Hot summer after a cold winter
Joe D’Aleo, ICECAP
Washington DC and many cities of the east and south had a warm to record warm summer (while parts of the west had a cold to record cold) with the average for the nation the 4th warmest on record. For Washington, it broke many of the records set in 1980 and 1988. It tied with the number of 90F days set in 1988 and fell just 12 days short of the number of 90F days for the year (a few additional still possible) set in 1980.
A hot summer is very typical when a strong La Nina follows a strong El Nino winter (1999, 1988, 1966) or when record strong arctic blocking in winter fades (1977). This past winter we saw a record for negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) beating out 1976/77 and 1965/66
The summer was 2.2F above normal for the nation, ranking it as fourth warmest. See map:
That matches how much last winter the US averaged below normal (2.2F). Last winter was coldest in the south and southeast (in a few spots, coldest ever). Colder to the south of DC but recall DC and surroundings had a record seasonal snowfall.
Besides 1980, 1988, other hot summers included 1881, where this record from “Andy” out of the Naval Observatory shows an amazing summer following a very cold January/winter. He writes:
I am attaching a rather rare document, Washington DC weather records for the year 1881 taken at the Naval Observatory.
I have highlighted an incredible late summer, early autumn heat wave that got started on August 20th and did not really end until October 4th. There has never been anything remotely approaching the intensity and duration of this heat wave for so late in the year in modern times.
An unbelievable temperature of 108.5 was recorded on the very late date of September 7th! Also the average September average high temperature of 90.8 dwarfs anything you can find in recent years. One could argue that the site or thermometer might reflect a warm bias. Examining the data, June was actually quite cool and July was about average. And back then, no one was pushing an agenda!
The summer this year was characterized by hot days with high humidities and thus very warm nights. Nighttime lows were especially above the normal. Ironically many of the same areas with warmth this summer had very cool summers the last two years with a record/near record cold July in 2009.
That was consistent with a summer after a La Nina winter, one with low solar and high latitude volcanic activity. Last summer and last winter we were told that was weather not climate. This makes any claims that a hot summer this year is indicative of a warming world disingenuous. With La Nina coming on, look for a cool summer again next year. With a negative PDO look for colder years ahead. This will accelerate when the Atlantic cools. The active hurricane season will remove some of the heat built up in the Atlantic by the El Nino suppressed activity last year and reduced winds (mixing) and increased sunshine with a suppressed jet stream, weakened suppressed subtropical high pressure due to record blocking this past winter.
What are we worried about?
We have entered a solar minimum. We should be tracking what we see and know.
Let’s look at our Atlantic hurricane season. Powerful hurricanes turned away from the US. WHY? La Ninos ??? Maybe, Lack of high atmosphere humidity? Maybe!!! We yet to put that piece in the puzzle.
Our winters are growing severe. How does an Ice Age or a mini Ice Age start?
Cold winters and droughts so far. Anyone monitoring droughts? The US is getting socked with droughts, the Amazon lowest in 47 years, Russia and Ukraine can sell off any grain due to droughts and fires.
I’ve been watching that in Florida for 15 years, Low sunspot activity causes drought and then the fires come. I expect some big ones in the coming years here in Florida.
I warned the Governor and various agencies here in Florida of what is coming time and time again. What a waste of time. They still let people irrigate their lawns. Lakes are low. Morons??? No, politicians! Is that the same thing? “Hey Bill, when are you going to let up and let me water my lawn?” said the rich campaign contributor.
By winter they will be up at Four Corners getting beat up by businesses about why they can’t get more water. Too much tourism. The Ecology of Florida has a sink hole in it between Orlando and Miami.
Anyone monitoring elderly and poor people deaths? England and Ireland are. Not pretty.
They have lost a lot due to winters, not summers.
As I have told people who hear over and over again we are on the first leg of the roller coaster in our first modern technology solar minimum. We have tipped the top of the first hill and we don’t know where the bottom is at.
According to this scientist from Russia we are on the edge of another mini- ice age or worst. http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=155225
The morons in the Southern Hemisphere are painting rocks white and trying to stop mining to save their glaciers.
We have enough politicians in Florida that if they lived in South America, they would order mining to stop and to paint more Rocks.
We are surrounded by idiots. We have a national leaders who want to breach Dams, paint our roofs white and shut down coal burning plants. “Oh!, we will just build an atomic plant or two. We just issued the permit the other day. After ten years of law suits, we should get started in a decade or two.”. Shoot, By then, Lord only knows what will be left.
So, if you are worried about global warming, count your last few blessings.
See ya. Signing off for a while, maybe after Christmas I will sign on again. Nothing Knew here.
It is time to get back to my studies.
Paul
Bill H says:
September 17, 2010 at 11:15 pm
“I wonder if the SUN has anything to do with this…. COOLING?”
