New Year's Open Thread

Anthony is traveling and offline for another day or too. So [insert witty ctm like comment here] here’s another open thread for fun and amusement.

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137 thoughts on “New Year's Open Thread

  1. Happy New Year to everyone from soggy Qld where it was never meant to rain profusely again because of global warming but now it’s awash everywhere because of global warming

  2. “Anthony is traveling and offline for another day or too.”
    =========
    Should be, day or “two”, or “2”.
    Happy New Year, too all, thanks for all the hard work.
    A “snip” of this comment would make me happy 🙂
    [we can’t all be perfect all the time ~ac]

  3. What an amazing year of growth at WUWT!
    To one and all — Happy New Year!
    Now, excuse me but with six hours left to 2010, I’ve got piles of munchies and wine that need attending to. See y’all in 2011.

  4. u.k.(us) says:
    December 31, 2010 at 2:46 pm
    “Anthony is traveling and offline for another day or too.”
    =========
    Should be, day or “two”, or “2″.
    Happy New Year, too all, thanks for all the hard work.
    A “snip” of this comment would make me happy 🙂
    [we can’t all be perfect all the time ~ac]
    =============
    Should be, “Happy New Year, to all, thanks…….”, not, “….., too all,……”
    LOL

  5. To all my friends, and foes alike, I wish you nothing. But the best for the new year!
    May the climate be with you.

  6. Happy New Year to everyone at WUWT.
    I landed on an oil rig, in a very remote location offshore Western Papua, at mid day on the 31st so no whisky for this Scotsman this New Year.

  7. Happy New Year to all!
    May you have a warm globe
    and a cool head
    during the upcoming year.
    Or, should that be a cool globe
    and a warm head?
    Whichever, enjoy.

  8. Happy New to all, and thanks to Anthony and contirbuters for the fantastic web site. I for one am going to make a point to donate to this site this year. He doesn’t complain about it but he puts an emormous amount of time into this blog and I come to it every day. I’ve learned a great deal . If we all chip in a little, maybe he could spend a little less time worring about bills and an a little more laying waste to the AGW argument. Now I know that there’s a lot of us out here so however much you’d like to contribute will add up quickly.
    I’m sure Anthony will let us know when the coffers are too full. 😛

  9. On this arbitrarily chosen point in the elliptical orbit of the earth around the sun to increment the year, I wish all a safe and prosperous trip around the sun.

  10. Happy New Year to all, thanks to Anthony and the moderators for the most enjoyable scientific based blog/home on the net. Thanks to the regular posters for their wit and wisdom, and trying to identify the pitfalls for those of us who are out of their specialty when it comes to climate issues. It’s great to see differing views exposited, exposed, and rebuffed (and usually in a gentlemanly fashion).

  11. Talking with a friend working for Wash. State fisheries service I learned that for decades HOBO data loggers have been used to monitor temperatures in the water and on land. These devices make recordings every 20 seconds and past models have been used for some 40-50 years. My friend said they were originally used in railroad cars to record railcar temperatures during travel.
    So I wonder if decades of HOBO records from outdoor locations around the country have been mined for temperature data to compare with official stations.
    Here is webpage for a firm that sells these:
    http://www.microdaq.com/occ/u12/u12-012.php

  12. Happy New Year, everyone. Be careful not to put any rotten ice in your drinks tonight.
    [I’ll watch for the yellow snow – enjoy ~ac]

  13. Happy New Year to all
    intrestingly the met office is talking about space weather in the run up to the next solar maximum! And they want a new computer! oh and another 10-20 million a year dollars or pounds they don’t mind!
    Honestly read this interview;
    http://www.nature.com/news/2010/101230/full/news.2010.685.html?s=news_rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+news/rss/most_recent+(NatureNews+-+Most+recent+articles)&utm_content=Google+Reader
    seriously

  14. u.k.(us) says: December 31, 2010 at 2:46 pm
    . . .
    [we can’t all be perfect all the time ~ac]

    And your source is?
    To us all, a happy, cool, and prosperous new year (regardless of Washington, DC).
    To Anthony and the moderators, thank you. You are appreciated.

  15. Happy New Year to one and all and may the next one bring prosperity and good health. To Anthony in particular, let’s hope that this year is much better than the last one was for your family. Your resiliance deserves utmost respect. Enjoy what you can of the holiday, AND SPEND SOME TIME WITH THE FAMILY!!!!!!!
    regards
    john r

  16. Just 15 mins past midnite here in the UK. I wish all a Happy and Prosperous New Year.
    and to the warmist contingent, I hope you all can gain some wisdom in the coming year!
    as to the likes of Jones, Schmidt, Hansen et al ………I suggest a correspondence course in openness, humility and honesty would be of great benefit! – nevertheless, I hope that may you find peace and contentment and the ability to sleep at night! LOL
    cheers to all!

  17. OK, here’s a shameless plug for my time lapse video of decorating the City Of Torrance Rose Float.

    Have a Happy New Year everyone.
    Bob Diaz

  18. CTM said: “So [insert witty ctm like comment here] here’s another open thread for fun and amusement.”
    “So [HAPPY NEW YEAR TO EVERYONE AT WUWT, AND THANKS TO ANTHONY & MODS!] here’s another open thread for fun & amusement.”
    Thanks, CTM! Cheers & best, Charles the DrPH

  19. I’m sure everyone on here will be delighted that Robert Stewart Napier, Chairman of the MET Office and Thermageddonist Extraordinaire has been given a CBE in the New Years Honours List!
    Pity the MET Office can’t be relied upon to correctly forecast whether it will be hot / cold / dry / wet / calm / windy more than a couple of days in advance, even with their £30 Million Supercomputer. Otherwise Napier might have got an even better gong.
    Can our chum Phil Jones have much longer to wait?

