The North Atlantic heat is on

From the University of Colorado at Boulder

Warming North Atlantic water tied to heating Arctic, according to new study

Photo of the German research vessel Maria S. Merian moving through sea ice in Fram Strait northwest of Svalbard. The research team discovered the water there was the warmest in at least 2,000 years, which has implications for a warming and melting Arctic. Credit: Nicolas van Nieuwenhove (IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel)

The temperatures of North Atlantic Ocean water flowing north into the Arctic Ocean adjacent to Greenland — the warmest water in at least 2,000 years — are likely related to the amplification of global warming in the Arctic, says a new international study involving the University of Colorado Boulder.

Led by Robert Spielhagen of the Academy of Sciences, Humanities and Literature in Mainz, Germany, the study showed that water from the Fram Strait that runs between Greenland and Svalbard — an archipelago constituting the northernmost part of Norway — has warmed roughly 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit in the past century. The Fram Strait water temperatures today are about 2.5 degrees F warmer than during the Medieval Warm Period, which heated the North Atlantic from roughly 900 to 1300 and affected the climate in Northern Europe and northern North America.

The team believes that the rapid warming of the Arctic and recent decrease in Arctic sea ice extent are tied to the enhanced heat transfer from the North Atlantic Ocean, said Spielhagen. According to CU-Boulder’s National Snow and Ice Data Center, the total loss of Arctic sea ice extent from 1979 to 2009 was an area larger than the state of Alaska, and some scientists there believe the Arctic will become ice-free during the summers within the next several decades.

“Such a warming of the Atlantic water in the Fram Strait is significantly different from all climate variations in the last 2,000 years,” said Spielhagen, also of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences in Keil, Germany.

According to study co-author Thomas Marchitto, a fellow at CU-Boulder’s Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, the new observations are crucial for putting the current warming trend of the North Atlantic in the proper context.

“We know that the Arctic is the most sensitive region on the Earth when it comes to warming, but there has been some question about how unusual the current Arctic warming is compared to the natural variability of the last thousand years,” said Marchitto, also an associate professor in CU-Boulder’s geological sciences department. “We found that modern Fram Strait water temperatures are well outside the natural bounds.”

A paper on the study will be published in the Jan. 28 issue of Science. The study was supported by the German Research Foundation; the Academy of Sciences, Humanities and Literature in Mainz, Germany; and the Norwegian Research Council.

Other study co-authors included Kirstin Werner and Evguenia Kandiano of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, Steffen Sorensen, Katarzyna Zamelczyk, Katrine Husum and Morten Hald from the University of Tromso in Norway and Gereon Budeus of the Alfred Wegener Institute of Polar and Marine Research in Bremerhaven, Germany.

Since continuous meteorological and oceanographic data for the Fram Strait reach back only 150 years, the team drilled ocean sediment cores dating back 2,000 years to determine past water temperatures. The researchers used microscopic, shelled protozoan organisms called foraminifera — which prefer specific water temperatures at depths of roughly 150 to 650 feet — as tiny thermometers.

In addition, the team used a second, independent method that involved analyzing the chemical composition of the foraminifera shells to reconstruct past water temperatures in the Fram Strait, said Marchitto.

The Fram Strait branch of the North Atlantic Current is the major carrier of oceanic heat to the Arctic Ocean. In the eastern part of the strait, relatively warm and salty water enters the Arctic. Fed by the Gulf Stream Current, the North Atlantic Current provides ice-free conditions adjacent to Svalbard even in winter, said Marchitto.

“Cold seawater is critical for the formation of sea ice, which helps to cool the planet by reflecting sunlight back to space,” said Marchitto. “Sea ice also allows Arctic air temperatures to be very cold by forming an insulating blanket over the ocean. Warmer waters could lead to major sea ice loss and drastic changes for the Arctic.”

The rate of Arctic sea ice decline appears to be accelerating due to positive feedbacks between the ice, the Arctic Ocean and the atmosphere, Marchitto said. As Arctic temperatures rise, summer ice cover declines, more solar heat is absorbed by the ocean and additional ice melts. Warmer water may delay freezing in the fall, leading to thinner ice cover in winter and spring, making the sea ice more vulnerable to melting during the next summer.

Air temperatures in Greenland have risen roughly 7 degrees F in the past several decades, thought to be due primarily to an increase in Earth’s greenhouse gases, according to CU-Boulder scientists.

“We must assume that the accelerated decrease of the Arctic sea ice cover and the warming of the ocean and atmosphere of the Arctic measured in recent decades are in part related to an increased heat transfer from the Atlantic,” said Spielhagen.

