Mercury rising
From The Viscount Monckton of Brenchley
Cancun, Mexico
I am in the plenary session hall at the Moon Palace, where diligent readers of this humble blog will recall that Ms. Figurehead, the president of the UN climate conference here in Cancun, opened these quaint proceedings last week with a prayer to the Moon Goddess of the ancient dwellers in what is now Mexico.
The vast, characterless session hall is known – appropriately enough – as the Cenote hall. Those familiar with the Spanish dialects of the New World will recognize the appropriateness of this designation. For a cenote is a sinkhole. Cenotes are widespread in the Mexican jungle, beneath great limestone caps. They were regarded as sacred by the “first nations”, as the indigenous peoples are now coyly called, and archaeologists have had much fun diving beneath the waters in the cenotes to recover all manner of pre-Columbian artefacts and assorted archaeological knick-knacks.
It is in the Sinkhole Hall that the President of Mexico, Señor Felipe Calderon, has just announced to admiring gasps from 1000 gaping enviro-zombs that he is to launch a Grand Initiative To Smash Global Warming And Make It Go Away, So There. And what, you may ask with a trembling frisson of salivating anticipation, was the President’s Grand Initiative?
Wait for it … wait for it!
OK, I’ll tell you. El Presidente is – tell it not in Gash and Ashkelon – going to ban the use of proper light-bulbs throughout Mexico. Ban light-bulbs. Throughout Mexico. Really and truly. I kid you not. Gee wow golly gosh.
As I sat and listened to the President, who talks even faster than me, I wondered if there was anything else new in his speech. Most of it sounded not just old but stale – a kooky cookie of a speech, long past its sell-by date.
The worstest ever problem the world has ever faced. Heard that before somewhere. Rising temperature. Natch: yet Cancun this morning was so cold, at 54 Fahrenheit, that it set a new 100-year record low for this day of this month (but don’t expect to read about this in any of the mainstream media: it’s Off Message). Rising sea levels. Pull the other one, Excellencia: it’s got bells on. Melting glaciers. Been there, done that, got the T-shirt. Need for international co-operation, courage, vision, yada yada. Gimme the cash: huge amounts of money from Western nations in reparation for their “climate debt” to developing nations like – er – Mexico. And so, tediously, ramblingly, near-hysterically on.
[Note: see also the new record low for Cancun in December here. – Anthony]
I turned to the rather spectacular young lady on my left, from the Eco-Village Movement (83,000 self-sustaining villages and urban communities in 100 countries), and asked whether the President had said something interesting that my indifferent comprehension of Mexican Spanish had failed to catch. No, she said, with a shapely sigh. She rather wondered why she had come.
There was a question-and-answer session: the only moment in the entire two-week beano when us ordinary citizens were allowed a voice. I was called to speak, but could not because my microphone had somehow been disconnected. Funny, that. So I passed the opportunity to a Singaporean gentleman who, it turns out, has made a fortune peddling a fuel additive which, he told me enthusiastically, improved average gas mileage by 10-35%. The Duke of Wellington would have said, “Sir, if you will believe that, you will believe anything.”
To pass the time – policemen with guns were not allowing anyone to leave while the President was in the room – I decided to calculate just how much “global warming” his Grand Initiative would forestall. I have recently been preparing a learned paper for the Econometrics Journal on the so-far-unaddressed but surely not-unimportant question of how to determine the amount of “global warming” that might actually be prevented by any proposed strategy to mitigate future “global warming” by taxing or regulating carbon dioxide emissions, or by adopting alternative technologies. So all the relevant equations were to hand.
Here goes, then. Electricity accounts for 40% of global carbon dioxide emissions. Mexico accounts for 1% of world electricity consumption. Light-bulbs use at most 3% of that electricity. Mercury-vapor fluorescent bulbs reduce electricity consumption per candela by – at the very most – 33% compared with incandescent bulbs that one can actually read by. So, once the President’s Initiativo Grande has been put into full effect throughout Mexico, world carbon emissions will have fallen by 40% of 1% of 3% of 33%, or a dizzying 0.004%.
So far, so good. We shall generously assume that 0.004% of the entire manmade greenhouse-gas contribution since 1750 will be forestalled by the Grand Initiative. Now for the equation. The amount of CO2 concentration forestalled by, say, 2100, is in the present instance, 0.004% of the difference between the CO2 concentration predicted for that year, 836 parts per million by volume on the IPCC’s A2 emissions scenario, and the CO2 concentration of 278 ppmv which the IPCC thinks was present in 1750.
So we’re looking at 0.00004(836-278), or 0.0223 ppmv. Not a lot, really.
