Scientific American still running false warming story

And the domino newscloning effect continues…

UPDATE: At 5:30PM PST, it appears SciAm finally realized they’d been had and pulled it.

Of course earlier today, the Guardian and other publications saw the problem and pulled this story:

AAAS withdraws “impossible” global warming paper

Hours later here’s the story still running on SciAm:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=climate-change-crop-shortfall

h/t to WUWT reader “interglacial”.

This just goes to illustrate how one unchecked story, gets into the top science news publications, with apparently nobody questioning the claims.

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January 20, 2011 12:53 pm

Scott Mandia says:
January 20, 2011 at 6:31 am
“Peter Gleick is correct.”

So you agree that Gleick was correct in his use of the term “denier”?

jaymam
January 20, 2011 1:08 pm

gavin at realclimate is currently saying that the report has errors.
Meantime Scientific American have republished the report.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2011/01/getting-things-right/
gavin 20 January 2011
Last Monday, I was asked by a journalist whether a claim in a new report from a small NGO made any sense. The report was mostly focused on the impacts of climate change on food production – clearly an important topic, and one where public awareness of the scale of the risk is low. However, the study was based on a mistaken estimate of how large global warming would be in 2020. I replied to the journalist (and indirectly to the NGO itself, as did other scientists) that no, this did not make any sense, and that they should fix the errors before the report went public on Thursday. For various reasons, the NGO made no changes to their report. The press response to their study has therefore been almost totally dominated by the error at the beginning of the report, rather than the substance of their work on the impacts. This public relations debacle has lessons for NGOs, the press, and the public.
The erroneous claim in the study was that the temperature anomaly in 2020 would be 2.4ºC above pre-industrial. This is obviously very different from the IPCC projections:

January 20, 2011 2:33 pm

[Snip. You know why. ~dbs, mod.]

George E. Smith
January 20, 2011 2:56 pm

“”””” Gavin Schmidt, for example, a NASA climatologist, quickly wrote: “2.4C by 2020 (which is 1.4C in the next 10 years – something like six to seven times the projected rate of warming) has no basis in fact.” “””””
The above was found under Peter Gleick’s name over on some web site he linked to; well it had a ghastly green background to the web page; almost made me sea sick.
So I presume (lacking any explanation) that Gavin Schmitt actually said :- “2.4C by 2020 has no basis in fact.” and that also presumably Peter Gleick; also lacking further explanation said :- “Gavin Schmidt, for example, a NASA climatologist, quickly wrote: “…” (which is 1.4C in the next 10 years – something like six to seven times the projected rate of warming) ”
Now my Gregorian adjusted Calendar says that this is the year 2011, so that means in 9 years it will be 2020, so the Temperature will go up 2.4 deg C in nine years, and then drop a whole degree in the next year to get down to only 1.4 deg C rise in ten years.
Yes that sound pretty reasonable to me Peter. Now how did you do that analysis ?

David L
January 20, 2011 6:00 pm

I am not the least bit surprised that Scientific American is telling lies. They, and their supported Forum Physics have an appalling attitude to anything that goes against the established ‘science’. My interest is in the Electric Universe. This is a part of Plasma Cosmology of which the Physics Forum ‘mentor’ (read Mod) had to say…..

It is not an emerging area of cosmology, but it is nonsense and an emerging area of crackpottery.
Note that this has now been added to the list of topics banned at PF.
http://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=5929

This is the link to the post where it was said.
We have seen this time and time again is so many spheres, especially where a new idea threatens the funding and livelihood, and cosy club atmosphere, of the mainstream scientists who have completely forgotten that science is about questioning all that is around us. I was appalled.

January 21, 2011 12:29 am

Lindzen made basically the same mistake as the Argentinian NGO did. He said:
(http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/17/richard-lindzen-a-case-against-precipitous-climate-action/ )
“the greenhouse forcing from man made greenhouse gases is already about 86% of what one expects from a doubling of CO2 (with about half coming from methane, nitrous oxide, freons and ozone), and alarming predictions depend on models for which the sensitivity to a doubling for CO2 is greater than 2C which implies that we should already have seen much more warming than we have seen thus far, even if all the warming we have seen so far were due to man.”
He makes the same two errors as the NGO – neglecting the negative aerosol forcings and the ‘warming in the pipeline’ in this calculation (except using a different time window: 2010 vs 2020).
My commentary is here:
http://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com/2011/01/20/food-gap-ngo-2-4-degrees-2020-no-way/

Jeff Alberts
January 21, 2011 7:49 am

Dave D. says:
January 19, 2011 at 6:54 pm
Michael Shermer, publisher of Skeptic Magazine, does a “skeptics” column in each issue of S.A. He admitted to being persuaded about the validity of AGW after seeing Gore’s movie. For a skeptic of his caliber that was a real come-down. Skeptic Magazine does some very credible stuff. I guess that was the price Shermer had to pay to become a regular in S.A.

