I heard on my car radio a news report interviewing hotel and resort property owners on the East Coast that lost virtually all their bookings this holiday weekend due to warnings for hurricane Earl. A direct quote from one of the people interviewed was:
It was the storm that wasn’t
The Shelter Island Reporter in the Long Island area seems to like that phrasing too for their story:
Rain, heavy at times, is all the Island got from Earl, which was downgraded to a tropical storm by 11 p.m. Strong winds did not reach Shelter Island. The rain total on Shelter Island for Friday was 1.71 inches
About the same time, an email from my friend Jan Null, former lead forecaster for the NWS in San Francisco showed up on my phone. He’s railing on about the bad reporting in the media, which I can understand, because TV networks have been chomping at tghe bit to get a new hurricane lead story, and with the holiday weekend mixed in, it was a perfect media storm. Though, with not much actually happening inland, some reporters were perhaps stretching a bit.
Jan writes:
In watching and listening to coverage of Hurricane Earl, I have heard way too many “meteorologists” speak about “hurricane force gusts”! There’s no such thing! The amount of force of a gust is significantly less than the sustained winds that define a hurricane.
Here’s what I wrote for a piece in Examiner.com last year (http://www.examiner.com/sf-in-san-francisco/meteorological-pet-peeves-part-1-of-3 )
“Hurricane Force Winds” It seems that anytime there is a wind gust over about 60 mph the airwaves and other sources, including NWS statements, are rife with the expression “hurricane force” winds. While this might be good for conveying that it’s windy and might be dangerous, it’s both bad meteorology and bad physics! (And calling it a hurricane force gust doesn’t make it right either) Let’s start with some basics. The threshold for hurricane winds is when the 1-minute sustained winds equal or exceed 74 miles per hour.
Please note the word “sustained”! According to the NOAA Hurricane Research Division, peak 3 to 5-second gusts are approximately 30% higher than their associated sustained winds. This means that a 74 mph sustained wind of a minimal hurricane has gusts in the range of 96 mph. Quite a difference. But that’s just the wind speed.
What about the amount of force from the wind onto a surface that is perpendicular to the wind? From high school physics we remember that the force associated with a given speed is proportional to the square of the wind speed. (For the overachievers out there, the formula to calculate this force is: F = .00256 x V^2, where F is the force in pounds per square foot (psf), and V is the wind velocity in mph)
Consequently, the amount of force with a 74 mph gust is 14.0 psf, while the force from a 96 mph gust is 23.6 psf; or 69% higher. The bottom line is that a gust to 74 mph is NOT even close to hurricane force!
Regards,
Jan
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Jan Null
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Webpage: http://ggweather.com
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If they said ‘robust gust’ – we’d all know what those are…lol
There is a prediction I feel sure of. I predict there will be an unprecedented increase in “storms that aren’t” with this “global climate change”. ☺
You mean to say; it isn’t worse than expected? Just think how many lives were saved or created by recklessly over-hyping this tempest!
It seems to me that a lot of businesses aren’t losing money due to storm damage but to ‘media’ damage.
With all the attention weather, climate, climate scientists, etc have been getting, they just wanted their piece of the attention….
We have escalated climate scientists, hurricane specialists, meteorologists, etc way above their knowledge….
Like someone mentioned on another blog, so what, they can predict the most bed wetting hysterical disaster,
and when they are wrong, no one holds them accountable.
Earl — the media but event. Even after Earl air-kissed North Carolina, the media would go on to report on the projected path for Earl, with a passing nod to proper reporting noting that its path might keep it well out at sea, but …
Yes, but … if the path shifted west a hundred miles or so the devastation would be horrific. And then they would note how many major population centers might be in its path if it varied just a little. Everyone should flee for their lives. Blah, blah, blah …
I had Earl pegged as a non-event before it got close to the Carolinas, kept describing it as a media event, and sure enough, the media responded true to form (and they can’t even sense all that egg on their faces). And for the Cape Cod snobs, they’ve still got two days of the holiday weekend to enjoy at the beach and on their sailboats.
There’s a nice volcano up-chucking in Indonesia for the media to get all excited about.
Plus, there’s a very good chance that La Nina will leave the barn door open this winter.
0.25 in of rain in Newton MA. I am glad it decided to go the way it should have gone and head out east. So far, so good for this season. I hope it sticks. It looks like the low UV on the solar cycle really does keep hurricanes out of the Gulf.
“Like someone mentioned on another blog, so what, they can predict the most bed wetting hysterical disaster,and when they are wrong, no one holds them accountable.”