Now we calculate the “global warming” that will be forestalled by reducing carbon emissions by this amount. For this we need another equation: 88% of 5.35 times the natural logarithm of [836 / (836 – 0.0223)]. And the answer? A little over 0.0001 Celsius, or around one five-thousandth of a Fahrenheit degree. And only that much if the IPCC’s exaggerated estimate of future warming is correct. If not, make that well below one ten-thousandth of a Fahrenheit degree. Either way, extravagantly pointless.
In the UK, the Climate Change and National Economic Hara-Kiri department has already enthusiastically banned real light-bulbs in favor of the flickering, mercury-filled alternatives which – if the appropriate EU “Directive” is followed – require a specialist cleanup team at a cost of $3000 every time one of the wretched things gets smashed.
On my recent visit to the Department, formerly the down-to-earth Ministry of Agriculture and now the up-in-the-air Ministry of Fantastical Nonsense, I asked its chief number-cruncher whether he could show me his calculations demonstrating how much “global warming” the $1.2 trillion that the Ministry of Madness plans to spend over the next 40 years will forestall.
He harrumphed that he had done no such calculation, so I asked: “In that case, Professor, on what rational basis is any of this expenditure being made or proposed?” Red-faced with embarrassment, he couldn’t answer that one either. Neither can I, for only a fool hunts a reason for the doings of fools.
However, with my econometric equations I can now work out how much “global warming” the Ministry of Pointless Extravagance will forestall with its – well, with its pointless extravagance. We begin with two very generous assumptions: first, that the IPCC’s estimates of how much “global warming” CO2 causes are not absurd exaggerations; secondly, that the Ministry of Misplaced Munificence has not flagrantly underestimated the cost of shutting down 80% of the British carbon economy by 2050.
Once again, then, hold on to your sombreros, amigos. Using the same analysis as before, there will be 506 ppmv CO2 by 2050, or just 5 ppmv less if the Ministry of Mumbo-Jumbo gets its way. “Global warming” forestalled will be just 0.03 Celsius, or around a twentieth of a Fahrenheit degree. And the cost per Celsius degree of warming prevented? A mere $34 trillion, or seven years’ total worldwide gross domestic product.
And that is why, Mr. President, one is less than impressed by your Grand Initiative. Don’t you think it strange, gentle reader, that after 22 years of The Process the very first serious calculations indicating just how spectacularly, gloriously futile is every proposed strategy for curbing carbon emissions are those that will appear in my forthcoming paper? No one, as best I can discover, has ever attempted to do this essential math before. Why on Earth not? Because, of course, the climate extremists know perfectly well what the answer will be.
Must stop now: time to pray to the Moon Goddess. At least the moon is brighter than those miserable new light-bulbs.
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Cynthia Lauren said:
“God bless each of you, Yes…and even my Atheist friends…”
—————–
Cynthia, thank you for the pleasant sentiments, but, really, you don’t need to capitalize the word ‘atheist’ any more than I feel obliged to capitalize the word ‘god’.
phlogiston says:
December 10, 2010 at 12:09 am
OK, I’ll tell you. El Presidente is – tell it not in Gash and Ashkelon – going to ban the use of proper light-bulbs throughout Mexico. Ban light-bulbs. Throughout Mexico. Really and truly. I kid you not. Gee wow golly gosh.
Its Gath, not Gash – but a nice metaphor none the less.
———————-
Since this missive (mithive) originated in Mexico, it might merely be a matter of ‘seseo’ versus ‘ceceo’.
So who followed the Moon Goddess worship ceremony as the “Cenote speaker”?
How many Cenotes (C notes) will their wealth-sucking schemes cost?
Nib says:
December 10, 2010 at 10:45 am
“AGWers prayed to the goddess of the Moon. Could that be because they realize that the Moon does influence climate? Is there also a Mayan goddess of the Sun… a goddess of Magnetic Forces… a goddess of Ocean Oscillations? Or has it got something to do with Ban Ki Moon?”
Well, Nib, you’ve danced all around it but the simple reason is because they are lunatics. (If you’ll note; “luna” is another term for “moon.”)
@Brian H
‘1DandyTroll;
You’re seriously confused about British/SI numbering. Each step is the square of the previous. So “billion” is one million million (10^12). Trillion is one billion billion (10^24). So in American terms a British Trillion is a trillion trillion.’
You should really come out of the past and the lengthier scale and join the small folks of the modern era that has adopted a slightly easier scale, it’ll thus get much easier to communicate. :p
Oh, Oliver…..Oliver……..oliver……..
