This post illustrates the recent drop in the SST anomalies of the U.S. coastal waters. We’ll represent this subset with the coordinates of 20N-50N, 130W-65W. I’ve used those coordinates in at least one earlier post about the SST Anomalies of U.S. “Coastal” Waters. Figure 1 is the December 2010 Reynolds OI.v2 SST anomaly map with those coordinates highlighted. The cooling appears to be an exaggerated response to the 2010/11 La Niña.
http://i51.tinypic.com/ny902e.jpg
Figure 1
Figure 2 is the Reynolds OI.v2-based time-series graph for this subset. After the two-month flattening in September and October 2010, at approximately -0.24 deg C, the SST anomalies dropped more than 0.65 deg C by January 2011. The January 2011 reading for the U.S. Coast Waters is the lowest on record for the satellite-based Reynolds Oi.v2 SST dataset.
http://i55.tinypic.com/2hqe9hu.jpg
Figure 2
Note: This is not a post about global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, nor is it a post about the SST anomalies of the individual ocean basins. For those refer to the January 2011 SST Anomaly Update.
Figures 3, 4, and 5 show the long-term SST anomalies for the U.S. Coastal Waters using the HADISST, ERSST.v3b, and HADSST2 datasets. They provide a different perspective on the magnitude of the recent drop. For the HADISST and ERSST.v3b datasets, one has to go back to the April 1971 to find similar SST anomalies, and back to July 1933 with HADSST2 data.
http://i53.tinypic.com/339o96f.jpg
Figure 3
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http://i54.tinypic.com/30w5e6v.jpg
Figure 4
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http://i56.tinypic.com/29e54s6.jpg
Figure 5
The weekly data for this subset, Figure 6, show that the SST anomalies are rebounding. I’ll add this dataset to the monthly update for a few months to assure it rebounds fully.
http://i52.tinypic.com/11lmsuw.jpg
Figure 6
SOURCE
The map and all data presented in this post are available through the KNMI Climate Explorer:http://climexp.knmi.nl/selectfield_obs.cgi?someone@somewhere
Interesting how the Earth sheds multi-decadal gained heat, isn’t it?
Well that’s scary. Taking fig.4 as a clearer example, it takes about 30 years to go from peak to trough to peak.
Currently we are about 12 years from the peak in 1998, so another 18 years or so of cooling to come?
That rebound you mentioned may only be a wee little temporary one.
Thankyou for the post, the graphs are fantastic.
This is clearly cooling caused by warming. As the oceans warm, CO2 and other gases outgas. Also water evaporates, all of which causes a cooling of the SST. Do I win a Gavin Award for my creative explanation?
“The cooling appears to be an exaggerated response to the 2010/11 La Niña.”
Agreed but what might cause the response to be ‘exaggerated’ rather than ‘normal’?
Very nice analysis Bob.
Stephen Wilde says:
February 23, 2011 at 10:21 am
You are right—I did not put that in perspective. I guess the current Holocene is an exaggerated response to the last glaciation? Words do seem to be important, or, as Monty Python says, “it is not just a matter of the number of words, but also getting them in the proper order”.
I always check the weather as I plan a trip, do I bring the boogie board or my hockey stick when I go to Brownsville TX next week.
I’m so confused now.
Bob, can you explain the differences among-between the charts: HADISST US Coastal Anomalies, ERSST.v3b, and HADISST2. In the last one ~1881 and ~1893 are at ~-1.7 degrees. That seems “cold”; the present SST coastal anomaly is “much warmer” by comparison. The first two show “much warmer” anomalies at those dates. What gives?
When I compare today’s coastal anomaly with the first two, I become more alarmed by E.M. Smith’s latest discussion of Bond events (http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/02/22/intermediate-period-half-bond-events/). It seems we are “definitely” turning colder, more like at the beginning of the exit from the Little Ice Age. Are we on our way down? (As far as I have read, we simply don’t have any ideas why these Bond events occur, but societies-civilizations have regularly fallen with the more severe cooling,)
When I see how much colder the end of the 19th C oceans were in HADISST2 compared to today, I breathe a little sigh of relief. The HADISST2 chart leads me to believe that maybe we have more time with warmth. A final thought. One of Chiefio’s main points with which I agree no matter how soon the climate changes : “Can we get off this treadmill with modern technology? I’d like to hope so. But we’ve only got about 10 to 15 years to prepare and we are doing exactly the wrong things.”
bubbagyro says:
February 23, 2011 at 10:19 am
Do I win a Gavin Award for my creative explanation?
