Via press release.
Is the ice in the Arctic Ocean getting thinner and thinner? Research aircraft Polar 5 measures thickness of sea ice north of Greenland
Bremerhaven, 20th August 2010.
The extent of the sea ice in the Arctic will reach its annual minimum in September. Forecasts indicate that it will not be as low as in 2007, the year of the smallest area covered by sea ice since satellites started recording such data. Nevertheless, sea ice physicists at the Alfred Wegener Institute are concerned about the long-term equilibrium in the Arctic Ocean. They have indications that the mass of sea ice is dwindling because its thickness is declining. To substantiate this, they are currently measuring the ice thickness north and east of Greenland using the research aircraft Polar 5. The objective of the roughly one-week campaign is to determine the export of sea ice from the Arctic. Around a third to half of the freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean takes place in this way – a major drive factor in the global ocean current system.
The question of when the Arctic will be ice-free in the summer has been preoccupying the sea ice researchers headed by Prof. Dr. Rüdiger Gerdes from the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in the Helmholtz Association for a long time now. Satellites have been recording the extent of the Arctic ice for more than 30 years. In addition to the area covered, the thickness of the ice is a decisive factor in assessing how much sea ice there is.
However, the thickness can only be determined locally, for example by means of the so-called EM-Bird, an electromagnetic measuring device which helicopters or planes tow over the ice. For Gerdes this is a very special job because he usually models his forecasts on his home computer.
The campaign with the research aircraft Polar 5 of the Alfred Wegener Institute now takes him on an expedition in the Arctic for the first time. “I’m very keen on seeing the results of the sea ice thickness measurements,” says Gerdes. “Only when we know the distribution of ice of varying thickness, can we calculate how much freshwater is carried out of the Arctic Ocean via ice.”
About 3000 cubic kilometres of ice drift out of the Arctic Ocean every year, corresponding to around 2700 billion tons. The ice exports freshwater that reaches the Arctic Ocean via rivers and precipitation. This maintains its salt concentration, which has been constant over the long term. The temperature rise observed worldwide is especially pronounced in the Arctic latitudes.
Researchers have been observing that the ice is getting thinner and thinner for several years now. As a result, it stores and exports less freshwater and the salt concentration (also referred to as salinity) of the Arctic Ocean declines. On the one hand, this influences all living things that have adapted to the local conditions. On the other hand, changes in salinity also have an impact on current patterns of global ocean circulation and thus on meridional heat transport.
In the TIFAX (Thick Ice Feeding Arctic Export) measurement campaign the researchers are primarily interested in ice that is several years old, several metres thick and occurs predominantly on the northern coast of Greenland. “Taking off on the measurement flights from Station Nord here is a special adventure,” reports Gerdes from one of the northernmost measuring stations in the world. “Flying through virtually unsettled regions of the Arctic in the high-tech research aircraft is a stark contrast to my modelling work on the computer.”
Notes for editorial offices:
Your contact in the Communication and Media Department of the Alfred Wegener Institute is Folke Mehrtens (phone: ++49 471 4831-2007; e-mail: Folke.Mehrtens(at)awi.de).
The Alfred Wegener Institute conducts research in the Arctic, Antarctic and oceans of the high and mid latitudes. It coordinates polar research in Germany and provides major infrastructure to the international scientific community, such as the research icebreaker Polarstern and stations in the Arctic and Antarctic. The Alfred Wegener Institute is one of the sixteen research centres of the Helmholtz Association, the largest scientific organisation in Germany.
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August 20, 2010 at 12:51 pm
CJames: If the ice is getting thinner and less freshwater is stored and exported, how could the salinity of the Arctic Ocean DECLINE?
There is a constant flow into the arctic of fresh water from the landmass (rivers). If you decrease the export, the net result is a reduction in salinity.
Fredb says:
_________________________________________________________
Salinity is not a simple issue, especially in the ocean. It is changing constantly due to various conditions.
The freeze/thaw process is used to make fresh water from brine in some parts of the world and just west of Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada, there are HUGE brine ponds that use the freeze/thaw process. Water is pumped underground into potash formations to dissolve the potash and it is then pumped back up to the surface where it is stored in large ponds until winter. Then the brine freezes, dropping out the potash to the bottom of the ponds. In summer, the ponds are decanted, the water is reused, the ponds are allowed to dry and the potash is picked up off the bottom of the ponds.
Some places used to get salt the same way.
Same thing happens in the oceans. There is a constant crystallization and dissolution process going on.
The Wegener Institute’s July-forecast for this year’s ice extend was 5.56, which is identical to Goddard’s. So they must have learned something from their measurements. These are for sure not all we need, but they are still better than to know nothing at all.
Let us not forget:
1) The Wegener Institute is in the AGW camp but …
2) … they really do research and they are honest
3) They need money to fly the DC 3
4) That text may be a computer translation (or simply genlish = german english)
At least they are measuring the thickness in a reproducible way and indeed last year reported that the ice was “thicker than expected” from models no doubt. Far better than the very silly and pointless Catlin expeditions.
