With Sea Ice News # 20 closed here is a place for ongoing discussing the 2010 season.
That’s it. I may add a picture later.
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NZ Willy
September 2, 2010 12:58 pm
Looks like the arctic cap north of Svalbard is disintegrating, so spreading southwards and increasing the ice extent. It’ll probably re-freeze before much of it exits the chute.
Frederick Michael
September 2, 2010 6:52 pm
The extraordinarily low ice extent on the east coast of Greenland bodes well for an early minimum. This area keeps on melting later than anywhere else.
I’d be shocked if it doesn’t drop any more, but it’s possible. Some areas are already freezing up.
Get some popcorn and enjoy the horse race.
Marcia, Marcia
September 2, 2010 7:37 pm
I hope there isn’t any bad blood here over this triple point issue. It doesn’t appear that there is. It does look like some misunderstandings have happened. I hope that Steven Goddard will still be doing guest posts. His posts have been interesting. I know there have been flare ups from a few people over some of the things he has said. But flare ups are nothing new global warming.
rbateman
September 2, 2010 8:10 pm
Christian Steger says:
September 2, 2010 at 8:51 am
Yes, I believe you are correct: The DMI held steady because it has been snowing heavily. Wonder if it is also coming down hard in Greenland?
Strongly recommend this be added as a new thread!
Better translation and much more analysis needed, but preliminary data from the summary he provided indicate that the earlier “catastrophic Greenland/Anarctica ice field melting” from processed GRACE satellite data was wrong.
From above: seven says:
September 2, 2010 at 7:29 am
Breaking news in The Netherlands, a big Dutch University (Delft University of Technology) has found that :
“Melting rate icecaps Greenland and Western Antarctica lower than expected
The melting of the ice sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica is about twice as slow as previously thought. The study, conducted by TU Delft, SRON and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The scientists published their findings in the September issue of Nature Geoscience. http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n9/index.html
Grace
The melting of ice sheets since 2002 is mapped with measurements of the two GRACE satellites. These detect from space small changes in the gravitational field of the earth. These changes are related to the exact distribution of mass on Earth, including ice and water. As ice melts and sea, is this influence in the gravity field.
Amino Acids in Meteorites
September 2, 2010 9:30 pm
rbateman
The Canadian Ice Service shows the Northwest Passage almost closed in parts of the McClure Straits. There is evidence there is anywhere from 40% to 80 % concentration of ice in those places. There is talk by some that the Northwest Passage is open. But they don’t have evidence for it. And a boat is stuck in the Northwest Passage.
Scott
September 2, 2010 9:31 pm
Phil. says:
September 2, 2010 at 11:41 am
Your suspicions may be right, and I think they likely are, but it’s hard to say given the big disagreements in the different databases. NORSEX has 15% extent roughly equal to 2009 and area about halfway between 2008/2009. Bremen has 15% extent about halfway between 2008/2009. JAXA has 15% extent slightly lower than 2009, but well above 2008, while area is close to 2008, though slightly above.
What’s odd is that if area is well below 2009 while 15% extent is a touch under 2009, I’d expect the DMI 30% extent to be somewhere in between, but DMI’s 30% extent seems to give the highest rating for 2010 of all the measures, with it effectively tracking 2009 the last several days and being slightly above it today.
Overall, much of the ice does seem low concentration…not too surprising given the subpar starting point of the ice and the El Nino this year…the ice has taken a real beating. But I’m wondering if it’s too late in the season for it to have a precipitous drop, as temperatures are dropping and refreezing may begin to take place…only the next 1-3 weeks will tell.
Preliminary JAXA number for Sept 2 showed its biggest loss in the last 5 days: ~31000 km^2. If this number holds, then the ice is officially below 2005’s minimum…2009 is next and very close. After that, a huge amount (another 5.4e5 km^2 when the most lost in any year from here to the minimum is 362500 km^2) to lose to reach 2008.
-Scott
Amino Acids in Meteorites
September 2, 2010 9:44 pm
So, if I’m seeing this right, the reason Sea Ice #20 was closed is because of the heated argument that started. It is now over at Steven Goddard’s blog.
I remember Anthony said he wanted to lighten things up here at WUWT (my paraphrase). So with that in mind I could understand why he wanted the discussion to end here. And, contrary to what some have said, it looks like Steven Goddard is not ‘banned’ here but will still be posting here at WUWT.
