From techno-science.net This tip came in on our tip & notes page, and at first I was quite surprised because I could not see a possible mechanism for it. Then as I read the translation (from French) it started to make more sense. I’ll point out my friend Jim Goodridge published an essay on WUWT about correlation of the PDO and rainfall with LOD: California Climate, PDO, LOD, and Sunspot Departure
Here’s the graph from the current article of interest:
And here’s some excerpts describing possible mechanisms:
Some authors, notably Bourget et al (1992), had begun to reveal correlations between solar activity and the length of day, and more recently, Abarca del Rio et al (2003) and Winkelnkemper (2008) in his thesis noted that the amplitude of the component semi-annual (6 months period) of the length of day and atmospheric angular momentum were anti-correlated with changes in the same period of the ” solar constant (the solar constant expresses the amount of solar energy (actually a lighting power) which would be one …) “.
What could be the link between certain changes in day length, the zonal winds and solar activity? To help answer this question, The Mouël and colleagues analyzed a series of 48 years (from 1962 to 2009) of daily measurements of the length of day, the service provided by the International Earth Rotation and systems reference located at the Observatoire de Paris. They have extracted the component of period 6 months and showed significant variations in the amplitude of this component, about 30%, they compared the one hand the number of sunspots (the Wolf number, a traditional indicator of solar activity measured for several centuries) and also the flux of galactic cosmic ray.
The authors show a good correlation between these three parameters, more precisely (Figure), it is the evolution of cosmic rays and the amplitude of the semi-annual day length are correlated (correlation coefficient the order of 0.7), and are in phase. The correlation is improved when we remove the curve (In geometry, the word curve or curved line designates certain subsets of the plan, the usual space. ,…) example of day length linear trend which could be related to phenomena occurring in the nucleus. It is established also that variations in cosmic rays are out of phase with sunspots and shifted about a year (this is attributed to the mechanism of modulation of galactic cosmic rays by the solar wind (solar wind is a stream plasma consisting essentially of ions and electrons are ejected from the high …) and its magnetic field).
How the speed of rotation of the Earth can it be sensitive to the modulation of cosmic rays?
The answer is in the system of winds. Those who contribute most to the seasonal variations of angular momentum are the winds of relatively low altitude (Altitude is the vertical elevation of a place or object relative to a baseline.) below 30km . Taking an average over a year (A year is a unit expressing the duration of time between two occurrences of an event linked to the revolution …), the difference between radiation (Radiation is energy transfer under form of waves or particles, which can occur by radiation …) received from the Sun ((weight percent)) and one that is emitted by the Earth outward into the great length of wave (A wave is the propagation of a disturbance occurring on its passage a reversible variation of properties …) (IR) is positive towards the equator and negative beyond 40 degrees latitude (Latitude is an angular value, expression north-south position of a point on Earth (or another …).
This latitude gradient must be balanced by a flow of energy (in the common sense energy means anything that allows a work, making the heat, …) from the equator to the poles: the transportation (transport, from the Latin trans, beyond, and portare wearing is wearing something, or someone one, a place …) is provided by the Southern movements (that is to say along the geographic meridians) of the atmosphere, averaged in longitude (Longitude is an angular value, expressing the position east-west from a point on Earth (or another …), and eddies. The zonal winds are the result of this transport because of conservation of angular momentum: going to the poles is approached the axis of rotation of the Earth and changes in this distance must be compensated by changes in speed. The seasonal variations in insolation lead to variations of the same period of the carriage along the meridians and, from there, the mean zonal winds.
…
There is another route by which clouds can be affected: the atmosphere is indeed penetrated by a vertical electric current of a few nano-Ampere per square meter (the meter (the meter (symbol m, the Greek metron, measure) is the basic unit of length in the International System. … It is defined) square (a square is a regular polygon with four sides is a quadrilateral that is both a rectangle (it a. ..) ( symbol m) is the unit area of the international system.), which fluctuates with the ionospheric currents and therefore the solar activity. These vertical currents electrically charged clouds and, again, change their micro-physical state. Both mechanisms can indeed co-exist. What characterizes them is that those variations induced by solar activity is measured in tenths of a percent and not in parts per thousand. That’s where the important niche amplification (We are talking about force amplifier for a whole range of systems that amplify the efforts: mechanics ,…) of the phenomenon.
