Catastrophic Drought Looms for Capital City of Bolivia
Historical ecology of the Andes indicates desert-like setting on the horizon
Catastrophic drought is on the near-term horizon for the capital city of Bolivia, according to new research into the historical ecology of the Andes.
If temperatures rise more than 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius (3 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit) above those of modern times, parts of Peru and Bolivia will become a desert-like setting.
The change would be disastrous for the water supply and agricultural capacity of the two million inhabitants of La Paz, Bolivia’s capital city, scientists say.
The results, derived from research funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and conducted by scientists affiliated with the Florida Institute of Technology (FIT), appear in the November issue of the journal Global Change Biology.
Climatologist Mark Bush of FIT led a research team investigating a 370,000-year record of climate and vegetation change in Andean ecosystems.
The scientists used fossilized pollen trapped in the sediments of Lake Titicaca, which sits on the border of Peru and Bolivia.
They found that during two of the last three interglacial periods, which occurred between 130,000-115,0000 years ago and 330,000-320,000 years ago, Lake Titicaca shrank by as much as 85 percent.
Adjacent shrubby grasslands were replaced by desert.
Foreshadowing: in many years, nearby Lake Poopo has dried up but for brief periods.
In each case, a steady warming occurred that caused trees to migrate upslope, just as they are doing today.
However, as the climate kept warming, the system suddenly flipped from woodland to desert.
“The evidence is clear that there was a sudden change to a much drier state,” said Bush.
Scientist Sherilyn Fritz at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln showed that during these warm episodes the algae living in Lake Titicaca shifted from freshwater species to ones tolerant of salty water. Paul Baker of Duke University identified peaks of carbonate deposition.
Both point to a sudden shallowing of the lake due to evaporative loss.
An environmental reconstruction demonstrates that with moderate warming, forests moved upslope. But as that warming continued, a climate tipping point was reached.
The system was thrown into a new, drier state that halted forest expansion.
The tipping point is caused by increased evaporative loss from Lake Titicaca.
As the lake contracts, the local climate effects attributable to a large lake–doubling of rainfall, among the most important–would be lost, says Bush.
Such tipping points have been postulated by other studies, but this work allowed the researchers to state when the system will change.
Based on the growth limits of Andean forests, they defined a tipping point that was exceeded within a 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius warming above modern conditions.
Given a rate of warming in the Peruvian Andes of about 0.3-0.5 degrees Celsius per decade, the tipping point ahead would be reached between 2040 and 2050.
“The implications would be profound for some two million people,” says Paul Filmer, program director in NSF’s Division of Earth Sciences. Severe drought, and a loss of stored water in lakes in the region, would reduce yields from important agricultural regions and threaten drinking water supplies.
The research suggests that limiting wildfires would help delay the worst effects of the drought.
-NSF-
Lake Titicaca, and parts of Peru and Bolivia, are on the cusp of a major drought.
This woodland near the lake is similar to those of past times with temperatures like today’s.
Saltbush pollen, the most common type of pollen during times of near-desert conditions.
Lake Titicaca from space. Its outline may look very different in the future.
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Mr. Courteney, Trees not only help in the preservation of rain cycles, but also hold ground water and top soil. But since nature starts 90-95% of forest fires, then there is probably a good reason for them. Like maybe, if we here in B.C. had let a few fires burn completely 15-20 years ago, we may not be seeing the destruction of those same trees by the Pine beetle and Blue Fungus…
Cassandra – this lack of logic will be with us for a few years more as we are in the midst of a major rise of Kundalini Energy (the Snake) that started about 15 years ago. Kundalini energy is all about emotions, craziness and lack of logic….
Economic Geologist – Kinda remeber something about freezing and evapouration. Maybe the 85% drop in the lakes’ level had to do with 100,000 years of being frozen solid and no precip?
nearby Lake Poopo has dried up but for brief periods
Errrrmmmm….. Wikipedia can be fun sometimes 🙂
Poopó Lake is a large saline lake located in a shallow depression in the Altiplano Mountains in Bolivia at an altitude of approximately 3,700 meters.
