By Steve Goddard
NCEP has changed their forecast, and it now appears there will be above normal temperatures over the Beaufort Sea for the next few days.
This will cause continued melt of the low concentration ice, and a downwards drift of the extent line. Daily loss has been declining steadily over the last month, but not enough to keep extent above my 5.5 million JAXA forecast.
Looks like it will be close at the finish line between 2009 and 2010 for JAXA 15%.
The DMI 30% concentration graph looks like 2010 will probably finish ahead of 2009.
Average ice thickness is highest since 2007 and 10% higher than 2009. Hinting at a 10% increase in ice volume next spring relative to 2010.
Barring 2007 style winds, next spring should see a third straight year of recovery since the winter of 2007-2008, when much of the thick ice blew out of the Arctic and melted in the North Atlantic.
Remember the “rotten ice” in 2008, which led to Mark Serreze betting on an ice free North Pole that summer? Looks like we have come a long way since then. Here is what the North Pole looks like today :
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I don’t know if anyone noticed the large pull back from the Siberian coast today in the AMSR-E imagery. Looks like the Northern Sea Route is likely going to be open again this year.
“REPLY: Phil. is an academic at a major university, rudeness is one of his regular traits here. – Anthony”
Mr Watts, I think that was an inappropriate remark, especially since you’re the owner here.
I understand at the moment you will be disappointed with the fact that there was no recovery of Arctic sea ice this year.
I’ve talked to and dealt with quite a few academics in my life. Your experience might have been different, but in these days a rude person will find himself of herself out of academic work in no time.
I also wonder if “phil” has given his consent to any release of his personal details?
REPLY: Oh please. Citing a “academic at a major university” is not “personal details”. Every wordpress commenter (including your comment, with IP sourced in Finland) posts an IP address with each comment. Virtually every blog is the same way. IP addresses are logged with comments, just like any visit to a web server, and any blog owner can look up the owner using a wide variety of freely available tools. And yes, I do think Phil. is often rude in his comments, some have even been snipped, and he was given a time out this past weekend for bad behavior. That isn’t necessarily a reflection of other academics, only his participation here. – Anthony
Phil: Whosoever fits the shoe…
Virveli says:
August 24, 2010 at 11:19 am
Likely a true statement, but still premature. If the Arctic loses the same amount as 2004 or 2006 from now until the minimum, 2010 will end up above 2009.
-Scott
Julienne,
I don’t see us on SEARCH. Do you have a link?
Your 5.5 forecast was also submitted to SEARCH, so I’m not sure what the difference is between that and my 5.5 SEARCH forecast ;^)
Julienne
Yes, PIPS forecast very strong winds blowing off the Siberian Coast today.
It seems to me that at this time of the year,with rapidly declining but always weak solar effect and widespread freezing temperature levels and colder.There is little actual melting going on.
It is the winds that can still reduce the ice area by packing them.Making it appear that it is melting when actually it is being packed into a smaller area.
I wonder if winds is the main cause of the irregular ice cover year to year in later summer time periods.
Julienne Stroeve says:
August 24, 2010 at 9:06 am
The ice is currently at 5.5 million sq-km in NSIDC’s ice extent data and I don’t believe the melt season is over quite yet.
______
I would very well agree with that. The melt season is certainly coming into the home stretch, but has some legs left in it. I continue to have the simple belief that Arctic SST’s (which are based on the amount of open water we’ve had during the melt season) “set the table” for this last home stretch, and that winds and currents diverge or compact the lower concentration ice as low and high pressure systems cross the Arctic in August and September. I would be interested to know if there is some general studies being done that relate more open water and warmer water temps, as we’ve seen the past few years, with the possibility of later and later dates for the final summer low? It just would seem to make osme intuitive sense, and I could even imagine some year that the low might now even be set until early October…
In looking at these images from the Icebreaker Healy, which is in the western Arctic Basin right now:
http://mgds.ldeo.columbia.edu/healy/reports/aloftcon/2010/20100824-0301.jpeg
You can well imagine the wind diverging or compacting this ice. I also can well imagine this lower concentration ice eventually freezing over in place, with nice layer of snow on top that could go on to become David Barber’s “rotten ice”, though I know this has become the subject of ridicule from some skeptics.
