UPDATE: 8AM PST 9/13/10 JAXA has updated with their final Sept 12th data, up for the second straight day there’s been a gain:
The latest value : The latest value : 5,005,000 km2 (September 12, 2010 final data)
While the vagaries of wind and weather can still produce an about-face, indications are that the 2010 Arctic sea ice melt season may have turned the corner, earlier than last year.
In the JAXA data, there was a gain of 33,593 km2 in a single day on 9/11/10 and another gain of 18, 594 km2 on 09/12/10 (final data):
09,08,2010,4989375 09,09,2010,4972656 09,10,2010,4952813 09,11,2010,4986406 09,12,2010,5005000
Last year, when I correctly called the turn, it was September 14th:
Arctic sea ice melt appears to have turned the corner for 2009
I wrote:
That is a gain of almost 26,719 km2 from the Sept 13th value of 5, 249, 844 km2 which may very well turn out to be the minimum extent for 2009.
And it is not just the JAXA plot that indicates a turn the corner bump for 2010. The DMI 30% extent graph is showing a very sharp uptick.
Here is the relevant area zoomed and annotated:
ADDENDUM: Last year’s DMI graph about this time had similarly abrupt uptick:
Temperatures at 80°N and above are now dropping quickly, after some delay:
The annotations are mine, the current temperature is approximately -5.5° C. I say approximately, as DMI doesn’t make the data available here, only the graphical output, so I’ve had to draw a line and estimate based on the coarse scale they provide. Seawater freezes at a temperature of -1.9° C (source here) but varies with salinity. Call it -2° C, but clearly now air temperatures are cold enough above 80°N to expect some refreezing.
The NSIDC Arctic extent plot shows the beginning of a flattening, but since their smoothing algorithm adds a reporting delay, we won’t see the turn (if it holds) until about two days from now.
NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice Extent – 15% or greater – click to enlarge
If it is indeed the turn, then Arctic Sea Ice minimum for 2010 will end up at 4,952,813 km2
I may make a follow up post and have a look at all the forecast players mid to late week if the turn is confirmed. Of course my forecast has been proven incorrect already, but then, so have others.
Polar weather forecasts suggest colder weather ahead, and historically, the timing is right for a turn.
One such indicator is the Arctic Oscillation, shown below:
Source, NOAA Climate Prediction Center:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
The forecast shows a deepening AO in the next few days, which traditionally means colder temperatures and a refreeze.
So, we’ll watch and wait, and I’ll update if the turn is confirmed.
Scott / JP: 1983 … 1.5 meters
Subs say 2.8 meters (min)/3 .25 (average) see: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/figures/seaice2009fig4.jpg
– – 1983 just happened to be the RECORD year (“RA” is Subs).
Now the Arctic Ocean is 3% of the Earth’s surface. So the melt took up 1/20th = 5%. That means the Arctic is radiating More than its share, so: – – heat is flowing into the Arctic.
Golly, Scott, you just provided a rationale for the Mysterious increased flow North through Fram Strait since the 1990’s.
I keep telling you: you do not understand how unique, how significant, your calculations are.
Let me suggest you call your local University and ask to talk to the Climate Professore. Or, send this in to Arcus (which is actually Fairbanks University in central Alaska), suggesting they put it on their Sea Ice Mailing list if No one else has done this. The PBS show that talked to the Arctic Ocean Current Scientists about the Fram strait flow, had the Experts say they were stumped.
As to losing heat, JP – – a Quibble. At this moment, we have CLOUDS. They reduced the Melt, but also the Radiation to Space.
Of course, as La Ninas (cold-Equator) make for Less Clouds & they dominate the period after the PDO’s 30 years of heating …Yes, the Planet _IS_ “lolling its tongue”, in the Long term.
UPDATE on the late Updates: Nansen .php lept from Sept.9th to the 12th with an area gain of 134,872 over their 3 day “Holiday”. http://www.nersc.no/main/index2 PS: links lead to Norse, Topaz (forecast), and Bremen (click the AMSR-E)
…Nansen Area is the Norsex/ROOS Area so + 134 K, but Norsex Extent is level — as is the latest DMI , at 160 K above the previous Dip. Bremen is 140 K above its dip. But: Cryo is only 5 K, and further: when I estimated the Components, on their graphs – – like the Arctic Basin http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.1.html – – I got 49 K less than their total, on Saturday, & 91 K less yesterday. Hmmm. I get the numbers by blowing it the graphs & counting pixel by pixel, but it could be off.
Has anyone got their digital data ?
At time of Posting, Pips Displacement, still stuck on 9-11.