I am pretty sure that the IPCC reported in its last report that they were really sure that the sun had only a negligible effect on climate.
Joe,
Don’t forget us in Europe, we generally only get one source!
Whilst reporting the warmest summer on record, ( it was not!) the BBC failed to report any cold records broken in the SH winter. Another way to keep the AGW band rolling.
“A hot summer is very typical when a strong La Nina follows a strong El Nino winter (1999, 1988, 1966) or when record strong arctic blocking in winter fades (1977). ”
1966, 1977, 1988, 1999 and now 2010.
Every 11 years… If that isn’t a pattern… How about 1955 or 1944 ?
I saw Pres. Obama’s science advisor, Dr. John Holdren, speak about “climate disruption” at his keynote address to the National Academy of Engineers in April, 2010.
Here are the powerpoint slides of his speech, well worth reading:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/jph-chicago-04212010.pdf
Clearly, this policy has been in the works for quite a while!
Mark S
“You’ve been pushing this ridiculous meme for some time. If 2010 is indeed going to be the warmest on record than it’s fairly easy to guess that next year will be cooler….”
Surely not, according to CAGW.
“Washington DC and many cities of the east and south had a warm to record warm summer (while parts of the west had a cold to record cold) with the average for the nation the 4th warmest on record.”
Well that’s interesting. ABC World News informed me Friday night that this is the hottest year ever, just as GISS is working hard to ensure. They also made sure I knew the strong storms that hit New York City with the tornado that hit New Jersey were proof of global warming, while noting the several times in the historical past when they happened before. That was a lot of city dwellers freaked out, especially with public transportation shut down, guess it was a great time to make sure they knew it was a proven peer-reviewed scientific fact that they’ll be getting more of the same until they repent and turn away from their carbon sins.
Remember one of the great tenets of the (C)AGW faith, suitable as a meditation mantra after reviewing the instructional video from The Revered High Priest Al Gore:
Weather is not climate unless weather is Climate Change.
Re: Theo Goodwin says:
September 17, 2010 at 7:35 pm
From the main post
The summer was 2.2F above normal for the nation, ranking it as fourth warmest. See map:
2.2F is ~1.2 deg C. UAH recorded an August anomaly for the US of 1.03. The UAH anomaly is relative to the 1979-98 period while the anomaly in the post is relative to the 1950-95 period so, all things being equal, we’d expect the UAH anomaly to be lower. It was – by ~0.2 deg.
There doesn’t seem much evidence of a UHI effect.
No doubt the warmists will convert this information to their advantage, but whilst this information is of passing interest, surely the fourth hottest year is not a very significant fact in the GW debate. Not the hottest or second or third hottest but the fourth hottest. So what. Furthermore, its always interesting to note that the ‘ fourth hottest summer on record’ is compared not with temperatures for the past few years as we might have expected had it been the result of AGW. but the years 1966, 1988 and 1999. I wonder what caused the high temperatures in those years?
I also question the relevance of any temperature graphs on small specific areas like an American state or the whole of America in fact. Surely these figures can only be meaningful to the AGW debate if other areas of the world are treated in a similar manner and comparisons made. What, I wonder has the temperature been doing in Europe, the Middle and Far East, Australia, Scandinavia and all other areas of the World. Worldwide comparisons is surely the only way to draw relevant conclusions on what the temperatures are doing on a global scale.
Query: Can you double-check your wording in your text in this section:
That was consistent with a summer after a La Nina winter, one with low solar and high latitude volcanic activity. Last summer and last winter we were told that was weather not climate. This makes any claims that a hot summer this year is indicative of a warming world disingenuous. With La Nina coming on,
I think it should say:
That was consistent with a summer after a El Nino winter, …
Thanks,
DET
Tom in Texas says:
September 17, 2010 at 7:59 pm
OT: Is that a sizable sunspot rotating into view?
http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50
2010/09/17 04:30 Today was a poor day for viewing. Only 5 minutes were available and that was shot through cloud. Even so the main activity is clearly visible. But even on a clear day the 64x Wolfcam would not see the multitude of specks on the face right now.
http://www.landscheidt.info/images/Sept_17_4.30.png
Dr P.H. refers to the linked presentation by Dr. Holdren. It is evident that “climate disruption”, as the new, improved product has been in the works for a while. When all is said and done, the concluding sentence summarizes the presentation, nicely;
“it’s a huge asset and a huge opportunity to have a
President who gets it!”
This is all very silly. The UK had a staggeringly cold winter, a warmish spring and hotter mid-year followed by a lousy wet August and what is developing into a cold autumn. The average person, who may know little about any of the issues involved but who nevertheless experiences weather and climate over their lives, will tell you that this wasn’t what’s described here. The real targets for all this bs isn’t the general populace, who are more worried about their jobs than fractional temperatures, but the dim politicians who will be utterly uncritical and ill-infomed about any of it. And that’s what counts isn’t it?