  20. See Roy Spencer’s post Dec. 31, 2010 on Dec 11-31 on his:

    mini-debate by e-mail during the last 3 weeks between myself and Andy Dessler over the question of whether cloud feedbacks in the climate system are positive or negative.

    Dessler and Spencer Debate Cloud Feedback
    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/12/dessler-and-spencer-debate-cloud-feedback/
    Three cheers for their open debate.
    In 2008 Bjorn Lomborg asked:

    If we had an extra $75 billion to put to good use, where would we use it?

    Economists ranked benefits/costs, finding that mitigating global warming came in worst among 30 projects. See: Global Crises Solutions Costs Benefits 2009 ISBN 52174122X
    Summarized in the Copenhagen Consensus 2008
    http://copenhagenconsensus.com/Projects/Copenhagen%20Consensus%202008-1.aspx
    Bjorn Lomborg calls cost effective investment for humanitarian projects. The Copenhagen Consensus current front page highlights:
    Economic Analysis of EU ’20/20/20′ Climate Plan

    # Cost of ’20/20/20′ Policy will be in the region of €210 billion annually
    # Benefits add up to just €7 billion
    Professor Tol’s research shows. . .shows that the net cost to Europe will be in the region of €210 billion annually. This corresponds to 1.3% of GDP. . . . Using the conventional estimate that 1 tonne of carbon dioxide is likely to cause about $7 of damage, he found that the total benefits of the EU policy add up to just €7 billion. In other words, for every Euro it costs, the EU policy is likely to generate just three cents worth of benefits.

    http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/Default.aspx?ID=1431
    THE COSTS AND BENEFITS OF EU CLIMATE POLICY FOR 2020 Richard S.J. Tol
    See: Bjorn Lomborg, Smart Solutions to Climate Change: Comparing Costs and Benefits, Cambridge University Press (October 29, 2010) ISBN: 0521138566

    The Expert Panel has found that drastic carbon cuts would be the poorest way to respond to global warming. . . . ‘cap and trade’ would be possibly 10-100 times worse [than carbon taxes]. . . need to invest significantly more into R&D . . . considering policies that are not at the top of the political agenda at the present time. . . Investing about $100 billion annually would mean that we could essentially resolve the climate change problem by the end of the century . . . we all need to start seriously focusing, right now, on the most effective ways to fix global warming.

    Jesus’ stewards standard is The Parable of the Bags of Gold Matthew 25:14-29 NIV
    http://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Matthew%2025:14-29&version=NIV
    Forcing taxpayers to pour trillions of dollars into black holes with 97% loss does not appear to be a prudent investment. I endorse Lomborg’s call for $100 billion/year R&D to develop cost effective alternatives. That could provide strong returns.

  21. I two can play at that game.
    Too my to friends, happy new year two you. My wish is two make a turd friend this year.

  22. Off for some fun seeing the new year in.
    Best wishes to all. May this year be even better than the last. Happy New Year!
    James “suyts” Sexton

  23. Charles, the DMI Solar Temperature link along the right side (just above the SOHO MDI link) erroneously points to the Sea Ice page. Can you fix that? Thx!
    (Can anyone tell I’m not drinking? :^))

  24. I am very appreciative of this site and I have learned much here during this year. I became interested in this subject when I heard Dr. John Christy make a presentation to a small group in my home state several years ago, long before Climategate arrived. Though my university training was in liberal arts major and not science, I am appalled at how science is being debased by some in this overall debate. Kudos to Anthony, Charles, and all of the contributors for bringing important information to the fore in this hotly debated issue…DJ

  25. I see that NOAA have posted the sunspot number for today (at 23), since it’s just past midnight UTC. That gives us a total of 682 for the month, or an average of 22.0 for the month, virtually unchanged from November’s 21.6.

  26. Happy New Year to Anthony and everyone who participates with their great articles and discussion comments. Every day is a learning experience here, and an entertaining one.
    Looking forward to what 2011 brings. Have we reached a tipping point? Will Hansen’s head finally explode? Did Al Gore melt away permanently? Will they invent a pill for Restless Climate Syndrome? How much colder will The Warming get?

  27. So, 2010 will not likely pan out to be the warmest year in the ever-changing record books. But, the real question is this: where will 2011 rank? How cold will the first 3-4 months of 2011 be? La Nina — and a powerful one at that will persist well into Summer 2011. The SSTs globally are a LOT cooler than last year — and cooler than the 30-year mean in many spots.
    So, in my estimation and long-range prognostication, 2011 could end up being the coolest year globally in _____ years…
    Reply: I already lost my bet to Tom P about 2010. I emailed him asking how he would like to be paid, and he has not responded. I think I have a shot of winning 2011, which is a bigger bet. ~ ctm

  28. u.k.(us) says:
    December 31, 2010 at 2:46 pm
    “Anthony is traveling and offline for another day or too.”
    =========
    Should be, day or “two”, or “2″.
    Happy New Year, too all, thanks for all the hard work.
    A “snip” of this comment would make me happy 🙂
    [we can’t all be perfect all the time ~ac]
    =========
    That’s why I suggested the comment be SNIPPED.