So then, anytime a discussion that gets hot in a Steven Goddard post and is stopped because of it, which jeez, Mosher, Phil, and others turn them in to, it can always go over to his blog and continue there. It’s a quick click to get there. Wow! That works! 🙂 And I think there will be some good fruit come of it over there. It’s a win-win!
Great idea Anthony! Chalk one up for Anthony Watts!
Village Idiot
September 2, 2010 9:58 pm
Arctic Sea Ice 2010 – Good to see the Recovery continueing in full swing again this year, the NW Passage closed all summer, and temperatures at the pole under freezing!
(Do I sense a slight tension here between the Master and Oracle Goddard who, we were lead to believe, recently voluntarily left the Village to start his own community? Was the Oracle in reality sent into exile?)
Village Idiot said
September 2, 2010 at 9:58 pm
Arctic Sea Ice 2010 – Good to see the Recovery continueing in full swing again this year, the NW Passage closed all summer, and temperatures at the pole under freezing!
_____________________________________________
I don’t think anyone will fall for your trap of stating the complete opposite of what actually happened this year just to make an argument 😉
Andy
Amino Acids in Meteorites
September 2, 2010 10:14 pm
Scott says:
September 2, 2010 at 9:31 pm DMI’s 30% extent seems to give the highest rating for 2010 of all the measures….. Overall, much of the ice does seem low concentration…
That is a contradiction.
The reason DMi is high compared to the others is because almost all of the ice is at a high concentration. 30% concentration being so different could be a sign of cooling in the earth.
Arctic ice is not rotted and alarmingly thin as some claim. Mostly the edge around the ice is at low concentration making it susceptible to winds and temperature. It’s normally like that. That makes it highly variable. And that will make the difference in the graphs.
There is the hypothesis that Arctic Ice in the Beaufort Sea is rotted by manmade emissions. But no evidence has been presented that proves ice in the Beaufort Sea is any different than it has been in the past, say 50, or 100 years ago. Until evidence come along that ice in the Beaufort Sea is different than it has been at other times the rotted ice hypothesis is just a hypothesis; just another one of many hypothesis’ about global warming that has no proof.
Amino Acids in Meteorites
September 2, 2010 10:33 pm
AndyW
Your comment comes out of the blue. We are familiar how? What am I right about being closed? Your comment, honestly, is incoherent. What are you saying? What are those graphs supposed to be telling us, the readers?
This is the McClure Straits in the Canadian Ice Service image from today. http://img704.imageshack.us/img704/7818/9310cmmbctcacrop.jpg
This is the evidence. The Northwest Passage is not open.
Paul K2
September 2, 2010 10:36 pm
hey guys… I am commenting up a storm on Arctic ice over at Goddard’s place as Zinfan94. But I am the only one there! Come over, and join in.
He now claims the warm winds are melting the ice pack… he won’t accept any other explanation for ice melt except thermal energy carried into the ice pack by warm winds. This theory depends on air temperatures being significantly (10-15 deg F) above freezing, so it appears that Steven Goddard now believes that Arctic surface temperatures are much higher than freezing.
He seems to have bought into the GISS extrapolation of warmer surface air temperatures across the Arctic. Comments?
AndyW says:
September 2, 2010 at 10:02 pm
so how does that show up on rbateman’s black and white anomaly graph comparison?
You rang? It would be nice to have been requested in the 1st person.
Nevertheless: http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/seaice.anomaly.Ant_arctic.jpg
The composite of Arctic/Antartic Sea Ice Anomaly graphs courtesy of Cyrosphere Today shows a musical duet.
A product only of numerical coincidence, these 2 anomalies wander in and out of step like 2 clocks on different frequencies.
Both are fully within thier respective ranges of trend. Somewhere around 6 months ago, they touched each other, meeting at a mind-boggling and stupendoulsy amazing Global Average of -0.25 M sq km.
A really big deal, for in early 2009 they were inverted to what they are today, with the Arctic at min and Antarctic at max.
Hey, isn’t this like, you know, predictable stuff?
rbateman
September 3, 2010 1:13 am
Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
September 2, 2010 at 10:33 pm
I suppose the NW Passage is open today if you are at the helm of an Icebreaker.
Can you imagine the nightmares that the Cruise Ship Captain gets over that close encounter with rocks last month in the NW Passage? That’s got to be one sickening crunch. No word on whether the crippled ship can be retrieved before the Ice claims it as another trophy ship.
savethesharks
September 3, 2010 1:29 am
Jeez,
I understand your constraints. But you are being most unreasonable here. And don’t launch into a diatribe against me like you did the last time.
