Have a look at these two juxtaposed news clips from the UK Daily Mail, one from October 28th, 2010, the other from November 28th, 2010.
and here’s today’s news:
Now have a look at what the Met Office issued on 10-28-2010:
That missive comes from this page where they gave up on seasonal outlooks, but they don’t actually tell you where you can find the “monthly outlook” forecast.
A search for “monthly outlook” yields nothing, pretty lame. But, there are some suggestions it may be a paid service.
Anybody know where to find it?
In other news, new records have been set.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/pr20101128.html
Big chill breaks November temperature records
28 November 2010
Last night saw November minimum temperature records fall across the country. Most notably both Wales and Northern Ireland recorded the coldest November night since records began. In Wales, temperatures fell to -18.0 °C at Llysdinam, near Llandrindod Wells, Powys. Northern Ireland recorded -9.5 °C at Loch Fea.
Scotland recorded minimum temperature of -15.3 °C at Loch Glascarnoch, whilst England recorded -13.5 °C at Topcliffe in North Yorkshire.
The UK’s lowest ever recorded temperature in November was – 23.3 °C recorded in Braemar, in the Scottish Highlands, on November 14, 1919.
The cold and snow is expected to continue to affect many parts of the UK today and through the coming week. Met Office forecasters are warning of further severe frosts, snow and icy conditions. The north-easterly winds, with a significant wind chill will also make it feel bitterly cold as daytime temperatures struggle to rise above freezing.
Met Office warnings and advisories of severe weather for snow and icy roads are in force for parts of northern and eastern England, parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Further snowfall is expected through Scotland and the north east on Sunday.
Met Office Chief Forecaster, Steve Willington said: “The very low overnight temperatures we have seen are likely to be repeated through the coming week as the cold and snowy weather continues. As winds increase into next week, it will feel increasingly cold with a significant wind chill to contend with by day and night.”
“Icy roads and snow will be a risk for many, and the public are advised to stay up to date with the forecast to make sure they have the latest information.”
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“In defence of the Met Office, I would like to point out that their forecast for the next 84 hours is always excellent.”
If you believe that John I suggest you take a screen grab of the BBC home page everyday for a month. I did, and found that the MET office was barely accurate over a 24 hour period and not accurate beyond that.
Their forecasts were considerably more accurate when they used a combination of weather balloons and people on the West Coast of Ireland telegraphing (later telexing) and phoning through the weather being experienced there in term of wind, precipitation and temperature. It was set up to give forecasts for shipping, they are quite good at that because the “forecasts” tend to be based on reported observations, nothing wrong with that by the way shipping still needs to know what the weather’s like even if the forecast hasn’t been produced by a computer.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/11/28/freaking-out-about-nyc-sea-level-rise-is-easy-to-do-when-you-dont-pay-attention-to-history/#more-28551
November 28, 2010 at 11:42 pm
[snip – we don’t need vulgarity in your comments to push your point of view repeatedly. – take a time out ~mod]
DO TELL: How is evidence of what happened both 1000 and 2000 years ago, considered ‘vulgarity?’
You’ll be talking about that, won’t you?
In the meantime, there’s this to REMIND you:
HOW IS THIS VULGARITY?!?!?!?!
http://www.archaeoleg.org.uk/pdf/roman/KEY%20SITES%20SE%20WALES%20ROMAN.pdf
HOW IS THIS VULGARITY?!?!?!?!
http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/Discovery-of-log-boat-shows.5537797.jp
HOW IS THIS VULGARITY?!?!?!?!
http://www.maldonsx.freeserve.co.uk/Maeldune/first_maldonians.htm
HOW IS THIS VULGARITY?!?!?!?!
http://www.severnestuary.net/sep/pdfs/severnarchaeodesignguidefinal06.pdf
HOW IS THIS VULGARITY?!?!?!?!
http://www.rcahmw.gov.uk/HI/ENG/Heritage+of+Wales/Places/Sea+and+Coast/
TALK ABOUT THAT!
Kev-in-UK says:
November 28, 2010 at 1:56 pm
and just so some of non-UK folk can see the **** we have to put up with – this is from the BBC earlier this year
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8462890.stm
We are starting to see a mantra from these climate ‘scientists’ that “the observations are wrong not the model”. This is stated at least twice in this link, we hear it about ARGO temperature reports and about the tropical tropospheric hot-spot.
When a model is validated against the real world and the model results don’t match the observation claiming the real world is incorrect is not even ‘post normal science’ it is anti-science.