Thus, the Earth (specifically the mantle), the rotation is accelerated or slowed according to the fluctuations of cosmic rays under the influence of solar activity through the zonal winds, provide a wonderful device integration variations in atmospheric angular momentum and zonal wind circulation that it is difficult to measure directly.
Full article and translation here
h/t to WUWT reader Steward
Pour tenter de répondre à cette question, Le Mouël et ses collègues ont analysé une série de 48 années (de 1962 à 2009) de mesures journalières de la longueur du jour, fournies par le service international de la rotation de la Terre et des systèmes de référence situé à l’Observatoire de Paris. To help answer this question, The Mouël and colleagues analyzed a series of 48 years (from 1962 to 2009) of daily measurements of the length of day, the service provided by the International Earth Rotation and systems reference located at the Observatoire de Paris. Ils en ont extrait la composante de période 6 mois et ont mis en évidence de fortes variations de l’amplitude de cette composante, de l’ordre de 30%, qu’ils ont comparé d’une part au nombre de taches solaires (le nombre de Wolf, un indicateur traditionnel de l’activité solaire mesuré depuis plusieurs siècles) et d’autre part au flux de rayon cosmiques galactiques. They have extracted the component of period 6 months and showed significant variations in the amplitude of this component, about 30%, they compared the one hand the number of sunspots (the Wolf number, a traditional indicator of solar activity measured for several centuries) and also the flux of galactic cosmic ray.
Les auteurs mettent en évidence une bonne corrélation entre ces trois paramètres, plus précisément (Figure), ce sont les évolutions des rayons cosmiques et de l’amplitude de la composante semi-annuelle de la longueur du jour qui sont corrélées (coefficient de corrélation de l’ordre de 0,7), et qui sont en phase. The authors show a good correlation between these three parameters, more precisely (Figure), it is the evolution of cosmic rays and the amplitude of the semi-annual day length are correlated (correlation coefficient the order of 0.7), and are in phase. La corrélation est améliorée quand on retire à la courbe de la longueur du jour une tendance linéaire, qui pourrait être liée à des phénomènes se produisant dans le noyau. The correlation is improved when we remove the curve (In geometry, the word curve or curved line designates certain subsets of the plan, the usual space. ,…) example of day length linear trend which could be related to phenomena occurring in the nucleus. Il est établi par ailleurs que les variations des rayons cosmiques sont en opposition de phase avec les taches solaires et décalées d’environ un an (ceci est attribué au mécanisme de modulation des rayons cosmiques galactiques par le vent solaire et son champ magnétique). It is established also that variations in cosmic rays are out of phase with sunspots and shifted about a year (this is attributed to the mechanism of modulation of galactic cosmic rays by the solar wind (solar wind is a stream plasma consisting essentially of ions and electrons are ejected from the high …) and its magnetic field).
Comment la vitesse de rotation de la Terre peut-elle donc être sensible à la modulation des rayons cosmiques ? How the speed of rotation of the Earth can it be sensitive to the modulation of cosmic rays?
La réponse est dans le système des vents. The answer is in the system of winds. Ceux qui contribuent le plus aux variations saisonnières du moment angulaire sont les vents de relativement basse altitude , en dessous de 30km. Those who contribute most to the seasonal variations of angular momentum are the winds of relatively low altitude (Altitude is the vertical elevation of a place or object relative to a baseline.) below 30km . Prise en moyenne sur une année , la différence entre le rayonnement reçu du Soleil et celui qui est réémis par la Terre vers l’extérieur dans les grandes longueur d’ onde (infra-rouge) est positif vers l’équateur et négatif au delà de 40° de latitude . Ce gradient en latitude doit être équilibré par un flux d’ énergie de l’équateur vers les pôles: ce transport est assuré par les mouvements méridionaux (c’est-à-dire le long des méridiens géographiques) de l’atmosphère, moyennés en longitude , et les tourbillons. Les vents zonaux sont la conséquence de ce transport à cause de la conservation du moment angulaire: en allant vers les pôles on se rapproche de l’axe de rotation de la Terre et les changements de cette distance doivent être compensés par des changements de la vitesse. Les variations saisonnières d’insolation entraînent des variations de même période du transport le long des méridiens et, partant de là, de la moyenne des vents zonaux. Taking an average over a year (A year is a unit expressing the duration of time between two occurrences of an event linked to the revolution …), the difference between radiation (Radiation is energy transfer under form of waves or particles, which can occur by radiation …) received from the Sun ((weight percent)) and one that is emitted by the Earth outward into the great length of wave (A wave is the propagation of a disturbance occurring on its passage a reversible variation of properties …) (IR) is positive towards the equator and negative beyond 40 degrees latitude (Latitude is an angular value, expression north-south position of a point on Earth (or another …). This latitude gradient must be balanced by a flow of energy (in the common sense energy means anything that allows a work, making the heat, …) from the equator to the poles: the transportation (transport, from the Latin trans, beyond, and portare wearing is wearing something, or someone one, a place …) is provided by the Southern movements (that is to say along the geographic meridians) of the atmosphere, averaged in longitude (Longitude is an angular value, expressing the position east-west from a point on Earth (or another …), and eddies. The zonal winds are the result of this transport because of conservation of angular momentum: going to the poles is approached the axis of rotation of the Earth and changes in this distance must be compensated by changes in speed. The seasonal variations in insolation lead to variations of the same period of the carriage along the meridians and, from there, the mean zonal winds.
