By Steve Goddard
Arctic Ice (red line above) has dropped just below my June forecast (dashed line.) Over the last two weeks, strong southerly winds reminiscent of 2007 have compacted and melted significant amounts of ice. The modified NSIDC image below shows ice loss over the last week, in red.
The break in the weather can be easily seen in the DMI temperature graph, as a sharp upwards spike two weeks ago.
The NCEP forecast calls for colder and calmer weather during the next two weeks, so ice loss should drop off quickly.
The DMI 30% concentration graph has already flattened, and is running even with 2009.
The modified NSIDC image below shows ice gain over 2007 in green, and loss in red.
PIOMAS continues to overestimate (red) ice loss by a substantial margin. Green shows areas where they underestimated ice loss.
It continues to look like my June forecast will be close to correct, though as we have seen – this contest is a crap shoot. It all depends on the wind.
Julienne Strove from NSIDC asked last week what it would take to be convinced of man’s influence. I will respond with a question of my own. What does it take to prove that changes in the wind are driven by changes in CO2?
Extra bonus : Does anyone see a familiar pattern (below) in Greenland temperatures? What year did satellites monitoring the Arctic come on line?
Enquiring minds want to know.
Is anyone going to complain about how bad the PIOMAS forecast is? You know, that elephant in the room.
Stephen Wilde says:
August 31, 2010 at 5:04 pm
I think you should cut Steve some slack here.
That’s not in their cards. But I see Mark Surreze is getting all the slack with plenty left over in reserve.
Jon P says:
September 1, 2010 at 6:49 am
My final word.
All my statements were accurate and I stand behind them. If people have difficulty understanding simple truths, that is there problem.
________________________
Unfortunately they are not, I showed that earlier, Steve has changed his forecast downwards as he has all right to do, similar to the “scientists” are doing. His initial estimate is better than some of those scientists, but that is beside the point. You were wrong and rather than admit it try to put the blame on other folk by saying “it is their problem .
I tend to agree with JeffP and Phil here. From very early in the year both Anthony and Steve didn’t dispell the fact there would be another large recovery this year, around 5.8 or so. So it was suprising Steve eventually came out with 5.5. After that he passed more than one comment on it being an underestimate, so obviously that was the lower limit.
The whole recovery scenario seems to have not been confirmed this year and instread it looks very much like 2o10 is simply walking back from 2010 to the general downwards trend,
Andy
back from 2007 of course .. on a works conference call and doing something more interesting as a multitask .. don’t know what I said to them, apart from “can you repeat that?” 😀
Andy
Well jeez if Andy says so it must be true.
Yes Steven said 5.1 after it went below 5.5, but that was never my point. In the context of Jeff P. lie of: “You’ve certainly changed your tune from earlier in the year when you were saying that your prediction of 5.5 million K^2 was too conservative and the minimum would be much higher.”
I know you have difficulty understaning the meaning of the above starting with the word and and especially the “would be”. That sentence exactly means that Jeff P is stating that Steven changed his 5.5 prediction to something higher. It is your problem if you do not understand that.
Guess it was not my final word, but when Andy makes false statements about me I’ll continue.
Quick JAXA update…
The revised number for 08/31 is up now and the extent is 9375 km^2 higher than previously posted. This puts the daily loss at 18906 km^2 and thus slightly lower than the 2002-2009 average (22402 km^2).
The rest of my numbers from early can be adjusted by adding ~10000 km^2 to each.
So where does the ice go from here? If it loses similarly to 2005/2007/2008, we’ll end near 5.0e6 km^2. If it loses similarly to 2004, we’ll see a finish close to 5.2e6 km^2. If it behaves like the other years in the JAXA record, it’ll finish around 5.1e6 km^2.
Is anyone willing to speculate on either a record low or high loss from here on to put it above 2009 or as low as 4.9e6 km^2? That would take some guts…any takers? If the recent slowdown in loss is mostly due to reduced melting/early refreezing, it’s possible to still finish about 2009. If, however, it’s due entirely to divergence/spreading and we see “bad” weather for the next few weeks, I would say 4.9e6 km^2 is also easily possible.
-Scott
Again, JAXA is almost exactly where I forecast in June.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zq1-9GRfN14]
AndyW,
My June forecast is currently off by 3%. NSIDC’s July forecast is currently off by 11%.
Thickness has increased since 2009. Ice age has increased since 2009. Volume has increased since 2009.