Originally, I was just gonna say ‘thanks, my friend’ and (somehow) give a ‘High Five’ to Steamboat Jack…..obviously a true MAN from Texas. …but, since I read ALL of the comments when I thoroughly enjoy a topic… I’ve dutifully ceased any initial thoughts of humble ‘blushing’ (’cause acknowledgment of thanks TO me, frankly makes me wanna blush! I ‘thought’ it was ’cause I was ‘a bit’ embarrassed, right??? well…well…well… Now I read what ‘seems like’ ‘expert knowledge’ of where blushes come from’…..(But, gentlemen…perhaps they truly do have two sources. Maybe blushes originate in either ANGER ‘or’ EMBARRASSMENT. Either way ~ a warm flooding hits the cheeks, right? Okay. I’ll research blushing later.
I thought best to just take another sip of coffee, and Thank GOD for men like Christopher and Jack…and even guys like YOU, oliver. For, you see ~ for all the ‘wit’ for slappin’ me with a ‘little a’ ‘little g’ comments… It’s only pure cynicism emanating outta that Heart (okay, okay……..’heart’) of yours that made you…insisted that you ‘defend’ your position by writing that ‘smear’ to me.
Do you know what that REALLY is, Oliver? That’s ANGER, kiddo. I bet you were blushing when you wrote it, even. I mean, COME ON, Oliver. How petty ~ or low~ does one have to be??? I FLY through my typing…… and now that I remember my ‘state of mind’ when I typed ‘Atheists’ yesterday……….. It was because there’s a cool piece of scripture in the Bible (I enjoy The Message, myself ~ but, I have over 70 that I peruse from time to time…, just f.y.i.) that says ‘God is not a respecter of persons (ie:humans).’ And, you may enjoy researching that verse, Dear. ‘Cause I was only giving RESPECT. EQUAL RESPECT AND EQUAL ‘PRAYER’ TO EACH INDIVIDUAL ON THIS SITE. I was not ‘doing the human-thing’ by respecting those I empathized more with (like Steamboat, for instance ~ for I’d gladly stand at an open window ANY TIME for a husband or my family of THAT caliber, in other words, I’d ‘give my life’ for them…Oliver, okay?)
But…………here’s the point, in case you’re now getting a headache because of those little nasties that egg you on daily… for I know they don’t like reading words from a sold-out Christian…….but, I was jus’ being LOVING AND RESPECTFUL to those of ‘your ilk’ oliver……..that’s all. I meant NO HARM…….get that? I meant no harm eIthEr way, Dear. And………..by the by………….YOUR pettiness (as I stood in the window wishing a blessing to all and finding later that you’d shot an arrow ‘near’ where that window was (typing-wise, Oliver……you were slinging ‘arrows’ of ‘words’……..do you get that? I hope you do, seriously, I do.)
‘Cause today……….folks that STAND FOR THE WORD OF GOD ‘are’ gettin’ ‘shot at’, Oliver. It hasn’t been ‘real arrows’ as of yet, perhaps…but, they’re REAL nonetheless. And, kiddo…..Kiddo………..KIDDO………we’re still standing. We’re standing in LOVE AND IN TRUTH and that’s ALL THAT COUNTS. It ‘matters not’ if no one knows me………or they give me a capital C or a ‘little teensy tiny c’…….. or anything petty like that, Oliver. What MATTERS is that men like Steamboat, Monckton, Beck, heck…even Davey Crockett….(I bet you’d love to read his biography, Oliver. It’d hearten you, much more than reading Hess’s Glass Bead Game or……Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Madness……like I used to read when just a kid……..) or…….gosh…….. just CHOOSE THE MAN, OLIVER. Let’s all read about when Stalin’s daughter turned into an IMMEDIATE CHRISTIAN by sitting by her father’s (Father’s?) bedside and saw him fighting off the demons that desired to take him to Hell….?(would you prefer I wrote…..’hell’??? Too Bad. EITHER WAY, IT’S THE SAME, OLIVER ~ don’t you GET THAT???) IT’S ‘THE SAME’. Your ‘little g’ ‘little a stuff’ is CHILD’S PLAY, and it was a nasty arrow, Oliver. A petty……nasty arrow, Dear. The TRUTH of the matter is that you guys that believe stuff like that want to actually BE ‘gods’ ‘YOURSELVES’…and just like Shirley McClaine (sp?) you’re jus’ squeekin’ and a squeekin’ about stuff that doesn’t hahaha….’progress’….hahaha….*oh, THAT’S rich!…the argument one iota.
Gosh……..I feel like I’m ‘almost blushing’…..now, I’m laughing and I’m gonna go ‘out back’ and smoke a Winfield Red, Oliver… they ‘calm me’ and I ENJOY them… and, I swear to you, Oliver. I’d do just like I’d do with that ChrisC1983 or whatever…. I’d invite you to hunt ‘roo (yes………we hunt them. Why? They EAT OUR COWS GRASS, Oliver! but……..that’s another issue……….and I want my smoke, now.)….or, I’d make you some GREAT turkey minestrone soup and we’d discuss this after tea by a fire on the beach……….(they’re still ‘allowing’ that, so……..it’d be okay…..) ‘Cause DEBATE is what it’s ALL ABOUT TODAY, Oliver. The arrows today are verbal and we’d best use these………but, I was JUST saying……….just sayin’ Dear……..that I respect you all.