Cheers Paul
Freshwater?
For some reason I had always thought that much of the sea ice in the Arctic was frozen sea water.
.
Michael Jankowski says:
August 20, 2010 at 7:30 pm
“It’s almost certainly thinner than it was 500, 1000, 2000, 5000, 10000, and ~22000 yrs ago, too.”
Certainly not thinner than it was 6 or 7 thousand years ago when (at least) the Arctic ocean north of Greenland was ice free for an extended period:
http://www.ngu.no/en-gb/Aktuelt/2008/Less-ice-in-the-Arctic-Ocean-6000-7000-years-ago/
This is also consistent with the GISP2 ice core from Greenland showing temperatures in the Arctic 2-3 K warmer during Holocene optimum 7-8 thousand years ago.
Todays arctic temperatures and sea ice extent is certainly not unprecedented during the holocene.
The next thing we’ll be hearing is that the NW Passage is open:
http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/nwp/nwp07.png
http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/nwp/nwp09.png
It’s been the seasonal lie for the last few years now. Corrupt scientists using their falsified data to issue useless sea ice maps.
Duh..little do they know that this year we’re one sep ahead! We have our own man up there with his Polar-oid to reveal the truth to the world. Here is his picture of the actual conditions in the NW Passage, the McClure Strait no less:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/12/IcebreakerNasa.jpg
Our intrepid man also had time to dash of a quick painting. Again he testifies that these are the actual conditions Aug. anno 2010:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Caspar_David_Friedrich_006.jpg
Keep these images firm in mind when you hear the words “North West Passage” to fight the propaganda that its open. These deluded activists will stop at nothing to have us beleive that. In fact ‘our man’ caught a picture of that well known ‘warmist’ Mark C. Serreze (NSIDC) trying to make it through the Passage just so that he could say “I told you so!”
http://www.joe-ks.com/archives_jul2009/NewfoundlandIcebreaker.jpg
“Hey Mark. Is that what you mean by human influence reducing Arctic ice cover? (Like the new haircut!)”
“Researchers have been observing that the ice is getting thinner and thinner for several years now. ”
April 29th 2009
“All in all, the ice was somewhat thicker than during the last years in the same regions, which leads to the conclusion that Arctic ice cover recovers temporarily.”
http://www.awi.de/en/news/press_releases/detail/item/research_aircraft_polar_5_finishes_arctic_expedition_unique_measurement_flights_in_the_central_arc/?cHash=e36036fcb4
I wonder what they might find:
http://climateinsiders.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/pips_ice_average_thickness_metres1.png
Basic stuff. I was glad to see them fly and record last year and happy to see them at it again this year. (Also, I shamefully admit I was hoping they’d fly over the Catlin Arctic Circus and make appropriate gestures.)
We need more ‘basic stuff’ when it comes to climate research. 50 or 60 more years of flyovers and we just might know something. Kudos to the Wegener crew.
This year will probably be the 3rd smallest ice extent out of about 30 years.
Sorry guys, there seems to be an ugly error in the translation.
Does somebody have a link to the german version. Didnt’t
find one at AWI’s website.
For the records – my mother language is german –
so maybe I could assist in correcting the translation
KlausB
Ice Volume:
Long term Trend = -2% year
2007 El Nino = – 40 %
2008/9 2 La Ninas = +15%
2010 El Nino = ? ? ?
Actually the last 2 years were a Quite Large gain.
Also, each Winter gains 6 feet in thickness.
Now I thought it would ALL melt, except that heavy Ice that has never budged from Greenland & Elsmere.
Silly me – – I was right – – sort of. But the heavy Ice moved out. I now think that because it is HEAVY CUBES, it won’t melt as fast, weither. further, the 60-year Cycle implies 2 La Nina coming up.
Question. Why the paths chosen? Can’t we get a more radial view than just up against the Greenland coast?
Ralph, when sea water freezes the salt doesn’t freeze with it. In fact, you can drink from top of the ice melt water pools.
Pamela; I wonder how much sea ice ponds have you tasted 😉 Actually I have sucked on sea ice and used it in drinks.
After you rinse it off with fresh water it is quite sweet. 🙂 pg
Village Idiot says:
August 21, 2010 at 5:26 am
HUH? those images you link to have nothing at all to do with the NWP as it is today. Have you looked at any of the visible imagery? You may not want to trust passive microwave imagery, even though the brightness temperature between open water and seaice is vastly different, but the optical imagery from satellites such as MODIS make is obvious how much open water there currently is in the NWP.
RE: “bubbagyro says:
August 20, 2010 at 1:16 pm
“…That 0.2 meter reduction represents zzz number of Manhattans (or is it “ice sufficient to make 7.8 billion Manhattans) Do the GISS and PIOMAS people drink too many Manhattans? Is that the crux of their problems?”