This is a blog….not a peer reviewed journal. I certainly appreciate your intellect and have learned the ropes (the hard way) on this blog.
But for you to throw the steven goddard baby out with the bathwater is just not right, is distasteful, and rather unscientific.
I realize I run the risk of becoming myself snipped and censored and if it is a problem you can always email me at sharkhearted@gmail.com
I personally appreciated steven’s sea ice posts. They may not have been perfect but they were not necessarily wrong either.
He has a style about reporting that is very brief and to the point.
For you guys to ban him because he is broaching a “forbidden” subject is just ridiculous.
All the great minds on here need to figure out how to work together and solve problems rather than degenerating into un-evolved ape-like battles of raw ego.
Hey, we all do it, but that don’t make it right.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA Reply: Steven is not banned. He is just not going to be a contributing author. I may have to back read this thread to see if I’ve missed something. ~ ctm
Charles Wilson
September 3, 2010 2:08 am
… a NEW phenomena is running — or about to start up: low angle Sun / Oceanic REFRACTION. Or actually: two:
1. At the Ocean Surface, a very low angle ray can be even more likely to reflect off the SEA, than even bright white Ice.
2. Above the surface, Sunlight refracts over the Horizon even if it the Sun is technically Set. See: http://www.eh2r.com/
Either of these could be VERY significant. If, that is, the Sun ever returns !
… I have 3 new calculations of ___ THE DAY THE SUN RETURNS – –
the 5th, 12th or 19th, based on the time delay for High pressure to return – – times the strength of the El Nino relative to 2007’s.
This is because the 2010’s El Nino was 1.64 times the rating of 2007’s (1.8/1.1) so CLOUDS would be generated IN PROPORTION (& then take longer to get wiped out by the La Nina — again see Wayne Davidson’s site, above) . 2007 seems to have slowed melt in May/early June for 5-6 weeks – – this year’s El Nino was a “Modoki” which lasts ~ 2 months longer, so the CLOUDS arrived on June 28 … so I am “trying” 3 Methods: #1 = June 29 + 6 weeks times the El Nino ratio (1.8/1.1=1.64) … Method #2m = 5 weeks times the ratio, PLUS 33% for El Nino “Modoki” that last longer, … Method #3 = 6 weeks times (1.8/1.1) + 33%
– – it makes sense that if there are more Clouds, it takes longer for the New La Nina to dry them out.
MAYBE this will work for Upcoming years. AS you may know, the EXTREME Outlook [ = ZERO Ice ] came from Me – – BUT, as I said, If I am wrong, it will be the Clouds”. Not one of the Experts could tell me – – even STEVE – – what the Clouds would do. So I made up my Own theory … OK, I actually just Hijakked Wayne’s Theory – – & added two “tweaks” : his reasoning is fine, but he was unaware of “Modoki” – – which delayed the El NINO/La NINA switch to JULY, KILLING THE BEST MELTING MONTH, and, that there were more Clouds (1.64 times, or maybe +33% = 2.2 TIMES, though offset by the fact the La Nina is itself a kind of “rebound” effect, & as such, one after a Modoki should be STRONGER — & this one looks like FIMBUL WINTER is coming (La Ninas are COLD).
On the subject of Ice Area, there is a SECOND Area number Source, at Nansen, the Parent of the Arctic Roos/Norsex Quad of graphs.
Look on the Bottom of the Page. The number for All-time Minimum has apparently been increased 10% to account for a new Algorithm, if the NSIDC explanation that the new Algorithms may be better, yet invalidate comparisons to previous years, has been heard & provoked a re-calculation of the Old figures ( 2010 Norsex Daily Area seems to match the 2010 Nansen Daily number precisely).
Compare Nansen & JAXA/Cryosphere numbers:
(taking Older Nansen Numbers off the Arctic Roos graph)
Year: ___________ 2007 _____ 2008 _____ 2009 ______ 2010
Nansen/Norsex: ___ 3.62 ______ 3.90 ______ 4.27 _______ 4.350662
Cryo / ijis ______ 2.9194391 __ 3.0035558 __ 3.4265975 ___ 3.2508845
Last 4 days N. :___ +_ 9,124___ -29,380.0 ___ -33,505.7 ___ +45,367.4
Last 4 days Cry___-143,476___ – 29,903.9___ + _4,424____ -71,642.4
# to Min. Nansen = __ 1006 K ___450 K _____ 80 K__(K = 1,000km2)
# to Min (Cryo) = ___ 332 K ___ 245 K ____ -180 K _(Min=MINimum)
# To Go to Min(Na) =__17 % ____ 10 % _____ 2 %
# To Go ( Cryo )___=__10 % _____ 8 % _____ PASSED ( by 5 %)
– – Obviously, these are two SERIOUSLY DIFFERENT area measures.