If you really believe that, Mr. or Ms. Latitude, I urge you to read “Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather.” It will change your mind. Meteorology is now probably the most effective science at saving lives at a very low societal cost.
I’d bet there’s plenty of media dissapointment this weekend. You know many of them were hoping for hurricane Katrina visits Long Island with video of Joey Buttafuoco getting blown out to sea by one of those hurricane force gusts.
rbateman says–upchucking
That volcano is scary because of it’s proximity to Toba- the mega volcano that up-chucked several thousand years ago and “scientist” say it probably wiped out all of man except maybe 10 thousand. Ash in India was 6 meters deep. As they say down my way-“It was a Bugger.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/toba
We’re on the Delaware coast and we barely got any rain or wind. Nor’easters have been much worse in the three years we’ve been here. The problem seemed to be that there was a race between the storm and a trough moving across the US. If they were wrong, the steering currents wouldn’t have curved it out to sea and we could have had a direct hit. It also started falling apart about the time it past Cape Hatteras so the Cat 5 was no where near that when it past us.
And Jan , where would the weather channel be without hurricane and blizzard hype?
I live in western New Hampshire and I only got few rain drops out of Earl! Sheeesh. And my lawn needs the rain, too…
the MET office will be back looking out the window for another storm . THIS time please open the shutters .
Our beloved CBC Radio began non-stop coverage of the arrival of Earl from around 0600 until past 1300 (when I stopped listening). There was report after report from people around the Maritime provinces (New Brunswick Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island). The CBC staffers must have been disappointed, because Earl hung a right before reaching NS and skimmed along the S coast (as I understand it, anyway). Some downed trees and powerlines and very wet roads, but very little actual damage. Here in southern NB we got less rain and wind than I’d see in a good summer storm. (No complaints, mind you!!)
The phrase that comes to my mind for these CBC excitathons is “wretched excess”. It’s not the first time that they’ve tried to make a mountain out of the traditional molehill.
IanM
We must not be fooled by such “rotten” gusts 😉
Watching Mark Sudduth ( http://www.hurricantrack.com ) report faithfully and accurately from Kill Devil Hills and all along the Pamlico Sound, it was clear that Earl was a windy rain event only. Despite that, the ABC Nightline article that he was included in was chock full of doom-saying references.
Take one media report, dilute at least 50% and then take slowly with long periods of calm in between. Only way to watch the “news”.
I was in Gulfport Ms. the night before hurricane katrina at an Air Nat. Guard reunion at a casino. I decided to leave around midnight and go back to my room and pack and go home to a town near Mobile Alabama. The casino I was at washed up on the beach when katrina hit. Nothing can describe the damage to Mississippi. I drove through the same area after after hurricane Camille in 1969. It was very bad also-but I think Katrina was worse. The media only reports about New Orleans. If you had seen the damage a hurricane can do-you would always respect them and never complain if you were spared or it appeared that the metrologists or someone had overstated what could happen. It could have. The Eastern U.S. was very lucky. I know the media is praying for a bad storm so they can gain attention-they are the lowest of humans.
You can’t change the fact that this storm was a major category 4 storm and a large category 2 when it was threatening landfall in the outer banks. You have to treat these seriously since its difficult to predict exactly when weather patterns over the US will stall or develop in order to push hurricane tracks around. What I see looking at the hurricane paths are that we dodged a potential bullet — and steering winds really have nothing much to do with climatology.
Can they sue anybody for lost revenues?
Visiting Boston (Newtonville) from the UK, I was almost looking forward to a real Tropical Storm, only to get less than many a summer thunderstorm coming across the Chanel from France to the East Sussex where I live…still, we had prayed it would miss us. I’m old enough to know better than trust the media, but still get seduced somehow – and meteorologists do need to warn of what might easily happen from such storms!
Lamont,
I wouldn’t worry about it. The government has the weather under control.
We’ve reached the point in our society where the ‘powers that be’ will always assume the worst, just to cover their a$$e$. There’s a fetish for safety paired with the fear of responsibility that go together like bacon and eggs. Mandatory closing of restaurants on Martha’s Vinyard – one place stayed open two hours, and they came with guns and shut them down. Excuse me, but if I choose to risk my life eating broiled swordfish and pie, that’s my business. I am fully capable of determining the nature of risk to my well-being.
Ten years ago, we started our pet friendly holiday rental business. This consisted of several modern houses where families could bring their kids and their dog (s). 4 star rated !
Up until 2007, we were showing 90% occupancy for each year.
The down turn started with the media hype, “expecting 14 tropical storms to form off the Queensland coast this season, of which 6 are likely to make land fall on the central Queensland coast, due to global warming.” . “ The storms are likely to be more severe than those of the past, because of global warming”. Every year, during our spring, we now get these alarmist pronouncements in the media, and to date, nothing much has happened.