###

===============================================================

This statement prompts some things I’d point out that temper it:

“Air temperatures in Greenland have risen roughly 7 degrees F in the past several decades”.

In those remote locations like Nuuk, Greenland, what have we there? Remote pockets of humanity. Humanity building little cities of warmth in the cold Arctic, growing cities:

With 15,469 inhabitants as of 2010, Nuuk is the fastest-growing town in Greenland, with migrants from the smaller towns and settlements reinforcing the trend. Together with Tasiilaq, it is the only town in the Sermersooq municipality exhibiting stable growth patterns over the last two decades. The population increased by over a quarter relative to the 1990 levels, and by nearly 16 percent relative to the 2000 levels.

Nuuk population dynamics

Nuuk population growth dynamics in the last two decades. Source: Statistics Greenland

Nuuk is not only a growing city, where UHI might now be a factor (but don’t take my word for it, see what NASA had to say about it at AGU this year), it is also a place where the official GHCN thermometers used by NASA are right next to human influences…like  turboprop jet exhaust, such as this one in Nuuk’s airport right on the tarmac:

Nuuk Airport looking Southwest Image: Panaramio via Google Earth 

Nuuk Airport, Stevenson Screen. Image from Webshots – click to enlarge 

Hmmm, I wonder what happened in Nuuk? The plot below is from NASA GISS (see it yourself here).  That “instant global warming” line seems out of character for natural variation in Nuuk. Note the data discontinuity. Often that suggests a station move and/or a change in station environment.

Sometimes a line like that with indicates airport construction near the thermometer, something I documented here.

And here’s the interesting thing. Nuuk is just one data point, one “raging red” anomaly in the sparsely spaced hands-on-human-measured NASA GISS surface temperature dataset for the Arctic. The patterns of warm pockets of humanity with airports and GHCN stations repeat themselves all over the Arctic, because as anyone who has visited the Arctic knows, aviation is the lifeline of these remote communities. And where do they measure the weather data? At the airport of course. Aviation doesn’t work otherwise.

See my complete report on the weird temperatures from Nuuk here. And while you are at it, read my report about the weird temperatures from Svalbaard, another warm single data point from NASA GISS. Interestingly, at that station a local citizen did some science and proved the UHI effect at the airport.

Yes these are just two examples. But there is no denying these facts:

  • Remote communities in the Arctic are islands of anthropogenic warmth
  • These communities rely of aviation as a lifeline
  • The weather is measured at these airports, it is required for safety
  • Airports release huge amounts of waste heat, from exhaust, de-icing, terminal buildings, and even tarmac in the sun.
  • The majority of GHCN weather stations (used by NASA GISS) in the Arctic are at airports.

Remember Nuuk and Svalbarrd’s thermometers, and then ask Jim Hansen why NASA GISS, a “space studies agency”, doesn’t use satellite data but instead relies upon a surface record that another division of NASA says likely has significant UHI effects that NASA GISS doesn’t filter out sensibly (they only allow for 0.05°C downward adjustment).

And finally, can you really trust data from an organization that takes incoming data for that station and shifts it more than an entire degree C in the past, making a new trend? See the difference between “raw” (which really isn’t raw, it has a scads of adjustments already from NOAA) compared to the GISS final output in this chart:

The data is downloaded from GISS for the station, datasets 1 and 2 were used (raw-combined for this location and homogenized) which are available from the station selector via a link to data below the charts they make on the GISS website. The data is plotted up to the data continuity break, and again after. The trend lines are plotted to the data continuity break, and there’s no trend in the raw data for the last 100+ years.

The curious thing is that there’s no trend in the raw data at Nuuk until you do either (or both) of two things:

1. You use GISS homogenized data to plot the trend

2. You use the data after the discontinuity to plot the trend

I believe the data discontinuity represents a station move, one that exposed it to a warmer local environment. And clearly, by examining the GISS data for Nuuk, you can see that GISS adds adjustments that are not part of the measured reality. What justification could there possibly be to adjust the temperatures of the past downwards? What justification in a growing community (as shown by the population curve) could there be for doing an adjustment that is reverse of waste energy UHI?

0 0 votes
Article Rating

Discover more from Watts Up With That?

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

154 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
kadaka (KD Knoebel)
January 29, 2011 10:29 pm

From izen on January 29, 2011 at 7:54 am:

There is no archaeological or documentary evidence for vineyards that far North, all 46 of the documented vineyards of the period are in the Southern third of England, below Cambridge.

That does seem to be an important point. But that information should have the full context, as when it is stated elsewhere.
Reference 1:

At the time of the compilation of the Domesday Survey in the late eleventh century, vineyards were recorded in 46 places in southern England, from East Anglia through to modern-day Somerset.