Perhaps that is why, for the Extent numbers, only ONE (the Jaxa) is published
#ToGo EXTENT = __ 19.5% ____11.2% _____ 0.2 % (JAXA)
Nansen AREA at http://www.nersc.no/main/index2.php — note Link: to Norsex via SSMI
Cryo/ijis AREA at : http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008
JAXA/ijis EXtent at: http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv
Topex has the ONLY comparison of SSMI & AMSR-E data on the same Graph: on row #2 from the Top: http://arctic-roos.org/forecasting-services/topaz/topaz-model-forecast
DMI & Norsex use SSMI, AMSR-E is NSIDC, JAXA/CRYO, Bremen (Bremen’s graphs also look like previous years were adjusted); note NSIDC still uses the old Algorithm.
Charles Wilson
September 3, 2010 3:28 am
Paul K2, Steve:
Paul=Z introduced a lot of Numbers, showing 3 inches = 7cm maximum melt, Steve countered that the Air could be replaced:
I figure:.
To replace the Air = 5000 miles at 20 mph = 10 days = 5 to 10 times in a Melt Season.
= 15 to 30 inches in a Melting Season.
But remember the LIMIT to how much moisture Air can take up, applies to this AND bright Sun sublimating the Ice to vapor.
>> They have to Share. << More, would force continuous Fog.
Let me repeat something cited by the 2007 Sea Ice update Redux: <http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/20071222/fob2.asp
" … About 70 cm of that shrinkage resulted from melting of the ice's upper surface-a typical amount for the summer, says Perovich. However, a whopping 2 m or so of that erosion, about five times the normal summer loss, occurred from below”.
…. so 30 inches = "70 cm from above", & does seem to be a "typical amount for the summer". At least the numbers hold up to scrutiny.
>> But: I don’t know how to tell WHICH process is doing the melting “from Above” !.
— For Newbies: Nearly half of Ice Loss — but WILDLY varying – – is “export” out of Fram Strait East of Greenland. When it gets into the Atlantic, it Melts.
The Winds were pushing it BACK in July, so Even though they REVERSED in mid August, and A LOT is moving NOW, only a small part of the Whole is close enough to “escape” in even a Month. Thus with the heavy CLOUDS (in part, a symptom that the Air is INDEED pretty “Full Up”)
& low SURFACE air temps – – maybe — we have some thin ice forming. Or is it the Strong Winds that make it APPEAR to be adding Ice ? Big Storms in the Arctic this last Week & Now.. And they PUSH the Pack.
This results in the several measures of Area & Extent bouncing Up & down a LOT lately.
So I cannot tell: how much is Which factor : Low) Local surface Air temp, Warm Winds, Strong Winds, or
Water temp (a big Squirt of heat in next to Svalbard which ironically has caused a LOW temp spot due to so much Melt, there. And it looks like the Pacific water is just about to impact the Westernmost Ice)
…>> My Guess is: all of the above.
Except the Sun: currently a Dead Letter.
But if it DOES come out – – will it just reflect off the Water ?? That would be ironic.
Jeff P
September 3, 2010 5:06 am
The final days of the 2010 melt season are here and the horse race is on.
2010 is the 9th year in the JAXA record. How will it place?
Today 2010 has 2005 beat leaving the Goddard Minimum far behind.
Let’s look at the standings.
2003 Min.: 6,041,250: Busted 8/14/10
2004 Min.: 5,784,688: Busted 8/19/10
2006 Min.: 5,781,719: Busted 8/19/10
2002 Min: 5,646,875: Busted 8/22/10
Goddard Min: 5,500,000: Busted 8/26/10
2005 Min: 5,315,156: Busted Today!!!
2009 Min:5,249,844: ???
This puts 2010 in the top four lowest sea ice extents in the JAXA record and there is still time on the clock.
Tim Clark
September 3, 2010 6:28 am
Using my highly refined analytical ability, I’ve determined there is still ice at the north pole. It has been sufficiently referenced in past threads that N polar ice has been quite minuscule in the recent past relative to current conditions (See sea ice news 1-19).