  29. “Let’s be clear: the work of science has nothing whatever to do with consensus. Consensus is the business of politics. Science, on the contrary, requires only one investigator who happens to be right, which means that he or she has results that are verifiable by reference to the real world. In science consensus is irrelevant. What is relevant is reproducible results. The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus.
    There is no such thing as consensus science. If it’s consensus, it isn’t science. If it’s science, it isn’t consensus. Period.”
    –Michael Crichton, The Caltech Michelin Lecture, 17 January 2003

  30. Winter, Summer, Spring, and Fall. All that is for our own convenience. Mother Nature couldn’t care less about the Human calendar. If we had any sense we would not persist in trying to impose our time keeping on astronomical and planetary events.

  31. Thank you for a terrific resource. For one who loves to learn there is nothing better.
    Happy New Year to all.
    KD

  32. This is waaay off topic. It finally turned cold with snow here in Colo. Springs. My wife and I both have nasty colds — we’re both hacking and sneezing. I wonder if the medical community has ever conducted a study to determine whether a forced two-week trip to Hawaii would decrease the longevity of the common cold. Just wondering — with all the stimulus funds available, I think this is a very important study for which funds should be awarded by NSF. And we would volunteer to take part in the study .
    Happy New Year all — cough – cough.

  33. Thanks to all of you at WUWT for providing an island of sanity in a world where logic, facts, and common sense about Nature seem obsolete. No matter where the climate may wander in 2011 (and for once I’m less disappointed not to be in Queensland), I know I can come here for an objective view. Best wishes in the New Year.

  34. My heartfelt thanks to Anthony Watts and his band of noble moderators for all they have given us through 2010. This site has become something of an oasis for me.
    Best wishes for a Happy and Prosperous New Year for all my “extended family” here at WUWT.
    Dave

  35. Happy new year to Anthony, the moderators and everyone else at WUWT! Thank you for a fantastic 2010, I trust 2011 will be likewise!
    We are well past midnight over here, and so is the CAGW hypothesis…
    Happy New Year to all.

  36. When a green economist tries lecturing on climatology and peddling that the cold winter results from global warming in the Canadian Globe and Mail, the result brings laughs and a collector item:
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/opinion/and-now-the-weather-nasty-and-brutish/article1853702/
    Fortunately,
    Antonio San 4 detailed comments send this green peddler to school!
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/opinion/and-now-the-weather-nasty-and-brutish/article1853702/comments/

  37. R. de Haan says:
    December 31, 2010 at 4:30 pm
    “We’re all going to die
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/dinosaurs/8234135/Man-could-create-new-mass-extinction.html

    From the article:
    “She suggests that maintaining Earth’s ecosystems would be helped by focusing efforts and resources on the protection of a new species generation. ”
    Thankfully, the Japanese come to the rescue:
    http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iQZW1g61ojWXEOoV5zHV6pWQaMYQ?docId=CNG.fb7c634db68c10a8419a5de9e7e476e1.471

  38. I’ll contribute a couple of bucks to that study.
    Happy new year to Everyone interested in climate. And for 2011, fasten your seat belts, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.

  39. Happy New Year from NE Oregon 9F currently and we aren’t in the coldest spot in the
    area. Mecham up in the Blue Mtns, had -13F this AM Burns, near Seneca, -23…
    Reminds me of the 60’s….
    hmmm…

  40. I’m just wondering who is going to be first out of the traps with a 2010 hottest year on record news statement. On your marks get set….
    Just in time for the second bit of cold hard reality (ie Winter) to hit us all.
    And with that pondering, Happy New Year!

  41. A challenge to the Climate Conversation Group, Climate Science Coalition, Hot Topic, Open Parachute and NIWA.
    1) Plot a 15 year moving average of the 7SS NZTR composite actual temperatures 1909-2009
    http://www.niwa.co.nz/__data/assets/excel_doc/0011/99965/NZT7_Data_FINAL.xls
    Excel: Copy the 7SS composite actuals to A1
    Tools – Add Ins – Data Analysis – Moving average – A1:A100 to B1
    Insert Chart B15:B100
    What do you see?
    2) De-trend the 7SS actuals for the normal warming since 1850 that the latest science shows to be 0.5 C/100 yr that is accounted for by solar variation and climatological causes or use the IPCC figure of 0.45 C if living in the past is your preference.
    Excel:
    Create a column 1850 to 2009 (A1) [Start the series 1850 1851 1852 then extend using the bold + bottom right corner of the last entry]
    Create a column 0 to 159 (B1) [Use the bold + as before]
    Create a column (C1) =0.005*(B1)+13.6 [Use the bold + again to extend to row 160]
    Now copy in the 7SS composite actuals from row 59 to 159 (D60)
    Calculate the anomaly (E60) =(C60-D60)*-1 and extend to row 160
    Plot a 15 yr moving average using the technique in 1).
    What do you see?
    3) Perform a linear regression on the 15 year moving average de-trended anomaly data.
    Excel: Tools – Data Analysis – Regression
    For 1923 (E74) to 1953 (E104)
    What do you see?
    For 1953 (E104) to 1963 (E114)
    What do you see?
    For 1963 (E114) to 2009 (E160)
    What do you see?
    —————————————————————————————————————————-
    Note: the column:row addresses have not been checked on an actual spreadsheet so you’ll have to check for yourself. The jump is more likely 1952 to 1962 than 1953 to 1963 so something to check.
    BTW, the hand-holding is not for the benefit of WUWT.

