After a false start that fooled even the experts, it appears that sea ice has turned the corner, for real this time. NSIDC issued an update this week:
Update: 21 September 2010
Although ice extent appeared to reach a minimum on September 10, rising afterwards for three straight days, it has subsequently declined even further. NSIDC scientists are closely monitoring the ice extent and will provide another update on the data, as conditions develop.
Our season-end announcement in October will provide the final numbers for the minimum extent, as well as the monthly data for September, which scientists use for establishing long-term trends.
This is confirmed by the other sources:
What is of renewed interest though is what is going on in Antarctica:
While the Antarctic Ice never dipped below normal, the dip itself illustrates what I alluded to in Sea Ice News #22:
While the vagaries of wind and weather can still produce an about-face…
And just like the dip in the Arctic, the dip in the Antarctic is weather related, and is now rebounding with a change in weather.The sea ice on the edge of the Antarctic continent can be affected by winds and weather patterns in the same way as Arctic ice.
Speaking of weather, according to DMI the temperature in the Arctic continues to plummet:
Though, we may see some temperature rebound after the first or second week of October, as the Arctic Oscillation ensemble forecast calls for the AO to go positive then:
More on the impact of the AO in this graphic here (PDF)
And as we see in this CT comparison, the ice is refreezing rather quickly in the month of September:
Click to enlarge. Notice how the areas of lower concentration have disappeared.
Later this week, I’ll do a recap on who forecasted what and how the final tally looked.