Jimbo says:
September 12, 2010 at 4:21 pm
Now, I will be curious to see how R. Gates paints this year’s melt season.
____
Easy. Summer sea ice extent and area continues in the lower range set in the record year of 2007. This year saw the highest or second highest total amount of ice melt (from the March high to the September low), running very close on the heals of 2008. We had to suffer weeks on end of listening to certain folks prattle on about PIPS 2.0 data showing thick MY Ice that just wasn’t goint to melt this year…yet it did melt.
Look for more record low sea ice extent and area in the Arctic between 2011 and 2015. But the most important thing to look in the next few months is CryoSat 2 data forever changing our perspectives on sea ice thickness and therefore volume.
Alexej Buergin …:
The 2.5 million likely is My Sea Ice Outlook, August 2010 .
… It was an exercise in what an El Nino would do, IF no Clouds, like 2007
It was WRONG. But.
Next El Nino melt: 2013 (?) … same risk, same condition: IF no Clouds.
PS: Re previous post – – I was: blowing “UP” the graphs.
phlogiston says:
September 13, 2010 at 3:14 pm
Exceptionally high loss of heat energy from the Arctic open sea to space.
Periodic low Arctic ice extent is the global equivalent of a dog lolling out its tongue and panting – a way of losing excess heat.
————————–
I’m glad you agree that the extra energy is there.
Interesting theory. So you think that there is a negative feedback loop system in the arctic that radiates more heat out to space when there is more open water.
Do you have any supporting docs or research? How much additional heat do you think is radiated into space for each additional million k^2 of open water? Keeping it in joules would make it easier to related back to the extra energy that is coming in that was worked out up thread.
Jeff P says:
September 13, 2010 at 5:38 pm
Jeff P, remember that my super-simple estimate does not take into account increased re-radiation back into space, which is going to be a significant value. Just don’t go quoting that number or using it to justify any ideas. Same goes for anyone else. 🙂
However, if other people want to build/improve on my calculations (especially estimating increase in radiation from Earth), please advise.
-Scott
Scott says:
September 13, 2010 at 5:53 pm
Jeff P says:
September 13, 2010 at 5:38 pm
Jeff P, remember that my super-simple estimate does not take into account increased re-radiation back into space, which is going to be a significant value. Just don’t go quoting that number or using it to justify any ideas. Same goes for anyone else. 🙂
———-
Good point Scott. I should know better than to wander from my original question which held all other variables constant for the specific purpose of exploring whether or not the energy necessary to melt the arctic sea ice is available from c02 forcing alone. I run the danger of trying to build a model here rather than just exploring the range of possibilities within given concepts.
I was enticed by the theory that phlogiston presented because it is the flip side of the albedo effect. Phlogiston, I still would like to hear more about this idea. Perhaps you can put some numbers around it expressed in joules so it’s range of possible impacts could be better understood.
AJB says:
September 13, 2010 at 6:36 am
Wayne, do you think a body of water that size undergoing a massive seasonal energy exchange with geographically restricted external influence doesn’t produce its own weather to some extent? Entropy is a wonderful thing in both senses of the term.
Sure. Absolutely. It is all ruled by the physics at all scales. (now if we could just measure and understand it all ☺)
Hmmm, did the extent increase again today?
Preliminary for the 13th = 4,995,625, a drop of only 9,375 so minimum of 4,952,813
on the 10th still holding for now.
Pamela Gray says:
September 13, 2010 at 2:40 pm
Yes, and I could possibly go through a growth spurt at age 54. I eat enough, so why am I not taller? Is it possible for that to happen? In rare cases yes. But real conditions tells us it is not probable. Shouldn’t we be talking about what is probable? Going on these fantasy trips only cheapens your argument, not mine.
========================================
Repeated for effect. Well said, as always.
Chris
Jeff P says:
September 13, 2010 at 3:11 pm
Interesting analogy but flawed. It is more like if your current food intake keeps you at a steady weight and you then add 1000 calories a day to your diet and change nothing else then it is possible that over time you are going to get fat.
===================================
Talk about a flawed analogy.
There is no proof…..NONE…that CO2 increases cause runaway global warming…..or “getting fat”.
None. Zero. Zilch. Nada. Throughout the historical record, CO2 rises lag temperature rises, by 700 to 800 years.
To compare a closed system like a human body who doesn’t exercise and adds two whoppers a day to their diet [they will pretty much guaranteed to get fat], to all the unknowns of Planet Earth and its Climate….is absurd.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Phil. says:
September 13, 2010 at 12:44 pm
[deletia]
I’d get a 24 hr ban were I to say something like that about you.