  42. Richard North tells us that the Chairman of UK Met Office has been awarded CBE1. It’s “For public service.”
    It’s a public service to squander taxpayer funds and to put millions of lives at risk.
    How wrong does one have to be before one doesn’t get a civil service gong? How many people have to suffer from the consequences of ineptitude under a quasi-religious sect?
    The Australian Climate Madness blog has more.
    1.Commander of the Order of the British Empire

  43. Happy New Year everyone. Here’s to 2011 being the “Goldilocks” uneventful weather year. Not too hot nor too cold but juuuust right. Not to wet nor too dry but juuuuust right. Not too much Arctic ice nor too little, bur juuuust right. All metrics right at the average value!

  44. Richard C
    Are these the new revised 7 station figures — or the old ones — I could only find a graph when I was looking for numbers -but perhaps I didn’t look hard enough. (Actually it took ages to even find the graph on the NIWA site. They were hardly making it top billing.)

  45. Don’t forget to eat black eyed peas and other lucky legumes. Cabbages, hog jowls or ham tomorrow. Drink socially and responsible. Watch where you point your fireworks, guns.

  46. Fun on new years Eve…
    Go to Google ngram viewer
    Select time period from 1500 to 2000
    Set smoothing to 30 years
    Enter the phrase “hockey stick”
    Hit search
    Happy New Year!

  47. Happy new decade everyone.
    Room temperature super-conduction is waiting for academia to let go of shoddy reasoning, will the professors be able to protect their sacred cows for another decade??

  48. Now that 2010 is over in terms of data ingest/analysis, my unofficial calculations shows December 2010 near-surface temperature being about -0.0544 C below the 1979-2008 mean. That’s right, December 2010 is a below average month…

  49. Margaret
    Those are the old figures but because the BOM audit was not actually a reanalysis (BOM was not provided with the raw data) the revised figures are much the same, so plotting them would not make a difference to the big picture.
    The next trick is to extract the BOM’s full report from NIWA because they have not released it, they only included the cover letter. A spreadsheet with the revised figures similar to the one linked would be useful too. I’ll post a link if I stumble on it.

  50. Happy New Year! ~ctm and all. Best wishes for health and prosperity.
    My current weather in eastern Washington state is single digit bitter cold plus a major power outage for approximately 25% of my town. We are living the dream of the Al Gore and the global coolers.

  51. It is possible that C-Span and PBS will just use the new conserviative house and the hearings they plan as an excuse to shut down coverage of the hearings. They will do so I’m sure to save energy.
    ps
    Why pray tell do these CO2 on faith city goverments keep the flood lights on all their water towers/tanks/above ground storage? If they care all that about saving eletricity that needs to be shut down post haste. But, alas common sense .

  52. Congrats to WUWT for another excellent year.
    Next year lets vow to fight the utility companies that are more than eager to use EPA mandates to raise our utility bills because they are guaranteed a 10 % rate of return on whatever they build. I have heard that that the US administration is trying to bypass the state utility commissions which are supposed to represent the public’s interests.

  53. It’s less than and hour before the new Year here in NE Alabama. 2010 sure went out with a bang. ice, snow, and a warm spring like day at the end for the last day of the month. Pray we that 2011 will be just as eventful and beautiful. The variability makes for such beautiful seasons on this blue/green planet.
    Happy New Year to each and every one,
    Bill Derryberry

  54. Feeling anxiety rather than fear, TV adventurer Bruce Parry found himself caught in the Arctic ice.
    ‘As I looked around me, the water surrounding the boat was freezing solid in front of my eyes. I’ve never seen anything like that before – it was like a movie special effect.’
    It’s enough to take your breath away.

  55. Here’s a quote from The Good Society by Walter Lippmann than sums up the kind of people we are up against in the climate/environmental movement:
    In their modes of thinking, the intellectuals who expound what passes for “liberalism,” “Progressivism,” or “Radicalism” are almost all collectivists in their conception of the economy, authoritarian in their conception of the state, totalitarian in their conception of society.
    Happy new year everyone.

  56. To Anthony, and everyone in WUWT, a Happy New Year.
    Here’s a couple of quotes re climate & politics…
    “A grain of truth has been embedded in a sea of nonsense.” (Nigel Lawson)
    “Blue Planet in Green Shackles”. (Vaclav Klaus)
    Thank you all for helping me seeing the whole picture, even if I understand only some of it.
    From the Dutch sector of the North Sea,
    Chris

  57. Feliç any nou!
    Happy New Year!
    …to Anthony & family, mods, and all the regular readers and posters at WUWT.

  58. I have learned a lot these past few months reading this site – best site discovery of the year for me. Thank you one and all for my ongoing education – the posts are as informative as the articles.
    A happy and prosperous New Year to all 🙂

  59. Thanks to everyone who hasn’t wished me a Happy New Year! 🙂
    Lessee, what’s next? Ah yes, Perihelion Day!

    2011                        2011
    Perihelion  Jan   3 19    Equinoxes  Mar   20 23 21    Sept  23 09 05
    Aphelion    July  4 15    Solstices  June  21 17 16    Dec   22 05 30
    
  60. Almost midnight here in the desert southwest of the US and it is about 32 deg F. Cool, but well within the norm.
    Happy New Year to everyone! Stay skeptical and enjoy the nice weather – sometimes referred to as Global Warming!