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Chris Clark says:
October 4, 2010 at 1:01 pm
You got it buddy!:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/38598073/Unified-Field
vukcevic says:
October 4, 2010 at 1:02 pm
Is it decreasing along with Sun’s polar fields?
A paper maybe worth looking at is “Civil Engineering 163 May 2010 Pages 74-80 Paper 09-00041” which shows a correlation between Sunspot Number and the level of Lake Victoria; records from 1896 – 2005, but intriguingly the correlation was lost between 1930 and 1970. I’ve since seen a paper (for which I’ve lost the citation) claiming correlation between solar activity and flow in the Nile. We won’t really have a full understanding of climate variability until these kind of observations can also be slotted in.
JohnH says:
October 4, 2010 at 1:56 pm
There are several papers by Shahinaz Yousef on the issue:
http://www.virtualacademia.com/pdf/cli222_234.pdf
JohnH says:
October 4, 2010 at 1:56 pm
Here it is:
THE SHARP RISE OF LAKE VICTORIA, A POSITIVE INDICATOR TO SOLAR WOLF-GLEISSBERG CYCLES TURNING POINTS
Shahinaz M. Yousef & Morsi Amer
Astronomy & Meteorology Dept., Faculty of Science ,Cairo University
ABSTRACT
The Sun experiences long range cycles of the order (80-120) years known as the Wolf – Gleissberg cycles. 1877-1878 marks the end of one of those cycles and the beginning of a series of three low activity 12 years solar cycles. 1878 was also characterized by a sharp rise in Lake Victoria level followed by continuous drop till 1890. Later on, the lake level rose and fall in sympathy with solar cycles till the end of the low activity period around 1922 when such correlation ceased to exist.
The maximum of the following Wolf – Gleissberg cycle occurred around 1958, followed by another ~2.5 meters sharp rise in lake Victoria level in the early sixties.
Again 1997 marked the end of the past Wolf–Gleissberg cycle and the beginning of a new era of lower activity solar cycles. As a consequence, the level of Lake Victoria rose sharply by 1.6 meters and at present dropping down is in progress. Such drop is expected to last up till the end of the present 12 year solar cycle in the same fashion as in the 1887 case, leading to drought conditions around 2009±2-3 years.
It seems a few people don’t realise that the atmosphere has quite enough mass for wind patterns to have an effect on the rotation rate, ie, LOD. I worked for many years in an organisation which supplied date to the Bureau Internatianale d l’Heure in Paris, on both the instantaneous LOD and the variation of Latitude (polar wandering). Earth has quite a few wobbles of various kinds from a number of sources!
JohnH says:
October 4, 2010 at 1:56 pm
…………….
I had some correspondence from prof. Alexander before he published his work. Here is an extract:
Memo 12/07, 27 March 2007
Dear Mr Vukcevic
……..
I have determined the following with a very high level of confidence.
1.There is a 21-year (20.8) statistically significant periodicity in the hydrometeorological data based on a very large and comprehensive database routinely published by the responsible authorities.
2.But there is no 11-year (10.4) periodicity.
3.The reason is obvious. Alternating sub-periods have different numerical characteristics. This was noted and recoded in biblical times and on many occasions here in South Africa during the past more than 100 years.
4.These are the alternating wet (flood) and dry (drought) cycles.
5.Both wet and dry cycles begin with sudden changes from sequences of drought years to successions of up to about five years of abnormally high rainfall and floods.
6.These sudden changes are closely but not precisely, synchronous with sunspot minima.