I noted that too when it happened. I wrote to him expressing my dismay at his lack of skepticism, but the letter went unanswered.

Jeff Alberts
January 21, 2011 7:50 am

Bart Verheggen says:
January 21, 2011 at 12:29 am
Lindzen made basically the same mistake as the Argentinian NGO did.

Which just goes to show that even the most prominent climate scientists don’t have a good handle on what really goes on with climate.

RockyRoad
January 21, 2011 9:24 am

Bad idea–sequestering CO2 out of the immediate carbon cycle precludes it from participating in renewable energy, practically forever. Their whole premise is based on the false theory that CO2 is the only global-warming culprit. In other words, they have their ladder against the wrong wall.

Michael
January 21, 2011 9:07 pm

“This just goes to illustrate how one unchecked story, gets into the top science news publications, with apparently nobody questioning the claims. ”
What it goes to show is that everyone is human and that it was climate scientists themselves that corrected the mistake, and quickly. In fact it was noticed before publication but it still got out. Climate Science integrity is intact and shows that it will correct and learn from its mistakes.
In stark contrast, has their been a correction and apology from Richard Lindzen and everybody who ran his story? Hypocritical much? He has made the same exact error, and even though it has been pointed out in the past has made the same claims for 3 years. But the skeptic religion never question what their evangelists say so he can continue doing it, no such integrity on that side.

wayne
January 22, 2011 4:44 am

Smokey says:
January 20, 2011 at 11:18 am
Scientific American flipped 180° when a German publisher bought it in 1986.
Since most Germans are hopeless Greens, and since Greens are Lysenkoist watermelons, they ruined the science aspect of Scientific American.

Great! So it’s really been Scientific Deutsch magazine since I dropped my subscription?
One more thing I thought that was… now isn’t. ;•)

January 22, 2011 8:19 pm

Michael says:
“Climate Science integrity is intact and shows that it will correct and learn from its mistakes.”
What a load of horse manure. Michael Mann’s Hokey Stick has been thoroughly debunked. Thirteen years after he published MBH98, he still refuses to disclose his data, methodology and metadata. Where’s his “integrity”??
If it were not for projection, Michael wouldn’t have anything to say.
There is no such thing as “Climate Science integrity.” None. It doesn’t exist.

Michael
January 22, 2011 8:47 pm

Smokey you love using the word debunked without any actual proof. Michael Manns hockey stick has been proved correct numerous times by different studies with different data. Heres one (I could provide more). Data is freely available for you to make your own.
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/ammann/millennium/refs/Wahl_ClimChange2007.pdf
Contrast this to Lindzen using IPCC information to prove them wrong by leaving out anything that does not prove his point. Conveniently selective. Also where does he get the wild assumption that we are in a natural warming period? From what I understand our current orbit, solar and volcanic activity means we should be in a cooling period (so our warming is doubly concerning). Wheres your proof for that?
Climate Science integrity 1
Skeptic science integrity 0

Engchamp
January 23, 2011 12:26 pm

One possible reason for some of the amateurish garbage printed in the likes of SA (e.g. – they are not alone), is that the latter can no longer find scientists to become journalists. It is far easier today to recruit young people who have attained high class degrees in “journalism” whilst at university (college); not so 20 years ago.

John M
January 23, 2011 7:10 pm

Michael says:
January 22, 2011 at 8:47 pm
<Michael Mann's hockey stick has been proved correct numerous times by different studies with different data. Heres one (I could provide more). Data is freely available for you to make your own.
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/ammann/millennium/refs/Wahl_ClimChange2007.pdf
Good grief. You declare victory with Wahl and Ammann!?!?!? The paper that had to be resurrected using all the strength and power of the hockey machine?
You must be joking.
http://en.wordpress.com/tag/wahl-and-ammann/
On the other hand, keep bringing it up. It’s the gift that keeps on giving!

otter17
January 28, 2011 12:52 pm

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jan/25/case-study-climate-science-integrity
A quote from the above link:
” Ironically, Watts’ blog also ran a story which was highly critical of Scientific American for initially publishing an article containing the FEU errors. However, just a few hours later, Scientific American ran a new story correcting the FEU errors. One wonders when Watts will correct his own blog’s propagation of Lindzen’s errors. ”
Has there been a retraction here at WUWT? I looked, but maybe I am missing it. If somebody finds it, give me the link.
[Reply: To get current, read the article comments. This has already been discussed. ~dbs, mod.]

otter17
January 28, 2011 12:57 pm

Quote:
“And the domino newscloning effect continues…
UPDATE: At 5:30PM PST, it appears SciAm finally realized they’d been had and pulled it. ”
No, SciAm realized that a genuine mistake was made. And sarcastic comments like the newscloning remark above are incredibly hypocritical when this blog often posts news articles as well. There appears to be a strong bias when statements like this are made.

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