  61. Happy New Year everyone! Anthony, thank you for the unbelievably hard work over the past year (like those before it, and even moreso) and for the fascinating reading it has provided.
    And to everyone out there–may your hens get very fat and may your sheep lay an abundance of eggs. Have a great 2011, one and all!
    Geoff Alder

  62. Happy New Year to all!
    Thanks to WUWT for all the invaluable information.
    Keep going, the winter 2010/11 is still good for great surprises,
    for example, the sea-ice-conditions in Northern Europe are quite advanced
    as per 30 December;
    __see Denmark, Skagerrak etc : here http://www.2007seatraining.de/Archiv/images/dec2b_2_10.jpg
    __entire Baltic Sea (PDF from FMI): http://www.2007seatraining.de/Archiv/pdf/dec2_4-10.pdf
    __Text here: http://www.2007seatraining.de/

  63. A great big New Years “thank you” to Hansen and the TEAM from Canada! Every nail you guys can pound into the coal “carbon” coffin is another barrel of tar sands oil we ship to the good old US of A. You’ve got the biggest coal reserves in the world, but instead you are importing the most expensive oil in the world, using money borrowed from China. Is it any wonder that Canada and China are booming, while the US is in recession? Special mention to Gore and partners for making it all possible. Just maybe all the CO2 will let us grow something more than ice 11 months of the year. Looking forward to seeing the IPCC model the law of unintended consequences.

  64. son of mulder [December 31, 2010 at 5:20 pm] says:
    “1.21 AM UK time and so far the coldest year since CD’s began.

    ATTENTION: *Brilliant* Idea Alert!!!
    @ son of mulder, h/t and thank you for a very original and useful idea! (with apologies to any others that did it sooner because I am so stealing this).
    We always hear the warmies use carefully chosen UN-SCIENTIFIC words to convey extra meaning (e.g., … since the instrumental record; … since the satellite record; … etc.), deception and propaganda is the only purpose of such phrasing since an exact date is available. Well we can all play this game as well, can’t we?
    It is simple to completely overwhelm their propaganda using pop-culture references that everyone understands immediately. For example: ‘You mean lowest summer ice extent since Jimmy Carter’ or ‘… since Khomeini seized control in Iran’ or ‘… since Super Bowl XIV’, or ‘… since Led Zeppelin’s last concert’, etc.
    But wait, there’s more! As a bonus we get to use the same tools that the enemy has corrupted right back against them, for example …
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979
    … which as you might expect supplies a practically infinite number of factoids to suit your taste. Yum. Feel free to change the year at the end of that URL to any other date required, for example 1880, just sayin’ 😉
    Shoving the enemy propaganda right back down their throats sounds like one heck of a good New Year’s Resolution to me. If you think I am exaggerating, just wait until this winter is over and they really begin laying it on thick in a last ditch effort to save themselves from the devastating snowball that mother nature threw in their faces.
    P.S. Happy New Year to (almost) all the WUWT contributors, to the article authors, to the stable of overworked moderators, and especially to Anthony and his family.

  65. One thing i learned from this and other sites:
    The quality of results given by a computer model are linearly inverse to the complexity of the data presented.

  66. Happy New year to all!! Thanks to Mr. Watts for his web site and all who help keep it humming.
    I hope to learn a great deal here in the coming year, special thanks to E.M. Smith for taking notice of a newbie.
    Meanwhile, spending the holidays with the in-laws in Marion, MT and it’s currently -0.2F. Looks like McGregor Lake will freeze over 3-4 weeks early this year. Must be Global Warming, obviously.

  67. I have learned so much in the past couple of years.
    Thank you Anthony; thank you contributors and posters.
    A happy New Year to everyone. 2011 is going to be VERY interesting.
    Kia ora, kia kaha.
    Be well and be strong.

  68. Discussion and opinion from WUWT commenters on this “Call for papers” on “Climate Determinism: Then and Now” should be fruitful and worthwhile. The alert to it was posted in Tips & Notes by vigilantfish on December 29, 2010 at 10:12 am.
    It fits well on an “Open Thread” and I hope some of you will run with it. There is much to ponder and learn here. A short extract from vigilantfish follows; but it is well worth slipping back to Tips to read his whole posting before commenting:
    Climatic determinism has a very long and checkered history. It has provided an enduring framework for thinking about the relationship between the human and natural environments by making the climate a demiurge of social universe. In doing so, climatic determinists have put forward a particular species of political ethics whose self-serving claims about the environmental distribution of virtue, value and privilege have long been subject of debate and criticism. Most problematically, the idea of climate as a key force in social development has naturalized existing forms of cultural domination, political hierarchy, economic dependency and racial inequity. While most of such thinking has been discredited, in recent years, the omnipresence of anthropogenic climate change has caused a resurgence of similar ideas, causing scholars and commentators to ask if these represent a revival of climatic determinism and, if so, with what consequences?

  69. Here in rural France we seem to be in a gap between the global warmings with the temperature above 0C — for the moment. Forecast for the next week has us down to -7 again and my ex-neighbours in sunny Scotland tell me they’re expecting something similar.
    Meanwhile a Happy New Year to everyone at WUWT and all my fellow-contributors and readers. You continue to educate me and one of these days I might understand more than half of it!!

  70. From the Antipodes I would like to thank Mr. Watts and all the moderators, contributors and posters for making this site such an enjoyable and delightful adventure.
    To all, best wishes for a prosperous and enjoyable new year.