The permanent part of the lake body covers approximately 1,000 km².
The lake receives most of its water from the Desaguadero River which links Poopó Lake with Lake Titicaca at the north end of the Altiplano.
Since the lake lacks any major outlet and has a mean depth of no more than 3 m, the surface area varies greatly
When the water level of Titicaca Lake drops below 3,810 m, the flow of Desaguadero River is so low it can no longer compensate for the massive water losses due to evaporation from the surface of Poopó Lake. At this point, the lake volume begins to decrease. At its maximum in 1986, the lake had an area of 3,500 km².
During the years that followed, the surface area steadily decreased until 1994 when the lake disappeared completely. The time period between 1975 and 1992 is the longest period in recent times with a continuous existence of a water body.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Poopo
And of course the PDO, El Niño and La Niña have no effect on Lake Titicaca…..
The Altiplano (Spanish for high plain), in west-central South America, where the Andes are at their widest, is the most extensive area of high plateau on earth outside of Tibet. Lake Titicaca is its best known geographical feature.
The Atacama Desert, one of the driest areas on the planet, lies to the southwest of the Altiplano; to the east lies the humid Amazon Rainforest.
In extentum, the climate is cool and semi-arid to arid, with mean annual temperatures that vary from 3°C near the western mountain range to 12°C near Lake Titicaca; and total annual rainfalls that range between less than 200 mm to the south west to more than 800 mm near and over Lake Titicaca.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antiplano
So when they write:
Historical ecology of the Andes indicates desert-like setting on the horizon
What they mean is:
You can see the Atacama Desert on the horizon from the mountain tops.
I did not see a link to the paper. You can’t evaluate science claims just from a press release. Past natural climate warming may have had other features that are all that similar to what is happening now. If climate forecasts call for drying in this region then the comparison’s to past events would be more reasonable. But I’d have to see the paper itself to tell.
Another paper in a tread here talked about increased biodiversity in the Amazon during a past warming event. But that event did not coincide with increased drought as is projected for the Amazon in this warming event and so was not particularly relevant.
nearby Lake Poopo has dried up
Please be assured that the blue stuff covering Lake Poopo on Google Maps is just where someone has spilt some blue ink when the drew the map… honest.
http://maps.google.es/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=es&geocode=&q=Lago+Poopo,+Eduardo+Avaroa,+Oruro,+Bolivia&sll=-18.398836,-67.112732&sspn=1.339551,1.760559&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=Lago+Poopo,+Eduardo+Avaroa,+Oruro,+Bolivia&ll=-18.794518,-67.046814&spn=1.336442,1.760559&t=h&z=9
I found the paper. The press release is wrong. The article in the December issue, not the November issue of Global Change Biology.
Nonlinear climate change and Andean feedbacks: an imminent turning point?
1. M. B. BUSH
2. J. A. HANSELMAN
3. W. D. GOSLING
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02203.x/abstract
Abstract
A 370 000-year paleoecological record from Lake Titicaca provides a detailed record of past climate change in which interglacial periods are seen to have some elements of commonality, but also some key differences. We advance a conceptual feedback model to account for the observed changes that includes previously ignored lake effects. Today Lake Titicaca serves to warm the local environment by about 4–5 °C and also to increase rainfall. We observe that as water levels in the lake are drawn down due to warm, dry, interglacial conditions, there is a possible regional cooling as the lake effect on local microclimates diminishes. Positive feedback mechanisms promote drying until much of the lake basin is reduced to salt marsh. Consequently, the usual concept of upslope migration of species with warming would not be applicable in the Altiplano. If, as projected, the next century brings warmer and drier conditions than those of today, a tipping point appears to exist within ca. 1–2 °C of current temperatures, where the relatively benign agricultural conditions of the northern Altiplano would be replaced by inhospitable arid climates. Such a change would have profound implications for the citizens of the Bolivian capital, La Paz.
