Now up to 65mph, not far from Cat 1 Hurricane category winds. Seems almost sure to be a Hurricane soon. The good news is that the path seems away from the Gulf, and it will help transport some of that Atlantic SST/heat into the upper atmosphere.
WTNT31 KNHC 231438
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST MON AUG 23 2010
…DANIELLE CONTINUES TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…15.1N 39.4W
ABOUT 1025 MI…1650 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…994 MB…29.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 39.4 WEST.
DANIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH…26
KM/HR…AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. DANIELLE SHOULD MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
BY WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH…100
KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND DANIELLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THIS EVENING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB…29.35 INCHES.
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS…PIRATA BUOY 13008…LOCATED NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER…REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 998 MB AND AN 8-MINUTE
AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 47 MPH…76 KM/HR.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM AST.
Ah, Joe Bastardi has been forecasting that the hurricane events will pick up sharply round about now.
Joe B. also predicted that Rita would come right up Galveston Bay, causing mass panic and evacuations! LOL
Tropical activity always picks up during the last week in August. The number of tropical storms and hurricanes has been close to the statistical norm so far.
The ridge is breaking down so Danielle will be visiting the North Atlantic very soon.
Earl (to be) is on the way…
And when Earl is the next off the train to form behind Danielle, lets hope that he will follow his sister and stay out to sea.
These tropical pressure cooker valves are beneficial when they stay out to sea…except in the case of synoptic drought-busting rains.
Parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will take a tropical cyclone [weakened, let’s hope] to end the drought status.
My state [even though it is very wet on the coast] was hit particularly hard this year.
Counties west of me the corn died before it could be harvested.
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Hmmmm…looks like she’ll be missing New England according to the models.
Oh crap…better get the lawn furniture inside and batten down the hatches.
JimB
It’ll be classified a hurricane just in time for the evening newscasts.
Great joy will break out in certain media weather departments. They will at last have a hurricane to report on (Alex was too short-lived). And with bated breath they will also report on the possibility of the new area off the coast of Africa following fast on the heels of Danielle. Still, the disappointment will be hard to miss when Danielle ends up turning before Bermuda and stays at sea.
And if there is an outlier model that brings the storm close to the coast it will merit a mention, if only to keep stoking fears (and ratings).
And after giving the matter some thought, no, I don’t think I’m being cynical; just honestly noting the way weather events are reported.
OT but very important in the PR campaign now being waged by the CAGW camp. Today’s NYTimes has an Op-Ed piece headlined “Disaster at The Top of The World” by Thomas Homer-Dixon of the Balsillie School of International Affairs. It is the typical tale of the Arctic ice is going, going, gone and the necessary climate change policy is grid-locked because of the polarizing influence of big coal and big oil. Would you enlist Steve Goddard or another contributor who is immersed in the facts to respond in an email to the NYTimes editor to be posted here, also?
Tks,
RayG
Forgot to include the url for NYTimes fantasy:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/23/opinion/23homer-dixon.html?_r=1&ref=opinion
Countdown to “The Greatest/fastest/whatever (insert metric du jour here)” headline in 3….2….1….
Please elaborate on the comment
“…it will help transport some of that Atlantic SST/heat into the upper atmosphere.”
Is the implication that there is less SST/heat for future storm formation? Is it significant?
Here’s the one named storm for the 14 day period discussed back on the 18th around here.
Reviewing the IR loops, I see more westerly than northwesterly possibilities.
Still think this one will end up in the Gulf, eventually. Temps aside, not seeing the clear frontal ‘hook’ to ratchet it in the NNW direction. If it gets far enough west, it’s going to get ‘undeneath’ the continental blowoff, then continue more or less due west on that gradient.
At least, that’s what the wetware modeling and sim comes up with.
So the headline should be “Quiet Hurricane Season Continues – Defies “experts” Predictions – Again”
Looks like one of those “Armada Boat Ride” storms that slams into the British Isles and changes history books. Maybe?
Well late August and September is the traditional hurricane season. All the charts show it peaks around now. But the predictions seem to be major off … Our local hysteria network, NBC weather even isn’t biting on this one.
PMH says:
August 23, 2010 at 9:09 am
Tropical storms cool the sea surface both through evaporation and mixing up cooler water from below. Sometimes that interferes with the next storm that gets in that area.
In this case, Danielle is gaining latitude so quickly it’s not going to have much impact on any hurricane that might head for the Caribbean.
Wind Rider says:
August 23, 2010 at 9:21 am
> Here’s the one named storm for the 14 day period discussed back on the 18th around here.
Which discussion was that? The Kltozbach & Gray forecasts focused on ACE, not individual storms (how would you handle storms that cross forecast periods?):
The metric that we are trying to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all of the named storm’s maximum wind speeds (in 10^4 knots^2) for each 6-hour period of its existence over the two-week period. These forecasts are too short in length to show significant skill for individual event parameters such as named storms and hurricanes.
There was this:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/17/klotazbach-and-gray-the-next-two-weeks-should-be-active/#comment-460293 said:
R.S.Brown says:
August 18, 2010 at 4:13 am
I’ll take the bet against Atlantic named-storm
development over the next two weeks at even odds.
If nothing much shows by next Tuesday, I’ll go with
2 to 1 odds against.
Having lived in Bermuda from 1989-1992, I went thru several near misses, i.e.Gabriel, and one direct hit, Dean. It is not pleasant there when hurricanes strike. Although the catchments will get filled. So I hope it misses Bermuda by a goodly amount.
That storm has all the look of the storms like we had last summer. A sharp NW followed by a sharp N and then a NE. I am not a betting man, but I suspect that there is a better chance of that hitting Ireland than hitting the US.
NOAA isn’t trustworthy on these mid-atlantic storms where there is no fly-through data to actually measure intensity. A few upward mph guesses pushes the hurricane category button. If they guess 75 mph for even one day, the media screams ‘major hurricane’ and the arm waving starts all over again. NOAA’s done this before on distant storms which quickly fizziled out after one or two days classification as major hurricanes.
ot:
op-ed in today’s nyt:
“the arctic is melting and it will cause a global catastrophe!”
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/23/opinion/23homer-dixon.html?ref=opinion%20?hp
danny a,
The NY Times is never right about climate predictions [source].
The heat will get to the poles, one way or another. The determining factor is the gradient and the local (weather) conditions that dictate how and by how much.
Shear is the storm killer and Danielle (as a tropical low pressure system) leaves behind it not only stirred surface water but a legacy of low-level cyclonic airflow. This is the shear that pushes the cloud tops against the direction of the advancing storm and disconnects the heat engine. The warm core of the cyclone is destabilized and the rising air stops pulling in the surrounding humid air.
Convection lifts and advection (like a pot-watcher) keeps the contents from boiling. 😉
I’m on vacation golfing in Martha’s Vineyard. I hope Danielle doesn’t get up here before I can make other plans. I knew I shoulda vacationed in Louisiana!