Don’t worry, be happy.
Looks like the arctic cap north of Svalbard is disintegrating, so spreading southwards and increasing the ice extent. It’ll probably re-freeze before much of it exits the chute.
The extraordinarily low ice extent on the east coast of Greenland bodes well for an early minimum. This area keeps on melting later than anywhere else.
I’d be shocked if it doesn’t drop any more, but it’s possible. Some areas are already freezing up.
Get some popcorn and enjoy the horse race.
I hope there isn’t any bad blood here over this triple point issue. It doesn’t appear that there is. It does look like some misunderstandings have happened. I hope that Steven Goddard will still be doing guest posts. His posts have been interesting. I know there have been flare ups from a few people over some of the things he has said. But flare ups are nothing new global warming.
Christian Steger says:
September 2, 2010 at 8:51 am
Yes, I believe you are correct: The DMI held steady because it has been snowing heavily. Wonder if it is also coming down hard in Greenland?
This link to the Aqua Satellite Maps:
http://exploreourpla.net/explorer/?map=Arc&sat=ter&lon=0&lat=89,9&lvl=4&yir=2010&dag=245
It’s rather difficult to see what’s going on down there due to all the clouds.
And this link to the Ice in Canadian waters:
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/Ice_Can/CMMBCTCA.gif
shows the NW passage getting iced up at key bottlenecks.
Strongly recommend this be added as a new thread!
Better translation and much more analysis needed, but preliminary data from the summary he provided indicate that the earlier “catastrophic Greenland/Anarctica ice field melting” from processed GRACE satellite data was wrong.
From above:
seven says:
September 2, 2010 at 7:29 am
Breaking news in The Netherlands, a big Dutch University (Delft University of Technology) has found that :
“Melting rate icecaps Greenland and Western Antarctica lower than expected
The melting of the ice sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica is about twice as slow as previously thought. The study, conducted by TU Delft, SRON and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The scientists published their findings in the September issue of Nature Geoscience. http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n9/index.html
Grace
The melting of ice sheets since 2002 is mapped with measurements of the two GRACE satellites. These detect from space small changes in the gravitational field of the earth. These changes are related to the exact distribution of mass on Earth, including ice and water. As ice melts and sea, is this influence in the gravity field.
rbateman
The Canadian Ice Service shows the Northwest Passage almost closed in parts of the McClure Straits. There is evidence there is anywhere from 40% to 80 % concentration of ice in those places. There is talk by some that the Northwest Passage is open. But they don’t have evidence for it. And a boat is stuck in the Northwest Passage.
Phil. says:
September 2, 2010 at 11:41 am
Your suspicions may be right, and I think they likely are, but it’s hard to say given the big disagreements in the different databases. NORSEX has 15% extent roughly equal to 2009 and area about halfway between 2008/2009. Bremen has 15% extent about halfway between 2008/2009. JAXA has 15% extent slightly lower than 2009, but well above 2008, while area is close to 2008, though slightly above.
What’s odd is that if area is well below 2009 while 15% extent is a touch under 2009, I’d expect the DMI 30% extent to be somewhere in between, but DMI’s 30% extent seems to give the highest rating for 2010 of all the measures, with it effectively tracking 2009 the last several days and being slightly above it today.
Overall, much of the ice does seem low concentration…not too surprising given the subpar starting point of the ice and the El Nino this year…the ice has taken a real beating. But I’m wondering if it’s too late in the season for it to have a precipitous drop, as temperatures are dropping and refreezing may begin to take place…only the next 1-3 weeks will tell.
Preliminary JAXA number for Sept 2 showed its biggest loss in the last 5 days: ~31000 km^2. If this number holds, then the ice is officially below 2005’s minimum…2009 is next and very close. After that, a huge amount (another 5.4e5 km^2 when the most lost in any year from here to the minimum is 362500 km^2) to lose to reach 2008.
-Scott
So, if I’m seeing this right, the reason Sea Ice #20 was closed is because of the heated argument that started. It is now over at Steven Goddard’s blog.
I remember Anthony said he wanted to lighten things up here at WUWT (my paraphrase). So with that in mind I could understand why he wanted the discussion to end here. And, contrary to what some have said, it looks like Steven Goddard is not ‘banned’ here but will still be posting here at WUWT.
So then, anytime a discussion that gets hot in a Steven Goddard post and is stopped because of it, which jeez, Mosher, Phil, and others turn them in to, it can always go over to his blog and continue there. It’s a quick click to get there. Wow! That works! 🙂 And I think there will be some good fruit come of it over there. It’s a win-win!
