More solar images at the WUWT Solar Reference Page
From the: University of Colorado at Boulder
Space weather disrupts communications, threatens other technologies
A powerful solar flare has ushered in the largest space weather storm in at least four years and has already disrupted some ground communications on Earth, said University of Colorado Boulder Professor Daniel Baker, an internationally known space weather expert.
Classified as a Class X flare, the Feb. 15 event also spewed billions of tons of charged particles toward Earth in what are called coronal mass ejections and ignited a geomagnetic storm in Earth’s magnetic field, said Baker, director of CU-Boulder’s Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics. Such powerful ejections can cause a variety of socioeconomic and safety issues ranging from the disruption of airline navigation systems and power grids to the safety of airline crews and astronauts.
“The sun is coming back to life,” said Baker, who chaired a 2008 National Research Council committee that produced a report titled “Severe Space Weather Events — Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts.” For the past several years the sun has been in its most quiescent state since early in the 20th century, said Baker.
From a scientific standpoint a class X event — the most powerful kind of solar flare — is exciting, said Baker, also a CU-Boulder professor in the astrophysical and planetary sciences department. “But as a society, we can’t afford to let our guard down when operating spacecraft in the near-Earth environment.”
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, several more coronal mass ejections may reach Earth’s atmosphere in the next day or two.
“Human dependence on technology makes society more susceptible to the effects of space weather,” Baker said. “But scientists and engineers have made great strides in recent decades regarding this phenomenon.
“We understand much more about what is happening and can build more robust systems to withstand the effects,” Baker said. “It will be interesting to see how well our technological systems will withstand the rigors of space weather as the sun gets back to higher activity levels.”
Baker also spearheaded a 2006 NRC report titled “Space Radiation Hazards and the Vision for Space.” The report considered the effects of space weather events on human explorers venturing beyond low-Earth orbit. The National Research Council is a federal organization created by the National Academy of Sciences.
The sun has entered a very quiet phase overall-the maxima of solar cycle 24 may be spurts of high activity-but likely not the sustained periods of high activity weve seen in the past. Stereo behind images show the other side of sun facing away from Earth very quiet with just one region just coming into view. The sun will likely go back to being quiet in a week or two. Activity also spiked a year ago when the SFI index rose to 96.
Leif,
It seems to me that you are fixed in your (open) mind. You say the cycles in the 18th century were about the same length even with that 17 y SC! Anyway, I have to look into it more, before I can evaluate.
I find the correlation in F-C & L (fig.2) remarkable, I am not taken in by that, I just find it remarkable. You use different time series for both SCL and temperature. You say their analysis is flawed, but I am not convinced. In fact, their analysis looks less flawed so far.
My mind is very open.
Yogi Bear says:
February 19, 2011 at 10:09 am (Edit)
Leif Svalgaard says:
February 19, 2011 at 7:58 am
tallbloke says:
February 19, 2011 at 12:38 am
Any idea whether this is temporary or a real ramp-up?
The sun is a messy place. Weak cycle often have large swings in activity. Classical example: http://www.leif.org/research/SC14.png
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Another classic example, SC9: http://www.solen.info/solar/cycl9.html
Thank you both. It’s interesting to look at the variety of shapes in previous cycles. I anticipate a forked peak in this cycle, although the peaks may be pretty flat! A lull in the middle anyway.
Just snagged TI2AIM in San Jose, Costa Rica (from Texas) 100W, omni, on 28.415 …
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Edim says:
February 19, 2011 at 11:57 am
You say the cycles in the 18th century were about the same length even with that 17 y SC! Anyway, I have to look into it more, before I can evaluate.
What 17 yr cycle? Look at the first plot of
http://www.leif.org/research/Cycle%20Length%20Temperature%20Correlation.pdf
You find their figure 2 remarkable. I would agree if the figure resulted from proper analysis, but since it doesn’t… But do as I did. Make your own analysis and see for yourself.