  71. List of New year’s wishes:
    1. Prince Charles’ lobotomy goes well, so he can perhaps at last start thinking clearly about climate matters.
    2. IPCC does the decent thing and announces it will disband because it no longer serves any purpose.
    3. Climate fraud becomes a criminal offence and is no longer rewarded by large salaries, bonuses and grants.
    4. Al Gore becomes socially responsible and starts paying taxes and keeping his mouth shut.
    5. Polar bears develop a taste for environmentalists supposedly trying to ‘save’ them.
    6. The Team issues a paper denouncing ‘Mannian Maths’.
    7. Politicians worldwide have an epiphany realising that raising taxes to fund government waste and welfare dependency schemes is no longer acceptable.
    Ah well, if just one of the above came about, it would make my 2011.

  72. AGW Progress Report: Coal is King.
    “The wind turbines may even use up electricity during a calm period, as they were rotated in order to keep the mechanical parts working. ”
    …-
    “Wind Power”
    “Wind farms becalmed just when needed the most”
    “Wind farms in Britain generated practically no electricity during the recent cold spell, raising fresh concerns about whether they could be relied upon to meet the country’s energy needs.”
    “Despite high demand for electricity as people shivered at home over Christmas, most of the 3,000 wind turbines around Britain stood still due to a lack of wind.
    Even yesterday , when conditions were slightly breezier, wind farms generated just 1.8 per cent of the nation’s electricity — less than a third of usual levels.
    The failure of wind farms to function at full tilt during December forced energy suppliers to rely on coal-fired power stations to keep the lights on — meaning more greenhouse gases were produced.
    Experts feared that as the Government moved towards a target of generating 30 per cent of electricity from wind — while closing gas and coal-fired power stations — cold, still winters could cause a problem in the future. ”
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/windpower/8234616/Wind-farms-becalmed-just-when-needed-the-most.html

  73. Happy new year to Anthony, his family & the mods.
    Keep up the good work, good sense & good science will eventually prevail.
    Cheers
    Norman

  74. “*Keep calm until we know how wind blows”
    AGW PR Rebuttal:
    Youse dirty denialist rats. We’re going to get youse.
    “we risk emboldening the sceptics”.
    >>> “To this I would add the fact that the story of climate change is a story that hasn’t happened yet.”
    “For 22 years, climate change has been sold as an impending apocalypse. This tactic has not worked; indeed there are signs that it has backfired.”
    “There is tremendous uncertainty, but we think it will be bad and that it would be a good idea to do something. And then sell climate change like you sell house insurance.”
    …-
    “*Keep calm until we know how wind blows
    * Michael Hanlon
    * From: Sunday Herald Sun
    * January 01, 2011 4:02PM”
    “THIS is a good time for sceptics, former sceptics, waverers and true believers to take stock on where they stand on climate change.
    The harsh weather that has been battering Europe and the US, not to mention Queensland, has, of course, emboldened sceptical voices.
    “It’s just weather, not climate!” shout the believers, perhaps a little nervously – well aware that they are all too often very willing to confuse weather and climate when it suits them.”
    “Michael Hanlon is the science editor of Britain’s Daily Mail”
    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/ipad-application/keep-calm-until-we-know-how-wind-blows/story-fn6bn88w-1225980023565
    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/mt/mt-comments.cgi

  75. Michael Hanlon (above) said: “it would be a good idea to do something.”
    Here’s “the real solution”: the “Final Solution*”.
    “”Some years down the pike, we’re going to get the real solution, which is going to be a combination of death panels and sales taxes.” This gives a chilling new meaning to death and taxes. Suddenly the inharmonious left fell silent.”
    “WOLF: Lies, damn lies and death panels”
    “Dr. Milton R. Wolf is a radiologist in Kansas and President Obama’s second cousin once removed. He blogs at miltonwolf.com.”
    http://www.jacksnewswatch.com/
    *”Endlosung”:
    http://www.historyplace.com/worldwar2/holocaust/h-wannsee.htm

  76. Ric Werme says: December 31, 2010 at 10:28 pm
    Thanks to everyone who hasn’t wished me a Happy New Year! 🙂
    Lessee, what’s next? Ah yes, Perihelion Day!
    2011 2011
    Perihelion Jan 3 19 Equinoxes Mar 20 23 21 Sept 23 09 05
    Aphelion July 4 15 Solstices June 21 17 16 Dec 22 05 30

    Ric, you forgot to point out that CO2 has made the summer three days longer already, one in the spring, plus two in the fall! /sarc
    A happy, healthy & prosperous New year to all!

