What Happened to All the Hurricanes, Al?

From Pajamas Media,

After Hurricane Katrina and the amazing season of 2005, we were supposed to see year after year of terrible hurricanes. Where are they?

Where is all the death and destruction? We were told global warming was here, and would ignite a fire under the storms, making them bigger and more frequent. Massive hurricanes like Katrina would become much more common. The world’s oceans were warming, and this would stoke the fires of these tropical monsters. But they are not here — the hurricanes are missing in action, and have been ever since 2005. The truth: there has been a dramatic decrease in the number of hurricanes in the last five years. The total energy of all hurricanes around the world has plunged since 1993 — the opposite of what was predicted. How could that be, if global warming is real and is impacting our climate today?

Let’s go back to the middle of last decade, and see what took place.

Four hurricanes made landfall on the United States during the 2004 season — all of them hit Florida. On August 13, Charley hit the southwest coast as a tiny but powerful Category 4 storm. There was massive damage over a narrow path from the Punta Gorda, Port Charlotte area all the way to Orlando. Hurricane Frances came ashore at Stuart, FL, during the night and morning hours of September 4 and 5. Even though the storm was only a Category 2, its slow forward movement inflicted many hours of pounding hurricane-force winds. A large area from Palm Beach County northward to Vero Beach and beyond was severely impacted.

Three weeks later, to the dismay of everyone on Florida’s east coast, Jeanne struck Stuart! It hit during the night of September 25. Jeanne had moved along the north coast of the Dominican Republic on September 17. By the 20th, Jeanne was moving to the northeast, away from the United States. Unbelievably — while people on the east coast of south and central Florida were recovering from Frances — Hurricane Jeanne did a complete 360 degree loop and headed back towards Florida. The Category 3 hurricane made landfall right at Stuart: two significant hurricanes in the same place within three weeks of each other!

Ivan came ashore as a Category 3 hurricane just to the west of the Florida panhandle during the night of September 15. Fortunately for residents of southern Alabama and western Florida, Ivan had diminished in strength — it had been a mighty Category 5 when it passed the western tip of Cuba on the 13th.

The hurricane season of 2004 was a horrible time for Florida. Then came 2005.

The long-term average number of named tropical storms in the Atlantic basin is 11. In 2005 there were 27. The long-term average number of hurricanes is 6. In 2005 there were a record 15.

Actually, the hurricane seasons of 1933 and 1887 were probably very similar in the number of tropical storms and hurricanes — there were no satellites to see all the storms back then, so 2005 stands as the “record” year. There were so many storms in 2005 that the hurricane center used up all the letters of the alphabet for names! Names from the Greek alphabet were recruited to fill the void. This was the first year since the naming of storms began in 1953 that this was necessary.

This was also the year of Hurricane Katrina. This massive hurricane first made landfall near Miami as a Category 1 hurricane on August 25. Katrina then entered the Gulf of Mexico and became a powerful Category 5 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 175 miles per hour, on the 28th. Katrina then moved northward, and made landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River on the morning of August 29 as a weaker but very dangerous Category 3. Over 1,800 people officially lost their lives — there were probably many more that were never found or counted — and the broad area of destruction made this one of the worst natural disasters in American history.

Read the rest of the story here.

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Mark S
October 19, 2010 9:35 pm

This is a pretty weak post. After asking the question (and rightly so):
“there has been a dramatic decrease in the number of hurricanes in the last five years…How could that be, if global warming is real and is impacting our climate today?”
All we get for a discussion on the topic is a recap of the 2004 and 2005 seasons. Can’t you do better? How about some information on the linkage between the warming oceans and hurricane formation (or lack thereof)?
Ryan Maue: the answer is “natural variability”. When you publish papers at the top of the cycle or oscillation, eventually all sh*t will roll downhill — to put it scientifically. We are at record lows globally right now: this means, eventually we will go back up, maybe next year, maybe in 2 or 3 years. But, it will occur and it will have little to do with the “warming planet”.