Based on the current weather forecast, I am almost ready to stick a fork in this melt season. There isn’t going to be a lot more action this summer.
stevengoddard says:
September 1, 2010 at 10:01 am
AndyW,
My June forecast is currently off by 3%. NSIDC’s July forecast is currently off by 11%.
NSIDC’s June forecast was the same as your’s, it also remained unchanged in July.
“Prediction by Stroeve et al. shown in the June outlook remains unchanged since it was based on spring ice age fields and an average summer circulation pattern. An alternative method is based on daily rates of decline from July 1 until the minimum is reached. Using average rates of decline based on data from 1979-2000 gives a minimum extent to be significantly lower than the 5.5 million square kilometers earlier forecasted by Stroeve et al.”
Their August forecast was 5.0 as opposed to your 5.1, since the minimum has not yet been reached so it’s impossible to evaluate the July forecasts except that Stroeve’s will be exactly the same as yours and Meier’s is likely to improve whereas yours will likely get worse. Regarding the August forecasts it’s too close to call.
Steve,
Obviously, you need to go back to school lest you continue to embarrass yourself.
you posted in answer to the question I posed as to what is the pressure of the triple point of water.
“The ocean is at 1 bar atmospheric pressure. That is how it is defined.
We did learn a little about phase diagrams in my graduate school geochemistry program. ”
from here,
http://www.sv.vt.edu/classes/MSE2094_NoteBook/96ClassProj/examples/triple.html
the triple point of water is 0.01 C and 0.006 barr
bob,
The behaviour of water shows almost no variation between 0.1 bar and 10 bars.
http://www.sv.vt.edu/classes/MSE2094_NoteBook/96ClassProj/pics/941.jpg
Obviously water exists in all three phases during the Arctic summer – solid liquid and gas. That is what a triple point means.
You need to consider the log scale on the phase diagram.
Bob,
You are talking about partial vapor pressure. That’s what is 0.006 atmospheres, not the actual total pressure, lol.
stevengoddard said:
September 1, 2010 at 10:01 am
AndyW,
My June forecast is currently off by 3%. NSIDC’s July forecast is currently off by 11%.
____________________
Yes, you are closest to the mark still and that should not be forgotten when people talk about being “busted”. You are high but the general concensus was too low and NSIDC quite a lot low. My 4.9 was too low also but closer than your 5.5. However I think I went down to 4.7 early on, I forget, too long ago!
I think the main thing to consider here is that there is no recovery though at the end of the day in 2o10, that is the real deal.
Andy
Jon P said:
September 1, 2010 at 9:20 am
Well jeez if Andy says so it must be true.
Yes Steven said 5.1 after it went below 5.5, but that was never my point. In the context of Jeff P. lie of: “You’ve certainly changed your tune from earlier in the year when you were saying that your prediction of 5.5 million K^2 was too conservative and the minimum would be much higher.”
I know you have difficulty understaning the meaning of the above starting with the word and and especially the “would be”. That sentence exactly means that Jeff P is stating that Steven changed his 5.5 prediction to something higher. It is your problem if you do not understand that.
Guess it was not my final word, but when Andy makes false statements about me I’ll continue.
________________________________
My only statement against you is that you claimed
“Steven discussed about conditions that could affect his prediction one way or another, all summer. He never changed his 5.5 number”
Which is patently false, Steve said he did change to 5.1.
You then said
“Guess it was not my final word, but when Andy makes false statements about me I’ll continue.”
I didn’t make false statements about you, I just quoted you. And you said “He never changed his 5.5 number”. And Steve’s number is now 5.1 as it a better summary of current estimate. So you were wrong, you didn’t do enough research.
Your over the top defensive behaviour doesn’t help your cause either, it just shows you up.
Andy
Definition of triple point
“the point on a phase diagram at which all three states of a substance are present”
http://www.learnchem.net/glossary/t.shtml
Here is a photo which should help your understanding. You can see all three phases of water present.
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/webphotos/noaa1.jpg
Jon P says:
September 1, 2010 at 9:20 am
I know you have difficulty understaning the meaning of the above starting with the word and and especially the “would be”. That sentence exactly means that Jeff P is stating that Steven changed his 5.5 prediction to something higher. It is your problem if you do not understand that.
I guess your problem was that you didn’t understand the meaning of “changed his tune” and the references to “conservative” and “too conservative”.
