WUWT readers may remember way back when…I posted this from Joe D’Aleo:
Warming Trend: PDO And Solar Correlate Better Than CO2
Joe wrote then:
Clearly the US annual temperatures over the last century have correlated far better with cycles in the sun and oceans than carbon dioxide. The correlation with carbon dioxide seems to have vanished or even reversed in the last decade.
There’s a new paper by Paulo Cesar Soares in the International Journal of Geosciences supporting Joe’s idea, and it is full and open access. See link below.
Warming Power of CO2 and H2O: Correlations with Temperature Changes
Author: Paulo Cesar Soares
ABSTRACT
The dramatic and threatening environmental changes announced for the next decades are the result of models whose main drive factor of climatic changes is the increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Although taken as a premise, the hypothesis does not have verifiable consistence. The comparison of temperature changes and CO2 changes in the atmosphere is made for a large diversity of conditions, with the same data used to model climate changes. Correlation of historical series of data is the main approach. CO2 changes are closely related to temperature.
Warmer seasons or triennial phases are followed by an atmosphere that is rich in CO2, reflecting the gas solving or exsolving from water, and not photosynthesis activity. Interannual correlations between the variables are good. A weak dominance of temperature changes precedence, relative to CO2 changes, indicate that the main effect is the CO2 increase in the atmosphere due to temperature rising. Decreasing temperature is not followed by CO2 decrease, which indicates a different route for the CO2 capture by the oceans, not by gas re-absorption. Monthly changes have no correspondence as would be expected if the warming was an important absorption-radiation effect of the CO2 increase.
The anthropogenic wasting of fossil fuel CO2 to the atmosphere shows no relation with the temperature changes even in an annual basis. The absence of immediate relation between CO2 and temperature is evidence that rising its mix ratio in the atmosphere will not imply more absorption and time residence of energy over the Earth surface. This is explained because band absorption is nearly all done with historic CO2 values. Unlike CO2, water vapor in the atmosphere is rising in tune with temperature changes, even in a monthly scale. The rising energy absorption of vapor is reducing the outcoming long wave radiation window and amplifying warming regionally and in a different way around the globe.
…
From the conclusion:
The main conclusion one arrives at the analysis is that CO2 has not a causal relation with global warming and it is not powerful enough to cause the historical changes in temperature that were observed. The main argument is the absence of immediate correlation between CO2 changes preceding temperature either for global or local changes. The greenhouse effect of the CO2 is very small compared to the water vapor because the absorbing effect is already realized with its historical values. So, the reduction of the outcoming long wave radiation window is not a consequence of current enrichment or even of a possible double ratio of CO2. The absence of correlation between temperature changes and the immense and variable volume of CO2 waste by fuel burning is explained by the weak power of additional carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to reduce the outcoming window of long wave radiation. This effect is well performed by atmosphere humidity due to known increase insolation and vapor content in atmosphere.
The role of vapor is reinforced when it is observed that the regions with a great difference between potential and actual specific humidity are the ones with high temperature increase, like continental areas in mid to high latitudes. The main implication is that temperature increase predictions based on CO2 driving models are not reliable.
If the warmer power of solar irradiation is the independent driver for decadal and multidecadal cycles, the expected changes in insolation and no increase in green- house power may imply the recurrence of multidecadal cool phase, recalling the years of the third quarter of past century, before a new warming wave. The last decade stable temperature seems to be the turning point.
Full Text (PDF, 1794KB) PP.102-112 DOI: 10.4236/ijg.2010.13014
Why do people still forget that CO2 as the agent was chosen not for its inherent capabilities of re-emitting certain ranges of the IR spectrum but because of its political PR value to make policy change in a certain political direction.
The likes of soot, particulates, mono oxide, sulfur oxide, sulfur dioxide, et al, was actually used as drivers in the 70’s, 80’s. This all changed dramatically due to the fact that policy change to remove such “evil” went fast as hell. Before ’95 the reduction in industry and cargo traffic was pretty astounding. There was F All waste left even from the emissions from diesel combustion at the turn of the century even, and in some countries in EU that previously didn’t have the stringent regulations on diesel fuel it took less ‘an ten years.
CO2 was, and is, the only “evil” emission left that is emitted by our human industry that is still emitted in what can, in relation to all the other substances, be said to be emitted in large quantities. However, the emissions per emitting engine/object, is just a fraction of what the same type of engine/object emitted just some 25 years ago. This is why, apparently, the crazy hippies perceive the amount of people on this planet to be the problem, because per capita we emit less, but as a whole, OMG who’s to say? Of course rational people say proper statistics that show people adapting to reality, but the crazed climate hippies shrieks “Doomsday!”
HEY guys! the hockystick is backwards.
Brian H
Grammer/Bingo – at first i thought it was just me.