Feeling sorry for yourself? Oh please. Sometimes you can be so petulant.
Pamela Gray said
September 13, 2010 at 12:49 pm
I visit Arctic weather, jet stream, and oceanic current conditions regularly from which I can make an educated guess as to what the sea ice will do that day under those conditions.
If you ask me what I think happened or what the driver was this year, I will give you a synopsis of the natural conditions that occurred this summer and you will also easily see my point.
_____________________________________________________-
Can you state what the driver was for this year for a minimum between 2008 and 2009 Pamela? Also, can you give an estimate for what the ice extent will be tomorrow and why?
I take your point about looking at natural short term fluctuations and day to day changes, but they all add up over time to provide the trend, whether it be AGW connected or not. It does seem that the Arctic summer extent has been decreasing since the 1950’s in this latest cycle, do you have any explanation for that? Feel free to provide equations and mechanisms.
Andy
Is anyone here able to tell me the tidal range in the arctic region/North Pole through the year-with particular reference to neap and spring tides?
tonyb
Jeff P says:
September 13, 2010 at 5:38 pm
phlogiston says:
September 13, 2010 at 3:14 pm
Exceptionally high loss of heat energy from the Arctic open sea to space.
Periodic low Arctic ice extent is the global equivalent of a dog lolling out its tongue and panting – a way of losing excess heat.
————————–
I’m glad you agree that the extra energy is there.
Its only extra energy in the ocean surface, not the ocean as a whole. I’m thinking about the el Nino system as an example. No-one can deny that in the periodic el Nino events, normal upwelling of cold water in the east Pacific is interrupted, and the unmixed surface water warms in the sun. The sun shines just the same in el Nino years as in all other years – more or less. Its just that in el Nino years the unmixed surface Pacific water heats up more than normal – equally the cold deep water that otherwise would be warmed at the surface, stays deep and cold. So there is no net gain of heat in the ocean.
Some videos on Bob Tisdale’s blog show very nicely how gyres of warmed surface water rotate around the Pacific clockwise from the tropics eventually to the Arctic, so the heat is transported northward to the Arctic. And there under conditions of cold air and large areas of open water (small ice extent) the heat loss to space will be increased.
But I dont know the maths of radiation etc well enough to supply any mathematic formulation or estimate of the quantities of heat involved.
tonyb says:
September 14, 2010 at 12:02 am
Is anyone here able to tell me the tidal range in the arctic region/North Pole through the year-with particular reference to neap and spring tides?
tonyb
Not for the Arctic as a whole but I can provide one anecdote. The world record for the largest tidal range between low and high tides is held by an estuary in Alaska. (In second place is the Bristol Channel, UK.)
Phlogistan:
I’m a big fan of your comments (always learning something new from them).
Just thought I would mention the role the trade winds play in el nino and la nina. Normally the trade winds blow warm water west across the Pacific, which creates a huge pool of warm water to pile up along the equator towards Asia. When the trade winds fail for an extended period, this permits this huge pool of warm water to come crashing back to the east, spreading out and releasing tremendous amounts of energy to the atmosphere in the process. So yeah, it seems like el nino must have some cooling effect on the earth.
I have not seen the explanation why the trade winds fail for extended periods.
“So yeah, it seems like el nino must have some cooling effect on the earth.”
After temporarily heating up the atmosphere, much of this heat is lost to space so the net effect of an el nino is to decrease the amount of heat on earth (including both OHC and atmospheric heat).
R. Gates says:
“…..
My main point of skepticism of AGW relates to 2 main areas: solar effects not related to Total solar irradiance (such as magnetic field strength and length of the solar cycle), and longer term ocean cycles such as the PDO. There is some remote chance that either of these acting alone or in combintation with some other cycle, could be creating the illusion of the kinds of effects we’d expect to get from AGW. This is where my 25% skeptical side comes in, but being 75% “warmist” I obviously think that AGW is more likely, and nothing that happened this year with the Arctic Sea ice has changed that stance.”
Although others here have posted that Arctic scientists have pretty much discounted the impact of AMO and PDO cycles on the Arctic Ice pack, I still cannot logically see how this could be true.
I think SST’s clearly are a major player in determining the amount of ice lost each melt season and it is clear that negative PDO and AMO phases do eventually deliver cooler SST’s to the Pacific and Atlantic Side of the the Arctic respectively. However they haven’t both been negative at the same time for any significant length of time since the late 1960’s and early 1970’s.
If drift patterns, governed by wind and ocean currents, determine where ice goes, then climate cycles such as the PDO and AMO determine the SST temps the ice will be drifiting into.
