By Steve Goddard
NCEP has changed their forecast, and it now appears there will be above normal temperatures over the Beaufort Sea for the next few days.
This will cause continued melt of the low concentration ice, and a downwards drift of the extent line. Daily loss has been declining steadily over the last month, but not enough to keep extent above my 5.5 million JAXA forecast.
Looks like it will be close at the finish line between 2009 and 2010 for JAXA 15%.
The DMI 30% concentration graph looks like 2010 will probably finish ahead of 2009.
Average ice thickness is highest since 2007 and 10% higher than 2009. Hinting at a 10% increase in ice volume next spring relative to 2010.
Barring 2007 style winds, next spring should see a third straight year of recovery since the winter of 2007-2008, when much of the thick ice blew out of the Arctic and melted in the North Atlantic.
Remember the “rotten ice” in 2008, which led to Mark Serreze betting on an ice free North Pole that summer? Looks like we have come a long way since then. Here is what the North Pole looks like today :
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Phil, Jeez..
Since you introduced Dr Barber into the discussion.
This is what Dr Barber said in Sept 2009 (Greenbang 30 Nov 2009)
“Ship navigation across the pole is imminent as the type of ice which resides there is no longer a barrier to ships in the late summer and fall,” Barber said.
You argue that there was no implication that rotten ice existed at the pole (by arguing that the picture taken by Dr Barber was a thousand miles away from the pole), please explain the comment made by Dr Barber before you lambast Steve Goddard in your particularly rude manner.
jeez,
there was a time period for some months last year when Steven Goddard didn’t post here. I think he resumed here in January of this year. The post about David Barber is from one month earlier, December 2009. So in fairness you could take that into account. It very well could be he wasn’t aware of that particular post. It’s easy to miss individual post. I was away for three days last July and was not aware of the Buzz Aldrin post that came during that time. So, I commented in ‘Tips & Notes’ about it Buzz Aldrin. Someone (rudely, and his name still stands out to me sometimes when I see it in comments, ‘oh ya, that guy’) informed me it was already a post. Things like that happen.
Amino acids, really? have you become that sensitive that if someone says the Northern Sea Route will be open again this year (which is simply an observation) that you automatically jump to alarmism? It is simply a statement that 3 years in a row the NSR is open.
Roger, that is sad to hear that you believe all climate scientists and their institutions are bad to the bone. I wonder do you believe Drs Spencer, Lindzen, Singer and many others also lie? They too are climate scientists who have worked or are still working in a climatological establishment.
Phil. says:
August 24, 2010 at 3:03 pm
Instead, he gets rude…..You appear to be confusing me with Goddard
Back to that I’m rubber you’re glue thing you do.
Bill Illis says:
August 24, 2010 at 4:00 pm
To lighten the mood, jeez’ “Baby Ice” is now going to make it through the terrible twos and will be a rotten adolescent soon.
So 3 is like 14 in human years? 😉
stevengoddard says:
August 24, 2010 at 4:07 pm
That is exactly what I said in the article. I can’t (and don’t have any interest) in reading Phil, Mosher, or anybody else’s mind.
But it seems they feel they’re reading your mind.
hmmm. From the posts, it appears to be less than 1 mm but more than a micrometer. Which is a rather large difference in meter-speak. Carry on.
Julienne Stroeve says:
August 24, 2010 at 4:34 pm
What would it take for you to believe that human activities are influencing the climate system and components of it such as the Arctic sea ice cover?
My o my, there’s a whole lot of scientists you could ask that of.
Roger Knights, I envy you. I wish I had such strong beliefs. It must be comforting.
“Pamela Gray says:
August 24, 2010 at 6:05 pm
What we should be doing while the navel lint grows in our belly buttons till the second week in September is discussing my stupendously good venison soup and the fact that I don’t know exactly how I made it. Especially since I was both sauced and marinated WHILE I made it (hey, I cook with a lot of beer, wine and sherry, so sue me).
“
I agree, but I think the best method is to really get “sauced and marinated” again and try again!.
I think all along arctic ice is a red herring. we discuss this as “climate change” when antarctica is colder then a witch’s … um well you know… And we ignore a hemisphere when it suits our purposes, but what the heck? Lets argue for evidence in climate change on one aspect out of 50 that MIGHT show difference…and the fact that it can be argued just points to how bad of a thing this is to use as the posterchild of Alarmism.
I am all for predicting this, and the discussion is fun and all, but I think we all agree the best comparisons are from low to low or wave to wave…so the only measurement so to speak is the max/min. Not that I do not enjoy the back and forthness, you guys are really something researching so much..just remember to keep it civil, once it gets uncivil we start to lose focus that this is just a discussion…and we should discuss the weather more
Oh wait, we are lol…maybe we should discuss soup recipes while sauced instead!
Pamela Gray said on August 24, 2010 at 6:05 pm:
Delicious.
The only reason 5.5 is out now is because of the 300,000 km2 loss last week that was caused by winds. And Steven Goddard has said all along that winds could make 5.5 not happen.
But wait, I already know some of you will say the 300,000 km2 loss happened because the ice is rotted and alarmingly thin. And you base that theory on data from 1979 to 2007. I already know that. So no need to tell me again about your wonderful time period that all other time periods in the history of the world are judged by.
