Max winds 75MPH, Category 1.
Bulletin:
WTNT31 KNHC 232033
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST MON AUG 23 2010
…DANIELLE BECOMES A HURRICANE…THE SECOND OF THE ATLANTIC
SEASON…
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…15.4N 41.5W
ABOUT 1320 MI…2120 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…987 MB…29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 41.5 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH…28 KM/HR…AND IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/HR…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES…20 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES…110 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB…29.15 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.
_Jim says:
August 23, 2010 at 6:31 pm
I believe the folks who make NOAA’s seasonal forecasts are not the same ones who produce the operational forecasts on individual storms.
While they sometimes call a storm too early for several meteorologists, for the most part the forecasts are consumed with trying to figure out what storms will be doing. They’re willing to stand up against people who are harming the science, see http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/07/09/hurricane.official/index.html for a good example.
If you feel really strongly about this, you might lobby our congress critter to separate out or abandon the seasonal forecast. Danielle looks like it was going to be a hurricane soon enough – perhaps you should focus on storms that will only marginally reach a threshhold.
Better – learn how to read the satellite imagery, I think you have access to essentially the same data the NHC has, and come up with your own T-numbers.
Richard Holle says:{August 23, 2010 at 6:21 pm}
Actually I was referring to a post you made in early July. I lost the link but copied the text to refer back to. A portion of that text in which you said:
“Correlation may not be causation, but I have seen repeating patterns in which the normal TS production (TS and Cat 1-2 storms) happens when there is a lunar declination culmination, but close to or just after a Synod conjunction with one or more of the outer planets, the extra energy drives the maximum storm energy into the Cat 3-4- and 5 range.
This year we had a conjunction with Saturn on the 22nd of March, spawning three weeks of strong storms and flash floods globally, but will not be seeing any other until the three other outer planets all come together between the 20th of August and the 21st, 22nd and 24th of September 2010.
This should give us a break in intense tropical storms until Mid August, then we will see a rapid uptick in activity until the peak of these effects are over in late October. ”
Pretty accurate so far.
Ric, I do, for land-based storms/systems (I spot/chase tornadoes – or I used to) over the continental US but I don’t have time of late to also include the Atlantic extending to Africa …
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Can you riddle me the answer to this Ric – how close to 75 MPH was this call?
Within 10 MPH? 15 MPH?
Did it include forward storm motion in this estimate (note: storm movement was cited as 17 MPH in the bulletin)?
.
The process is the same one, the amount of details varies, if you would like to view the resultant US East coast precipitation my method forecast (back in December of 2007) from the pass up the eastern seaboard of Danielle.
Click on my name then use the calendar feature to look for the 30th and 31st of August, or just click the “NEXT” text button til you can see the off shore pattern this same method forecast from raw daily data.
Ric, I’ve got their ‘game’ now … these are educated estimates of wind conditions based on other parameters; IOW, they’re using proxies (to cut to the quick). No longer do we need actual wind measurements to ‘play’ this game according to NOAA/NWS rules (I know, I know; it would be ridiculous to send a hurricane A/C out this far just for the purposes of a ‘numbers’ game/wind measurement … wait ’til it’s close to land).
Per:
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST MON AUG 23 2010
DANIELLE … . A 2148 UTC SSMIS OVERPASS SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF AN EYE WITH LITTLE OR NO VERTICAL TILT…
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS MORE SYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS EARLIER AND CONSISTS OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND SPIRAL BANDS WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -80 C.
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5/77 KT AND 4.0/65 KT…RESPECTIVELY AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE NEAR 4.5/77 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOLLOWS THE HIGHER ESTIMATES AND IS SET AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
.
It’s cold and calm here on the Pacific. That entire world wide warming hasn’t hit yet, though any millenium now, it might.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif
graph of total precipitatable water in the atmosphere, they report you decide?
Careful April. It hit 99 in parts of the SF Bay Area today. Even though it has been a record cool year here, and it’s already August 23 and today’s the first “spare the air” day we’ve had all summer, it must be a sure sign of global warming that it hit 99 today. Tomorrow may even hit 101. I’ll have to call Al and donate some carbon credits to stave off the global warming god.
Michael Jankowski says:
August 23, 2010 at 7:29 pm
Danielle and future Earl are both currently projected to spin far away from the US. More disappointing news for those waiting for the second-coming of Katrina (their Messiah).
========================
Huh??? Who wants that??
Why would anyone wish a disaster like that?
I gotta admit, from King Lear to The Tempest…he had a WAY with the English language like none other ever.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
_Jim says:
August 23, 2010 at 8:21 pm
I don’t know how close, and I’m not certain of how things are estimated. The forward motion is included (i.e. the right side of the storm has stronger winds than the left). Fluid dynamicaly, the wrong thing to do IMHO, but in terms of wave action at sea and wind impact on land, quite defensible.