————————-
So, they do integrate current projections along with the historical data in their analysis. But I have read the paper – just the abstract.
a steady warming occurred that caused trees to migrate upslope, just as they are doing today.
Lets play: Spot the Trees around Lake Titicaca
http://www.sacredsites.com/americas/bolivia/images/lake-titicaca-500.jpg
http://www.sacredsites.com/americas/bolivia/images/isla-del-sol-02-500.jpg
http://www.sacredsites.com/americas/bolivia/images/isla-del-sol-03-500.jpg
http://www.sacredsites.com/americas/bolivia/images/temple-pachatata-500.jpg
PS: You will be forgiven if you think the trees have migrated upslope and down the other side into the Amazon Jungle.
“In each case, a steady warming occurred that caused trees to migrate upslope, just as they are doing today.”
Have they got a video of that? I’ve love to see it.
—–
Lord of the Rings 😉
“The evidence is clear that there was a sudden change to a much drier state,” said Bush.
———-
The evidence is clear, we are seeing natural selection in action.
I don’t know about tree seeds, but seeds of crop plants have to have the soil temperature high enough for seeds to sprout.
I suggest that A Mote in God’s Eye (1974) by writers Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle be read.
Crazy Eddie is in charge. It looks as if that Earthlings are quite similar to Moties when it comes to cycles of self destruction.
Tree Line: Andes, Bolivia 18°S
======================
5,200 m (17,100 ft) Western Cordillera; highest treeline in the world on the slopes of Sajama Volcano (Polylepis tarapacana)
4,100 m (13,500 ft) Eastern Cordillera; treeline is lower because of lower solar radiation (more humid climate)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tree_line
PS: If they migrate another 1,342 m upslope on the Sajama Volcano they will have reached the top… at which point they will probably start marching down the other side.
Does anyone know the definition of a climate ‘tipping point’?
Is it, like some other things in climate science, ill-defined so it can mean what I want it to mean?
Charles Higley says:
November 12, 2010 at 11:06 am
Yes, as usual, the glaringly obvious in the Ice Core record is overlooked: The interglacials are composed of 2 waves that ride constructively one on top of the other, or widely spaced, there being 2 of them. The Holocene Optimum is cooler than the previous 2, and the next 2 interglacials might resemble #’s 6 & 7, as the 2 waves pull apart. But that will be 80-90 thousand years from now. In the meantime, the next Glacial awaits. What a letdown it will be…. 10,000 years from now.
Engchamp says:
“Children these days are not educated in the true sense of the word “education”. Instead they are fed a nauseous concoction of half-beliefs, rigmarole, pseudo-science and religious poppycock. Teachers of today are hardly to be blamed, for they too have been tarred with the same ‘world order’ brush – exactly according to plan.”
And since when has that changed by any significant degree. That idea that “when we were kids we were told the truth,” is about as accurate as how far it was and now deep the snow was when we walked to school.
As to the thrust of this story keep in mind that if a lake of this size shrinks it is a result of diminished input. That has more to do with regional conditions then local ones.
I am at Titicaca (Puno) for vacations just now. It is raining and there is a lot of vegetation in Peru, and a lot of water in the lake, and it is pretty cold to be summer. I think scientists must travel a little more.
If temperatures rise more than 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius (3 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit) above those of modern times, parts of Peru and Bolivia will become a desert-like setting.
If I had a dollar for every “if” in gratuitous climate change projections, I’d be a very wealthy man. But I don’t, and it seems the “ifs” don’t happen either.
Meanwhile, the latest 72 hr, animated MM5 forecast loop shows the development of a strong Pacific High off the coast of California that appears poised to pull a surge of cold North-Canadian air down the U.S. West Coast. Note: The link included always shows the latest forecast…
Current MM5 Forecast Loop
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d1_slp+///3
Don’t mean to be nitpicky, however…
You know how it’s traditional, when talking about things happening on water, to express speed in knots, direction as starboard/port, distance as nautical miles etc?
