From the GWPF, here’s a collection of articles that are collectively ripping the Met Office a “new one”. And, it is easy to see why. Here’s the Met Office supercomputer enhanced model output forecast from October 2010:
The map and this below are from Autonomous Mind: The piece even goes on to name the Met Office employee who spoke about the map and talked up the effort that had gone into producing the start point for a ‘seasonal forecast‘:
Helen Chivers, Met Office forecaster, insisted the temperature map takes into account the influence of climate factors such as El Nino and La Nina – five-yearly climatic patterns that affect the weather – but admits this is only a “start point” for a seasonal forecast. She said: “The map shows probabilities of temperatures in months ahead compared to average temperatures over a 30-year period.
Click the links in stories below for more at each website.
Let’s hope Santa isn’t relying on weather forecasts from the U.K. Met Office. The British deep freeze of recent weeks (which has also immobilized much of continental Europe) is profoundly embarrassing for the official forecaster. Just two months ago it projected a milder than usual winter. This debacle is more than merely embarrassing. The Met Office is front and centre in rationalizing the British government’s commitment to fight catastrophic man-made global warming with more and bigger bureaucracy, so its conspicuous errors raise yet more questions about that “settled” science. –-Peter Foster, Financial Post, 22 December 2010
Dave Britton, the Met Office’s Chief Press Officer, e-mailed the following statement to the Global Warming Policy Foundation:
Following the entry on your blog regarding the Met Office please find the Met Office response below:
The Met Office has not issued a seasonal forecast to the public and categorically denies forecasting a ‘mild winter’ as suggested by Boris Johnson <http://www.london.gov.uk/mayor/> in his column in the Daily Telegraph.
Following public research, the Met Office no longer issues long-range forecasts for the general public; instead we provide a monthly outlook on our website, which have consistent and clearly sign-posted the very cold conditions.
Our day-to-day forecasts have been widely recognised as providing excellent advice to government, businesses and the public with the Daily Telegraph commenting only today that ‘the weekends heavy snow was forecast with something approaching pin-point accuracy by the Met Office’.
The public trust and take heed of our warnings and it is misleading to imply that the Met Office did not see this cold weather coming.
Dave Britton Chief Press Officer, Met Office – FitzRoy Road Exeter EX1 3PB United Kingdom, E-mail: dave.britton@metoffice.gov.uk – http://www.metoffice.gov.uk
GWPF Note: The Met Office’s track record of forecasting mild winters can be found here: Warm Bias: How The Met Office Mislead The British Public
The Met Office denial of a forecast is fatuous and their temperature map demonstrates clearly their computer models, featuring the global warming bias that undermines the Met Office’s predictions, are as much use as a chocolate fireguard. –Autonomous Mind, 20 December 2010
The economic impact of the freezing winter will deepen this week as Britain prepares for more travel gridlock, and millions of workers, travellers and shoppers were expected to stay at home in the run-up to Christmas rather than brave the icy conditions. Estimates from the insurer Royal Sun Alliance (RSA) have put the cost of the weather to the economy at £1bn per day, a sum that is thought to be hitting retailers, restaurants and bars the hardest. The total cost is expected to be around £13bn. –Jonathan Brown, The Independent, 20 December 2010
The row over the need for a multimillion-pound investment in snowploughs, de-icing equipment and salt stocks deepened this morning with the publication of a government-backed report using Met Office predictions that successive hard winters are rare. But the findings of the government-commissioned study were contradicted by Sir David King, the government’s chief scientific adviser from 2000 to 2007, who warned that ministers should plan for more cold winters. Quarmby said the Met Office remained convinced that the severe cold snap is a one-off phenomenon. –Dan Milmo, The Guardian, 21 December 2010
This is the third winter running when we have had very cold and snowy conditions hitting the UK. It comes at a time of continued, unusually weak, solar activity. Perhaps we all need to get used to colder winters across the UK in the next few years.—Paul Hudson, BBC Weather, 20 December 2010
It turns out that Dr. Viner of the East Anglia Climate Research Unit was flat-out wrong when he told the Independent in early 2000 that within a few years snow would be rare. In fact, snow has been abundant during every year but one since then. — Donna Laframboise, No Frakking Consensus, 7 January 2010
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Jknapp, good catch. I hadn’t read between the lines till you brought it up. I am guessing Met Office long range stuff are still being issued to policy wonks. And filled with globalony.