Edim says:
February 19, 2011 at 8:36 am
Somewhat OT, but what do you think about the correlation between solar cycle length and NH land air temperatures (SCL 12221 filtered, 11-year running average of T), as shown in report by Friis-Christensen and Lassen (1991) for example?
http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/files/documents/Solar%20Cycle%20-%20Friis-Chr_Lassen-.pdf >/i>
Although some of the SCL data may have been filtered the last 2-3 data points can’t have been. In fact the last point looks as though it is simply the cycle length of SC21 or SC22 (remember SC20 was over 11 years long) – as it’s less than 10 years. It sems as though F-C & L used a filter which fitted the data over the earlier 20th century period but then used a partial filter or just a single data point for the last ~40 years.
I would suggest the correlation would break down quite noticeably if consistent data were used.
Copied JA1UTQ (Tokyo, Japan) while mobile this afternoon on 15 meters about 5:30 PM local; signal became armchair copy about 10 mins in. The JA1’s QSO was with a W6-land (California) station … total QSO time 15 min …
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Here is Magnetosphere Activity for February, 19th 2011, from the National Institute of Information and Communications Technology.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jDyNWiZX2xQ&w=480&h=390]
Here’s the link to the high res download avi file:
http://www3.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/movie/2011/test_6.20110219.avi
What I find particularly interesting in the Feb 19th activity is that Earth’s Magnetic Field (top left box) became splayed out and seemingly very stable as the day progressed. Usually Earth’s Magnetic Field is contorted and highly variable.
Mods
“[this is a repost . . it is here pending final deletion]”
What is this about?
[Two identical posts were made a few minutes apart . . the first was approved, the second held . . OK?]
Just The Facts says:
February 19, 2011 at 9:50 pm
Here is Magnetosphere Activity for February, 19th 2011, from the National Institute of Information and Communications Technology.
What I find particularly interesting in the Feb 19th activity is that Earth’s Magnetic Field (top left box) became splayed out and seemingly very stable as the day progressed. Usually Earth’s Magnetic Field is contorted and highly variable.
It became very stable because the solar wind became very stable on the 18th [lower right] and has continued [still stable http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_3d.html ]. This is very unusual behavior and I first thought it was instrumental malfunction of ACE, but the WIND satellite shows similar behavior http://pwg.gsfc.nasa.gov/windnrt/
Leif Svalgaard says:
Just The Facts says:
February 19, 2011 at 9:50 pm
Here is Magnetosphere Activity for February, 19th 2011, from the National Institute of Information and Communications Technology.
What I find particularly interesting in the Feb 19th activity is that Earth’s Magnetic Field (top left box) became splayed out and seemingly very stable as the day progressed. Usually Earth’s Magnetic Field is contorted and highly variable.
It became very stable because the solar wind became very stable on the 18th [lower right] and has continued [still stable as we speak http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_3d.html ]. This is very unusual behavior and I first thought it was instrumental malfunction of ACE, but the WIND satellite shows similar behavior http://pwg.gsfc.nasa.gov/windnrt/
Leif Svalgaard says:
February 20, 2011 at 3:34 am
This is very unusual behavior and I first thought it was instrumental malfunction of ACE, but the WIND satellite shows similar behavior http://pwg.gsfc.nasa.gov/windnrt/
Now, there are instrumental issues, like the extreme flatlining the later part of the 19th is due to missing data http://hirweb.nict.go.jp/sedoss/solact3 [which causes the simulation to carry on with the last value just extended in time.
Still haven’t seen or experienced anything substantially of note although WWV at 10 MHz has had weaker periods throughout the day when it might be expected to be stronger, I worked/copied some trans-equatorial DX the last several days. Apparently nothing other than anecdotal evidence exists for the ‘deleterious effects’ this phenom is supposed to wreak … pls note that propagation has been rotten on the higher frequency HF bands for awhile now due to ‘solar inactivity’; it is a lament quite a few hams have voiced.
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Good Report & Great pics.