Well, when you’re talking about things happening to forests in South America, you’re suppose to describe and quantify in FOOTBALL FIELDS. Eg: In the time you’ve taken to read this article, a FOOTBALL FIELD of Bolivian forest etc etc. Or maybe: According to models, each week one FOOTBALL FIELD of Bolivian forest will etc etc.
So get it right. If Mark the pollen-sifting climatologist wants to be taken seriously and live down that surname…it’s FOOTBALL FIELDS, okay?
“”November issue of the journal Global Change Biology.”” Yeah, right!
Seeds land where ever the vagaries of wind and animals take them. If conditions are okay the seeds germinate and grow. If conditions deteriorate the seedlings die. Well developed trees can withstand much harsher conditions than seedlings. You need decades of suitable conditions before you can say “the trees have migrated upslope”. Nature is always pushing the boundarys.
Does anyone know the definition of a climate ‘tipping point’?
Final divorce papers sent from Tipper to Al.
ABC National Radio in Aus had a similar piece of Idiocy today! some woman saying that antarctic penguins will be dead from lack of habitat = ice…
and its warming. saturated acid oceans, ozone hole not shrunk..
the whole box and dice of hype and waffle yet again.
Podcasts of the program are available. hearing is Not believin!! how anyone can make these statements!
just like the above.
It would appear that tipping points are all the rage recently! As can be seen from recent Hansen et al statements:
‘Polls indicate that the attacks have been effective in causing many members of the public to
doubt the reality or seriousness of global warming
[http://www.gallup.com/poll/126560/americans-global-warming-concerns-continue-drop.aspx].
Given this situation, the best hope may be repeated clear description of the science and
passage of sufficient time to confirm validity of the description. A problem with that
prescription is the danger that the climate system could pass tipping points that cause major
climate changes to proceed largely out of humanity’s control [Hansen et al., 2008]. Yet
continuation of careful scientific description of ongoing climate change seems to be essential for
the sake of minimizing the degree of future climate change, even while other ways are sought to
draw attention to the dangers of continued greenhouse gas increases.’
Global Surface Temperature Change
J. Hansen, R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and K. Lo
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/paper/gistemp2010_draft0803.pdf
Maybe certain groups think they need to lock us all into carbon taxes before another ‘tipping point’ (one against AGW) comes along?
I wonder what the other ways, mentioned at the end, are!
Technically there’s probably nothing wrong with the technical stuff in this report, of course I’m giving them a lot of credit they may not deserve. We really won’t know how accurate their data is for another 50 years, or so. You see, we’re just too shallow in science. Everyone’s so spread out and doing their own little special, unique thing that there just isn’t anyone who know’s enough about what anyone’s talking about to challange them. Kids don’t like math and facts and figures anymore. Heck, they don’t like anything really, not for very long.
Somewhere in time we shot ourselves in the foot and a few other critical places. We’ve lost the ability to interpret data. To draw conclusions that will stand the test of independent review. One day, someone important is going to come to the conclusion that the National Science Foundation isn’t any better than the National Education Association and we’re going to have some big changes, and the In’s will be Out on their ear. We’ll also save a bunch of money; it will be one of those survival of the fittest things –like Darwin said.
Well, how unexpected. /sarc off Especially when the Great Salt Lake & other western NA lakes reacted exactly the same — they were much larger during cold periods.
Yes, localized areas can experience more water during cold periods, in part due to less evaporation, and especially when they’re near the margins of glaciers & the associated meltwater.
JohnH says:
November 13, 2010 at 4:55 am
🙂
Bolivians can be assured that, alarmists all-too-predictable projections notwithstanding, what goes around will surely come around!
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/here_are_the_rains_that_anti_dam_melbourne_water_had_gone/