NOAA press release below, gotta love the word “onslaught” added for dramatic effect. I’m sure Ryan Maue’s end season summary of hurricane ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) for the 2010 will be forthcoming soon. – Anthony
Extremely Active Atlantic Hurricane Season was a ‘Gentle Giant’ for U.S.
NOAA’s Prediction for Active Season Realized; Slow Eastern Pacific Season Sets Record
November 29, 2010
Hurricanes Karl, Igor and Julia (from left to right on Sept. 16) were part of the onslaught of Atlantic storms this season.
Download here (Credit: NOAA)
According to NOAA the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, which ends tomorrow, was one of the busiest on record. In contrast, the eastern North Pacific season had the fewest storms on record since the satellite era began.
In the Atlantic Basin a total of 19 named storms formed – tied with 1887 and 1995 for third highest on record. Of those, 12 became hurricanes – tied with 1969 for second highest on record. Five of those reached major hurricane status of Category 3 or higher.
These totals are within the ranges predicted in NOAA’s seasonal outlooks issued on May 27 (14-23 named storms; 8-14 hurricanes; 3-7 major hurricanes) and August 5 (14-20 named storms; 8-12 hurricanes; 4-6 major hurricanes). An average Atlantic season produces 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
Large-scale climate features strongly influenced this year’s hurricane activity, as they often do. This year, record warm Atlantic waters, combined with the favorable winds coming off Africa and weak wind shear aided by La Niña energized developing storms. The 2010 season continues the string of active hurricane seasons that began in 1995.
But short-term weather patterns dictate where storms actually travel and in many cases this season, that was away from the United States. The jet stream’s position contributed to warm and dry conditions in the eastern U.S. and acted as a barrier that kept many storms over open water. Also, because many storms formed in the extreme eastern Atlantic, they re-curved back out to sea without threatening land.
“As NOAA forecasters predicted, the Atlantic hurricane season was one of the most active on record, though fortunately most storms avoided the U.S. For that reason, you could say the season was a gentle giant,” said Jack Hayes, Ph.D., director of NOAA’s National Weather Service.
Other parts of the Atlantic basin weren’t as fortunate. Hurricane Tomas brought heavy rain to earthquake-ravaged Haiti, and several storms, including Alex, battered eastern Mexico and Central America with heavy rain, mudslides and deadly flooding.
Though La Niña helped to enhance the Atlantic hurricane season, it also suppressed storms from forming and strengthening in the eastern North Pacific. Of that region’s seven named storms this year, three grew into hurricanes and two of those became major hurricanes. This is the fewest named storms (previous record low was eight in 1977) and the fewest hurricanes (previous record low was four in 1969, 1970, 1977 and 2007) on record since the satellite era began in the mid-1960s. An average eastern North Pacific season produces 15 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
NOAA’s National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. NOAA’s National Weather Service operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. Visit us online at weather.gov and on Facebook.
NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/usnoaagov.
h/t to Chris Horner
I was under the impression that the 2010 season was well below average.
When was this “onslaught” that I missed? 100 years ago, since nothing landed in the US, we would have assumed there were no hurricanes at all that formed…
That’s the way I like my Hurricanes – with sympathy and mercy.
Yep, not even a strong breeze in SWFL … Except that coming from NOAA and the weather channel.
I have my own hurricane forecasting, and I say the cold fronts chased the hurricanes away. It was like watching a ping pong game.
If the data doesn’t fit, make it up.
That’s like the sunspot number where specs qualify as sunspots… in the case of “named” hurricanes, as soon as they saw a cloud twirl, they gave a name. It’s easy to win when you control the game.
Mostly drama and very little damage. The mission is to predict storms and as predicted, the predictions were off.
2010 will go on the record as a season we experienced an onslaught of guessing that missed the mark.
And I hardly noticed…and I’m an operational meteorologist!
“Gentle Giant” sounds like a huge hedge.
The jet stream’s position is “short-term weather”?
Riiiggght.
Anyhow, it’s global cooling that maximizes storm activity. This whole discussion is bolloxed.