Julienne,
In point three I was referring to our lack of understanding regarding the Sun’s relationship and the temperature of our planet.
We know it is not zero and we know it isn’t 100%. So exactly how much does solar activity affect the plannet’s temperature?
There has been much discussion involving the slight warming of other planets.
I can sympathize with your point #4. I’m not a paleoclimatologist and the reconstruction of temperatures from various climate indicators” seems not to be an easy task. I would expect revisions to temperature reconstructions
But would you expect them to always cool the past and warm the present? That seems odd to me.
And I don’t think that is actually the stated reason for the consistent cooling of the past.
I would add another point… when someone can prove to me what causes an ice age. This would be a person who has my full attention.
I would like someone to also show that the wobble of the earth has no impact on the planet’s temperature.
And I think Roger was referring to the “establishment”.
Meanwhile in other news, the “Great Summer of 2010” on the US East Coast now appears to have been “The Great Early Indian Summer Block of 2010.” Now the early fall pattern is obvious. Same deal in Europe. And on the West Coast … our year without a Summer is fait accompli. We’re having our normal Fall offshore wind event(s) now, and by the weekend, -15C aloft will assert itself and that’s all she wrote.
stevengoddard says:
August 24, 2010 at 5:34 pm
Apparently I made a mistake attributing the “rotten ice” term to an NSIDC publication.
I have to hand it to you Steven, you come out quickly and don’t obfuscate. Not only with saying that but this post was a quick admittance that 5.5 isn’t going to happen.
I can see that the possibility of the ice flattening like it did in 2006 could make you wait until the last moment to say 5.5 is out. These comments about you dancing around, and making excuses, things seem to be coming from the emotions of the commenters making them.
5.5 is out, and you’re not making excuses.
Good on ya man!
The only reason 5.5 is out now is because of the 300,000 km2 loss last week that was caused by winds.
The only reason 3.5 is out now is because of the meagre decline rates in July and the first weeks of August that were caused by a sudden switch to low-pressure areas dominating the Arctic, causing cloudiness, low temperatures and the reversing of the Beaufort Gyre and the Transpolar Drift Stream.
mjk,
Check my comment again, please. I said I would warm my children’s behinds, not Phils, for lack of respect. As for Phil, I’ve lost all respect for him, and though I have in the past supported the AGW theory, the behavior of Phil and several others in the AGW movement have pretty much driven me off.
Whether you, Mr. Gates, Julienne, mecago or others who support AGW admit it or not, the bad manners, lack of respect, hidden data, massaged data, and dirty tricks of some in the AGW movement have turned many people off. Frankly, I can hardly stand to even read your comments any more. That is how disgusting I find the AGW crowd these days. Reprehensible IS the word.
Julienne Stroeve says:
August 24, 2010 at 6:18 pm
Amino acids, really? have you become that sensitive that if someone says the Northern Sea Route will be open again this year (which is simply an observation) that you automatically jump to alarmism? It is simply a statement that 3 years in a row the NSR is open.
Ok, so then what was the reason?
Julienne,
you say you are not an alarmist but you also say this:
It is the data that has slowly convinced me over the last decade that human activities are affecting our climate, not the climate models. And I do not consider myself an alarmist because I think human activities play a role….And it doesn’t matter so much to me if you believe that our activities can affect our climate. There are so many reasons to move away from our dependence on fossil fuels
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/18/arctic-toolbox-did-300000-km2-of-ice-suddenly-melt/#more-23608
Why would you say humankind needs to change if nothing alarming is going to happen if we don’t. Could I categorize you as passive aggressive about global warming alarm?
J.Knight
Hear hear.
Pamela Gray says:
August 24, 2010 at 5:57 pm
You make a point there.
While whistling away over a whittled model of a microcosm, the big picture of Glacial/Interglacial is not well understood.
Reminds me a lot of the paint-peeling predictions prior to SC24.
Nature will eventually let us know how important the gnats ass was.
storm in a teacup. nsidc used the term rotten ice here-
http://nsidc.org/data/docs/noaa/g02159_ponds/index.html
its a 8/2008 document, but revised in 2009, so who knows.
the behavior of Phil and several others in the AGW movement have pretty much driven me off.
I have never really looked at the science, you know, but I’ve noticed skeptics smell from their armpits, and that’s why I’ve decided that AGW will be catastrophic.
The bad smell that emanates from skeptic armpits have turned many people off. They are now all rabid alarmists.
There’s no amount of deodorant that will make me change my mind. AGW will kill the planet. My reasoning is just as sound, balanced and logical as that of Knight and Knights.
Would you say a fair amount of vulnerable ice melting at the margins of the Arctic Basin would be “significant” ?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/15/sea-ice-news-18/#comment-458209
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/15/sea-ice-news-18/#comment-458222
How about after the JAXA extent drops below your 5.5 million sq km prediction, and keeps on dropping below 2009’s 5,249,844 sq km, making your prediction wrong?
Would you call such melt “significant” then ?
Günther says: “I have never really looked at the science, you know…”
I am convinced of that, Günther. We’re on the same page in that regard.
So Günther’s mind is made up, and by his own admission it can never be changed, no matter what.