Great idea Anthony! Chalk one up for Anthony Watts!
Arctic Sea Ice 2010 – Good to see the Recovery continueing in full swing again this year, the NW Passage closed all summer, and temperatures at the pole under freezing!
(Do I sense a slight tension here between the Master and Oracle Goddard who, we were lead to believe, recently voluntarily left the Village to start his own community? Was the Oracle in reality sent into exile?)
Amino Acids, finally you are right about something being closed ! 🙂
The area at Cryosphere is very low,
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png
and the anomaly in the Antarctic is now roughly 0,
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.antarctic.png
so how does that show up on rbateman’s black and white anomaly graph comparison?
Drop of 30 000 today, with area dropping and extent currently staying level it will be interesting to see what happens in the next week or so.
Andy
Village Idiot said
September 2, 2010 at 9:58 pm
Arctic Sea Ice 2010 – Good to see the Recovery continueing in full swing again this year, the NW Passage closed all summer, and temperatures at the pole under freezing!
_____________________________________________
I don’t think anyone will fall for your trap of stating the complete opposite of what actually happened this year just to make an argument 😉
Andy
Scott says:
September 2, 2010 at 9:31 pm
DMI’s 30% extent seems to give the highest rating for 2010 of all the measures….. Overall, much of the ice does seem low concentration…
That is a contradiction.
The reason DMi is high compared to the others is because almost all of the ice is at a high concentration. 30% concentration being so different could be a sign of cooling in the earth.
Arctic ice is not rotted and alarmingly thin as some claim. Mostly the edge around the ice is at low concentration making it susceptible to winds and temperature. It’s normally like that. That makes it highly variable. And that will make the difference in the graphs.
There is the hypothesis that Arctic Ice in the Beaufort Sea is rotted by manmade emissions. But no evidence has been presented that proves ice in the Beaufort Sea is any different than it has been in the past, say 50, or 100 years ago. Until evidence come along that ice in the Beaufort Sea is different than it has been at other times the rotted ice hypothesis is just a hypothesis; just another one of many hypothesis’ about global warming that has no proof.
AndyW
Your comment comes out of the blue. We are familiar how? What am I right about being closed? Your comment, honestly, is incoherent. What are you saying? What are those graphs supposed to be telling us, the readers?
This is the McClure Straits in the Canadian Ice Service image from today.
http://img704.imageshack.us/img704/7818/9310cmmbctcacrop.jpg
This is the evidence. The Northwest Passage is not open.
hey guys… I am commenting up a storm on Arctic ice over at Goddard’s place as Zinfan94. But I am the only one there! Come over, and join in.
He now claims the warm winds are melting the ice pack… he won’t accept any other explanation for ice melt except thermal energy carried into the ice pack by warm winds. This theory depends on air temperatures being significantly (10-15 deg F) above freezing, so it appears that Steven Goddard now believes that Arctic surface temperatures are much higher than freezing.
He seems to have bought into the GISS extrapolation of warmer surface air temperatures across the Arctic. Comments?
RACookPE1978 –
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/09/03/amazing-grace-part-3/
Paul K2
Paul,
Relax. You’re breathless.
AndyW says:
September 2, 2010 at 10:02 pm
so how does that show up on rbateman’s black and white anomaly graph comparison?
You rang? It would be nice to have been requested in the 1st person.
Nevertheless:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/seaice.anomaly.Ant_arctic.jpg
The composite of Arctic/Antartic Sea Ice Anomaly graphs courtesy of Cyrosphere Today shows a musical duet.
A product only of numerical coincidence, these 2 anomalies wander in and out of step like 2 clocks on different frequencies.
Both are fully within thier respective ranges of trend. Somewhere around 6 months ago, they touched each other, meeting at a mind-boggling and stupendoulsy amazing Global Average of -0.25 M sq km.
A really big deal, for in early 2009 they were inverted to what they are today, with the Arctic at min and Antarctic at max.
Hey, isn’t this like, you know, predictable stuff?
Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
September 2, 2010 at 10:33 pm
I suppose the NW Passage is open today if you are at the helm of an Icebreaker.
Can you imagine the nightmares that the Cruise Ship Captain gets over that close encounter with rocks last month in the NW Passage? That’s got to be one sickening crunch. No word on whether the crippled ship can be retrieved before the Ice claims it as another trophy ship.