What stands out like a sore thumb is the way the AO stayed negative. It was a blocking pattern that “locked in.” The same sort of “locked-in” blocking pattern resulted in the heat, drought and fires around Moscow last summer.
I tend to over-simplify, and then look for places my over-simplification completely fails to explain events. The last time a warm PDO and AMO gave way to a cold PDO and then cold AMO was in the 1950’s. My over-simplification postulates that the same ingredients should give the same results, however the “unprecedented” AO is a new result.
So, what to do next? Look for what is different, which might have led to these different results.
1.) A miniscule increase in a trace gas called CO2. (Billions spent studying this.)
2.) The giant sun changing its behavior. (Leif could use more money.)
Hmmm. I am well aware we can’t figure out how the exact mechanics of how the “quiet sun” could possibly effect us, however that does not prove it has no effect. I assume it is what is changing things.
I should also mention:
3.) In the 1950’s all the soot and smoke from industry was on one side of the planet. (America and Europe.) Now all the soot and smoke in on the other side. (India and China.) You couldn’t ask for a better set up for an experiment on the effects of soot and smoke, short of shutting down all industry on earth for a time.
Can’t buy the first anomaly map. Western Colorado is shown at 1.5° above normal. Considering summer started two weeks late, and ended two weeks early, and nighttime lows were not unusually warm, the map is silly.
But it’s running cold and wet in Australia and Britain:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/09/18/aussie-cold-and-wet/
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/09/18/british-cold-rather-early-too/
Texas may have just forced a federal court to get involved in climategate. No more whitewash.
Texas may have just forced a federal court to get involved in climategate. This will be the mother of all whitewashes.
There… Fixed it for ya.
RE: Paul Pierett says:
September 17, 2010 at 11:35 pm
“See ya. Signing off for a while, maybe after Christmas I will sign on again.”
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I’ve heard that before. Repeat, after me, singing:
“Oh, you swear, as you leave Vegas,
That you’re not a gambling man,
But then you find you’re back in Vegas
With a handle in your hand…”
The fact is that this site is as addictive as gambling. Fortunately it is less expensive.
Joe Matais says:
September 18, 2010 at 4:55 am
Dr P.H. refers to the linked presentation by Dr. Holdren. It is evident that “climate disruption”, as the new, improved product has been in the works for a while. When all is said and done, the concluding sentence summarizes the presentation, nicely;
“it’s a huge asset and a huge opportunity to have a
President who gets it!”
——-
Yup! Good eyes, thanks for mentioning that!
Unfortunately for the CAGW crowd, Pres. Obama rolled the dice on grand populism vs. extreme environmentalism and may end up losing at least the House, if not both House and Senate, to the Republicans in the fall due to his push towards health care, stimulus (haven’t stimulated much) etc. So, if Pres. Obama “gets it” (e.g. CAGW), he doesn’t seem to care a whole heck of a lot.
If Sen. Jim Inhofe regains his old chair as Chairman of the Senate Environment Committee, bar the door!
RichieP says: September 18, 2010 at 5:31 am
The UK had a staggeringly cold winter, a warmish spring and hotter mid-year followed by a lousy wet August and what is developing into a cold autumn.
I think there is a prolonged and significant change of the North Atlantic’s temperatures trend.
In my own investigation into the Central England Temperature oscillations since 1650 , I have identified a natural trigger for those changes. The CET response is cumulative and variable in intensity and delay, but always there.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CETnd.htm
Latest data implies a down-trend at least comparable to one in the 1950-60s
“Climate Disruption” is such a scream. The phrase was chosen by someone who shamelessly intends to avoid claims that AGW theory has suffered falsification. Of course, it could have been chosen by someone who has no understanding of scientific method whatsoever, but no such person would be working for the Obama administration, right?
anna v says:
September 17, 2010 at 9:18 pm
Your url gives me an error. Would you try again, please?
Theo Goodwin says: September 18, 2010 at 9:45 am
link: http://neo.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/
I just found Dr. John Holdren’s updated speech powerpoint on “climate disruption,” presented in Oslo, Norway on September 6, 2010:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/09/16/white-house-global-warming-global-climate-disruption/
Please note the last page of slides, this is VERY important!!
National climate-change legislation
• President Obama was emphatic that new US
energy legislation should include climate, above
all a price on carbon emissions.
• The climate component was reluctantly &
temporarily abandoned because of insufficient
support in the US Senate.
• We will try anew in the next Congress; in the
meantime, EPA is moving ahead to control
greenhouse gas emissions by regulation.