The -18 c temperature in Wales was not only the lowest recorded in Wales, but the lowest for anywhere in the UK for that date. I have 35cm of snow in my garden and the children are home because the schools are all closed. Its only November!
From Monday’s Daily Mail:
Temperatures now forecast to plummet to MINUS 20 Degrees C,
The big freeze has brought mayhem to commuters this morning, after the coldest November night in a quarter of a century.
Motoring groups have predicted a ‘nightmare’, with roads blocked by snow and ice and cars struggling to start after sitting on driveways in sub-zero conditions all weekend.
And a London Underground strike has crippled the network, causing lengthy delays in the freezing temperatures for millions of commuters.
The Siberian blast has already led to heavy snow blanketing swathes of the country.
Forecasters warned that the mercury will plunge even lower – to minus 20C – as the severe weather continues until next week, with snow due to hit London and the Home Counties tonight.
To Darren Parker (Nov 28th 4.09 p.m.) in South Oz,
your heat has been transferred across ‘The Ditch’ mate (the Tasman Sea to the rest of you non Aussie/Kiwis). A long awaited for strong La Nina summer is upon us and showing all of the usual signs that we will enjoy a decent, long, hot summer here in many parts of N.Z. The farmers won’t like it of course because of the possibility of drought.
Parts of the Mainland (South Islander’s name for their island) have broken November records over the weekend for T-Max. Central Otago which enjoys a continental style climate, hit 31C. To have such high temperatures at this time in our southern spring is not totally unusual though.
Just to put a spoke in the comments of those concerned about the change of seasons on December 1st consider this, the seasons are an astronomical event caused by a set of astronomical circumstances. The weather and climate that results from those change in circumstances are merely the symptoms of those changes. Without the tilt of the earth’s axis there would be no seasons as we know them. The cardinal dates in the changing of the seasons are the solstices and equinoxes. Thanks to politics and religion we (or is that the Romans) missed the chance to align the calendar with the seasons. We have lived with the confused results of that for over 2,000 years.
Dates like December 1st etc have been used by latter day scientists such as meteorologists to define their seasons, i.e. the “Meteorological Seasons,” in recent times.
For me I like to simplify things by having two seasons. Here are my two southern seasons. The Cold Season starts on May 6th (mid autumn in the S.H. – half way between the autumn equinox and the winter solstice) through to Nov 5th (half way between the spring equinox and the summer solstice). The hot season is Nov 6th-May 5th. This puts the hottest time of the year in the middle, i.e. the first week of February. It doesn’t quite work out so well for the Cold Season as July is traditionally colder here than August, but August is traditionally when the snow is heaviest and corresponds to the middle of the snowfall period consistently.
Based upon predictions that this La Nina will be on a par with the strong La Ninas of the 1970’s and in particular 1974, we can expect this southern summer to also be on a par with the summer of 1974-75 (BTW the hottest ‘Hot Season’ experienced here in my 53 years on the planet, 0.3 degrees C above the summer of 1998-99). The hottest recorded ‘Hot Season here was in 1934-35, another 0.3 C hotter again. The caveat on this though is the fact that the southern winter here of 1975 was one of the coldest on record and snow fell in my home town of Palmerston North for one of the few times in the past 130 years!
This small variation and the spread of the hottetst ‘Hot Seasons’ over the recorded period (1928-2010) shows to me that what we are experiencing in both hemispheres, and in different parts of those different hemipheres, is nothing more than the natural variation that has long controlled our earth’s climate.
Although the variation of the Hot Seasons has changed little over the recorded period, the Cold Seasons have shown a slow rise in T-Max Mean for my location in New Zealand. My graph plots for a purely subjective estimate for mountain snowfall here from 1980-2010, are almost a copy of the recently posted measured snowfalls for Santa Fe that cover the same period. The upshot of that is the recent years have seen an increase in frequency of falls and greater quantities , similar to the Santa Fe records for the 1970’s (unfortunately my incomplete records, there are a few gaps, started in 1980). There is strong speculation that we are in for an increased La Nina dominant period such as 1945-1975. If that is true then I for one have no fear of what is to come in the next three decades. It is nothing our generations haven’t experienced before. It is the suggestion that the declining activity on the sun may see us return to something akin to the early 19th century, i.e. the Dalton Minimum or worse, that is more worrying.
Cheers
Coops
David A. Evans says:
November 28, 2010 at 10:56 pm (Edit)
What Tallbloke didn’t mention is that Topcliffe is an airfield site.
For light aircraft only.