No, but you are now authorized to wear a “sharper00 V ” on your lapel.
It’s a real shame that the climate scientists are still spewing out bad “science” on a warming period that actually ended years ago and are totally missing the real science of exactly how, by proper physics, the Earth is reconstructing itself into the configuration found at the bottom of cool periods. They have already blown it again! Shame on them. They ignore Dr. Miskolczi who has pretty much explained why.
However, that is also why most people always invest their money at a top. Must be a deeply imbedded natural tendency most have.
I agree, the graphs are fantastic — thanks for the post.
The amplitude of change in relation to time is amazing.
Bob, excellent as usual….
Should this be “off” instead of “of”
“This post illustrates the recent drop in the SST anomalies “of” the U.S. coastal waters”
I live on an island in the Gulf off Ft. Myers. The Gulf is very cool now—it should be in the 70s by now. I’ve been swimming this time of year before. I guess this “anomaly” explains a bit.
bubbagyro says:
February 23, 2011 at 10:19 am
This is clearly cooling caused by warming. As the oceans warm, CO2 and other gases outgas. Also water evaporates, all of which causes a cooling of the SST. Do I win a Gavin Award for my creative explanation?
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I’m nominating you for a Romm! Clearly, you are getting very close to properly articulating the warmcold phenomenon! And dabbling with the wetdry dynamic!
Bob
Is this comparable to a limited case of -ve PDO and -ve AMO scenario around North America , even though AMO is not yet negative [but it is quite low+VE] ? The weather impact seems somewhat similar [ weather like the 1970’s].
Gore’s, Hegerl’s and others “findings” about increased precipitation extremes due to warming look pretty stupid, when the increased snowfall is accompanied by multi decade low temperatures around the US.
Hi Bob,
Thanks for this interesting perspective. I’d not really considered la nina events to be north Atlantic effective before. Maybe the cold water sneaks through the Panama Canal at night?
Perhaps my ideas that heat leaves the oceans *everywhere* while the sun is quiet isn’t so daft after all eh?
Good for the fishermen.
By the way, the bounceback will continue for about 6 weeks before dithering down again on and off until September. Final low point around -0.32+/-0.05C is my estimate, on Roy Spencer’s +70–70 Satellite SST index.
Cheers
The cold sst is mirroring the jet stream which makes me think it is just cold water spilling out of the arctic along with the cold air as a function of the negative NAO.
http://squall.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_norhem_00.gif
current NAO
http://ioc3.unesco.org/oopc/state_of_the_ocean/atm/nao.php
Meanwhile the reduced arctic sea ice cover is allowing the heat associated with the blocking high over Greenland to escape.
pyromancer76 says: “Bob, can you explain the differences among-between the charts: HADISST US Coastal Anomalies, ERSST.v3b, and HADISST2.”
The last one should read HADSST2, not HADISST2. (I haven’t presented HADISST2 data in this post. There will be a HADISST2 dataset. It should be released by the Hadley Centre this year.)
The HADISST (Hadley Centre) and ERSST.v3b (NOAA/NCDC) are interpolated/infilled datasets. The HADSST2 (Hadley Centre) data are not infilled. Refer to the following post – An Overview Of Sea Surface Temperature Datasets Used In Global Temperature Products:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2010/07/overview-of-sea-surface-temperature.html
For Stephen Wilde and matt v and others looking for an explanation as to why there’s an exaggerated response to this La Nina:
Sorry, but I haven’t looked into it. I really don’t plan to examine it unless it repeats during the next La Nina and/or it starts to have an impact on a larger portion of the globe and/or there’s a long-term shift.
I’ve added a couple of SST Anomaly maps and an Ocean Heat Content chart to WUWT’s Ocean Reference Page:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/ocean/
Let me know if there are any additional charts, maps or links that you think would be valuable on the page.
Bob,
Do you have any idea How much the cold SST on the west coast is due to upwelling as opposed to transport? The west coast news is talking about the upwelling and return of fishing stocks. Is there a map that shows upwelling?
Just The Facts says: “I’ve added a couple of SST Anomaly maps and an Ocean Heat Content chart to WUWT’s Ocean Reference Page…”
The intro to the NODC Ocean Heat Content should read “Global Ocean Heat Content – 0-700 Meters”, instead of “At 3 Meters”.
And for the Sea Level map you’ve introduced it as “Global Sea Level Change – Millimeters Per Year – Inverted Barometer Not Applied”, but haven’t given the time period, which is identified on the following page as 1992-2010:
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/maps.php
Other than that the resourse is great. I can’t think of anything to add.
Regards