Breaking news! December can still be cold and snowy over parts of the Northern Hemisphere. Don’t look to the American media for much information about European weather; it’s about as foreign as driving on the wrong side of the road. But, in Britain, Italy, and the rest of Europe, the past several weeks have seen “the Arctic refrigerator door” swing wide-open. Here are some example headlines:
Arctic freeze to last another month as AA warns of ‘worst driving conditions imaginable’ for Christmas getaways: Mail Online: “With temperatures expected to fall to -15c (5f), the Met Office said this is ‘almost certain’ to become the coldest December since records began in 1910.”
Europe travel mayhem as arctic freeze strikes again: AFP: “In Italy, rare snowfall disrupted the tourist destinations of Pisa and Florence, forced both airports to close and severely disrupted traffic and the region’s rail network.”
Thankfully, Dr. James Hansen has this figured out: Europe is one-half Rossby wavelength downstream from a partially frozen Hudson Bay, which causes Europe to become colder, or something: from NASA’s government funded blog:
Back to the cold air in Europe: is it possible that reduced Arctic sea ice is affecting weather patterns? Because Hudson Bay (and Baffin Bay, west of Greenland) are at significantly lower latitudes than most of the Arctic Ocean, global warming may cause them to remain ice free into early winter after the Arctic Ocean has become frozen insulating the atmosphere from the ocean. The fixed location of the Hudson-Baffin heat source could plausibly affect weather patterns, in a deterministic way — Europe being half a Rossby wavelength downstream, thus producing a cold European anomaly in the trans-Atlantic seesaw. Several ideas about possible effects of the loss of Arctic sea ice on weather patterns are discussed in papers referenced by Overland, Wang and Walsh.
However, we note in our Reviews of Geophysics paper that the few years just prior to 2009-2010, with low Arctic sea ice, did not produce cold winters in Europe. The cold winter of 2009-2010 was associated with the most extreme Arctic Oscillation in the period of record. Figure 3, from our paper, shows that 7 of the last 10 European winters were warmer than the 1951-1980 average winter, and 10 of the past 10 summers were warmer than climatology. The average warming of European winters is at least as large as the average warming of summers, but it is less noticeable because of the much greater variability in winter.
This is the trap that statistical/data manipulators like Hansen have fallen into: in the past, they would freely say: “of course you cannot attribute one weather event to global warming, but the likelihood of that event has become higher because it’s the extremes that are going to increase the most”, or something like that. Now, there is no pretense to equivocate about what the atmosphere is doing: weather has become climate, and necessarily so for the continued narrative of global warming alarmism. The trap is that they do not understand the underlying meteorology or climatology from basic dynamics — instead giving hand-wavy explanations with some citations thrown in from their colleagues.
To adequately attribute an ongoing weather/short-term climate event to AGW, considerable data analysis and time must be invested into researching many different avenues. It is a disservice to those interested in climate variability for senior scientists to supply hand-wavy, reflexive out-of-their-behinds explanations to the media to further their obvious political agenda. This actually goes for both sides of the climate aisle.
In the meantime, Europe continues to enjoy the effects of global warming or the Arctic Oscillation or the North Atlantic Oscillation, or something. It’s hubris and arrogance to think you have the Winter of 2010-2011 all summed up before it even starts.
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Pamela Gray says:
Real right handed gunslingers either kept a derringer up high on the left chest in a cross draw position, or put the left hip revolver in a cross draw position.
Yes but… It works really well for us ambidexters! ( Sadly, I sold my Ruger Single Action .357. If I was doing it again, I’d add a second one, both in handles back position. Never have found another as accurate and smooth.)
sHx says:
My boyfriend got me a very cool 38 revolver with gun belt, I think for Christmas.”
Oh, dude! America is an entirely different planet.
Most folks have no idea … 9-)
Nothin’ like buying a gun for your sweety to make a relationship “click”… And folks in The U.S.A. will cling to their traditions for a long long time..
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/12/18/willie/
2nd video down has a “4th of July with Willie Nelson” that has, um, er, some , ah, “loose” rednecks having a “Wiskey River” party in the audience. Sort of a ‘Woodstock with cowboy hats’ event. Some with a shortage of clothing, so don’t watch it if you are easily upset.
That is the real America. The “heartland”. Not the stuff you see on the nightly news. And it’s just a might more self reliant and “uppity” than some other places. IIRC, there’s a few more than 1 gun per person in the country. Especially in Texas. (Willie hangs out in Texas a lot. As does the wife’s side of the family. I like Texas… )
If those folks ever decide to just tell D.C. to go “stuff it”, well, nobody is going to argue with them about it. Well, not for long anyway…
I really do wonder at how so many European folks can be so much like farm animals. As long as they are fed and feel safe, they’re happy. Don’t really understand it, myself. In the country you know you are supposed to ride the horse, not be ridden… and you know that the “prime steer”, being fed rolled oats in the barn, is not a desired career path… as it ends badly. How folks in the UK can be this cold, with that much tax nonsense, and just put up with it. It’s beyond me.