7.A very good example is that the largest floods in several of our major coastal rivers occurred in 1856. These floods together with the largest flood in the Loire River at Orleans in France and the sunspot minimum all occurred within months of each other. Several of our rivers experienced their maximum floods in the mid-1800s.
8.I found the top graph in the Wikipedia article interesting in this connection as it shows a large period of magnetic activity coincident with these floods. This is repeated again from about 1960 to the end of the century with signs of it dying off. Is this confirmation that global cooling is around the corner?
9.Six of us have just submitted a paper for publication that we believe breaks new ground on the solar linkage. If all goes well it should be published before the end of June.
10.There are still some gaps that need to be filled and we are working on them. I have therefore copied this email to my colleagues as they may wish to exchange views with you.
11.Despite a diligent search, I was unable to find any evidence of the postulated consequences of sustained global warming in the hydrometeorological data.
Kind regards and thanks again,
Will
His work was published 3 months later in the JOURNAL OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN INSTITUTION OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
http://nzclimatescience.net/images/PDFs/alexander2707.pdf
Subsequently I was contacted by
P. J. Mason, Black & Veatch Ltd, UK; who also dealt with the subject, forwarding a pdf attachment, published in : Hydropower & Dams Issue Three, 2006.
which I could email if of interest.
JohnH says:
re my post above (October 4, 2010 at 2:45 pm)
In prof. Alexander email in point 8. he refers to ‘top graph in the Wikipedia’, Hale cycle he found
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hale-cycle.gif
I uploaded some months earlier (rectified version of http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/solar-formula.gif.
The article since has been deleted by a ‘certain solar science zealot’, but graph is still there.
BTW: Have you ever wondered to what cycle refers this: “The Sun experiences long range cycles of the order (80-120) years known as the Wolf – Gleissberg cycles”
The answer is obvious: To human life duration.
As the Iphone has an acceleration sensor which enables it the display´s image to rotate at will, it can run an APP to display the acceleration of gravity, which, in special for people living in earthquakes zones, would give them a few minutes warning when such a geological event is coming, as gravity acceleration decreases in such cases.
There are several apps which can be downloaded with this purpose.
Fascinating. Clearly LOD does correlate with solar cycles. Some time I hope to read up more.
I would like to hear Leif’s comment on this basic evidence of correlation.
“It seems also that the usual suspects are here singing their favorite tunes.”
One thing I learned a long time ago was that science isn’t a democracy. It isn’t even a republic. It doesn’t care what I think or what you think, it just is. If you can line up 1000 people who believe something is so and only 1 who believes it isn’t so, it will still be what it really is, what we think it is notwithstanding.
I also notice people jump in with their pet explanation for this or that or the other. It almost seems as if they believe that if they can simply become the majority view, then it makes their view the reality. It gets tiresome.
John Daly has LOD (expressed as excess day length in ms) from 1860 here and from 1623 here.
Does the correlation extend back that far ?
I suggest checking out the recently launched website “Solar Chord Discovery” : http://www.solarchords.com
It was literally just launched – days ago. I’ve spotted a few errors, but overall the information is clear.
Mr. Bailey calculated the changing Earth-Sun distance (the “solar chord”) and found that periods of high variability occur when the sun’s path around the solar system barycenter (SSB) enters certain patterns (primarily caused by the motions of the gas giants Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune). The sun’s motion in relation to the SSB (giving us solar angular momentum) also correlates to sunspot activity, but Mr. Bailey notes that it is the variable Earth-Sun distance, not the sunspots, that has the large weather changing (and over time, climate changing) affect.
The NASA link provided by anna v suggests,
The length of the day–how fast or slow the Earth rotates–depends on how Earth’s mass is distributed. Its mass includes the atmosphere, the solid Earth and its fluid core.. No water? anything external like the 38mm movement of the moon away from the earth?. It has been suggested that earthquakes and dam building can redistribute mass.
Jerry says:
October 4, 2010 at 2:42 am
I simply ask if the rotational period of the earth affects solar activity, or if solar activity affects the rotation of the earth.
That there is correlation is one thing, causation is quite another, and to my mind, the bigger guy always wins – i.e. the Sun is the driving factor
It’s time people stopped thinking in terms of simple chains of cause and effect and started considering the solar system as, well, a system. Feedback control loops operate by having a response to an input which modulates the output from the ‘main driver’.
The empirical evidence is being gathered.