But what is the Domesday Survey (aka Domesday Book)?
Reference 2:

Domesday Book is a detailed survey of the land held by William the Conqueror and his people, the earliest surviving public record, and a hugely important historical resource.

Thus one needs to know about William the Conqueror (Reference 3), and also the history of Scotland (Reference 4). From this, it becomes clear that the Domesday Book didn’t concern Scotland, as the land of William the Conqueror and Scotland were separate entities.
Thus your ’46 documented vineyards’ is meaningless when trying to disprove the existence of vineyards in Scotland during the Medieval Warming Period.
Note also the following bits of commentary about the Domesday Book (Reference 5):

It is obvious that, both in its values and in its measurements, the survey’s reckoning is very crude.
—–
To a large extent, it comes down to the king’s knowing where he should look when he needed to raise money. It therefore includes sources of income but not sinks of expenditure such as castles…
—–
On the other hand, Darby points out that “when this great wealth of data is examined more closely, perplexities and difficulties arise.”[8] One problem is that the clerks who compiled this document “were but human; they were frequently forgetful or confused.” The use of roman numerals also led to countless mistakes. Darby states, “Anyone who attempts an arithmetical exercise in Roman numerals soon sees something of the difficulties that faced the clerks.”[8] But more importantly are the numerous obvious omissions, and ambiguities in the presentation of the material.

Thus the presented number of “documented vineyards” needs to be placed in perspective. Some might have wanted to hide assets from “the Conqueror.” There could have been vineyards that weren’t producing income thus weren’t documented. For those reasons and more, that “46” number looks like an undercount.
Now back to you:

Even during the Roman warm period there is scant evidence of vineyards and wine manufacture, certainly none further north than the middle of the country.
In fact while there is evidence of SOMETHING been grown by methods that the Romans used for vines, very little pollen from grape vines is found and no manufacturing tools or utensils.

Nah, not quite. From a definitive-sounding source (link) comes this bit from “The History of English Wine Production”:

The Romans liked their wine – whether home grown or imported. After invading Britain in AD 43, wine drinking became more commonplace and whenever Roman villas, houses and garrisons have been excavated, there is nearly always archaeological evidence of wine amphorae and drinking cups, and occasionally grape pips and stems of bunches of grapes.
Recent archaeological investigations in Northamptonshire have uncovered evidence to suggest that vineyards were established on a commercial scale during the Roman occupation. Initial surveys at a 35-hectare Romano-British site at Wollaston in the Nene Valley (near Wellingborough), has revealed deposits of grape vine pollen dating from this time

It says at the bottom of the complete history:

Attributed to Stephen Skelton MW, author of ‘The UK Vineyards Guide 2010’, published by http://www.lulu.com – further information available here

You may consider that book Reference 6, and for only $34.67 (paperback) you can confirm that is indeed the source. Note the finding of grape vine pollen has been mentioned.
Reference 7 is “Roman vineyards in Britain: finds from the Nene Valley and new research,” originally published in the September 2000 issue of Antiquity. As mentioned here:

Antiquity is an international peer-reviewed journal of world archaeology. The journal is published quarterly in March, June, September and December. Antiquity is read by archaeology professionals and enthusiasts worldwide.

From Ref. 7, concerning those Wollaston vineyards:

In Britain, Roman viticulture has generally been assumed although the palaeobotanical and archaeological evidence has been ambiguous (Williams 1977). The trenches at Wollaston conformed to a pattern of vine cultivation, pastinatio, described in some detail by Columella and Pliny (Pliny XVII.166). The first vineyard at Wollaston comprised at least 6 km of pastinatio trenches, supporting 4000 vines and yielding 10,500 litres of white wine (based upon typical yield values) with total production from the area being probably closer to 30,000 (excluding Grendon). It would appear that the Nene Valley was a major area of wine production and although it is uncertain who the wine was produced for, links to other trades such as the pottery industries of the Nene valley should perhaps be sought.

Previously discovered evidence is mentioned:

With Wollaston providing one model of a British Roman vineyard it is worthwhile considering how widespread viticulture was in Roman Britain. Previously excavated possible vineyard sites include Grendon (Jackson 1995), Stanton Low in Buckinghamshire (Woodfield 1989), North Thoresby in Lincolnshire (Webster et al. 1967) and Gloucester (Medland 1894).