The Vale of York often gets winter temperature inversions which depress valley bottom temperatures under freezing fogs. That will be why it was 6C colder than my locality.
Forget the Met Office – it’s just another arm of the carbon-taxing-brainwashing-lying-propaganda machine, and a national joke and an international embarrassment.
As for Cancun, it’s been widely ignored except for the Independent on Sunday which put it on their front page. They shouldn’t have bothered because Cancun is just another economic meeting for rich people in poor countries to try and scam/browbeat/guilt-trip poor people in rich countries out of hundreds of billions of dollars, and there’s not a real scientist in sight.
If you want a prediction, how about this one –
NEW ICE AGE “TO BEGIN IN 2014”
Russian scientist to alarmists: “Sun heats Earth!”
Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of space research at Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in St. Petersburg, Russia, predicts that a new “Little Ice Age” could begin in just four years. Abdussamatov explains that average annual sun activity has experienced an accelerated decrease since the 1990s.
Head of the Russian-Ukrainian project “Astrometria” http://www.bobbrinsmead.com/e_Abdussamatov.html on the Russian segment of the International Space Station, Abdussamatov’s theory is that “long-term variations in the amount of solar energy reaching the Earth are the main and principal reasons driving and defining the whole mechanism of climatic changes from the global warmings to the Little Ice Ages to the big glacial periods.
In his speech, Abdussamatov took on advocates of the theory of man-caused warming who want to curtail our use of hydrocarbon fuels. He contended, instead, that a reasonable way to combat coming cooling trends would be “to maintain economic growth in order to adapt to the upcoming new Little Ice Age in the middle of the 21st century.”
Sun’s activity determines temperatures
Abdussamatov argues that total sun irradiance, or TSI, is the primary factor responsible for causing climate variations on Earth, not carbon dioxide. “Carbon dioxide is not guilty,” says Abdussamatov. “As for what lies ahead in the coming decades, it is not catastrophic warming, but a global, and very prolonged temperature drop.”
Abdussamatov pointed to the English astronomer Walter Maunder, who noticed that sunspots had been generally absent from 1645 to 1715. That period coincided with the middle and coldest part of the Little Ice Age, which began around 1650 and extended through 1850.
“There is now an unavoidable advance toward a global decrease, a deep temperature drop comparable to the Maunder minimum,” he wrote. “Already there are signs of the future deep temperature drop. The observed global warming of the climate of the Earth is not caused by the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gasses, but by extraordinarily high solar intensity that extended over virtually the entire past century. Future decrease in global temperature will occur even if anthropogenic ejection of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere rises to record levels. The implementation of the Kyoto Protocol aimed to rescue the planet from the greenhouse effect should be put off at least 150 years.”
The full article & his presentation can be found at http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=155225
****************************************
As if that wasn’t enough – here’s something for all those bloated egos at Cancun and the IPCC:
“Consensus was reached before the research had begun.”
Dr Richard Lindzen, Professor at MIT UN-IPCC Lead Author:
“It’s not 2,500 people offering their consensus, I participated in that. Each person who is an author writes one or two pages in conjunction with someone else…but ultimately, it is written by representatives of governments, of environmental organizations like the Union of Concerned Scientists, and industrial organizations, each seeking their own benefit. Controlling carbon is kind of a bureaucrat’s dream. If you control carbon, you control life.
“One of the things the scientific community is pretty agreed on is those things [to control carbon emissions] will have virtually no impact on climate no matter what the models say. So the question is do you spend trillions of dollars to have no impact? And that seems like a no-brainer.
“At present, the greenhouse forcing is already about three-quarters of what one would get from a doubling of CO2. But average temperatures rose only about 0.6 degrees since the beginning of the industrial era, and the change hasn’t been uniform – warming has largely occurred during the periods from 1919 to 1940 and from 1976 to 1998, with cooling in between. Researchers have been unable to explain this discrepancy.
“Current climate models would have predicted a substantially greater increase in the past temperature than has been observed in the past 150 years, perhaps +3 deg C compared to the +0.6 deg C we have witnessed.” (testimony to the House of Lords Select Committee 2005)
Hello everyone, just dropping by to tell that these below normal temperatures are affecting pretty much all of western Europe. I don’t recall ever wearing full winter clothing this early. The Met Office can’t forecast the weather for they do not know, or do not want to know, the dynamics that rule our climate. In their blind pursuit for money with global warming catastrophism they forget about doing their job.
Meanwhile, folk in the UK should keep a close [eye?] on Natural Gas storage, present figures are considerably below what they were this time last year. Will it be this winter that we’ll have a household supply failure, beyond the usual industry supply failures?