Kath
October 19, 2010 9:38 pm

I was under the impression that the destructiveness of Katrina was a consequence of poor planning and levee construction.

crosspatch
October 19, 2010 10:12 pm

“What Happened to All the Hurricanes”
They are “in the pipeline”. Just kidding. Actually, I have them right here in a little jar in my kitchen. When the mood strikes me, I just open the jar a little bit until one spins out and then quickly close it up again. Lately things have been going pretty well and I just haven’t been in the mood to let one rip, so to speak. 2005 was a bad year. Sorry about that.

rc
October 19, 2010 10:33 pm

Mark S the story continues if you follow the link provided.

Bob Diaz
October 19, 2010 10:34 pm

So when do you think ABC, NBC, CBS, and CNN will cover this issue?
😉

rbateman
October 19, 2010 10:35 pm

What happened to all the Global Warming induced hurricanes?
GW ran out of gas, and Al goofed. You can play all the games with satellite data and station adjustments, but you cannot fake a hurricane (you can make a movie or two, like 2012). Actually, the oceans are rather spent when it comes to giving up heat, relegated to shoving what’s left of the warm waters over to the Phillipines/Indonesia and up towards Greenland/Arctic. So, nature has called in the Tow Truck to put the Oceans back on the charger.

chopbox
October 19, 2010 10:35 pm

It’s a little much to be saying that AGW is wrong because their predictions about hurricanes haven’t panned out. That prediction was predicated on two factors: first, that continued warming of the sea surface would result in more (and higher intensity) hurricanes, and two, that there would be continued warming to drive this first factor.
We are now ten years in and we don’t see much in the way of warming. This may be because AGW is incorrect, or it may be that this is some short-term aberration, etc etc. (We do know from Climategate emails that even Team members like Kevin Trenberth are wringing their hands about this.) But because global warming has flatlined, we cannot hold those hurricane predictions against the people who made them. It may indeed be that global warming would cause increased hurricane activiity; if so, we can’t expect to see this increased activity in a time when the globe is not warming.

MACK1
October 19, 2010 10:50 pm

Mark S:
Here are the graphical data – a 30 year low:
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/global_running_ace.jpg
Precisely the opposite of the gloomy predictions, and show that economic analyses using those predictions to advocate CO2 emission reduction, are fundamentally flawed.
Furthermore, Pacific Islands are growing, not sinking, so another reason for action disappears….
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20627633.700-shapeshifting-islands-defy-sealevel-rise.html
And the scare stories about infectious diseases have been completely refuted:
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200506/ldselect/ldeconaf/12/12we21.htm
Things are looking pathetically weak for the climate change activists….

wayne
October 19, 2010 11:07 pm

rbateman says:
October 19, 2010 at 10:35 pm
“you cannot fake a hurricane”

Yes you can, Al Gore did it right on the cover of his book…
photoshop style!! (but, that’s just one of his
little lies)

Editor
October 19, 2010 11:17 pm

The number of hurricanes is at a record low as well, 71 during the past 2-years, with the average being 96 globally (sigma=11).
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/
Submitted for Publication, along with the reason why global hurricane activity has decreased to such low levels…

Ike
October 20, 2010 12:02 am

“there has been a dramatic decrease in the number of hurricanes”
huh? whats so dramatic about this fact???