I guess it should be noted that although no hurricanes hit the US, hurricane igor laid quite a pounding on newfoundland, Canada causing about 100 million dollars in damage.
“In the Atlantic Basin a total of 19 named storms formed – tied with 1887 and 1995 for third highest on record. Of those, 12 became hurricanes – tied with 1969 for second highest on record.”
Nice apples to oranges comparisons. And the non-existent satellites counted everyone of the storms in 1887 and 1969. So very tiresome.
Joe Bastardi seems to agree with NOAA on this one..
Mostly a question of the Bermuda high failing to connect to the Azore`s high and set up a steering pattern that would have taken a lot of those E thru J storms into the US gulf and eastern seaboard.
Climatology had storms going in all kinds of places (on a projected (by models) track map, climatology is often wayyyyyyyy off the actual and/or expected path as that depends on current WEATHER)
Bring Earl, Igor and Julia onto land in the US and it would have been fugly. NOAA is doing their best to not take the hit for us not taking the hit. Things tend to even out and in a year of global `quiet` on the tropical cyclone front, the Atlantic basin was a hornet`s nest compared to the rest of the world.
I am confused. In 2005, Wilma was the 22nd named storm.
ACE?, where do they accumulate all that energy?, Was it not that it was accumulated in that poisonous gas CO2 “piggy bank”?. Wonder if it needs a bailout too.
I’m not sure that the criticisms of NOAA wrt the Atlantic basin are fully justified. Direct number comparisons with earlier years may indeed be inappropriate, as James Sexton points out, but there clearly were a significant number of storms. The major factor for the US was that they stayed at sea. With past studies having shown that Atlantic basin storm activity reaching the US coast tends to be higher in cooling periods, the US should be expecting storms over the next couple of decades. This year the storms did indeed exist, but for some reason didn’t keep going west. In the next few years, who knows? The US might not be so lucky.
James Sexton says:
November 29, 2010 at 11:39 am
“So very tiresome.”
I agree! Just because they “named” a storm doesn’t mean the storm deserved a name e.g. Bonnie, Fiona, Gaston, Nicole, …
I, too, look forward to Ryan Maue’s ACE report, which should cast the 2010 season in a more realistic light…
With the regime changing from El nino to La nina, it shouldn’t be a surprise that it got windy in places.
James Sexton @ur momisugly November 29, 2010 at 11:39 am
Also consider their magnitude.
There’s a hunnert million worth of rusty pickups in Newfoundland? Who knew?
I just thank God every day for the grand solar minimum that will teach these schmucks a lesson they will never forget. Those puny little humans do not control the earth’s weather. It’s the sun stupid.
Rick Caird says: wrote
November 29, 2010 at 11:59 am
“I am confused. In 2005, Wilma was the 22nd named storm.”
That was the year they had to start the alphabet over again because they ran out of letters or they went to a numbering system or something like that.
I vaguely recall that hurricane frequency was higher in the Little Ice Age.
http://tinyurl.com/27pfvv4
http://tinyurl.com/2daeb9o
http://tinyurl.com/2vy5x57
http://www.co2science.org/subject/h/summaries/hurratlancent.php
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/10/13/klotzbach-and-gray-final-2010-two-week-hurricane-forecast/#comment-506217
Shouldn’t there be a size requirement for a storm to be called a hurricane? Several of them this year were about the size of Lake Okeechobee (see the photo in the story header) or completely indestinguishable as an organized storm of any size. Additionally, I saved a number of the east satellite shots where “hurricanes” were simply not distinguishable from the front that was moving through at the time or just appeared to be a disorganized cloud formation with no visible rotation at all. See East Vis for 22 Oct 10 and East Vis for 29 Oct 10 and East Vis for 5 Nov 10 and East Vis for 7 Nov 10 as examples.
“Decreased frequency of North Atlantic polar lows associated with future climate warming”
“Our results provide a rare example of a climate change effect in which a type of extreme weather is likely to decrease, rather than increase.”
Nature 467, 309-312 (16 September 2010) |
doi:10.1038/nature09388;
Received 14 August 2009;
Accepted 26 July 2010
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v467/n7313/full/nature09388.html