Julienne says:
August 24, 2010 at 11:16 am
I don’t know if anyone noticed the large pull back from the Siberian coast today in the AMSR-E imagery. Looks like the Northern Sea Route is likely going to be open again this year.
______
Noticed it right away…and so once more, you could in theory circumnavigate the Arctic sea ice (going around the southern tip of Greenland of course!). Some year soon, I’m sure someone will…just to say they were the first!
What I find interesting is the cold seen and predicted for Russia in connection with the DMI plot getting over the freezing line, and now over the average.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Seems like the winds are playing musical chairs.
So poor old Phil dares use the word “nonesense” and refer to Steve Goddard by his surname- which for Cassandra really “crosses the line”. Then the personal attacks start flying from the ‘polite’ and well ‘mannered’ sceptic crowd. Anthony –gives a hint as to his of his identy (“an academic at a major university” shock horror) and a “rude” academic no less. J Knight calls him “intellectually dishonest” and suggests a good spanking for conduct “reprehensible”. Smokey chimes in and suggests his tensure be eliminated. We appear to be in the habit of over reacting don’t we now.
MJK
mjk,
Your reading comprehension is weak. I am opposed to tenure for anyone. Phil is just a poster boy for why it should go.
15% may a meaningful concentration for use as a navigation guide, but not necessarily for measuring “ice health.” A couple of days of warm or windy weather can have a large impact on extent.
When gauging “ice health,” it seems to me that thickness, age and area are more meaningful metrics. 30% concentration, like DMI uses, also seems like a better metric.
“REPLY: Oh please. Citing a “academic at a major university” is not “personal details”. Every wordpress commenter (including your comment, with IP sourced in Finland) posts an IP address with each comment.”
Mr Watts, thanks you for your answer! Yes, I’m aware various forum software does record IPs internally, but the point is that I have never seen a board that would actually reveal any of it back to the public, have you? Neither will they I think reverse-IP and show the geographical location either I should think.
If your site researches, and sometimes publishes, some of an anonymous poster’s personal details, which will be the actual limits to that activity on your site? I gather from your response above that at least a poster’s profession and geographic location are publishable, without a poster’s consent as well.
Read the policy page
“Noticed it right away…and so once more, you could in theory circumnavigate the Arctic sea ice (going around the southern tip of Greenland of course!). Some year soon, I’m sure someone will…just to say they were the first!”
R.Gates, in fact there are two such enterprises going on in full swing presently. One Russian and one Norwegian expedition. The Norwegian team has recently passed the iciest part of the NE passage. See http://www.ousland.no http://rusarc.ru/expedition/route/
My favorite part of the policy page:
■Anonymity is not guaranteed on this blog. Posters that use a government or publicly funded ip address that assume false identities for the purpose of hiding their source of opinion while on the taxpayers dime get preferential treatment for full disclosure.
I notice that there have been some comments on a posters rudeness, and this has provoked a flurry attacking the first group. In general, I have observed a tendency of people behaving in a way on blogs that would not be acceptable in a social context. Imagine this was a social gathering, we’re all standing around chatting, Steve Goddard says something about sea ice, and suddenly somebody shouts out, “Hey Goddard – you’re talking nonsense etc.” Wouldn’t people start commenting on that? “Who is that rude guy? Where’s he come from,” etc. I wouldn’t expect others to defend him from criticism, since that would be the same as defending his behaviour.
Seems that once people get behind the keyboard, they become a different person. Same sort of thing as when people get behind the wheel of a car, maybe.
Ben says:
August 24, 2010 at 9:38 am
Phil. says:
August 24, 2010 at 8:21 am
More of your nonsense Goddard, as you well know Barber was no where near the location of that image (which is not at the N Pole but actually closing on the Fram strait). The following image is in the vicinity of Barber’s location, and guess what, it still looks rotten!
Looks like melting ice to me, what is this rotten concept you speak of? To me ice melts every year, so this entire “rotten” concept just stinks of some educational misfits who got too high one night and decided to come up with some excuse on why their previous charts are wrong..its not our charts that are wrong, its the ice’s fault for not melting!! Its Rotten I tell ya!
How can you tell ice is rotten by the way? Do you smell it, or do you look at it and say “the way its melting is different then other types of ice, and that means its rotten.” This ice is melting like “swiss cheese instead of like “ice”. Its not real ice, its SWISS ICE!