Oh, thank you! I needed a good laugh!
OK. I’ve scanned the comments, and haven’t seen the words”thermohaline circulation” once. Did I just miss it? Or has “thermohaline circulation” gone out of fashion, and all mention of it been banned from discussions about arctic ice?
As I understand it, when the sea water freezes a process occurs wherein brine is removed from the ice, making the ice less salty than pure sea water. But what happens to the brine?
The brine is able to reach temperatures far below freezing without freezing, due to its high salt content. It apparently bores its way down through the ice, and exits via the bottom of the newly formed ice. It then is immediately much heavier than the less-salty water it enters, and does not immediately and completely mix with that less-salty water. Instead it sinks down, down, down and feeds the thermohaline circulation’s “beginning.”
Thermohaline circulation is difficult to study, poorly understood, and the fellows who study it are under-funded. Who wants to spend money on gizmos and gadgets measuring temperatures and salinity and currents a mile under the sea, when they can get immediate results funding Hansen, and seeing immediate “adjustments?”
Be that as it may, it still amazes me that we can discuss fresh water entering and leaving the arctic, without discussing the departure of so much salt via thermohaline circulation.
PS: I wanted to add an interesting observation noted by someone who actually stuck his head under the arctic ice, and observed the underside as the ice formed. He noticed ice did not merely form at the top, where the sub-zero winds blew, but also in the water under the ice. Interesting peper-thin plates of ice formed in the water below the ice and rose up to the underside of the ice, becoming part of the thickening ice-cover.
I wondered if the formation of these plates of ice, down where the sub-zero winds can’t reach, might not be due to the super-cooled brine sinking down through the less-salty water.
I meant “paper-thin,” not “peper thin.”
Caleb says:
August 22, 2010 at 3:28 am
PS: I wanted to add an interesting observation noted by someone who actually stuck his head under the arctic ice, and observed the underside as the ice formed. He noticed ice did not merely form at the top, where the sub-zero winds blew, but also in the water under the ice. Interesting peper-thin plates of ice formed in the water below the ice and rose up to the underside of the ice, becoming part of the thickening ice-cover.
I wondered if the formation of these plates of ice, down where the sub-zero winds can’t reach, might not be due to the super-cooled brine sinking down through the less-salty water.
It’s called ‘frazil’ ice and is the first stage of seaice formation, it usually involves convection pushing supercooled water down where it eventually nucleates to form little platelets of ice which eventually float to the surface where they agglomerate.
Phil,
I like that word, “frazil.”
My understanding is that frazil continues to form even when the ice has grown thick and relatively rigid, so that the water beneath the ice lies calm and undisturbed, even when winds howl and claw at gale force above the ice. The fact frazil does not grow from the bottom of the ice, (which would seem to make sense because that is where the water is closest to the sub-zero air,) but rather at some distance beneath the bottom of the ice, intrigues me.
How far below the bottom of the ice can frazil form? Does anyone know?
Also I have seen certain maps which show water from the Atlantic entering the arctic at shallow levels, and water entering from the Pacific at deeper levels, and these Atlantic and Pacific currents retaining their identity and curving hither and thither, but I haven’t seen a very clear map of where water descends. Does anyone know where (and exactly how) the water going into the Arctic Sea goes down? To become the deep current exiting the Arctic Sea? The beginning of the thermohaline circulation?
I sure would like to know more, but get the feeling science has a lot to learn, and most people are talking through their hats to a certain extent, when discussing thermohaline circulation.
Maybe I ought ask, in tips and notes to WUWT, that thermohaline circulation be discussed in a general manner, so that whatever little is known can be tossed about, torn to shreds, and discussed…….in our typical, jolly, WUWT manner.
Caleb says:
August 22, 2010 at 2:35 pm
Phil,
I like that word, “frazil.”
My understanding is that frazil continues to form even when the ice has grown thick and relatively rigid, so that the water beneath the ice lies calm and undisturbed, even when winds howl and claw at gale force above the ice. The fact frazil does not grow from the bottom of the ice, (which would seem to make sense because that is where the water is closest to the sub-zero air,) but rather at some distance beneath the bottom of the ice, intrigues me.
How far below the bottom of the ice can frazil form? Does anyone know?
I don’t know but supercooled water won’t freeze until it encounters a nucleus, so cold water from the bottom of the ice would descend until it nucleated whereupon the crystal will start to grow.
Phil,
Interesting. I wonder why the bottom of the ice itself doesn’t act as the nucleus, with crystles spearing downwards.
Alas, so much to learn, but here comes the Monday sunrise. Have a good week.
Caleb says:
August 22, 2010 at 2:35 pm
“water entering from the Pacific at deeper levels”
With the Bering Strait, at only 55m deep, I think maybe you have something mixed up?
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/HLD/Bstrait/bstrait.html