a disaster, Rose said, by creating emergency plans, increasing inventories of critical materials, backing up information systems, and diversifying supply chains and routes.
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Yeah, sure…big offshore rivers every 200 years and 196 years if there is excess CO2…but the big story, the one which makes this look like the walk in the park, is Yellowstone blowing up. Now that is caaaatastopheee! We all die and those who don’t wish they had.
No CO2 link so far….but it is early days for the merging of “climate science” and geology. There are proxies out there, as yet undiscovered, which will prove that Deathstar scale volcanic eruptions are driven by forcings caused by increased CO2.
/sarc
Pamela, when I was a schoolboy, my mother told me I had to wear clean underwear every day just in case I was run over by a bus. The shame of me being taken to hospital in yesterday’s underwear would have been too much for her to bear, it seems, but the moral blackmail worked; I can’t bear not wearing clean underwear every day. I have never been close to being run over by a bus and I am now a grumpy old man too.
Where I used to live, north of Auckland city, NZ, we would occasionally experience massive rain ‘dumps’ that dropped up to 3 inches of rain in an hour, with wind gusts up to 120 KPH. It’s not unusual for wind warnings to be issued for the Auckland Harbour bridge in which Hi-sider heavy goods vehicles, cars towing caravans and motorcycles are warned to stay off the bridge. Driving through a ‘rain dump’ is interesting, to say the least.
Only cars and robots have underware. Humans use underwear.
;pp
Ha,ha,aha,..
Excellent example of Communist propaganda from 50s last century. Especially the USGS movie. With one essential distinction – the movie was designed to be watched by New American Man, that is “adult-children” aka moron. Polish propaganda was intended for grown-up people and apart from the aggressive words they knew the texts was pure crap.
The USGS’ TV spot does NOT differ from the tidbit of Polish propaganda from 50s (but please read in full the quotes from Wikipedias below first as the movie is in Polish): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckvmEag99MU
(The War on Colorado Beetle)
1. Wikipedia English:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colorado_potato_beetle
Quote – (emphasis mine) “In 1877, the Colorado beetle reached Germany where it was eradicated. During or immediately following WWI, it became established near USA military bases in Bordeaux and proceeded to spread by the beginning of WWII to Belgium, the Netherlands and Spain. The population increased dramatically during and immediately following WWII and spread eastward, and the beetle is now found over much of the continent. After World War II, in the Soviet occupation zone of Germany, almost half of all potato fields were infested by the beetle by 1950. The government of East Germany used this for propaganda, claiming that the beetles had been dropped by the United States Army Air Forces.[5] In the EU it remains a regulated (quarantine) pest for the UK, Republic of Ireland, Balearic Islands, Cyprus, Malta and southern parts of Sweden and Finland. It is not present in any of these Member States.”
2. Wikipedia Polish (translated via Google Translate)
http://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stonka_ziemniaczana
Quote – “Plague of beetles in the PRL [edit]
The first beetles were observed in Poland in the 40s Twentieth century, migrants from west to east. Became popular and began to pose serious problems in the 50s According to the Communication Ministry of Agriculture and Agrarian Reform stated June 1, 1950 year in the Tribune of the People of the beetle were to be dropped in massive quantities by U.S. planes into the Baltic Sea, where it appeared on the coast and is rife throughout the country, starting against the socialist Poland diversionary-sabotage activities consisting of the greedy consumption of potato crops [2].
The above quote explains the planes flying over beaches on the Polish film. The other part is a carbon copy of USGS comments (emphasis mine):
The authorities immediately declared a merciless war on the beetle. The problem became interested in the highest party and government agents. In August 1951 it took a potato beetles UB [2]. During the 40s and 50, before the widespread use of chemicals to combat insects share organized collection of beetles and beetle larvae. In subsequent years, used products containing DDT.
Gluttonous larvae
The occurrence of beetles were used for political propaganda, mainly “to mobilize the masses.” During the first decades of communist Poland, and especially the 50th year, the Colorado beetle was regarded as the main reason for shortages of food. Occur if the scourge of summer beetles (striped saboteur “) were translated to the public as a wrecking enemies of socialism (” Tribune of the People “in May 1950, headlined the text on Colorado:” Unheard of crime the U.S. imperialists “), and 18 January 1953 the Polish government has resolution on the fight against the potato beetle population (then called the “Colorado beetles).