Jeez,
I understand your constraints. But you are being most unreasonable here. And don’t launch into a diatribe against me like you did the last time.
This is a blog….not a peer reviewed journal. I certainly appreciate your intellect and have learned the ropes (the hard way) on this blog.
But for you to throw the steven goddard baby out with the bathwater is just not right, is distasteful, and rather unscientific.
I realize I run the risk of becoming myself snipped and censored and if it is a problem you can always email me at sharkhearted@gmail.com
I personally appreciated steven’s sea ice posts. They may not have been perfect but they were not necessarily wrong either.
He has a style about reporting that is very brief and to the point.
For you guys to ban him because he is broaching a “forbidden” subject is just ridiculous.
All the great minds on here need to figure out how to work together and solve problems rather than degenerating into un-evolved ape-like battles of raw ego.
Hey, we all do it, but that don’t make it right.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Reply: Steven is not banned. He is just not going to be a contributing author. I may have to back read this thread to see if I’ve missed something. ~ ctm
… a NEW phenomena is running — or about to start up: low angle Sun / Oceanic REFRACTION. Or actually: two:
1. At the Ocean Surface, a very low angle ray can be even more likely to reflect off the SEA, than even bright white Ice.
2. Above the surface, Sunlight refracts over the Horizon even if it the Sun is technically Set. See: http://www.eh2r.com/
Either of these could be VERY significant. If, that is, the Sun ever returns !
… I have 3 new calculations of ___ THE DAY THE SUN RETURNS – –
the 5th, 12th or 19th, based on the time delay for High pressure to return – – times the strength of the El Nino relative to 2007’s.
This is because the 2010’s El Nino was 1.64 times the rating of 2007’s (1.8/1.1) so CLOUDS would be generated IN PROPORTION (& then take longer to get wiped out by the La Nina — again see Wayne Davidson’s site, above) . 2007 seems to have slowed melt in May/early June for 5-6 weeks – – this year’s El Nino was a “Modoki” which lasts ~ 2 months longer, so the CLOUDS arrived on June 28 … so I am “trying” 3 Methods: #1 = June 29 + 6 weeks times the El Nino ratio (1.8/1.1=1.64) … Method #2m = 5 weeks times the ratio, PLUS 33% for El Nino “Modoki” that last longer, … Method #3 = 6 weeks times (1.8/1.1) + 33%
– – it makes sense that if there are more Clouds, it takes longer for the New La Nina to dry them out.
MAYBE this will work for Upcoming years. AS you may know, the EXTREME Outlook [ = ZERO Ice ] came from Me – – BUT, as I said, If I am wrong, it will be the Clouds”. Not one of the Experts could tell me – – even STEVE – – what the Clouds would do. So I made up my Own theory … OK, I actually just Hijakked Wayne’s Theory – – & added two “tweaks” : his reasoning is fine, but he was unaware of “Modoki” – – which delayed the El NINO/La NINA switch to JULY, KILLING THE BEST MELTING MONTH, and, that there were more Clouds (1.64 times, or maybe +33% = 2.2 TIMES, though offset by the fact the La Nina is itself a kind of “rebound” effect, & as such, one after a Modoki should be STRONGER — & this one looks like FIMBUL WINTER is coming (La Ninas are COLD).
On the subject of Ice Area, there is a SECOND Area number Source, at Nansen, the Parent of the Arctic Roos/Norsex Quad of graphs.
Look on the Bottom of the Page. The number for All-time Minimum has apparently been increased 10% to account for a new Algorithm, if the NSIDC explanation that the new Algorithms may be better, yet invalidate comparisons to previous years, has been heard & provoked a re-calculation of the Old figures ( 2010 Norsex Daily Area seems to match the 2010 Nansen Daily number precisely).
Compare Nansen & JAXA/Cryosphere numbers:
(taking Older Nansen Numbers off the Arctic Roos graph)
Year: ___________ 2007 _____ 2008 _____ 2009 ______ 2010
Nansen/Norsex: ___ 3.62 ______ 3.90 ______ 4.27 _______ 4.350662
Cryo / ijis ______ 2.9194391 __ 3.0035558 __ 3.4265975 ___ 3.2508845
Last 4 days N. :___ +_ 9,124___ -29,380.0 ___ -33,505.7 ___ +45,367.4
Last 4 days Cry___-143,476___ – 29,903.9___ + _4,424____ -71,642.4
# to Min. Nansen = __ 1006 K ___450 K _____ 80 K__(K = 1,000km2)
# to Min (Cryo) = ___ 332 K ___ 245 K ____ -180 K _(Min=MINimum)
# To Go to Min(Na) =__17 % ____ 10 % _____ 2 %
# To Go ( Cryo )___=__10 % _____ 8 % _____ PASSED ( by 5 %)
– – Obviously, these are two SERIOUSLY DIFFERENT area measures.
