Dr. Leif Svalgaard writes in a short email:
M6.6 flare kicks F10.7 to 126 sfu
Here’s the flare on the X-ray plot:
Here’s the xray image:
So while the sun has been generally quiet recently, it still has its fits of flaring on occasion, as would be expected.
Sunspot group 1158 was responsible for this, and is growing rapidly, here’s a movie:
NASA’s Spaceweather.com made the movie and writes:
The active region is now more than 100,000 km wide with at least a dozen Earth-sized dark cores scattered beneath its unstable magnetic canopy. Earth-directed eruptions are likely in the hours ahead.
You can keep tabs on the sun at WUWT’s Solar Image and Data page
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“Sun has been quiet recently”?!?!!!? Cool post, and thanks to Dr. S, but I thought this statement was kinda misleading.
It might be worth tuning up the old SW receiver to see if I can hear more than usual. Propagation has been crap lately.
Unrelated garbage news on coronal ejections: http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/111860/20110213/sun-holes-nasa-space-coronal-hinode.htm
Finally, a proper ramp-up seems to be kicking in.
Perhaps the predicted sunspot curve should be revised upward for once 😉
The flare was expected because active region 1158 is really two active regions colliding and hence making for a very twisted and complicated magnetic field. The very high F10.7 reading is sort of a fluke. At large flare always adds a bit extra to F10.7. The high value of 126 will not last long, but there is no doubt that we had significant activity. Let’s wait for the noon/afternoon value of F10.7 and see what it settles down to.
Link is for minute by minute update
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/Xray_1m.gif
Mr. Alex says:
February 13, 2011 at 12:11 pm
I think it is a bit premature to jump to this conclusion.
Leif Svalgaard says:
February 13, 2011 at 12:14 pm
Let’s wait for the noon/afternoon value of F10.7 and see what it settles down to.
Noon values: observed=106.7, adjusted=104.1
Cool! Thanks Leif.
Thank you Dr. L. What are your thoughts on X class flares emitting from solar spot 1158 over the next 96 hrs. If they do occur will it be unsafe for air travel? Regards Jim
M8.3 still stands as the largest of SC24 on 2-10-2010. But F10.7 is all time high at 107 currently.
Jim Frohnapfel says:
February 13, 2011 at 1:59 pm
What are your thoughts on X class flares emitting from solar spot 1158 over the next 96 hrs.
X-flare is definitely possible as the magnetic field is still all twisted up.
If they do occur will it be unsafe for air travel?
No, as the dangerous flare emission is absorbed by the atmosphere way above commercial flight altitudes. But since the flare occurred at central meridian there were Earth-directed particles. These will arrive in hours to days and could be dangerous.
Anthony,
Your soft x-ray snapshot of the flare doesn’t do an M-class flare justice. You can link to my screensave of it, grabbed just as it peaked:
http://www.qsl.net/a/af4ex/images/m8flare13Feb11.png
I judged it “M8”, before NOAA officially classified it M6.6.
Here’s an animation of sunspot 1158, just as it popped, photographed by the Solar Dynamic Observatory’s extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) AIA sensor (335 angstroms):
http://www.qsl.net/a/af4ex//images/m6.6flare13Feb11.gif
You indicated that two regions “twisted together” …
How far apart do sunspot regions need to be before their mutual repulsion (?) of their individual magnetic fields tend to force them apart – rather than allow them/enable them to twist together? Or would nearby regions always tend to gather together?
Leif Svalgaard says:
February 13, 2011 at 2:14 pm
Roll of the dice as far as the danger goes I suppose… Still, if one wishes to continue reproducing without possibility of birth defects, then perhaps a tin foil codpiece is in order?
Thanks Dr Leif!
racookpe1978 says:
February 13, 2011 at 6:46 pm
Or would nearby regions always tend to gather together?
The formation of sunspots is one of the great unsolved problems in solar physics. From observations we find that a sunspot forms by the coalescence or assembly of many smaller magnetic features rather oppositely to what one would believe in the sense that magnetic elements of the same polarity collect together rather than repelling each other http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/09/070919172911.htm . The process is driven by movements of plasma in the outer layers of the sun. Ken Schatten describes how this may come about http://www.leif.org/research/Percolation%20and%20the%20Solar%20Dynamo.pdf
The flows of plasma drags the magnetic field with it and is responsible for the twisting.
INGSOC says:
February 13, 2011 at 7:00 pm
[…]”But since the flare occurred at central meridian there were Earth-directed particles. These will arrive in hours to days and could be dangerous.”
Roll of the dice as far as the danger goes I suppose… Still, if one wishes to continue reproducing without possibility of birth defects, then perhaps a tin foil codpiece is in order?
lead shield, perhaps? well, it is rare that the particles reach all the way down to the surface [only about 70 cases have been observed the past ~60 years] and the exposure would be brief. All in all, I don’t think there is any great danger here. But for astronauts [or satellites] in space the danger is very real.
Live just north of 45n can’t wait to show my wife who’s never seen an Aurora,
A good display-she spent time in the Yukon, but while the sun was still up….Thanks for your input, Leif…
racookpe1978 says:
February 13, 2011 at 6:46 pm
Or would nearby regions always tend to gather together?
For some [bad] reason NASA has removed the gorgeous movie of the emergence of the sunspot reported here: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/09/070919172911.htm
It is however available on Youtube:
10.7 has just hitv 108!!! Long time since we have seen that!!!
Sorry, I missed the first sentence but any way the NWRA says 10.7 is 107 which is the highest value since late 2005!
Your linked files (to the sunspot movement) are noted. Thank you.
racookpe1978 says:
February 13, 2011 at 8:27 pm
Your linked files (to the sunspot movement) are noted. Thank you.
I might add that the magnetic field cools the spot. Cooler material sinks within the spot and that drives an inwards flow that helps keep the spot together [and to sweep up small magnetic elements].
Are there any online sites which give a more “real time” report of 10.7 cm flux than Penticton’s thrice-daily measurements?
Walter Dnes says:
February 13, 2011 at 8:54 pm
Are there any online sites which give a more “real time” report of 10.7 cm flux than Penticton’s thrice-daily measurements?
No, not that I know of.
Walter Dnes says:
February 13, 2011 at 8:54 pm
Are there any online sites which give a more “real time” report of 10.7 cm flux than Penticton’s thrice-daily measurements?
There are other stations that measure at other times [and at other frequencies]
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/solar_indices.html
The frequency closest the F10.7 [2800 MHz] is 2695 MHz. The values at this frequency are a bit smaller than F10.7, but give at least an indication of what is coming.