“Jim Cripwell says:
January 1, 2011 at 12:09 pm
The ones who are really stuck on stupid are the Royal Society, The American Physical Society,….”
The following may be on interest to you by the Institute of Physics:
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmsctech/memo/climatedata/uc3902.htm
Below is the first of 13 points.
“What are the implications of the disclosures for the integrity of scientific research?
1. The Institute is concerned that, unless the disclosed e-mails are proved to be forgeries or adaptations, worrying implications arise for the integrity of scientific research in this field and for the credibility of the scientific method as practised in this context.”
Wait a minute…why should U.S. temperatures correlate best with CO2 in the first place? And what allows the assumption that the U.S. land mass is a significant or representative part of the globe?
It intuitively makes perfect sense that the U.S. temperatures should correlate very well with the AMO and PDO given that it is flanked by two of the world’s largest oceans. Thus, there’s no news here if you think about it. But why should the lack of a strong relationship between CO2 and temperature in the U.S. invalidate the relationship between the two worldwide?
Paulo says.
———–
Decreasing temperature is not followed by CO2 decrease, which indicates a different route for the CO2 capture by the oceans, not by gas re-absorption
———–
The English is so bad this paper is inconoeehebsible.
But this claim looks just plain wrong. If the oceans give up CO2 on warming then they must do the opposite on cooling.
R. Gates says:
January 1, 2011 at 11:54 am
“….Solar insolation has not increased during the period in question and temperature change in the oceans offers no long term answer either as that heat must ultimately come from an increase in solar insolation (or increased GH gas activity)……”
You must have missed the article:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/22/sorces-solar-spectral-surprise-uv-declined-tsi-constant/
It would appear that although TSI is constant the constituent frequencies can vary considerably. This could explain the lack of warming in the oceans due to the shorter wavelengths dropping considerably while the longer wavelengths that do not penetrate the ocean more than a a few millimeters may increase. So simplistic reasoning based on the repeated mantra that ‘the TSI and insolation haven’t changed’ are based on shaky foundations.
@highflight56433
I think the greater problem is the simpler element hydrogen monoxide which has not really been given much scrutiny in the popular press.
It is known to be in high concentrations particularly near the end of the year in December reaching a peak just after the winter solstice (at least in the Northern Hemisphere). It is known to have very impressive warming properties.
It is especially bad when grouped together in chains of long molecules.
Natural cycles modulate the gradual GHG warming so of course they stand out over short time periods. The journal this paper appeared in brand new and has no track record and so no credibility.
Too bad this paper is published in such a low tier journal. Also a shame it is written in such stilted English (obviously not written by someone with good English skills).
Aside from that, it presents some interesting interpretations of the correlations between temperatures and CO2.
I wish Mr. Soares luck in getting his ideas greater distribution and hope that he is able to tighten up some of his correlations with more, and hopefully, better data (GISS and, to a lesser extent, NOAA temp data are hardly the best set to use).
Steve, Happy New Year, we just had a HUGE Co2 increase the the last 3-4 days here in upstate NY!! the 70 inches of snow has all but MELTED, THANK GOD. But getting ready for the next round of CO2 dropping in the next couple days GEEZ, Latitude, I just saw R Gates comment on the freerepublic site, well they want population control, they’re going to get it?
I am becoming a big fan of Brasil 🙂
LazyTeenager says:
January 1, 2011 at 1:18 pm
“Joe’s graph is not convincing since the temperature change attributed to CO2 is small over a long time scale.
Comparing that to the large cyclical short time scale changes dies not makes sense.”
So you acknowledge that there is no correlation in the time scale of that graph. In other words, you agree with Joe D’Aleo. Correct?
Sorry, that should of been Happy New Year to Anthony
CO2 has virtually nothing to do with the climate of the planet. Man-made global warming is the biggest scientific fraud in the history of the world.
I guess we will need a few more thousand dead bodies this winter to prove this point.
Britain’s cold weather: Deaths Soar as Winter Takes its Toll
“Deaths leapt by up to a fifth amid the longest spell of bitter weather in recent years, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.
Undertakers have reported the busiest winter for several years, with some even forced to take on extra staff to cope.
It comes in the wake of an outcry over the deaths of an elderly couple from Northampton, whose bodies lay in their freezing home, unnoticed for several days.
Opposition parties described the picture painted by the figures as a “national disgrace”, warning that many elderly people are suffering in silence, afraid to turn up the heating in a winter, often missing out on extra winter payments.