A summer after an El Nino you would expect a lower minium of Arctic ice then the previous year without one. I made this forecast a year ago (not on here) when it become obvious an El Nino was on it’s way and could be at least moderate strength. This is down to the energy transfer via ocean and atmosphere from this Pacific region to the pole.
BUT, so far is only just beating 2009 (even level) and still could finish level or slightly above (possible), depending on the data source with not long to go now. Though the main issue is very little difference between the two years despite an significant El Nino, is a sign of continuation from the recovering ice since 2007. Previous recent El Ninos have shown a much bigger decline of Arctic ice, so this much less reduced senario just enhances this evidence.
With a La Nina developing which now looks likely to be a strong event, next year will likely see an Arctic summer ice minium higher than 2009 and 2010. The cooler circulation will reach the pole for the summer melting period of 2011.
Andy “Your over the top defensive behaviour doesn’t help your cause either, it just shows you up.
Pot meet Kettle
stevengoddard says:
September 1, 2010 at 11:34 am
bob,
The behaviour of water shows almost no variation between 0.1 bar and 10 bars.
http://www.sv.vt.edu/classes/MSE2094_NoteBook/96ClassProj/pics/941.jpg
Obviously water exists in all three phases during the Arctic summer – solid liquid and gas. That is what a triple point means.
But they can only exist simultaneously at one specific Temperature and vapor pressure, that is what the triple point is: 4.58 torr/0.61 kPa, 0.0098ºC for water.
Regarding your education regarding phase diagrams hopefully it has advanced in the last year when you asserted quite vehemently the following canard:
Steven Goddard says:
June 10, 2009 at 10:42 am
Phil,
2-D Phase diagrams refer to atmospheric or ambient pressure, not vapor pressure or partial pressure. Why don’t you censor yourself instead of spreading nonsense?
Which if you were correct would mean that there would be no observable triple point on this planet for water.
Phil.
You must be highly incensed about the changes NSIDC has made to their ice forecasts this summer. 5.5/4.74/5.0
Tell your waitress not to put ice in your glass, because you believe water can’t exist in all three phases at the same time.
Quoting Steven Goddard,
No Steven, it is good that we have people who can call out, identify, and rebut pseudo-scientific sophistry.. It is important to remember that if you drown out a signal with meaningless noise you might keep real information and discussion, the kind adults should be having, from being understood.
OMG Steven, stop talking before you embarrass yourself even further. Something I wouldn’t think possible. Phil. will be taking you to the wood shed for that one.
No need to wait for Phil. I’ll do it.
http://www.physlink.com/education/askexperts/ae282.cfm
Question:
How can water co-exist at three phases (solid, liquid and gas)?
Answer:
Water exists in three distinct phases at something called the triple point. Zero degrees celsius is defined by the triple point of water which is 273.16K at 611.2 Pa.
At this temperature water is in the process of changing from a solid state into the liquid phase or visa versa. Molecules in the liquid phase can lose a bit of energy and solidify whilst solid water (ice) can gain some energy and melt. This can be seen in melting ice where the solid ice exists for some time while the exposed surface melts.
Molecules in a liquid don’t all have the same energy. The energies of the molecules can vary from a finite minimum, which would mark the transition back to a solid phases, up to an infinite energy (although the probability of this occuring is infinitely small). The average energy of the molecules gives us the temperature of the liquid. Statistical thermodynamics can map out the energy distribution of the water molecules. At a certain energy molecules will have enough energy to evaporate, even if the water temperature is 0 degrees C.
Because of these two effects it is possible for the water to exist as solid, liquid and gas at the same time.
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More:
http://www.sv.vt.edu/classes/MSE2094_NoteBook/96ClassProj/examples/triplpt.html
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And a video from a lab here:
http://www.metacafe.com/watch/658122/the_triple_point_of_water_experiment/
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Steven, you really need to stop.
Triple point Shrimple point…Will that Knowledge help you figure out when the Arctic Ice will stop melting?…I measure 8 temps at 77 north around the Arctic that have been Poo pawed because they are land based stations but since all of them are coastal stations & are close enough to the Ocean I have been able to find that at an ave of 34 degrees the ice loss slows to a drip….Too boring for you all but Sweet Science to me!…I’m sticking to my Small Mind/Small Town prediction made back on Aug 23rd for a leveling off of Ice melt after the end of Aug & slowing to a drip after the 6th of Sept. (Predict was based on long range GFS weather model)
That may be too complicated Anthony. Here is a simplified explanation:
When you have a glass containing water and ice, it is unlikely that it is simultaneously boiling.