Two years ago, a “major” tropical storm, cyclone, tracked down the Queensland coast “Hamish” . Hamish stayed about 60 nm off the coast. The media was in “mad alarmist mode” and that panic spread to emergency services and they evacuated Fraser Island and people left Hervey Bay. This panic, whipped up by the media, destroyed our, what could have been, best season. The village of Rainbow Beach almost went broke, as they rely on the tourists going to Fraser Island.
When “Hamish” finally passed by Hervey Bay (60 miles to the East), it was a fine sunny day with a light SE breeze, not enough to blow a candle out. And not a soul in sight !
Up until 2007, Hervey Bay was a wonderful destination for a vacation and many large resorts were built and today most are lucky to have 20% occupancy. Five star accommodation 3 years ago was making $400 – $500 a night. Today, you can walk in off the street and get a 5 star, 3 bedroom apartment for $60 a night.
The media and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology have a lot to answer for. Their predictions are rarely right, the wind speeds, tide heights, (I have a large boat in the marina) and storm direction and predicted track, are way off. It has got to the stage where few believe that the storms are anything to worry about. “The boy that cried wolf”.
This last year, the media is again predicting a severe cyclone season for 2010- 2011, because of global warming, so with the expected low tourism trade, we have sold off several houses, and put permanent tenants in the remaining ones.
Of course the GFC hasn’t been much of a help.
Where do I claim compensation ??
There was cause for concern, because it WAS, at its peak, a really intense hurricane, not only in the Saffir Simpson scale, but also using the Integrated Kinetic Energy scale, as Dr. Jeff Masters discusses in his blog.
If you look back at the satellite presentations of Earl when he was at his peak, you will se a clear, round, stadium-effect eye, a la Katrina. This was the same time the pressure dropped to 932 millibars, 50 foot seas were recorded at a bouy, and a dropsonde recorded a 199 MPH gust [flight-level].
A variety of factors….increasing wind shear, a huge blob of upper and mid level dry air that was forced into the system, decreasing SSTs….and the big unknowns whatever they may be…played into this.
The initial danger of this storm was rather grave, but as it rapidly weakened and even then the center mercifully stayed well offshore at all times, there was minimal effect.
Had it tracked 150 miles west, there would be a different story to tell. Because it had weakened so, it still would not be that bad, maybe an Isabel.
[interesting the models corrected too far west, and then were not far east enough in the final track].
It is doubly unfortunate because it puts the NHC in a difficult position: Run the risk of hype when it doesn’t happen or wait too late to warn when it does.
Damned if ya do and damned if ya don’t.
For those of us awed by nature’s mightiest display of meteorology, it is a lesson learned that sometimes we can dodge the bullet.
But sometimes we don’t. Ask the residents on coastal whose communities were literally swept away from the likes of names of Rita, Ike, Ivan, etc…..in recent years.
And so hopefully people will not become complacent just because this storm was a major bust.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
In some ways, Earl was a worst-case scenario for civil defense/crisis management folks.
On one hand, you had a cat 4 storm and a track prediction cone that gave the storm a chance of coming inland. On the other hand, (speaking for New England here), the track predictions had been remarkably stable, and the forecasting easy enough so that you hardly needed a computer. By the time hurricanes reach New England, they’re weakening and accelerating. Each effect gives folks on the left side of the storm (all of us) weaker winds.
Had the storm jogged westward in the last hours, and there are many examples of that happening, there would have been people on the right side in stronger winds, the eyewall would pass over several others.
It’s a really tough call, and encouraging visitors to stay away for a day made sense. Amtrack shutdown, I’m not sure if that made sense. I guess it’s easier to rescue people from a blown over bus on an interstate highway than a train derailed by a washout miles away from good roads.
At any rate, the next storm that comes calling is going to have to be a lot more threatening before anyone budges for it. Ultimately, that might be Earl’s tragic legacy.
As for the hype, I’m not sure how to control that. Even NECN (New England Cable News) said they’d give us the news straight – but they had their entire met staff and more out in the weather. In general, the problem is the news director. I’ve heard Mets from other stations rant about the pressure to keep saying something new and more exciting every 10 minutes, even when it’s clear the event is more non- that Wow!
Oh well – maybe we’ll get a big storm soon and people will have a chance to compare it with future risks and the MSM might offer more balanced assessments.
As for me near Concord NH – no wind to speak of and all of 0.01″ of rain. I got 3400% more rain from a cold front that came through just before dawn – 0.35″.