In sea ice news this week, Arctic sea ice continues its inexorable climb toward the summit, to be reached sometime in March 2011. At present the ice growth is tracking just below the rate of 2007, but it should also be pointed out that according to JAXA’s AMSRE plot, we are still slightly ahead of this date last year.
The magnified view below shows just how close together all the past years are in the “choke point”:
2010 is just between 2007 and 2009 at present, and all three traces have a “knee bend” at this point, though 2010 is sharper.
Current data for JAXA:
10,31,2010,8075000 11,01,2010,8240938 11,02,2010,8403594 11,03,2010,8500000 11,04,2010,8621875 11,05,2010,8672500 11,06,2010,8693438 11,07,2010,8800781 11,08,2010,8908906 11,09,2010,8987031 11,10,2010,9056406 11,11,2010,9117656 11,12,2010,9164375 11,13,2010,9172969 11,14,2010,9183594
Over 1 million square kilometers of sea ice extent has been added in the past 15 days.
NSIDC’s plot shows 2010 compared to 2007, but has 5 day smoothing, so the knee bend is not visible.
But the NANSEN plot shows these bends clearly:
Overall, nearly the entire Arctic ocean is well filled with sea ice at this point. Only the Barents and Chukchi seas have ice free areas:
Temperature within 80°N is slightly below normal at present, thought= nothing out of the ordinary variance:
Antarctic sea ice extent remains above normal:
baffled24 says:
November 18, 2010 at 5:16 am
phlogiston says:
November 17, 2010 at 6:25 am
baffled24
Nov 16, 1:55 am
Your logic defies hmmm logic.
I’m not familiar with hmmm logic. However we have both made emininently testable predictions: you say recent Arctic ice loss is CAGW related and will continue, while I and others here say it is linked to cyclical changes such as the PDO/AMO and is now on a downturn – so recovery is in progress. So the logic of testing these opposed predictions is quite simple. Continued loss – you are right, recovery – we are. It might bump along somewhere in the middle – then we can go on arguing interminably….
Rob says: “.. A picture speaks louder than words when it comes to comparing the past with the present, and in that regard I would like you to comment on the following photo comparisons of Spitsbergens glaciers between the 20′s and 2002, courtecy of Greenpeace.
http://www.svalbard-images.com/spitsbergen/global-warming-e.php
Oops. That hurts. Where did all that ice go since the ‘warm’ 1920′s ?”
Professor Ole Humlum of Oslo University pointed out in 2002 that this is a Greenpeace hoax. Blomstrandbreen is a so-called galloping glacier, which periodically advances and retreats, regardless of the climate.
Mike Jonas says: “Professor Ole Humlum of Oslo University pointed out in 2002 that this is a Greenpeace hoax. Blomstrandbreen is a so-called galloping glacier, which periodically advances and retreats, regardless of the climate.”
Thank you Mike. I was not aware that Blomstrandbreen is a surging (popularly called “galloping”) glacier. I did research surging glaciers a bit more and found that cycle times of 5-15 years are common.
Climate4you has a nice section on Blomstrandbreen and Greenpeace’s photo comparison :
http://www.climate4you.com/ClimateAndHistory%202000-2099.htm#2010:%20Blomstrandbreen%20in%20Svalbard%20begins%20new%20surge%20advance
“In August 2002 Greenpeace launched a campain to exemplify how ongoing climate was affecting glaciers world-wide. One of the glaciers which at that time received much attention was Blomstrandbreen in NW Spitsbergen, Svalbard. Although there is little doubt that 20th century climate change since the end of the Little Ice Age in Svalbard have been unfavourable for glaciers in general, it was however pointed out in August 2002 by the present webmaster that Blomstrandbreen was not an optimal choice of glacier to demonstrate climate effects, as this particular glacier (as many glaciers in Svalbard) is a surge-type glacier. ”
Even though Blomstrandbreen has started surging again since 2009, I found no evidence anywhere that the glacier has ever been back at it’s 1920’s level.
Overall, it seems that Spitbergen’s glaciers have suffered from long term AGW effects and are not returning to 1920 splendor.
Here is the Svalbard temperature record since 1912 :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Svalbard_temperature.png
The trend seems to confirm the trend in (even surging) glacier extent, and the general warming trend in the Arctic.
fishnski says:
November 17, 2010 at 7:31 pm
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi?lang=e
fishnski says:
November 16, 2010 at 4:02 am
Forget the Bering Straits for a week or so because a storm system is pulling off the Russian coast & heading up north of Barrow sucking up warmth into the region with strong Southwest winds
CK out how the hole in ice that had been closing has gotten blown back out..
The Hole should start filling in again in a couple of days…
I’m not convinced it will fill up in a couple of days fishnski. I wouldn’t be surprised if it is still there by December 1 as there are high temp anomalies forecast for the Arctic region on the Canadian side coming up.
Andy