  77. Ring in the New Year by Committing to Read Something which You May Not Already Agree With.
    If anybody had any doubts at this point that the problem of the Information Age is in parsing and validating the information, then those people apparently lack Internet connections.
    Everywhere you go online, the community is divided on issues. But, the dominant philosophy which tends to guide *both* sides is to criticize the other, and ignore their responses.
    Rarely, in this current Information age, do people go out of their way to read what their critics are saying. But, for those who do, and come to develop an understanding of both sides of a debate, they learn that the extra effort to spend time within the company of those who they normally find distasteful is well worth the hassle.
    Right now, you are probably imagining that *you* are not one of *those* guys. You’re imagining that you are different. You are open-minded to good ideas. You listen to your critics. You know both sides of the issues.
    But, I would propose that this problem is not a problem of the Internet or the Information Age. This is a problem of humans. We desire certainty. And we want to believe that man has conquered his surroundings. It is not just romantic; it makes us feel secure and safe.
    Being people, the people of WUWT are just as susceptible to these socio-psychological forces as anybody else. The people here are not some special breed. This is merely a collection of people who, for whatever reason, started listening to both sides of the conversation, on the specific issue of climate change.
    But, is this enough? Have you guys gone far enough? Ultimately, somebody somewhere is going to have to create another climate model which actually works. How many of you guys have taken the next step, and started to wonder what this climate model would actually look like?
    What would you change? What errors within the underlying physics would you propose that the models eliminate?
    I’ve spent around five years of my time studying the subject of plasmas and plasma cosmology. I’ve heard both sides out, and to the best of my abilities, even run the arguments by both sides. I’ve read countless books by the EU Theorists and I’ve read published papers on the subject in IEEE. I’ve held countless conversations with the theorists, usually to clarify some confusion here or there.
    In the process, I’ve learned the meaning of philosophy of science without ever even picking up a book on the subject. As a journalist, I’ve come to understand how scientists speak, and how to incorporate doubt into my language, where appropriate. I’ve learned how important it is to not confuse inferences with observations, as well as the inherent danger of the inferential step.
    To many of you here, my views are pseudo-scientific. You guys should realize that I’m very used to that response. It is typical. It’s fine as a starting point, but only that. My expectations, over time, is that logical people do indeed listen to evidence and arguments worth hearing out.
    In my experience, the large majority of the electric universe skeptics remain skeptical for the sole reason that they are not reading both sides. Nobody will ever convince you of a cosmology on a forum. But, somebody can convince you to read about another cosmology, and to cultivate sufficient interest to keep an open mind on the subject when you see others discussing it. When I discuss EU theory online, I never imagine that I’m going to sway somebody. I am merely trying to convince people that there are these other ideas which warrant their attention.
    Okay, so here’s what’s going to happen:
    Where Silicon Valley startups were once dominated by titans like IBM, Microsoft and Apple, today it’s ventures like Zynga and Facebook. We are going through a social networking phase, which has not yet fully run its course. Facebook will eventually peak and be chipped away by lots of smaller, more focused clones. Why? Because social networking is a powerful mechanism for formulating web content with minimal effort by the developers. A developer need only create the content management system — the framework itself — and the users will create the content if the idea is good enough to draw people.
    At some point, the electric universe crowd (as well as, perhaps, other against-the-mainstream movements) is going to wake up to this. And, if they are right, somebody is going to create a social networking site dedicated to the creation of these models.
    There is a big picture here. One of these fringe movements — whether it be EU or not — is going to set the precedent by coming together online and collaborating on models which are superior in their predictive capabilities to the conventional models. And from that instant forward, everything that we’ve come to imagine about how science is done in this world will be over.
    It will be at this instant in time when the people of the world will realize that science for mankind can be created by the public, and can even be *funded* by the public. Investors will flock to this social networking site, and flood it with money for validating its predictions with additional observations and experimentation.
    Whether or not the people of WUWT realize that this is the future of science, it’s going to eventually happen. If it does not happen in our generation, our children or grandchildren will do it.
    It is inevitable.
    Get over it right now.
    Big Science will eventually become Old Science.
    And there will eventually be a solar model which electric universe advocates can point to. And, based upon my five years reading about it, I strongly suspect that — given the power to observe the interstellar filaments which radio astronomers already follow, but in a more systematic manner — this new electric sun model will make accurate predictions. And these predictions will be sold to the US government in order to predict energetic solar events.
    And all of this will really just be the beginning, because after that, these same people will move on to creating additional electric universe models. A climate model would be a natural second goal.
    The third model would likely be a quantum model, with a special focus on how to properly model gravity on the quantum level.
    So, at the end of the day, advocates of against-the-mainstream ideas who speak to frequently disinterested forums will win the day. They need not worry that their idea will not eventually be given its day. In the end, all good ideas will be tried. And those which work will make money. And those who refused to read about the good ideas will ultimately watch others make that money.
    I’m sure it’s a story which has repeated itself in the history of men many times.

  78. Everybody panic, No really I mean it!, The planet has warmed so much that it actually snowed at my house here in Northern California. I am going to have to personally insist that everyone not do anything which may generate additional greenhouse gases like CO2 and especially CH4.

  79. Happy New Year to all WUWT contributors and readers, but especially Anthony the Moderators! Surfing around today I came to the happy realization that for virtually any posting on CAGW, where comments are free and open, the skeptics far outnumber the warmists.
    WUWT and the Chiefio and Climate Audit have changed the world. I wonder if there is any university in the world that would have the guts to give Anthony – or Steve McIntyre, of E.M. Smith – the honourary doctorates they so richly deserve for their attempts to keep science honest?

  80. …….that for virtually any posting on CAGW, where comments are free and open, the skeptics far outnumber the warmists……..
    Thats because we are all in receipt of hidden $billions donated by Big Coal and Oil. I’m expecting my annual bonus imminently.

  81. So the UK’s Met Office wants a new super-duper computer. I suggest we take their grown up toys away and let them play on an abacus.

  82. Well the sun is maximum South in its annual trek due to the tilt of the earth, the moon is today at its maximum South declination for this 27.32 day period, and there are reports of killer tornadoes in the South East USA.
    I could have told you so but nobody listens to the unwashed masses. It is a cyclic pattern thing, not a CO2 thing, due to solar wind shifts and lunar declinational tides in the atmosphere. Ignoring the biggest drivers of the weather and climate will always result in surprising happenings to standard observers.
    Have a Happy New Year! Here’s to progress being made toward the truth.
    Blogs are actively pursuing truth in all directions, you just need to digest enough of the bulk to separate out the BS from the gold hidden within.