It will be very intersting watching how this sorts itself out in the UK and the EU. There are going to be significant political stresses from the impacts of a decade of increasing cold.
Richard Holle says:
December 17, 2010 at 10:28 pm
“Just an update;
Below are some of my latest thoughts on what is driving the weather and climate…”
Simply brilliant Richard and gets to the crux of the matter of climate oscillation. I’ve printed it as a word document for further study.
Now we just need a better understanding of the physics involved and a dollop of deterministic chaos to help us understand why the patterns of weather regime never quite exactly repeat and it’s job done!
“E.M.Smith says:
December 19, 2010 at 12:57 am”
Oh Mr. Smith, it’s not only the UK and EU, like “Monkey see. Monkey do”, Australia and New Zealand follow the “lead” UK/EU sets.
In the UK, Aus and NZ, “we” gave our “right” to defend ourselves from the state many many years ago.
Every day Aussies wake up and wonder why their “rears” feel more and more sore. That’s because our “leaders” (That is the MSM) are preparing us for major tax hikes!
Pamela Gray says:
December 18, 2010 at 7:09 am
I would love to see your reaction if he had a working Howitzer on the front lawn!
Ref – David Jones says:
December 18, 2010 at 9:51 am
Pascvaks says:
December 18, 2010 at 5:34 am
“100 KPH? That’s only 62 Mph! What’s so earth-moving about that? Can’t call that an “experience.” Don’t be such a wuss!”
Ref – Z says:
December 18, 2010 at 3:27 pm
David Jones says:
December 18, 2010 at 9:51 am
Pascvaks says:
December 18, 2010 at 5:34 am
“Hear hear… It does remind me of various American cop shows, where the commentator talks breathlessly about pursuits “sometimes up to 70 miles an hour” – in the UK, speed starts at 70mph.
Youz guys are sooooo insensitive… snif… snif.. Have to say, your beer does have a way of steeling one’s nerves a tad. Loved every minute! It’s a beautiful country, with beautiful people, who speak a beautiful language I can almost understand.
Actually a fairly cold December. Maybe only six Decembers since 1910 will remain colder.
Chickens….Home…..Roost
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2010/12/chickens-home-roost.html
I live in Oxfordshie in the UK and have just spent the last hour digging my car out from 8 inches of global warming. At 8.ooam the temeprature was -14 degrees.
Now, I have absolutely no qualifications or experience to express any view on climate, climate versus weather or weather. However, as a result of article after article in the MSM over the last 20 years, the general public and our politicians had, understandably, bought into the AGW theory. Every unusual hot spell, every dry spell, every bit of extreme weather, has been touted as “evidence” of AGW and no one ever got visibility to put for ward an alternative view.
I just get the feeling now though that there are, almost imperceptibly, changes afoot.
The statement by Philip Hammond reported thus is quite interesting on many levels:
After three successive bad winters, Mr Hammond has also asked John Beddington, the Government’s chief scientific adviser, to examine whether Britain’s transport planning should assume that this weather pattern will continue over the next 20 years.
You will all recall the statemant from some chap at the CRU UEA back in the early naughties saying something along the lines of “children in the UK wont know what snow looks like in a few years”.
Could it be that Mr Hammond is asking Mr Beddington publicly “What on earth is going on?”. Is he saying to Mr Beddington that you said this wouldn’t be happening now? Is he saying ” we have listened to you over the last 15 years and, as a result, we don’t have the means to keep transport and services going when we get prolonged cold spells – because you said it wouldn’t happen?
Headlines like “the coldest December since records began” simply do not fit with the propaganda we have been subject to.
Interesting times!
My brother was telling me all about the 2 foot of snow that appeared in Belfast last Thursday.
For myself I have just successfully returned (but not without drama) from Exeter (yes the home of the great Met Office) to Hampshire.
In Exeter it dumped about 6 inches last night which was enough that getting out of the place was a nightmare. Heavitree Road this morning was interesting.
Eau de Clutch Flambe at times.
But I was thinking, you know, the Met Office is down near the M5 junction which is always a bit clearer than the town because it’s on a busier and bigger road and not quite in the hills.
So maybe that’s what they were talking about when they said snow would be a thing of the past?
They meant that it would be easier to get into their building as it would be cleared.
E.M.Smith says:
December 19, 2010 at 12:57 am
I really do wonder at how so many European folks can be so much like farm animals. As long as they are fed and feel safe, they’re happy. Don’t really understand it, myself. In the country you know you are supposed to ride the horse, not be ridden… and you know that the “prime steer”, being fed rolled oats in the barn, is not a desired career path… as it ends badly.
It is a difference in emphasis. In Europe, the action that brings sense to Governments is called a strike. If you believe you can shoot through your Government’s stock of tanks and aircraft with a .38 pistol – you go right ahead. However in Europe, the entire army and airforce of a nation can be paralysed by people just not turning up for work.