At Bishop Hill’s blog, commenter “hmc” notes that the Met Office upgraded their seasonal forecasting system. The October forecast of warm weather, depicted in the main post, was apparently made with the former system, while a November forecast, which anticipates much colder weather, used the new system.
One can view these forecasts at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/specialist/seasonal/probability/glob_seas_prob.html
Sarf of the River, traditionally the weather presenters on the BBC have always been Met. Office employees, not BBC employees. I assume it’s still the same as I’ve never heard anything different.
harrywr2 says:
December 22, 2010 at 11:28 am
TreeHugger says:
December 22, 2010 at 9:32 am
“even the physics, worked out in the 19th century, that shows that carbon dioxide traps heat”
A CO2 molecule absorbs heat then re-emits the heat in equal directions.
Please explain in detail how the heat remains ‘trapped’?
—————
Oh thank you Harry – most concise rejoinder to the “CO2, it’s like a blanket” I’ve every heard. I heard that ‘blanket’ crap from a teacher neighbour a year or two ago Now I guess she’s saying “It’s like somebody left the fridge door open”.
Honestly. Minds like jelly. How did it come to this?
HaroldW, I don’t doubt they have a new one. Business 101. When the product takes a hit, repackage it and call it new. Or better yet, copy someone else’s better product and market it under your own label as if the idea was yours.
HaroldW stated:
“At Bishop Hill’s blog, commenter “hmc” notes that the Met Office upgraded their seasonal forecasting system. The October forecast of warm weather, depicted in the main post, was apparently made with the former system, while a November forecast, which anticipates much colder weather, used the new system.”
“One can view these forecasts at”
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/specialist/seasonal/probability/glob_seas_prob.html
There is just one problem with the new system. At the link given by HaroldW it says that the new forecast was issued in December. The precise date is not given but the cold spell started towards the end of November.
Does the Met Office’s new system involve looking out of the window?
HaroldW says:
December 22, 2010 at 1:00 pm
At Bishop Hill’s blog, commenter “hmc” notes that the Met Office upgraded their seasonal forecasting system. The October forecast of warm weather, depicted in the main post, was apparently made with the former system, while a November forecast, which anticipates much colder weather, used the new system.
If you read the Met’s post, the best that can be said for them is that their November forecast “non-predicts” that December temperatures have a 40-60% likelihood of being colder than usual. That is not a warning but a coin toss. Bizarrely, their December post says the same thing. I guess they haven’t looked out the window.
Rhoda R says:
December 22, 2010 at 11:04 am
If the Met is using a forecast model based on a linear trend, there is no way that they will be able to predict cyclic events.
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Exactly. The errors are built-in.
Louis says:
December 22, 2010 at 12:02 pm
It’s got to be depressing for the Met Office to realize that they could up their average forcast accuracy by replacing climate models and super computers with a monkey throwing darts. Not only would it save money, but their forecast would at least be in the ball-park half the time.
Yes, but they would need the computer in order to remember to feed the monkey.
DaveF says:
December 22, 2010 at 12:15 pm
Bewick swans arrived in England nearly three weeks early this year. Many more geese than normal were seen heading for France. Maybe they didn’t get the Met Office’s projection.
The grue have been passing overhead for 2 months now. The sign of a cold further north.
England needs to swap the MET Office’s mega-terabyte computer for a few snowploughs. Otherwise, it’s been a complete waste of money….
England is looking increasingly parochial. What a shame.
The UK and Europe are not the only thing in the deep freeze.
The GCM’s that they rely upon to forecast are likewise a block of ice.
The Supercomputers do generate a lot of hot air, though.
Louis says:
December 22, 2010 at 12:02 pm
It’s got to be depressing for the Met Office to realize that they could up their average forcast accuracy by replacing climate models and super computers with a monkey throwing darts. Not only would it save money, but their forecast would at least be in the ball-park half the time.
———————-
Gonnae no dae that? Ma screen’s pure covered in atmomised Baileys.