Speaking of rotten ice, is it like eggs that when rotten smell bad? I think I will head a study to figure this one out. I will have enough US monies through my education grant to fly us to Tahiti three times in the name of finding “rotten” ice. So if anyone is interested in studying rotten ice melt in Tahiti, please let me know.
Who knows, maybe I will run into some scientists who smell rotten…and I can do a study on them and how rotten their science is compared to mine which is based on rotten ice data in Tahiti. We all know the better rotten ice is in Tahiti, so lets go to Tahiti and study some real science folks!
Ice rot is not something to be taken lightly I tell you what!
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Ben, Ben, Ben. Please calm down. You sound like some others on this site who ridicule the phrase “rotten ice”. The phrase “rotten ice” is standard ice terminology that’s been in use for at least 150 years.
Please always remember and do never forget, Google. Google is good for you. Google is your friend. When in doubt Google.
Google rotten ice,” particularly under the “Books” section, then go blush.
http://encyclopedia2.thefreedictionary.com/rotten+ice
http://books.google.com/books?id=IZCVPVpAhuwC&pg=PA160&dq=%22rotten+ice%22&hl=en&ei=RiN0TL39OYnUtQPMycGjCA&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=6&ved=0CEIQ6AEwBQ
Jeff Lowe – 1996 – 255 pages – Preview
Thick but rotten ice is often easier to deal with using two long-shafted axes. These tools give more options for … Rotten ice may be on the verge of collapsing, so beware. Class 7 he Very few pure ice climbs reach this level of …
http://books.google.com/books?id=SdYBAAAAYAAJ&pg=PA33&dq=%22rotten+ice%22&hl=en&ei=RiN0TL39OYnUtQPMycGjCA&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=9&ved=0CFcQ6AEwCA
<Thomas Rupert Jones, Great Britain. Admiralty – 1875 – 869 pages – Full view
“Rotten ice, means ice that is worn away whilst lying ” in situ,” generally early in spring, by certain currents of the sea (usually … This ” rotten ice ” becomes spongy and dangerous to travel over. It is very common in Smith’s Sound, …”
This misreading of Steven vs. Phil. is absurd.
1. Phil makes a valid point that Steven conflates two unrelated issues/locations.
2. Steven feigns ignorance or is ignorant concerning Phil.’s point.
3. Anthony tries to explain to Steven what Phil. is talking about, by noting an earlier thread.
4. Steven posts another irrelevant comment not understanding Phil.’s point or simply evading it.
5. Phil. again points out the irrelevancy of using the North Pole Cam to discuss the concept of “rotten ice” as discussed in earlier threads.
6. People claim Steven has bested Phil. in this contest of logic.
7. I am flabbergasted.
Phil. definitely has a history of being somewhat ungracious, but take him on directly and he almost always wins a fact-based debate. While he may hail from “the other side of the aisle” to most viewers here, he is one of the most informed commenters who visit here. His frustration with Steven has been building over time, in my opinion, for quite justifiable reasons.
mecago,
You’ve picked two bad examples of rotten ice. The first refers to rock and ice climbing techniques, and the second refers to ice “early in spring” that is caused by ocean currents.
You can do better than that, can’t you? This isn’t realclimate.
“Phil. says:
August 24, 2010 at 8:21 am
Remember the “rotten ice” in 2008, which led to Mark Serreze betting on an ice free North Pole that summer? Looks like we have come a long way since then. Here is what the North Pole looks like today :
More of your nonsense Goddard, as you well know Barber was no where near the location of that image (which is not at the N Pole but actually closing on the Fram strait).”
Phil, Steven Goddard was mocking M. Serreze’s ice free North Pole “bet” ( /prediction/) , not the “rotten ice discovery”. The picture from the North Pole is most relevant. Barber has nothing to do with ice free North Pole .
That’s a subtle topic change. Was it conscious?
mecago
The image of the North Pole Phil linked was actually taken almost 1000 miles away.
Arthur
The ice was rotten in 2008. My point is that the ice conditions at the North Pole have “improved” considerably.
The area surveyed by Barber is shown to be ice free on the PIPPS 2.o plot for August 28, 2009, the day after they left. There should not have been any ice where their coordinates put them: 71°20’N, 139°00’W, (nearly 12 miles from the pole) according to Barbers report. The weather during their survey averaged -1.2C. Not surprising what they encountered was rotten.
[snip]