In bigger storms with a clear eye, I think the rotational speed is measured by looking at how far the clouds rotate between two images. A tropical storm’s wind speed does vary with altitude due to sea surface friction at low altitudes and the shape of the eye at higher altitudes (the stadium effect, see http://www.milli-bar.com/wsoldani/Katrina/Katrina6.htm )
——————————–
_Jim says:
August 23, 2010 at 8:33 pm
The only direct measurements are from ocean buoys, land based anemometers, and dropsondes that take a lucky path in the eyewall. Dropsondes are also used to get the air pressure in the eye, probably the most important measure of a storms overall intensity.
The hurricane plane observers do not directly measure sea surface wind speeds. The do measure above surface winds, but flying in the eyewall near the surface is far too risky. Instead, they adjust flight level winds to what is ordinarily expected at the surface and look at the texture of the waves in the eye.
The really important information from the flights are the conditions at various altitudes. Storms are 3-D animals. Surface conditions are important for damage estimates, evacuations, storm surge, etc. but there’s much more information to be gathered aloft. See http://www.hurricanehunters.com/mission.html
See http://www.wunderground.com/education/hugo1.asp for an account of entering Hugo’s eyewall too low and hitting a eyewall vortex. They nearly became the first spotter flight to not return.
In the future, you may spare the basics and assume a higher level of understanding of all this … I’ve been at this game/the weather/the dynamics involved for a loooooooong time now. Did I mention I chase- used to – tornadoes? Tornado chaser … began in the late 70’s, pre-internet, pre-NEXRAD as a matter of fact; relied on the human intel from operators sitting at the consoles of WSR-57 RADARs providing summaries in those days … did I mentioned that?
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Ric Werme says:
August 23, 2010 at 9:41 pm
=============================
Fascinating, information-packed post.
Thank you.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
_Jim says:
@ur momisugly
Ric Werme August 23, 2010 at 7:33 pm
Ric, I do, for land-based storms/systems (I spot/chase tornadoes – or I used to) over the continental US but I don’t have time of late to also include the Atlantic extending to Africa …
========================
So if you “don’t have time as of late” to include the mightiest cyclones on Earth extending to Africa, (out in the Atlantic)….then why are you even adding your opinion here?
If you are so busy, then why is it a concern for you??
Eric (skeptic) is right. Looks like a hurricane for sure.
And a damn ******* healthy one, at that.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201006_sat.html#a_topad
Not sure where your cynicism is coming as trying to fire up some sort of conspiracy.
But hurricanes, especially the Cape Verde sort, are are a force to be reckoned with.
They are immune to politics, and are not subject to the evening news….or any conspiracy…right or left.
Deal with it!
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
I still call for zero major storms hitting the US this year just like last year when I was 199% accurate in my prediction.
Don’t look at the warming cloud tops.
Look instead to the clockwise “blur” of cirrus superimposed over a counterclockwise flow below.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html
These are fascinating creatures, no?
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
_Jim (August 23, 2010 at 8:33 pm)
Yes, they guessed high yesterday afternoon and evening, but it was a very good guess based on a couple of differing indicators and their own look at the satellite and upper air charts.
There was some bias earlier in season IMO with the B and C storms (forgot the names), and there might be systematic bias especially early and late season, but not with this storm. Still a hurricane this morning from the looks of it, but it got choppy overnight (dry air influx?) Still, during peak season and these conditions, I wouldn’t worry about it falling apart.
Doesn’t look like much to me. Let’s ask farmer John.
So John, this something to be worried about?
Nah, is just windy. And we’re hardy sturdy people don’t bother with a little wind. We break more wind after dinner after all.
Sssssssssssssssssssh See, nuthing, Ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssh OMG nooo! My eyes, my eyes!
Just a reminder to our inland friends. The strongest hurricane winds are located at the very center of the storm and decrease rapidly as one gets away from there. Sometimes satellite pictures give the false impression that the entire cloud cover has winds of hurricane force.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201006_wind.html#a_topad
Tom in Florida says:
August 24, 2010 at 4:57 am
Other than the eye, of course, but that doesn’t hold together long after landfall. Also, the greatest damage inland is due to flooding, especially in weaker storms (where wind damage is low) and if the remnants stall (e.g. Hurricane Agnes in Pennsylvania and many more recent storms).
(I was in Pittsburgh when Agnes rained out over northeastern PA, so that’s always the first that comes to my mind.)
OK don’t look at the loss of the central dense overcast, too. Latest satellite picture does not show a healthy storm…at least for the time being.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
Definitely eating my words on an earlier post. *Yum*….they taste like paper.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Chris; Just some dry air being pulled into the systems as the secondary lunar tidal bulge slides back toward the equator, when the moon crosses the equator on the 26th, the primary bulge effects will start to pull these all north again.
Should be moving faster by the 27th, 28th, then powering up heading for the North Western point of it’s path by the 30th, 31st.
http://linkification.com/wx/2010/dry3.jpg