Paul Pierett
October 20, 2010 12:10 am

Too much Jibber-Jabber.
Really a poor analysis of this topic. Named storm activity depends on sunspot activity and the accumulated factors of sunspot activity influence over a century.
During the weaker cycles of the first 1900s, averages storms were 7 to 8 a year with a range of 1 to 15.
During the last sunspot cycle, that number of named storms surpassed any cycle known to man.
As for ACE measurement, it has its flaws. During the peak period of cycle ACE is more reflective of storm ability to hit our mainland.
During the starts and stops of a cycle, ACE reflects the ability of land mass to influence hurricanes.
Whatever, there is a significant correlation between sunspot activity and the length of a season, the number of named storms and ACE.
Paul Pierett
Some of my research is found here.
http://www.nationalforestlawblog.com/newsletters.htm
Go to October 2009
http://www.nationalforestlawblog.com/Pierett%20Cover.pdf
http://www.nationalforestlawblog.com/Global%20Warming%20By%20Paul%20Pierett.pdf
History charts start on page 27, of “Low Sunspot…”
A lot of charts throughout both papers.
http://www.nationalforestlawblog.com/Atlantic%20Storm%20Correlation%20To%20Sunspot%20Activity.pdf

Henry
October 20, 2010 12:48 am

Apparently surface winds are slowing perhaps due to “afforestation and climate change”

Bryan
October 20, 2010 12:54 am

My last post seemed to vanish suddenly; so just in case; omit if it repeats.
Hansen slashes revenue guidance
Wed 20 Oct 2010
Hansen Transmissions International the wind turbine gearbox designer, has warned that shipments in the second half of its financial year are likely to be lower than previously anticipated.

October 20, 2010 12:56 am

OI know where they went. The Goreacle stuck them all on the cover of his book.

Grumbler
October 20, 2010 1:05 am

“chopbox says:
October 19, 2010 at 10:35 pm
It’s a little much to be saying that AGW is wrong because their predictions about hurricanes haven’t panned out. ”
No falsifiability? Not science.
As sceptics this is exacty our point. Let us know when something is falsifiable and maybe we’ll be persuaded.

George Lawson
October 20, 2010 1:11 am

With his superhuman knowledge of what causes hurricanes, I wonder whether Al. Gore could apply his unique scientific knowledge of hurricanes to tell us whether it was global warming that caused the catastrophic category 4 and 5 hurricanes such as those of 1900, 1928 and 1992. If it wasn’t AGW that caused them in those days I’m sure he must know what scientific phenomenon caused them. His supreme knowledge of these things must be of untold benefit to us all. Surely he would be prepared to share that knowledge for a small honorarium of say $500,000.

John Marshall
October 20, 2010 1:15 am

I have no doubt that warming a system will increase the energy of that system. Perhaps the lack of any serious storm is indicative of a cooling system as the real data shows.

Grumbler
October 20, 2010 1:16 am

rbateman says:
October 19, 2010 at 10:35 pm
“you cannot fake a hurricane”
You can – you just change the definition.

Stephen Brown
October 20, 2010 1:35 am

Typhoon Megi is causing problems in Asia. Ten killed in the Philippines, winds of 160mph and torrential rain. The authorities in Viet Nam and in Southern China have already evacuated thousands. Have a look at the article posted below, look at the size of Megi and ask “Just how much heat is it pumping up, out and away?”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1321772/Typhoon-Megi-batters-southeast-Asia-10-killed-162mph-winds.html
But, despite the size of Megi, this year has been a very quiet one for typhoons.

Editor
October 20, 2010 1:58 am

Looking back through historical evidence most of the great storms seem to happen in cool periods not warm ones.
tonyb

Orkneygal
October 20, 2010 2:33 am

I’m looking for the missing Tropical Troposheric Hot Spot?
Anyone seen it recently?

October 20, 2010 2:44 am

Orkneygal says:
October 20, 2010 at 2:33 am
“I’m looking for the missing Tropical Troposheric Hot Spot?
Anyone seen it recently?”
It’s stuck in the models and can’t get out.

October 20, 2010 2:52 am

Very strange post. Especially since it HAS been a very active season. Here is a summary so far:
http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/hurricane-season-2010-scorecard_2010-08-16

Roger Knights
October 20, 2010 2:57 am

I think there should be a credit at the top of this thread to the author, Art Horn, not just to the website, Pajamas Media.

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