Enneagram says:
October 4, 2010 at 10:01 am
ref:
simpleseekeraftertruth says: October 4, 2010 at 9:44 am
“As you would accept, that is only a theory. Question remains open unless phenomena are understood as in a single field theory.”
Would that be a single field theory unifying magnetism & gravity? If so, I have to admit that I can only believe that which I understand. You will have to put me down as a failure on that one;-]
The moon also causes tides in the atmosphere (of about a month duration):
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/09/20/moon-causes-monthly-atmospheric-tides/
which also leads to ideas of a mechanism for other bodies to raise similar tides in the sun, which could modulate nuclear output…
Oh, and one distraction: When I first started looking at this (after Ian Wilson presented on it) I got pulled into the idea of “Spin Orbit Coupling”. This works at the atomic level, so seems to me it ought to function at the macro level too; yet it simply gets ignored. I have no idea if it is ignored because it’s a pain to do the math or if it is just because some (unclear to me) physics causes it to be constrained to atomic scale events…
But if it can work at the macro level, some of the orbital shifts would translate into minor spin changes.
Yeah, I know, yet another goblin to chase… But it just bugs me when there is a clear bit of law of physics and for no clear reason it gets ignored at a different scale of event. I like my physics to stay constant… so I guess I have no future in quantum mechanics…
simpleseekeraftertruth says:
October 5, 2010 at 3:22 am
It is so simple that we, so accustumed to complexities, we just reject it.
Try it again:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/38598073/Unified-Field
Ralph says:
October 4, 2010 at 1:02 pm
“And frankly, I cannot see how winds can be responsible for the variation in day-length.”
It’s quite simple. If (part of) the atmosphere is moving East-West or West-East around the globe, it has an angular momentum ~mvR. If the velocity (or moving air mass) changes, so does the angular momentum. But since the angular momentum of the Earth as a whole (including the atmosphere) doesn’t change (on this time scale), the angular momentum of the body of the Earth has to change in the opposite direction. If the wind speeds up, the rotation of the body slows down, and vice versa. The mass of the atmosphere is of order one millionth the mass of the Earth, jet stream and trade wind speeds of order one tenth the speed of planetary rotation, so expect an impact on the length of day up to ~1e-7 x 1e5 s ~ 10ms. Not all of the atmosphere is continually charging round the lines of latitude at full speed, so the net effect and seasonal variations will be substantially smaller, as observed.
“Coriolis is only a notional force, not a real force, as it is the Earth that moves, not the wind.”
Coriolis and centrifugal forces are real forces; they are called “fictional” not because they are unreal, but because they are created by rotating or non-inertial frames of reference. Gravity is another “fictional” force. If you think it’s not real I invite you to jump off a cliff and tell me if you still think so after hitting the bottom! Ultimately, fact and fiction come from the same root – the Latin for “do” or “make”.
tallbloke says:
October 5, 2010 at 12:07 am
re: the Sun is the driving factor
“It’s time people stopped thinking in terms of simple chains of cause and effect and started considering the solar system as, well, a system. Feedback control loops operate by having a response to an input which modulates the output from the ‘main driver’.”
But the feedback from the rest of the solar system to the sun is very, very weak. The tidal effects are minuscule and any electromagnetic effects would have to propagate back upstream against a supersonic flow; not absolutely impossible, but very very difficult (requiring, eg., high energy collimated jets, such as we observe in quasars and black hole accretion disks, but do not observe coming from the planets).
I posted a couple of months ago on LOD vs. mass distribution. I am curious why my graph of amplitude change from a couple of years ago looks nothing like what is posted above. http://i36.tinypic.com/30d88dh.jpg
Also LOD is down 22 seconds from 1973. http://www.iris.washington.edu/data/problem/2006/timing_issue.htm
vukcevic says:
October 4, 2010 at 2:41 am
“Here as an alternative view: …”
Do you understand the skin effect and why that means that the Earth’s magnetic core cannot be significantly affected by external changes in the magnetosphere on this time scale? If you think you have an explanation that gets around this rather fundamental limitation by all means elucidate us; but please don’t just ignore the problem or pretend it doesn’t exist or doesn’t matter.
Steve says: October 4, 2010 at 11:10 pm
Wow, hats off gentlemen, this man has a true-Nobel-prizewinner quality, like Svensmark, but building on Landscheidt and Rhodes Fairbridge and going further, with exquisite clarity. Read his science pages listed here. Enjoy the orrery he recommends. Tallbloke I strongly advise you to get the book and do a review.