That’s only one of the hundreds examples one may found in US MSM the USA has become a “red” state nowadays.
Regards
According to the dates on the video the “arkstorm” happens more like every 400 years. I don’t know why they’re saying evey 200 years (assuming they’re not just trying to scare us).
Follow the money. >>The professor and his department will turn this into years and years of policy, planning and development consulting with government agencies and businesses to “help” them prepare for the storm: “USC research professor Adam Rose … with the USC School of Policy, Planning, and Development, also is the coordinator for economics at the Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) at USC.” >>Actually, if such a storm is inevitable, maybe we should do something. We know an earthquake is inevitable, and we have revised the construction of buildings. The basement if my old apartment building has been reinforced with drywall and “L” braces. >>It’s better than a certain San Francisco law firm, which sued the city of Stockton, California over greenhouse gas production. It seems like such an easy way to practice law: sue government agencies. The opponents are mild mannered civil servants, and the taxpayers pay the attorneys’ bill, all thanks to the California law called AB32-The California Global Warming Solutions Act: “After initiating a CEQA challenge to the City of Stockton’s 2035 General Plan, the firm negotiated a landmark settlement agreement with the City and the California Attorney General, which requires the City’s preparation of a Climate Action Plan, including specific policies and programs to meet greenhouse gas reduction targets within the City.” How much money did the taxpayers pay for that waste of time and effort? I bet the attorneys didn’t even work overtime. Home by 6pm every day.
It is a scientific fact that these 200year cycle weather events ONLY occur in countries which don’t have a written history going back more than 200 years.
According to tree ring data: Atmospheric Rivers hit the north part of Calif. (Yolla Bolly Wild, across Red Bluff to Lassen Pk.)during the MWP, 1023 to be exact. Never been seen again to that degree, almost 1,000 years ago. How do they know the 1861 event wasn’t a 1,000 yr event and not a 200 yr event?
The US Federal Reserves penchant for printing money and devaluing the savings of US citizens will cost more than any storm – why not focus on that?
85% of the last 400,000 years the globe has witnessed an ice age, the last one being just a mere 15,000? (or so) years ago. We are long overdue for its return. Thousands of feet of ice consumed areas now occupied by Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, New York City and Boston. We are in a brief intermission.
We must prepare immediately for the inevitable coming of the ice, we must plan for relocation of all population north of the Mason Dixon Line, and from northern Europe!
Yea, right.
ROM says:
March 8, 2011 at 12:14 am
They don’t just live there, they love it. Then when the jobs disappear, they flee to Texas or other good locales, and simultaneously brag about how wonderful CA is, and bash their new home. Yep, it happens. A lot.
After the California politicians succeed turning the Golden State in the GHOST STATE, even if this storm did occur, nobody would care as nobody and nothing of value would be there.
They are not saying global warming will cause the storm but increased ocean temperatures and higher water levels would magnify the effects of such a storm if it were to happen again.
@Tom in Florida says:
March 7, 2011 at 7:23 pm
Mike says: (March 7, 2011 at 7:09 pm)
“Scientists warned us that New Orleans could be devastated by a major hurricane years before Katrina hit. We ignored them.”
Can you be the only one who doesn’t know that Katrina didn’t do the damage? It was the stupidity of building below sea level between the Gulf of Mexico and a large lake.
—————————-
That is the point. We ignored the very clear warnings. We did not maintain levees, we built in place we should not have and we did not have sufficient emergency planning in place. It was a failure of both parties and every level of government. It is foolish to ignore science when you don’t like the conclusions. We may or may not be able to afford to do everything the scientists would like us to do – that is a judgment call that involves balancing competing priorities and risks. But it is foolish to ignore the evidence when making such determinations as people here seem to advocate.
[snip] /Sac off
We had one heck of a rain storm Sunday nere in MD, glad it wasn’t colder we would have been under FEET of snow. Thank god for global warming! opps, /Sac off again
“Climate scientists said global warming is a major factor behind the increasingly destructive power of hurricanes and other storms.”