Pamela Gray – quoted me thus: “It’s perfectly possible that the Met Office did predict a colder than 2000 – 2009 winter, which is shown in the above maps as a warmer than 1970-2000 winter.”
And replied: “That is some of the best spin I have seen to date. If there were a Golden Globe/Pulitzer Prize for media spin, I nominate your comment in its entirety.”
Let me put some hypothetical numbers to it so that you can understand the maths behind it.
1. The average 2000-2009 could be 0.8C warmer than the average 1970-2000.
2. The current December temperature anomaly is about -5C
3. The forecast might have had the sign of this anomaly correct, but the magnitude wrong, perhaps in general it gives magnitudes 10 times less [because the signal is hidden by noise].
4. Therefore the forecast anomaly is about -0.5C, relative to the new normal of the 2000-2009 average. Consequently the anomaly relative to 1970-2000 is +0.3, and of the wrong sign.
In fact, if you look at the October forecast using the link –
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/specialist/seasonal/probability/glob_seas_prob.html
– and look at the pressure signal, you can see that the Met Office predicted a 60-80% chance of above average pressure. Above average pressure gives the blocked, cold conditions that we are experiencing now. If you look at the 500hPa height this is even more obvious, in that an easterly [cold] anomaly is forecast.
No sensible forecaster would look at the raw model output of 2m temperature compared to the 1970-2000 mean to make their forecast. They would look at all of the model fields, and the blocked signal in the forecast would be obvious, which is hidden by the global warming trend and the small size of the model anomalies.
You can’t judge a seasonal forecast on one event, but it looks pretty good overall. It’s also worth remembering that the first Met Office seasonal forecast was actually for a cold winter in 2005/6 – see for example this that I found on google:
http://www.ecmwf.int/newsevents/meetings/forecast_products_user/Presentations2006/Graham.pdf
[Also note how the forecast temperatures show different anomalies when compared to different baseline climatologies on slide 21 – from what I can tell the baseline period they are using is 1989-2002 in the forecast shown at the top of the page]
i’m sorry but the map I see is a probability map. If I tell you that there is a 90% chance of rain tommorrow and it doesnt rain, my “forecast” isnt “wrong”. You’ve just witnessed a 10% event. If I do this repeatly and am wrong repeatedly that a good sign that something is amiss with the model OR the real time data that is assimilated into the model.
Following public research, the Met Office no longer issues long-range forecasts for the general public;
Market research indicated that consumers were less than happy with our product. Given that we get paid either way it was just easier to discontinue the public product. Now that our forecasts are only seen by ministers and civil servants life is now a breeze.
The DMI site is showing Artic daily average tmp at 16°C above the norm. It has been climbing relentlously for several days. I think that indicates a severe spell of weather over Europe in the near term.
HaroldW:
I responded to hmc (and, implicitly, to you also) on the page that you cite:
Alistair, wasn’t impugning your maths. I understood your post quite well. Good spin is always true.
If you forecast for a warmer winter and you get unusually (for the last 20-30 yrs anyway) colder weather, doesn’t that also fit right in with their new “climate disruption” model? Everything fits the disruption model, therefore it is global warming. We cannot possibly predict that which is disrupted.
This news story made me laugh – from the soutwest where my family are from:
Cardiff General Hospital was isolated by thick snow and ice, during the last week. The hospital publically appealed to four-wheel-drive SUV owners to help hospital staff get to work. Up to now officially SUV owners were supposed to be CO2-belching public enemies. Interesting times…
Alistair Ahs says:
December 22, 2010 at 1:48 pm
You are confusing “what he said” with, charitably, “what was implied by what he said” or, more likely, “an explanation of how what he said should be interpreted.” But I am an American. I expect people to be plain and direct.
Sir David King was the BBC radio 4 this afternoon going on about how we had a very warm summer and it was normal for it to be cold winter after it????
perhaps he was on holiday in sunnier climes as i can’t remember it as a very warm summer!
“People here clearly don’t understand probability.”
What is the probability of a reliable temperature set from 100 years ago that we can get a 0.1Cº resolution from all over world and to less than 100km radius per station?
Hats off to the GWPF for this research. I read somewhere that a former WWF leader-activist is now the head of the UK Met Office? WWF agenda are notoriously alarmist and political.