With Sea Ice News # 20 closed here is a place for ongoing discussing the 2010 season.
That’s it. I may add a picture later.
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With Sea Ice News # 20 closed here is a place for ongoing discussing the 2010 season.
That’s it. I may add a picture later.
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Jeff P.
“Oh, that’s why all the Super Skeptics are attacking my data driven posts by calling me names. Thanks for clearing that up Gail.”
Evidence please.
Walter Dnes says:
September 3, 2010 at 2:07 pm
R. Gates says:
September 3, 2010 at 11:54 am
> Continued high SST anomalies across much of the Arctic
> make me remain confident that we’ve got a few more weeks
> of decline in ice extent here in September (depending on
> winds of course), and am still calling for the final summer
> low to be set between Sept. 20 to Sept. 25.
Thank you for a testable prediction. I’m calling for a min around Labour Day (September 6th). See my post back in mid-August at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/15/sea-ice-news-18/#comment-458213 for the rationale. I’m in the same boat as Livingston+Penn, in that I’m extrapolating statistics, and I don’t have a solid explanation for the root cause. Almost like “technical analysis” in the stock market.
_____
SST’s and winds (causing compacting or divergence), not the DMI (even if it was completely accurate), have more influence on the final extent number. SST’s remain higher than normal and there is lots of low concentration ice still around the Arctic, for example, as found in this Ice Breaker Healy photo from today:
http://mgds.ldeo.columbia.edu/healy/reports/aloftcon/2010/20100903-1801.jpeg
It doesn’t take a lot of imagination to imagine the wind either compacting or diverging this ice, causing the extent to fall or rise in response.
I would be very suprized if we had the final summer low hit on September 6th. The only way I could see this happening would be from lots of divergence that hit, and then a quick freeze over, which would of course lead to even more “rotting ice”. The amount of warmer than normal water leads me to push the final low being set Sept. 20th to 25th.
R. Gates says:
September 3, 2010 at 2:43 pm
Grr, missed a / in the closing blockquote HTML. 🙁
AndyW says:
September 3, 2010 at 12:57 pm
I never said the Arctic and the Antarctic were correlated. Since they move in a mathematical relationship (like 3:2 eg) they would be poor candidates for a hypothesis such as AGW. And they should not be used as such in any short-term analysis. Even worse is to try and use one of them (Arctic) as a canary for Climate Change. Until enough time has passed to see 3 crossings of anomalies, it’s an exercise in futility, and the NULL hypothesis has to stand.
Jeff P says:
September 3, 2010 at 5:06 am
All of your comparison data are to times before the 2007 melt occured.
This is the same thing that is done when a paper is put out with data ending in 2000. Where’s the current data?
It’s a big cherry pick, especially when justification for comparison years selection to avoid bias in not stated.
When you don’t include your justification for selection, your conclusion is suspect if you do not use all the data.
Don’t those who feel global warming is real have a blog of their own to dominate? Why do they feel they must talk and talk here? I think they are whistling past the cemetery.
Gail Combs says:
September 3, 2010 at 12:38 pm
They can’t stop sailing those Ice breakers back and forth because they have to ferry all those CAGW scientists up there so they can exclaim about all that broken up ice. They also have to rescue the ships trying to sail thru the passage or break a path for the ships trying to sail thru.
There’s been precious little ice there to break up this year, and a couple of Royal marines might take issue with you about following icebreakers, they just finished their ‘yomp’ from Gjoa Havn to Resolute by rowing the last 12 miles into port.
> There’s been precious little ice there to break up this year
So why don’t the Canadian, US, and Russian governments save tens/hundreds of millions of dollars by leaving their icebreakers dry-docked for the summer?
Just for you Jeff P
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3VE0KbqKoOI]
Hey Idjut,
I saw it too! That ole co2 ravaging the ole sea ise. Sssshh! its herezy.
backwards and forwards, backwards and forwards, ravaging, ravaging.
hell in a handbasket. ravaging,ravaging.
How many would brave the Arctic passages without electronics??
It’s might difficult to tell from an Anomaly reading, but the current Global Sea Ice is around 92% of the 30 year mean.
Seems that data is mighty hard to come by, especially when it comes to analysis that supports theory.
So I have decided to call attention to the origin of the analysis that leads to the claims of an Arctic Death Spiral:
Anomalopogenic
Phil. says:
September 3, 2010 at 6:39 pm
The NW passage, last I looked, is not limited to the last 12 miles to the unnamed port.
Lots of climbers attempt to scale this icy mountain in my part of the woods.
Some of them are welcomed as brave and newsworthy. Some of them are not so lucky.
rbateman says:
September 3, 2010 at 8:38 pm
Phil. says:
September 3, 2010 at 6:39 pm
The NW passage, last I looked, is not limited to the last 12 miles to the unnamed port.
I suggest you reread the post since you appear to have missed some of it!
Lots of climbers attempt to scale this icy mountain in my part of the woods.
Some of them are welcomed as brave and newsworthy. Some of them are not so lucky.