It’s a perfect ploy. See, the article isn’t really saying that the storm itself will be a result of AGW, but rather that the intensity of the storm will be bolstered by AGW.
It’s perfect, because it is complete garbage and is absolutely impossible to measure. “Oh wow, this storm was absolutely devastating! But it would have been 20% less devastating had there not been AGW. ” Hogwash. Horsepuckey. Poppycock.
When this happens, it will be devastating, and it will have massive, lingering economic impact. But not because of AGW. And not really because of the storm directly. Because millions of people want to live where the weather is sunny and 73° for ten months out of the year, and are either willing to roll the dice with the natural hazards of the area, or have deluded themselves into underestimating the risks.
_____
George Turner: “Sadly, most of the area’s residents don’t have the sense to come in out of the rain (OMG, double rainbow!), much less not to drive an electric car into the water, much less raging floodwaters.”
You thought “Double Rainbow Dude” was bad, do a YouTube search on “DBOOTS” and watch her movies. My favorite is the one with her freaking out over the rainbow in her backyard while she runs the sprinkler in the early evening sunlight. Another goodie is her going bonkers over lens-flare in her camcorder, which she is CERTAIN is related to the government spying on all of us.
Don’t watch too much of her at once, or you’ll have brain cells committing suicide. But in short doses, she is a hoot.
Southern California’s rainy season commences in November and runs through April, so it was a single rainy season, spanning the two years, 1861-1862.
Right after the end of the rainy season began the first year of the great droughts of the 1860’s. Starting in Mid-1862 and lasting over two years, these droughts decimated the cattle herds, ending the “ranchero”-based economy of Southern California. Near the end of the drought, in 1864, a smallpox outbreak killed most of the native Indian population of the region, which was no doubt severely malnourished and stressed from the two years of drought.
The time period is not far from the end of the LIA and the concurrent population migration clearly brought smallpox to the region. Had these people been as smart as we are, the scientific community of the time would have undoubtedly blamed “climate change” for these disasters.
Mike says: (March 8, 2011 at 7:48 am)
“That is the point. We ignored the very clear warnings. We did not maintain levees, we built in place we should not have and we did not have sufficient emergency planning in place.”
I read your initial short statement, (Scientists warned us that New Orleans could be devastated by a major hurricane years before Katrina hit. We ignored them)
to mean you were agreeing with the models predicting more devastating hurricanes and then blaming the resultant problems in New Orleans on that. My apologies.
Wow, you chaps in the USA have got your work cut for you. Tax dollars being spent on mini movies, this I would expect to come under the umbrella of National Geographic not USGS. There was a true sound bite, “California is bankrupt”. Good luck, seems prudence left long ago.
I think you missed the point. We here in CA are partying. We have deficits climbing orders of magnitude faster than CO2 and global temperatures. Fortunately, when the big one (earthquake, 200/500 year flood – take your pick) hits, the Federal Government will bail us out. Why would we ever get our house in order when someone else will save us from ourselves?
Time to go. My tan needs work, and since I got laid off (at least the unemployment figure is stable at 12.5%), I have time to head for the beach!
/sarc off
(And you wonder why I’m moving out of state.)
Feb deficit spending was $220billions. Could we divert 3 months of that to california. That shouldtake careofit and shut up Rosy loons
New Orleans got crushed because of the failure of levies and dams that were supposed to be able to handle the surge that Katrina caused. Katrina should not have overwhelmed them, but due to either design flaws or poor maintenance they did fail.
This is new Orleans, is anyone suprised that the city governemtn failed in their primary task ? really ??? have you listened to Nagin ? Please …
And it was engineers who would have been warning about storm surge overwhelming the dams and levies, NOT scientists.
You want storms?? Check out this movie clip of the latest coronal mass ejection (CME) from our sun:
http://sungrazer.nrl.navy.mil/index.php?p=images/fast_cme.gif
If Earth gets directly nailed by one of these, toss your iPhone/Android out the window….
I fancied California for this year’s holiday.
I’m telling travel companies that unless they supply a liferaft the deal’s off.
@Tom in Florida says: March 7, 2011 at 7:23 pm …
——–
Tom, thank you. I should have been clearer.