In 2007 though we saw both positive PDO and AMO values. Whichever way the ice went it was going to encounter above average SST’s
But the PDO did go negative September 07 to June 09. In this time the extent increased as the ice on the Pacific side encountered cooler SST’s but area remained fairly static as you would expect (pointed out by R Gates in an earlier post).
One other thing. I’ve noticed as well when looking at SST anomalies in the Arctic Circle, is that when you look closely you’ll see cool anomalies in an area right up until the point the ice goes in that area then it instantly turns to a warm anomaly.
This tends to make me ponder whether differences in the timing of ice loss for an area might not distort the SST anomalies for that area. It makes little sense to me that you can have cool anomalies on the ice edge , then as soon as the ice is gone the anomaly turns warm whilst a little further out where there is change in ice coverage the anomaly remains cool.
Just an observation, would be happy if someone can explain to me why this is so. As it stands I have a certain level of suspicion regarding SST anomaly measurements in areas which lose the ice during the melt season.
For this season, the PDO was positive during Winter and through to Spring. El-nino conditions were present and as a result the SST’s on the pacific side of the Arctic were above average. This meant that when conditions in July sent ice drifting into the Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberain Seas we were always eventually going to see a lot of ice lost in August. In hindsight this should have been obvious but as this was my first year monitoring the ice I’ll plead ignorance.
I still think 2011 will be much more favourable. The current La-nina conditions which continue to strengthen will result in lower SST’s in the Pacific side of the Arctic Circle. The spanner in the works would be a counter clockwise drift pattern sending a lot of ice out the Fram Strait whilst the AMO remains positive and SST’s on that side remain above average.
” R. Gates says:
September 13, 2010 at 4:07 pm
I never forecast 2.5 million sq. km for 2011. Please stop this nonsense.”
“R. Gates says:
February 9, 2010 at 11:28 am
Prediction: Summer sea ice minimum of Sept. 2010 will be lower than 2009 or 2008, but not as low as 2007. However, 2011 summer arctic sea ice minimum will be at a record low of somewhere around 2.5 million sq. km.”
You write too many comments, much too many, and many are too long. If you would limit yourself to what is essential, it would unclog this blog and help your memory.
“Phil. says:
September 13, 2010 at 12:44 pm
‘Alexej Buergin says:
September 13, 2010 at 5:21 am
I thought the poor man was just mixing up the numbers 3 and 4.’
I’d like an apology for you insulting remark too, I’d get a 24 hr ban were I to say something like that about you.”
What I said was mainly a joke about myself; but I would understand if “the poor man” (R. Gates) might be offended. Should that be the case, I apologize to him.
I have no idea why I owe you an apology. You seem to be the type than can dish it out but not take it.
In February you were the only one to forecast a new record low for 2010. So yes, that prediction was the baddest of them all.
“jakers says:
September 13, 2010 at 10:32 am
Alexej Buergin says:
September 13, 2010 at 5:21 am
(And we were and still are talking about JAXA here, with some DMI and some ArcticROOS thrown in. US numbers are not trustworthy, UAH excepted.)
Uh, because of the conspiracy, right? And I guess the Germans are in it too…”
If you put Hansen and Serreze in one basket, Rahmstorf and Schellnhuber belong there, too, but not the University of Bremen or the Wegener Institute. But you might add CRU and MeteoSwiss:
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2009/12/15/swiss-homogenization/
Alexej Buergin says:
September 14, 2010 at 3:42 am
“Phil. says:
September 13, 2010 at 12:44 pm
‘Alexej Buergin says:
September 13, 2010 at 5:21 am
I thought the poor man was just mixing up the numbers 3 and 4.’
I’d like an apology for you insulting remark too, I’d get a 24 hr ban were I to say something like that about you.”
What I said was mainly a joke about myself; but I would understand if “the poor man” (R. Gates) might be offended. Should that be the case, I apologize to him.
I have no idea why I owe you an apology. You seem to be the type than can dish it out but not take it.
You don’t appear to get it, I’m not allowed to dish it out because of the biased moderation whereas you are allowed to call me a fool without even a snip.[what bias? . . mod]
Still no JAXA final number for yesterday, but CT area increased a whopping 47318 km^2 (extent according to CT increased a trivial amount). Given that, I’ll raise my confidence to having reached the minimum to 70% (and I’ll even ponder a guess that we’ll see the final JAXA number change to show a slight gain.)
-Scott
Please, moderator, let Phil. dish it out as much as he wants to (but only concerning me, of course, not anybody else). Because even more enjoyable than winning is watching the antics of a sore looser.