Perhaps that is why, for the Extent numbers, only ONE (the Jaxa) is published
#ToGo EXTENT = __ 19.5% ____11.2% _____ 0.2 % (JAXA)
Nansen AREA at http://www.nersc.no/main/index2.php — note Link: to Norsex via SSMI
Cryo/ijis AREA at : http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008
JAXA/ijis EXtent at: http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv
Topex has the ONLY comparison of SSMI & AMSR-E data on the same Graph: on row #2 from the Top: http://arctic-roos.org/forecasting-services/topaz/topaz-model-forecast
DMI & Norsex use SSMI, AMSR-E is NSIDC, JAXA/CRYO, Bremen (Bremen’s graphs also look like previous years were adjusted); note NSIDC still uses the old Algorithm.
Paul K2, Steve:
Paul=Z introduced a lot of Numbers, showing 3 inches = 7cm maximum melt, Steve countered that the Air could be replaced:
I figure:.
To replace the Air = 5000 miles at 20 mph = 10 days = 5 to 10 times in a Melt Season.
= 15 to 30 inches in a Melting Season.
But remember the LIMIT to how much moisture Air can take up, applies to this AND bright Sun sublimating the Ice to vapor.
>> They have to Share. << More, would force continuous Fog.
Let me repeat something cited by the 2007 Sea Ice update Redux: <http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/20071222/fob2.asp
" … About 70 cm of that shrinkage resulted from melting of the ice's upper surface-a typical amount for the summer, says Perovich. However, a whopping 2 m or so of that erosion, about five times the normal summer loss, occurred from below”.
…. so 30 inches = "70 cm from above", & does seem to be a "typical amount for the summer". At least the numbers hold up to scrutiny.
>> But: I don’t know how to tell WHICH process is doing the melting “from Above” !.
— For Newbies: Nearly half of Ice Loss — but WILDLY varying – – is “export” out of Fram Strait East of Greenland. When it gets into the Atlantic, it Melts.
The Winds were pushing it BACK in July, so Even though they REVERSED in mid August, and A LOT is moving NOW, only a small part of the Whole is close enough to “escape” in even a Month. Thus with the heavy CLOUDS (in part, a symptom that the Air is INDEED pretty “Full Up”)
& low SURFACE air temps – – maybe — we have some thin ice forming. Or is it the Strong Winds that make it APPEAR to be adding Ice ? Big Storms in the Arctic this last Week & Now.. And they PUSH the Pack.
This results in the several measures of Area & Extent bouncing Up & down a LOT lately.
So I cannot tell: how much is Which factor : Low) Local surface Air temp, Warm Winds, Strong Winds, or
Water temp (a big Squirt of heat in next to Svalbard which ironically has caused a LOW temp spot due to so much Melt, there. And it looks like the Pacific water is just about to impact the Westernmost Ice)
…>> My Guess is: all of the above.
Except the Sun: currently a Dead Letter.
But if it DOES come out – – will it just reflect off the Water ?? That would be ironic.
The final days of the 2010 melt season are here and the horse race is on.
2010 is the 9th year in the JAXA record. How will it place?
Today 2010 has 2005 beat leaving the Goddard Minimum far behind.
Let’s look at the standings.
2003 Min.: 6,041,250: Busted 8/14/10
2004 Min.: 5,784,688: Busted 8/19/10
2006 Min.: 5,781,719: Busted 8/19/10
2002 Min: 5,646,875: Busted 8/22/10
Goddard Min: 5,500,000: Busted 8/26/10
2005 Min: 5,315,156: Busted Today!!!
2009 Min:5,249,844: ???
This puts 2010 in the top four lowest sea ice extents in the JAXA record and there is still time on the clock.
Using my highly refined analytical ability, I’ve determined there is still ice at the north pole. It has been sufficiently referenced in past threads that N polar ice has been quite minuscule in the recent past relative to current conditions (See sea ice news 1-19).
Don’t worry, be happy.
Jeff P,
Compare my forecast vs. NSIDC
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adXkVq8aVUg&NR=1]
Mine is looking almost perfect.