  83. I reckon Perce Corbyn gets the QOTW award:
    This winter is the Stalingrad in the ‘Climate War’

  84. Chris Reeve says: (January 1, 2011 at 8:15 am) Ring in the New Year by Committing to Read Something which You May Not Already Agree With.
    I am not sure if I can agree with you, Chris; but your prose sings and inspires me to think and consider — and that is enough, in itself, to cause me to say thanks for writing.

  85. Chris Reeve said:

    Where Silicon Valley startups were once dominated by titans like IBM, Microsoft and Apple, today it’s ventures like Zynga and Facebook.

    Of the three you mentioned, Apple is the only Silicon Valley startup and IBM has been around for something like 100 years.
    What was wrong with Cisco, Intel, Google, Veritas, …

  86. Just sobered up.
    Thanks for the ride WUWT!
    Just in case nobody has done it yet………………….
    Happy Warmest Ever New Year !!!

  87. Roger L.;
    But … we liked you better hammered!
    😉
    Happy New Year, or, as the Chinese will say next month (3rd): Gung Ho Fat Choi!

  88. David Thomasq says:
    “Is this article about global warming without even mentioning it?”
    Is it about the Scientific Method without even mentioning Karl Popper?
    The writer mentions the squishy-touchy-feely Kuhn instead. Typical New Yorker drivel.
    Besides, as usual they get it backwards. The climate null hypothesis, against which the alternate CO2=CAGW hypothes must be measured, has withstood all attempts at falsification. Thus, CAGW is bunkum.

  89. Smokey;
    Actually, it does mention Popper: “While Karl Popper imagined falsification occurring with a single, definitive experiment—Galileo refuted Aristotelian mechanics in an afternoon—the process turns out to be much messier than that. Many scientific theories continue to be considered true even after failing numerous experimental tests.”
    It looks like the only ultimately valid Scientific Law is ‘Regression to the Mean’, and the Means are a lot less clearcut than we thought.

  90. To Brian H and Smokey — I like Jonah Lehrer’s last three sentences, sobering though they be:

    “Just because an idea is true
    doesn’t mean it can be proved. And just because an idea can be proved doesn’t mean it’s true. When the experiments are done, we still have to choose what to believe.”

  91. Hello. I know that I’m very late on this thread, but there was something that I wanted to get off my chest.
    On November 26th 2010 the BBC released the following:
    Met Office says 2010 ‘among hottest on record’
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-11841368
    Here’s how the article begins:

    “This year is heading to be the hottest or second hottest on record, according to the Met Office.
    It says global temeratures [sic] for the past 12 months are the warmest recorded by Nasa, and second in the UK data set, HadCRUT3.
    The Met Office says it is very confident that man-made global warming is forcing up temperatures.”

    The question is, why was this article published? Why was this news? If a similar article had been published in January then I could understand how it might be considered to be a news story. Once all the data is in for the year then it would seem reasonable to write a story on how the year’s temperatures compared to previous years.
    But to publish an article in November about the possibility that 2010 would be one of the hottest on record is odd, to say the least.
    So why was it published? The answer is depressingly obvious. The article was published three days before the start of the Cancun United Nations Climate Change Conference.
    I’m slightly puzzled as to why this has not met with greater uproar. We have here a crystal clear example of the BBC and the Met Office trying to influence politicians. The publicly funded BBC, and the publicly funded Met Office are seen here clearly trying to push forward a political agenda.
    As a tax payer, and a TV licence fee payer, I’d like to know how this is legal.

  92. The Google Andriod 2.1 Zenithink andriod tablet PC on Sourcing Gate
    I Figured I should start a Thread for this tablet since it didn’t have one just for the Zenithink zenithink
    I searched the forum and it was mentioned in 5 threads but nothing just for the tablet itself.
    Zenithink be a Shanzhai laptop company with a focus on the Anyka AK88 chipset. From2009, then started selling Windows CE microtablets for 3xx Yuan, and reaped good profits. Since they wanted to enter the higher-end MID (mobile internet device) product sector, but did not have chipset manufacturing capabilities, they resorted to Remark chips, purchasing Shanghai Tsinghuaic IX2X0 series CPUs, and proceeded to stamp their own logos on the CPUs to be shipped. However, these chips, did not contain A8 Cortex, but ARM11 with a coreclock of 800MHz and supporting 1080p hardware decoding. Right now the chipset only supports MP4 1080p hardware decoding, and does not actually support any other formats! Since ARM Cortex A8 processors process data at an efficiency of double of ARM11, this is clearly an act of trickery and deception in advertising.
    The Tsinghuaic IX2X0 chipset is a legitimate chipset being developed by Tsinghuaic. They are selling at 650-700 Yuan from factory batches per 1000 units. Zenithink remarked the CPUs and started selling the same spec’ed devices for 850-900 Yuan with their false A8 Cortex advertising. In doing so, they are making large sums of money by deceiving end customers.
    The chipset is okay, but anything from Zenithink or labeled Zenithink is a dud. Orphan is a simple rebranding company and doesn’t really make anything. Tsinghuaic isn’t even really done testing their chipset, so whatever is on the market right now contains a chipset that is still in beta development, combined with hardware from a hoax of a company. .If you wannt to know more you can kink the sourcinggate

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