Not clear what the relevance of this is?
stevengoddard says:
September 3, 2010 at 7:23 pm
Just for you Jeff P
==============================
True to form, Steven. Hahaha you crack me up.
Nothing like a few pictures and visuals to get your point across.
Nice.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
stevengoddard says:
September 3, 2010 at 7:23 pm
Just for you Jeff P
Interesting graphic, what does the green dot represent?
What happened to the NSIDC June prediction?
Also the scale appears to be distorted, based on your two predictions one ring increment represents 0.4, in which case the NSIDC marks appear to be misplaced.
Marcia, Marcia
That is how I feel about the sea ice thread this year, I am tired of hearing their views on rotten ice and an ice free arctic in summer. If they believe in AGW why don’t they post on a pro AGW website.
Jeff P says:
September 3, 2010 at 8:14 am
Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
September 3, 2010 at 7:38 am
But 9 years of data is too short.
———–
Funny, I don’t recall this criticism of the JAXA data when Steve was using it in post after post to support his arctic sea ice recovery theory. Why didn’t you bring it up then?
You wouldn’t be biased, would you?
You are comparing things that are not the same. It seems that since you trolls think Steven Goddard is banned from WUWT you have turned your attention on me. I just don’t think you guys know what you are doing.
If you cannot see that Arctic ice is growing since 2007, if the data that is right in front of you isn’t showing you that, if it isn’t legible to you, then my arguments aren’t going to be legible to you either. So I’m not going to try to argue with you. I’m not in the business of trying to change the minds of people who don’t want to change their mind. All of you fellows can take your shots. Knock yourselves out. But the data will stay the same 🙂
Nothing out of the ordinary is happening in Arctic ice. Manmade influences are not changing the weather and the climate. There is no evidence that Arctic ice is in a death spiral, or that there is going to be ice free summers in the Arctic in 20 years. To claim either of these things from 30 years of data, i.e., 1979 until now, is wrong. The earth is 4.5 billion years old. Making predictions of doom from 30 years of data is the same as saying the sky is falling because an acorn fell onto your head.
People reading these comments can decide what to think of what they read from you and from me.
Walter Dnes says:
September 3, 2010 at 7:22 pm
> There’s been precious little ice there to break up this year
So why don’t the Canadian, US, and Russian governments save tens/hundreds of millions of dollars by leaving their icebreakers dry-docked for the summer?
Walter,
I think these commenters who are talking about the Northwest Passage being open don’t know what they are doing. It looks like they are living in some sort of fantasy and are comforting themselves by imagining the Northwest Passage is open. It’s like they are pretending with each other.
Phil
go ahead and nit pick, but why don’t you just admit he almost got it right. And why don’t you admit your Barber’s alarmism about rotted ice is wrong.
If you don’t want to that’s up to you. But agreeing with the truth will only help you. Not agreeing with what is plainly happening will be bad for you. It’s up to you. You determine what kind of person you will be.
Phil. says:
September 3, 2010 at 9:09 pm
Not clear what the relevance of this is?
There is nothing new about people defying dangerous mountain conditions nor risking life & limb in the Arctic.
Your story of 2 marines rowing the last 12 miles to an undisclosed port was not substantiated by reference, and
There’s been precious little ice there to break up this year implies ‘piece of cake’ conditions, which would be news if it were substantiated.
Why then, if the ice was nowhere to be found, did they row the last 12 miles only?
Contradictory on face value.
So, my tale of bravery vs stupidity is just as unrefereced as yours.
suggest you reread the post since you appear to have missed some of it!
Only the reference to the unlinked story.
So why don’t the Canadian, US, and Russian governments save tens/hundreds of millions of dollars by leaving their icebreakers dry-docked for the summer?
The Russians have special cargo that needs to get through and mineral resource staking to do.
The Canadians have territory issues to monitor and NW Passage mad-dashers to rescue.
The US is up there to keep an eye on everyone else and check out the mineral resources situation.
The north west passage is open this year, definition of being open, not being blocked by ice. At one point if you picked your route the most “blocked” part you would have come across, according to the Canadian ice service, was between 1 /10 – 3/10
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS56CT/20100830180000_WIS56CT_0005166651.gif
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS55CT/20100830180000_WIS55CT_0005166701.gif
and according to the nice images Amino kindly linked to in an earlier thread that looks like this
http://www.ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/default.asp?lang=En&n=19CDA64E-1
(see under comcentration of ice 2/3 down)
which is described as ” very open drift”. Note the word “open”, And “very”.
So all this talk of being closed is [snip] rewriting of history, it seems the people who keep saying it simply think it will come true if they say it for long enough. Here’s a clue, it won’t.
Andy
REPLY: That [snip] was a poor word choice on your part, please don’t use that word again to describe readers of this blog. – Anthony
Latest JAXA 2010 is below 2009, not sure if it adjusted yet.
So the recovery stops, extent wise. The recovery from 2007 has also stopped area wise
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png
Andy