Preliminary figures show that 1,506 deaths were registered in Scotland in the first week of January, 21 per cent above the average for the corresponding week over last five years.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/6997427/Britains-cold-weather-deaths-soar-as-winter-takes-its-toll.html
rogerthesurf,
Yes the enormity of the hoax and scam is breathtaking. But let’s be clear, it’s purpose is, according to the evil Canadian Maurice Strong,
“We may get to the point where the only way of saving the world will be for industrial civilization to collapse.
and he should know because he set up UNEP, the Rio conference (apologies to Brasil) and the IPCC. It his intent to destroy industrial society, for his personal benefit and [self-snip].
Regarding faster release of CO2 by a warmer global surface and slower absorption by a cooler global surface, it might be helpful to think about the relative densities of CO2 and the surface, and that the earth has a gravitational field.
Some climate scientists and our government are making us less safe by lying to us about global warming. More people are dieing from cold than from terrorists. They are putting our lives in danger. This isn’t funny anymore. Someone should be sued for involuntary manslaughter or at least fired for incompetence.
A newborn baby child died in Brooklyn because we were made less prepared for colder snowier winters due to the solar minimum and global cooling. No one on TV is warning us of the real reasons for the successively brutal winters and helping us prepare for them.
“JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — A record number of manatee died in Florida this year, and those who track the threatened species are concerned.
According to the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, 699 manatees were found dead between Jan. 1 and Dec. 5 — the most deaths recorded in a single year. State officials said it’s likely the cold temperatures contributed nearly 250 of the deaths, and may have contributed to hundreds more.”
http://www.news4jax.com/news/26325206/detail.html
Environmentalists love wildlife so much, I just thought I’d point this out for them. Nearly 700 dead manatees in 2010 from cold.
It’s good in a way. They are always pestering us about making too much wake with our boats in Manatee zones down here in SW Florida. So I guess the more dead Manatee deaths from cold climate conditions the better. Many of us boaters down here could care less if all the manatees went extinct due to natural cold conditions.
In an ironic twist, The Coal fired power plants, even the ones down for maintenance, are mandated to provide warm waters to keep the manatees from dieing.
Another paper which neatly falsifies that ‘CO2 drives temperature’ conjecture. As the CO2 absorption is almost filled, no surprise that extra CO2 has little effect.
Came across another interesting paper on the same site which attempts to show that Trenbarth’s ‘energy gap’ is a myth – it’s a travesty that he couldn’t see it!
Recent Energy Balance of Earth Open Access
Author(s) – Robert S. Knox, David H. Douglass
ABSTRACT
“A recently published estimate of Earth’s global warming trend is 0.63 ± 0.28 W/m2, as calculated from ocean heat content anomaly data spanning 1993-2008. This value is not representative of the recent (2003-2008) warming/cooling rate because of a “flattening” that occurred around 2001-2002.
Using only 2003-2008 data from Argo floats, we find by four different algorithms that the recent trend ranges from –0.010 to –0.161 W/m2 with a typical error bar of ±0.2 W/m2. These results fail to support the existence of a frequently-cited large positive computed radiative imbalance.”
Full paper available here:-
http://www.scirp.org/Journal/PaperDownload.aspx?FileName=IJG20100300001_98861471.pdf&paperID=3446
Obviously!: There is no correlations between politics and climate! LOL!!!!
New Years Resolution.
Donate to support this wonderful web site which has provided a coordinated forum to try to save the world from destroying hope for the masses.
Although some of the article makes sense (a positive NAO increased temperatures in NE Europe, mainly by sending more water vapour over the continent), some caution is warranted: the monthly to seasonal changes in CO2 levels are not more than +/- 8 ppmv even over the areas with the largest changes in vegetation growth/decay. The direct absorbing effect of a 16 ppmv change (full column) is about 0.05°C, completely undetectable in the noise of everything that influences the temperature record locally and globally. Thus it is no wonder that the researchers didn’t find a correlation on short term changes.
If there is more influence of CO2 on temperature for longer term and huger changes in CO2, remains an open question, but it doesn’t look bright for a huge influence…
Roger the surf says
Right Roger. And, while the U.S. sits here with no drilling and no new refineries and no nukes, other countries like Brazil and Venezuela are drilling to beat heck. China, they’re going everywhere for oil and gold and rare earth minerals. Meanwhile our “one” plays golf. He may take up a fiddle next.
Bob Tisdale @ur momisugly 1:04 & 1:08
The PDO is a statistically manufactured dataset that basically represents the pattern . . .
Over the past couple of years I have posted many times the explanation for the 30 year climate “normal” as defined by national agreements. The 30 year span always ends in a zero. Now 2010 is gone and at some near point in time our “normals” will be updated. Hurray! That issue will recede.
Unfortunately for you, comments such as you have made today have no fixed date or other aspect which will lay them to rest. You will have to repeat this material until everyone everywhere learns the meaning of pattern.
Not likely, but we can hope.
“Any takers of bets as to how many authors in the rebuttal paper?”
My guess: zero. There won’t be one. Out of mercy.