Haha – I read this story a couple of weeks ago and placed a friendly wager in the office on the back of it that we’d have an early, cold winter. I’m ready to collect 🙂
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1321710/Siberian-swans-fly-early-winter-snow-hits-British-forecast-Friday.html
Not sure whether anyone has posted this, the November 1st monthly outlook is at:
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/22737-bbc-weather-monthly-outlook/page__st__374
It has not turned out to be accurate, shock.
They are still claiming ‘that with an overall warming trend one can expect cold snap incidents like this’!!!
That missive comes from this page where they gave up on seasonal outlooks, but they don’t actually tell you where you can find the “monthly outlook” forecast.
A search for “monthly outlook” yields nothing, pretty lame. But, there are some suggestions it may be a paid service.
——————————–
It was quite difficult, it was under:
Weather -> UK -> Forecast -> UK, region and location forecasts -> Day 16-30
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html
How anyone is meant to find it when they hide it like that is beyond me! 😉
Competition Time. Spot a moving wind turbine in the UK or Ireland. (The winner gets 10 tonnes of Co2 credits from the ccx exchange)
I have passed 2 wind turbine farms in the past 3 days and none of the turbines are moving. Is any part of the isles got a moving wind turbine?
There are two big problems with the Met Office’s web product. Firstly, it has no memory – all forecasts are continually overwritten as they are updated. As a consequence it is impossible to judge its accuracy objectively, unless one writes one’s own capture logic. And secondly, as alluded to above, it uses the same models as it employs for its AGW predictions. This consistently and erroneously overestimates the predicted temperature up until at the latest 24 hours before. After that point, at which I understand a real person becomes involved in making the forecast, things align a lot more closely with reality.
As to any defence – its performance over the past month has been truly abject, and for the past five days it has a 100% failure rate for my part of the world – central England – predicting snow when none has fallen and vice versa.
My own outdoor max/min temp readings have become closer recently to Met Office forecasts, but still considerably below theirs as a percentage . It is still officially Autumn here in the UK and experiencing entire days in suburban outer London where the temp soars to 0 Celcius is tough on the fuel bills.
I am stunned on a daily basis by the breathless nonsense one Louise Gray has published in the Telegraph. Is she a pseudonym for a cut-and-paste service for agw? I Googled the name but apparently it is a common one in the UK and gives no info.
I listened to a local FM station for a short while this morning and got sick of the the nonsense being promulgated about globull warming by wannabe slebs – it seems any meeja person taking the Queen’s shilling has to insert x amount of AGW BS every hour. The ‘off’ button is a great comfort – I know it doesn’t do anything to correct the nonsense but it stops me throwing something hard and heavy at the radio.
@ur momisugly AndyW:
“I really don’t think the Daily Mail should be used as sources for WUWT, it has a terrible reputation for scaremongering and bad reporting aimed at it’s elderly readership, like my mother. It’s rather worrying that WUWT readers also read it.”
What a patronising and insulting attitude you show to your own mother! There is a great deal wrong with the country and you must be in a state of denial if you do not realise that. As for scaremongering, haven’t you read anything the Guardian has written about global warming?
You also wrote:
“For instance, on the page where the Daily Mail got it’s seasonal forecast it says in big letters ‘Don’t use this for seasonal forecasts’ … so they did. Go figure. ”
Of course newspapers use leaked information. All of them do, not just the Daily Mail. The Met Office still makes seasonal forecasts but since its infamous “barbecue summer” forecast it no longer makes them public. The article in the Daily Mail shows why they want to keep their seasonal forecasts secret but since British taxpayers are paying for them we have a right to know whether the Met Office is improving or getting even worse.
Last year, the MET Office prediction for a mild winter was changed the day after the Copenhagen summit finished. For most people this laid bare the politicisation of the MET office. I don’t expect the MET office to toy with the truth about this winter until Cancun concludes.
Luis says:
November 29, 2010 at 1:17 am
Meanwhile, folk in the UK should keep a close [eye?] on Natural Gas storage, present figures are considerably below what they were this time last year. Will it be this winter that we’ll have a household supply failure, beyond the usual industry supply failures?
This is one of the reasons I was out in the snow yesterday getting an extra ton of wood to keep my logburner going through an extra cold winter. Even I didn’t expect the freeze to begin so severely in November.
I also resent the high gas price, largely due to unjustifiable ‘Green’ taxes, which are not only well in excess of what the govt says mitigation will cost, but are based on a failed theory anyway.