Thus there is ample evidence of grape vines and vineyards in Britain during the Roman Warm Period, and quite a lot of wine making.
More on the pollen:

Samples were taken from a sealed ditch within the area of the trenches (Brown & Meadows forthcoming). An unusually large pollen sum (1000 total land pollen) was used in order to increase the frequency of rare types. [CUT: Info about other pollens found] An unusual feature was a low percentage of Grape Vine (Vitis type) pollen (0.5-0.7% TLP). A second group of four similar trenches were identified 2.5 km away to the south by magnetometry and confirmed by excavation (500 m to the northwest of those identified by Jackson in Grendon). Samples from a well in this area revealed a similar open landscape with both arable and pastoral indicators and Vitis (0.4% TLP). The British palynological record of Vitis type pollen is sparse, occasional grains being recorded from Roman and Medieval levels.

While it is noted the amount of Vitis pollen found is low, that it was there is still significant. Further research was indicated.

The project (PALVIT) has two major aims; firstly to increase our understanding of Vitis taphonomy, and secondly to reassess the record of Roman viticulture in the Nene valley and Britain as a whole. This is involving field-studies of Vitis taphonomy, re-excavation and pollen analysis of new areas of the Wollaston complex and a re-evaluation of the published record. Three organic vineyards in Leicestershire, East Sussex and South Somerset have been instrumented with pollen traps of standard design. One of the reasons for undertaking these studies is that there has been confusion over the pollination mechanism of Vitis, and it appears that although it is fundamentally wind pollinated, insects (largely flies and beetles) may play an important role (Branties 1978; Kimura et al. 1998). There is at present little data on typical pollen dispersal distances. Excavations at Wollaston will take place in the summer (2000) and we are currently undertaking a review of the published literature including the incidence of Vitis in British pollen diagrams.

Thus basically even though the amounts found were small, not enough is known to know if that’s all they should have expected to find from an ancient vineyard.
Now, you had said:

Even during the Roman warm period there is scant evidence of vineyards and wine manufacture, certainly none further north than the middle of the country.

As to the last part, ever hear about Hadrian’s Wall (Reference 8), aka the Roman Wall? Romans to the south, “barbarians” to the north (Scotland), and the Romans were the wine drinkers who brought the grape vines with them. Thus your last part is not only not surprising, it in no way contradicts what I wrote.
Thus we’re down to the last little bit, where you said there is found “…no manufacturing tools or utensils.” The Romans were there, drinking wine, with their wine drinking-related utensils and other equipment. I don’t know what sort of “manufacturing tools” you’re looking for, the Roman winemaking method (Reference 9) is very basic, even crude. Earthenware jugs that would break. Bits of wood and rope, that can rot, be burned, perhaps reused for something else. If you’re looking for metal, remember that metal was scarce, and metal can be easily reshaped and re-purposed. With winemaking abandoned after the Romans left, I don’t see why you’d expect the equipment to survive the post-abandonment recycling of unused equipment, let alone the decay befalling what was left to rot.
Now to your last paragraph:

It is certain that the present magnitude and regional extent of grape production from vineyards for wine is now greater in Britain than at ANY time during its historical past.

Given the increases in population, increases in developed arable land, better varieties, improved agricultural techniques… Seems possible. And it says NOTHING that indicates the temperatures now are greater than, or even equal to, those in the Medieval and Roman Warm Periods.
So, do you actually have any evidence that challenges what Sallie Baliunas said about winemaking in Scotland during the Medieval Warm Period? Haven’t seen any yet.

sdcougar
January 30, 2011 7:50 pm

“wayne says:
January 27, 2011 at 1:43 pm
Why is it always Boulder?
The mountain water?”
Haven’t you heard of COORS ?… beer with “pure mountain spring water”

Gary Pearse
January 31, 2011 12:47 pm

You know, if global warming is a reality, there is no need for temperature to be minutely or grandly adjusted here and there. If the pot is on the fire, it will eventually get hot enough so that there is no doubt about it. This has been going on since about 1980. Surely a third of a century further on, we shouldn’t need such manipulations…..unless things aren’t going where they were supposed to have gone by now.

February 12, 2011 10:03 am

yes i believe it is global warming vbut these new creatures are melting and survived the last ice age and have lived threw freezing in my belief we find out how they coimmunicate to tell us how they lived threw it and i believe that the people can stop the global warming they lived just like we survive to communicate to tell us something .IT is very important we communicate with wat we think is the oldest before the end of this year. it may sound crazy about my beliefs but these creATURES are not from this world or area there is a reason they need our help and we need there s finding out wat it is the lord will know so lets figure this out.The knwe cretausios shell they found in russian lakes now they have kits you can by from scholastics and other book compaines who sell eggs like in the rock coral and frogds to grow of there own and they are either it or alien vs predator waitin on the right prey so when handling and nt hurting us they ar tryin to communicate okay so we need to do so thankyou and thankyou if you believe me goodbye. email me with anyconserns i would like to know the out come also. jaime rayanne mcclenning jackson 1988

1 5 6 7