From the Marshall Space Flight Center, Dr. Hathaway’s page:
Current prediction for the next sunspot cycle maximum gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 58 in July of 2013. We are currently two years into Cycle 24 and the predicted size continues to fall.
Additionally, the monthly data plots are out, and there’s been little change from last month in the three major solar indexes plotted by the Space Weather Prediction Center:
h/t to WUWT reader harrywr2
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vukcecic:
February 11m 2011 at 1:44 pm
Not known, but we have a good idea what they might be
That is just speculation [and as I said, statistically, we might expect that], but we don’t know and have no way of knowing yet. The formation of the polar fields is basically a random process working with the magnetic flux we have.
@Vukcevic:
Not sure how you formula works, but can it also predict an stronger cycle if so? And have you tested it against other cycles?
Looks like the spots are showing up with a vengence.
Can we at least stop for a moment and realize that no matter what the relevance of SSN to solar and terrestrial climate, we have been totally off the mark in terms of predictions. Every year since 2006 NASA revised its SSN projections down. Now it is going further toward a recent minimum. Please! Admit that we cannot rely on our current models and stop pretending like we can. The implications for the credibility of our other climate models should be obvious.
GFrazier says:
February 13, 2011 at 4:20 pm
we have been totally off the mark in terms of predictions. Every year since 2006 NASA revised its SSN projections down.
NASA does not make predictions of the SSN. The topic here is David Hathaway’s private projections. And there have been more successful predictions: http://www.leif.org/research/Cycle%2024%20Smallest%20100%20years.pdf
True, we can’t predict the exact strength of a cycle however, Joseph D’Aleo points out that there is roughly a 100 year cycle that he and Farmer’s Almanac uses. I tend to believe D’Aleo is associated with the Almanac.
Anyway, there is a tendency for the first two cycles of a century and of the next 9 cycles to be weak. Two are weak and 7 strong.
They tend to range from 200 to 450 total sunspot average for the cycle. That is, you add the SIDC average for each year of a cycle up for a cycle and it can vary for 200 to over 900 for a cycle over the pass 300 years.
Flux and flares are over my head. That’s a sunspot joke. Over my head! Don’t hear many of those.
What did the one sunspot say to the other sunspot?
“Is that a B Class Flare you’re smoking”?
The list goes on!
Jcarels says: February 13, 2011 at 9:22 am
………….
Here is a guide to the causal relationship SSN to PF
http://www.leif.org/research/AGU%20Fall%202008%20SH51A-1593.pdf
Thanks!