An’…….yeah, of COURSE. I still respect you even after the ‘petty jab’…but……enough is enough. ‘atheists’ and their man-made crap have pushed us around long enough. It’s time to get the BIG TRUTH out and stop the infestation for good. You don’t feed ants, do you, Oliver??? You stamp them out. That’s what I’m doing by standing in this open ‘window’/forum. I’m standing up for my family…and, Oliver? That INCLUDES YOU.
Be blessed.
c.L. thorpe
HOLY SMOKE, Cynthia!!!
Them thar Winston Reds are some potent herb.
Yeah……..I like ‘um. (They’ve STILL got the cute lil’ motto on the side of the hard pack, too. It says: Force No Friend – Fear No Foe. Cool motto, huh? (And, I AM having a good laugh, Oliver…’cause when Ian read my ‘rant’ he poured me another cupper (it’s what they say out here) and also said you’d always be welcome out here
so we could ‘discuss’ stuff under incredible stars on the beach across from us. Isn’t that cool?!) Just think. Working with Angus cattle and cross-bred (oophs! nawww…
they REALLY ARE called ‘cross-breds’….) sheep during the day under the vast Aussie skies (I’d provide you the sometimes necessary ‘fly veil’, even) then – a hearty meal
and then we’d hop on the 4-wheelers, with a ute or two… ~ over the ‘hummocks’ (yep. it’s what they’re called) to the beach where you and I could debate about how we’ll best start the fire……..first, of course………then, break out…….what??? Some of Monckton’s wine they pour over in the U.K.???? Nawwww… I’d get us some… I AM thinking now…….hmmmmmm…… we could start with Cooper’s Pale Ale, I suppose…
Then, after ‘the beach’ we’d come back to the farm (most likely, the next morning… ’cause we may talk a bit…) and I’d quietly do eggs (googs) and bacon with a ton of great toast, O.J. and coffee…served in those cute lil’ mugs I jus’ got from Watts Up, of course.
Then, ‘the whole globe’ would be a happier place, indeed, and we’d be the richer for it, Oliver.
Ian seriously suggests that you could ‘google earth’ us ~ we’re under the Coorong a few miles (3.5 hours from Adelaide) and right in back of the home is a ‘salt lake’ sometimes known as Lake Nadzab. The guy who ‘founded’ this place called it “Nadzab” after an a reconnaissance base he worked at in New Guinna. It’s really an amazing place and you’re welcome ‘anytime’, Oliver.
(Can you just imagine a bunch of us – all jus’ hanging out on the beach…..under the stars……by a warm fire… me, smoking WINFIELD Reds (I’d actually smoke Winstons, if they had them) and anyone else jus’ relaxing the way they like?
Enough, though. I seriously wish you the best. It’s just that we’ve gotta stop with petty stuff. That’s all. I used to BE AN ATHEIST, Oliver. I truly was. Then……God decided to ‘stop by’ one evening. That’s all it took for me. I really pray that He’ll do that for you, sometime, too. An intellect is a terrible thing to waste, and as Einstein once said…… (I’m wingin’ it on the quote)…..he roughly said that when man blends his intellect with his Creator…….well……..that’s when TRUE genius ignites.
Warm smiles to you, Oliver – from your ‘verbal pistol-packin Larikin’ friend’ in the Outback who truly hopes you’ll take her up on our invite.
C.L. Thorpe
Oliver! I just re-read these comments and I thoroughly enjoyed the ‘mi’th’ive’ part…
BRILLIANT! I love real Bar’th’elona Spanish when it’s spoken/written, whatever!
It’s Sunday over here (and while I FEEL like goin’ into a diatribe about how we’re even forced to use instituted Greek ‘gods’ such as our days of the week ~ (talk about indoctrination! Geez…!) I’m rather gonna go hang out in the kitchen and muse about the innumerable brilliant minds that stop by here on Watts Up…all my talk about my soup has Ian and I hungry.
Well, Cynthia, there’s plenty of life in you. Good on ya! But some of your data’s been a little too long on the barbie.
When it comes to the days of the week, it’s the Teutons you should take it up with, not the Greeks. Although, in fairness, all those gods drifted over from even further east.
There’s moon, tiwaz, wotan, thor, frig (a bona fide feminist) then it’s off to Rome.
They’re ALL silly to me.