By Steve Goddard
NCEP has changed their forecast, and it now appears there will be above normal temperatures over the Beaufort Sea for the next few days.
This will cause continued melt of the low concentration ice, and a downwards drift of the extent line. Daily loss has been declining steadily over the last month, but not enough to keep extent above my 5.5 million JAXA forecast.
Looks like it will be close at the finish line between 2009 and 2010 for JAXA 15%.
The DMI 30% concentration graph looks like 2010 will probably finish ahead of 2009.
Average ice thickness is highest since 2007 and 10% higher than 2009. Hinting at a 10% increase in ice volume next spring relative to 2010.
Barring 2007 style winds, next spring should see a third straight year of recovery since the winter of 2007-2008, when much of the thick ice blew out of the Arctic and melted in the North Atlantic.
Remember the “rotten ice” in 2008, which led to Mark Serreze betting on an ice free North Pole that summer? Looks like we have come a long way since then. Here is what the North Pole looks like today :
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“2010 will be either the #1 or #2 warmest year on instrument record.”
lol of course it is…
fishnski says:
August 25, 2010 at 12:50 pm
Well I’d assume that the ice at 77 N has the same melting point as elsewhere in the world. 🙂
I believe ocean water freezes at 28.9F. Fresh water is obviously 32 F. Now, most of the melting probably happens due to differences in water temps, and you’re looking at air temps. Presumably the ice is mostly fresh water, so the melt happening on top will stop at 32F, but if the water is warm enough to melt the ice…
Now if you’re asking how cool it has to be at 77N to stop the melt at other latitudes…there are two philosphies: (1) those temperatures correlate all that well or (2) you can extrapolate very far (i.e. GISS).
-Scott
Can people please tone it down? I am so tired of these accusations.
Wind pushes the ice around, wind melts the ice, wind transfers energy to the ice very efficiently. I am not misrepresenting or interchanging anything.
fishnski
You can’t compare land based temperatures with those out on the pack ice.
Is the temperature in Palm Desert the same as Catalina Island? They are at the same latitude and elevation.
Thread closed
I’m tired of moderating this argument over rotten ice he said/he said between Phil. and Steve etc. Maybe we’ll all have a better discussion next time.