The UK Met Office "Winter Forecast" – fail or faux?

November 28, 2010 at 1:56 pm
and just so some of non-UK folk can see the **** we have to put up with – this is from the BBC earlier this year
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8462890.stm
But that article explains it all, Kev:

But Professor Stephen Mobbs, director of the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at Leeds University, said the warming bias in the annual prediction was a red herring.
“All models have biases and these are very small. It may be, as the Met Office suggests, that the observations are wrong, not the model.”

You see, it’s a warmer than average winter and my observation of snow lying on warm, wet, Anglesey in November is wrong. Off to spark up the barby now……

I remember before they gave up the seasonal forecasts, but after a string of blunders, there was some poor sod put up by the Met Office as cannon fodder on a news programme. Their best defence for offering forecasts, which they admitted weren’t likely to be accurate, was that it would help local authorities in planning to deal with weather conditions.
So, as long as it just meant that councils would just throw all their available money away on an eventuality which had no better chance of happening than a coin toss, that was apparently worthwhile!

Well, in sub-tropical Brisbane, Australia, I for one am eagerly awaiting the onset of summer in two days time.
Spring (1 September – 30 November) has been hideously cold, I have been unable to swim in my pool, and still pull up the doona at 4:00 a.m. Damn this Global Cooling!
See:

A recent depiction of the MET office prediction supremo in the company of UEA and RS notables.

H.R. says:
November 28, 2010 at 2:09 pm
‘I’d like to see some comments from the Brits as to what they use for an alternative source to the Met Office forecasts. I’d be curious if people elsewhere around the globe are satisfied with their source of weather forecasts.’
Accuweather in the form of Joe Bastardi. He’s convincing, honest, thorough and remarkably accurate and a lot more personable and humorous than anything inside the Met. So I’m expecting that we’ll have a chilly early winter (which is the case now) and a warmer end. I certainly hope he’s right this year again and that we aren’t frozen until March. The energy companies have already put up their fuel rates in advance of this winter (last week) and it’s going to be very expensive to stay warm.

http://www.donnerwetter.de – private service – says: cold Winter in Germany, right into February.
http://www.donnerwetter.de/news/langfrist.mv?action=show&id=14648
Don’t know about their track record, though… for short term forecasts, i use the automated stations of meteomedia:
http://wetterstationen.meteomedia.de/messnetz/eu_d.html

David, UK says: “A sadly misguided and zealous Green friend of mine told me the other day that the cold is due to the slowing down of the Gulf stream…”
And recently I was told that the Gulf oil spill would result in a slowing of the Gulf Stream and cause a cool winter for Europe.

It is kind of funny …. having so obviously been wrong so many times in a row, they attempted to abandon ‘long range weather forecasting’ …. but some how still manage to come out with “we don’t do forecasting, but trust us, its getting warmer”. And guess what … wrong again.
They are a joke.

Stephen;
Regardless of heating source, there’s a ‘trick’ you can use to cut your costs by about 40%. Get a small fan or two, and set in a corner of your largest room(s). If designed for vertical operation, point up; otherwise, use a deflector to send the air up the corner join of the walls.
The mixing of cool floor air with heated ceiling air will quickly make the room more comfortable, and means you won’t have to fill the room with warm air from the top down. A serious saving, believe me.
The “built-in” version I say in an architectural magazine was a hollow column in the corner with a small internal fan (directed up or down; doesn’t matter).
Works in the summer if you use A/C, too. Same principle. Same savings.

This is strong evidence that forecasts more than a few days out are impossible. Even taking into account known cycles like the PDO and AMO, known influences like El Nino and La Nina, Arctic Oscillations, the jet streams, volcanoes, etc. there is more than enough chaos in the atmosphere to completely ignore seasonal forecasts.
That said, it makes more sense to watch how animals are preparing for winter.
All the forecasting computer power in the world is useless until more is understood about more of the factors in play. Forecasters really ought to ignore CO2 levels and go with realistic starting conditions… ie. observation.

The Met is usually wrong. Anyone for a barbecue?

Kevin in the UK – From your link
“Professor Chris Folland from the Met Office said a re-analysis of weather science might even show that the actual temperature measurements have under-recorded recent warming – making the Met Office forecast even more accurate than it appears.”
“…re-analysis of weather science might even show that the actual temperature measurements have under-recorded recent warming…” Does that mean they could make adjustments to make the Met Office right and everything observed was wrong? Amazing!!!