Petroleum distillates are the oxygen of the armed forces, and they do not make themselves. It only takes less than a month for things to get twitchy.
How folks in the UK can be this cold, with that much tax nonsense, and just put up with it. It’s beyond me.
Public opinion takes a long time to change. When it does, it will take no prisoners.
It will be very intersting watching how this sorts itself out in the UK and the EU. There are going to be significant political stresses from the impacts of a decade of increasing cold.
Not at all. The financial crisis will hit first. The cold will be just another annoyance. That’s where the stress lies. It will be interesting to see what is left of the “modern” world once the dust settles on that. The year 1914 was once the “modern” world – can anyone even remember the countries and their flags?
That was less than a century ago. Still (just) in living memory.
Z says:
It is a difference in emphasis. In Europe, the action that brings sense to Governments is called a strike. If you believe you can shoot through your Government’s stock of tanks and aircraft with a .38 pistol – you go right ahead. However in Europe, the entire army and airforce of a nation can be paralysed by people just not turning up for work.
Well, we can do the same thing here. Every so often the truckers make a point or two by encircling the capitol or actually doing the speed limit on the freeway. It’s slightly effective.
I think the USSR is the model for the “modern revolution”. The folks driving the tanks just change sides and the guys making petrol deliverys pick which side to stop at.
BTW, you don’t use the .357 Mag (yeah, it’ll shoot a .38, but why bother?) on a tank. That’s just silly. You use the Russian technique. Shaft in the treads to stop it then petrol bombs to get it cooking. THEN you use the pistol … and primarily to enforce a diciplined passive exit from the vehicle rather than actually shooting anyone. They ARE someones brothers, sisters, sons, and daughters after all…
Done properly, nobody gets hurt at all. Done very very well, they change sides and bring their toys with them ala Russia.
Oh, and “ground fire” often does bring down aircraft. (but that starts to get outside the scope of this blog, so the topic probably ought to be dropped).
The bottom line is that nobody wants to take on a fully armed populace. Even with tanks and airplanes. It’s a losing game. The idea is to REMIND the politicians of that fact, not to actually get into a dust up…
So back at the UK. You’ve got your weather in a fit right now. You’ve got politicians that are not listening to reality. You’ve got an EU Overseer that’s not listening to (what to call them… “voters” isn’t quite right 😐 is it ‘subjects’ or are you still using that quaint word “citizens”…) but shouting stupid orders a lot. You think shutting down the bisquit delivery to the local tea shop is going to get their attention?
My expectation is that things will need to get a whole lot worse before anything gets much better. Unfortunately, with the tendency for a passive population to just sit there and take it until it can take it no more, that has “brittle failure” as the outcome. Two World Wars and a few dozen minor wars (Yugoslavia anyone?) argue for a tendency for things to “end badly” there, when that brittle failure happens.
So I’d rather be over here where I can always go out and pot a few ducks and pheasants if I get too hungry ’cause somebody or other is on strike. And where I can inform my local Sheriff (who WE elect) that if he needs a couple of extra deputies to keep the Feds in line, I’m available…
Sidebar: Oddity of American Law is that typically the County Sheriff is THE top dog law enforcement official in his county. Feds don’t like it, and try to ignore it, and sometimes push things too far. But in the end, The Sheriff is in charge. (If it hasn’t already been attacked in some area, I expect we’ll see this start to erode too as the drive to Central Authority runs…)
So in the UK and EU all I can see is folks gritting their teeth and taking it until it breaks, and badly. Here I can see folks ‘getting uppity’ and forcing change well before that fact. And by a combination of actions, starting at the ballot box. Oh, wait, we already started that… 😉 It is a much more gradualist and deformational failure of the established order. Basically, the early news of Uppity Folks breaking things tends to cause change to start sooner. And that avoids the need for a brittle failure option.
So in the UK, you will have a boat load of useless windmills during a time of extreme cold and with folks dying from the stupid decisions of the government. And you will fix this with holding your breath and refusing to eat your cookies?
No hoodwinking and twisting of words, and conjoured up excuses can disguise the fact that the weather is not warmer but cooler. Even in Australia this is so. Official thermometers should be taken away from heat retaining built up areas.
The real agenda is to create wealth for the elite and to prop up the bankrupt financial markets via a global tax on carbon dioxide gas emissions – which is a harmless inert essential gas. The scam originated in Britain with Margaret Thatcher on behalf of the elite she served, offering money for anyone who could come up with ideas to push it. In Australia, the chief pusher of the Global warming scam, is the ABC.
Its head, was not coincidentally, the head of the stock exchange. He represents the same elite and organisation, as did Margaret Thatcher and is a member of the globalising Mont Pelerin Society which is the driver of Globalisation. It set up the Institute for Economic affairs in London. and oversees similar think tanks in nations under the central banking system. The misnamed carbon tax is being pushed from Australia and the aim is for it to be a global tax in order not only to be a cash cow for the elite at the expense of the poor, but also to have control over industry to reduce population which relies on such for jobs and production.