This is just one event – although quite big one – in the rising phase of Solar Cycle 24 which is low level compared with average solar cycles.
Leaving aside the usual media hype the most significant thing about THIS X2 flare and associated events including a proton burst is the fantastic Auroras North & South hemispheres and the related PREDICTED by us – WeatherAction; storm (and storm magnification) events in USA, Australia (Tropical cyclone formation East of Queensland again), UK & Europe. See Our WeatherActionNews2011No4 for GREAT PICS, maps and news –
http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews11No4.pdf
or via twitter (Piers_Corbyn) tweet:-
Celestial Fireworks celebrate Sun-Earth forecasting links. Warmist Meteorology challenged http://bit.ly/dTAtu8
The clear link we draw in this PREDICTED chain of solar events driving specific predicted Earth weather events is intended as a challenge to warmist meteorology and politicians although they might not be listening!
Anyhow it was known to the Vikings that major auroras were usually associated with major storms. I don’t know if they had a view about why but I don’t think they thought the auroras and storms were caused by them lighting fires or burning boats.
Here is Magnetosphere Activity for February, 20th 2011, from the National Institute of Information and Communications Technology:
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RoiaYr1sKUc&hl=en&fs=1]
Here’s the link to the high res download avi file:
http://www3.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/movie/2011/test_6.20110220.avi
It appears that for the first 8 1/2 hours the magnetic field remains splayed out and stable, before slowly returning towards a more active state.
Leif, do you think we looking at natural phenomena or sensor failures?
_Jim says: February 19, 2011 at 8:59 am
[ ]
_Jim,
Also part of that same record is:
House Armed Services Committee Military Research and
Development Subcommittee on October 7, 1999
In the Statement of Michael Bernardin, Provost for Theoretical
Institute of Thermonuclear Studies, Los Alamos National Laboratory:
A single point air burst thermonuclear detonation which has
an effective electromagnetic pulse (EMP) lasting no more than
five minutes can not be equated to the electromagnetic pulse(s)
accompanying a coronal mass ejection (CME) that can impact
our atmosphere and, hence, our electrical grids and anything
connected to them for hours or days .
No one alive has any experience dealing with disruption on
a hemispheric scale like the September 1, 1857, Carrington
event.
Just The Facts says:
February 21, 2011 at 12:15 am
It appears that for the first 8 1/2 hours the magnetic field remains splayed out and stable, before slowly returning towards a more active state.
Leif, do you think we looking at natural phenomena or sensor failures?
The first 8 hours of the 20th, the data is missing and the simulation is stuck on its prior value, so no wonder it looks stable [from ACE]:
2011 02 19 2100 55611 75600 0 -5.6 -0.7 -4.2 7.0 -36.6
2011 02 19 2200 55611 79200 0 -5.5 -2.2 -3.9 7.1 -33.8
2011 02 19 2300 55611 82800 9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9
2011 02 20 0000 55612 0 9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9
2011 02 20 0100 55612 3600 9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9
2011 02 20 0200 55612 7200 9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9
2011 02 20 0300 55612 10800 9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9
2011 02 20 0400 55612 14400 9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9
2011 02 20 0500 55612 18000 9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9
2011 02 20 0600 55612 21600 9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9
2011 02 20 0700 55612 25200 0 -0.5 -3.7 -4.6 5.9 -51.0
2011 02 20 0800 55612 28800 0 -0.7 -0.5 -4.6 4.6 -79.7
2011 02 20 0900 55612 32400 0 -1.0 0.1 -5.6 5.7 -80.0
Just The Facts says:
February 21, 2011 at 12:15 am
Leif, do you think we looking at natural phenomena or sensor failures?
Most likely communications failure, rather than sensor failure.
Here is Magnetosphere Activity for February, 21st 2011, from the National Institute of Information and Communications Technology:
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fmf4Y3ZjfQ&w=480&h=390]
Here’s the link to the high res download avi file:
http://www3.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/movie/2011/test_6.20110221.avi