As Alexander K points out just above, the barrage of pre-Cancun propoganda has begun in earnest here in the UK. Have a look at these truly astonishing pieces of ‘journalism’. Louise Gray of the Telegraph certainly gives the impression of cut and pasting NGO press releases. In the first exhibit, Oxfam claim those pakistan flood deaths were due to global warming. Nothing to do with engineering, an increasing population, poor planning etc. The second exhibit is a prime watermelon example. We’ve got to go back in time folks.
Cancun climate change summit: deaths from floods and drought double
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/8165784/Cancun-climate-change-summit-deaths-from-floods-and-drought-double.html
Cancun climate change summit: scientists call for rationing in developed world
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/8165769/Cancun-climate-change-summit-scientists-call-for-rationing-in-developed-world.html
carps says:
November 29, 2010 at 1:35 am (Edit)
Haha – I read this story a couple of weeks ago and placed a friendly wager in the office on the back of it that we’d have an early, cold winter. I’m ready to collect 🙂
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1321710/Siberian-swans-fly-early-winter-snow-hits-British-forecast-Friday.html
I wrote on this blog a while ago:
tallbloke says:
August 24, 2010 at 7:09 am
Someone on WUWT noted a month or so ago that swallows were leaving for points south over the English Channel, around two months earlier than usual. The old guy in the boat noted it was the earliest he’d seen them leave since 1947. Another old guy I met last year told me his family was snowed in at a farm outside Howarth, West Yorkshire during that year, in June.
Brace for another cold NH winter.
Now look here, it’s just not true that there was any such thing as the so-called Modern-evil Warm Period. That’s just a thoroughly-debunked-zombie-talking-point which has been cut and pasted from anti-science communist Stalinist -atrocity denying shill blogs paid for by Big Green. No, all the evidence now proves that what we have here is merely a Modern-evil Climate Anomaly – whilst there certainly is localised warming at a regional scale (predominantly in the high Arctic, Siberia, and other largely uninhabited areas with no thermometers), other areas are suffering from significantly lower than normal tempertatures. Whilst on average, temperatures may be slightly above historic “norms”, it cannot be said with any certainty at all that warming during the Modern-evil Climate Anomaly was either truly global, universal, or exceptional.
😉
Here’s another prediction for you –
Many scientists are going to dump their Global-Warming-Grant-Junkie chums and start revealing the scientific truths which have up to now been so shamefully ignored by the permanently-hysterical media and shouted down by the global warming Mafia.
Like this, for instance…
A top East European climatologist, who shared the Nobel Peace Prize with UN “global warming” colleagues, jumps a sinking ship as ocean data signals a cooler climate.
Dr. Lucka Kajfež Bogataj left cold clear water between herself and her former UN shipmates by declaring that rising levels of airborne carbon dioxide probably don’t cause global temperatures to rise. The news scuppers hope for a change in fortune for the beleaguered UN climate agency. Their doomed ship, the IPCC, has been sailing on an ill wind ever since it was struck by that Climategate ‘torpedo’ last year.
The Slovenian climate professor made the chilling announcement last month in an obscure foreign language journal that has only now been translated into English. The lambast came in the publication Delo Polet (18/11/2010), translated into English as, “Inconvenient Truth.” Inside Bogataj publishes a paper entitled, “The more we know, the better”.
Buried in an otherwise drab study on paleo – and proxy methods, Dr. Bogataj admitted to what skeptics have long been saying and what the ice core proxy data shows: that rises in atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide are proven to mostly, if not always, occur after rises in temperature.
Canada Free Press November 22, 2010
You also wrote:
“For instance, on the page where the Daily Mail got it’s seasonal forecast it says in big letters ‘Don’t use this for seasonal forecasts’ … so they did. Go figure. ”
Of course newspapers use leaked information. All of them do, not just the Daily Mail. The Met Office still makes seasonal forecasts but since its infamous “barbecue summer” forecast it no longer makes them public. The article in the Daily Mail shows why they want to keep their seasonal forecasts secret but since British taxpayers are paying for them we have a right to know whether the Met Office is improving or getting even worse.
——————–
If the Met Office still makes a seasonal forecast but doesn’t publish it who is it for? Why would they keep a secret seasonal forecast?
Perhaps the Met Office was also involved in faking the moon landings as well!
Professor Stephen Mobbs, director of the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at Leeds University, said the warming bias in the annual prediction was a red herring.
“All models have biases and these are very small. It may be, as the Met Office suggests, that the observations are wrong, not the model.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10625172