By Steve Goddard
GISS appears to be working hard to make 2010 the hottest year ever. As you can see in the graph above, they show 2010 with much more area above the 1998 line than below. I did a numerical integration of the graph above, and found that they have 2.8 times as much area with 2010 warmer than they do with 2010 cooler.
How does this compare with other data sources? HadCrut has been adjusting their data upwards, but even using their upwards adjusted numbers, their ratio of above to below area is only 0.04. Seventy times lower than GISS.
UAH has 0.12 times as much area above as they have below. Twenty-five times lower than GISS.
RSS has 0.07 times as much area above as below. Forty times lower than GISS.
The chart below shows how much of an outlier GISS is.
GISS is the only one of the four which shows 2010 as #1. The others aren’t even close. It must be their almost non-existent better Arctic coverage.
Conclusion: Dr. Hansen thinks that warming has continued unabated since 1998, while HadCrut, RSS and UAH think it has stopped or slowed to a crawl.
GISS
Had Crut
L
You don’t need any math skills. Some confused people are just spreading FUD.
GISS says 2010 is the warmest year. RSS, UAH and HadCrut say 1998 was the warmest year.
Steven,
My alarmist coworker said he calculated the areas under the curves with the plot starting at the temperature anomaly needed to make it snow CO2 in the Antarctic, and he claims there’s virtually no difference in any of the areas. I asked him what value that temperature anomaly is, and he started getting evasive and told me to ask you. Needless to say, he wouldn’t show me his calculations, either. It must be in their DNA to not show their work. But it shouldn’t matter where the plot starts, right?
REPLY: Please take this discussion of “CO2 Antarctic snow” off-thread as it has nothing to do with the current topic. We’ve already proven it can’t happen on earth by calculation and by experiment done for the benefit of WUWT here – Anthony
Steven Goddard replied, “Similarly, your question is irrelevant the topic of this article.”
Actually it is extremely relevant to your post, because as I and others have noted, 1998 is not a record year to GISTEMP. It has no bearing on the record since the record for GISTEMP is 2005.
You continued, “GISS has 2010 as #1.”
They do not. Here’s a link to the GISS webpage for their LOTI. It lists no annual GISTEMP data for 2010.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
And while you’re there. Note that 1998 is not the record year.
You continued, “RSS, UAH and HadCrut have 1998 as #1.”
Very true.
You continued, “I am comparing GISS #1 to everyone else’s #1.”
Wrong. Because 2005 is the record GISTEMP year, not 1998.
stevengoddard says:
August 20, 2010 at 10:32 am
Bob,
Hansen shows unabated warming since 1998. Other indices show differently.
According to the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index graph that you showed above that is not true, perhaps you don’t know what ‘unabated’ means?
Hansen shows 2010 as the warmest year.
He does not, he shows that the last 12 months in a 12 month running mean plot is higher than any previous 12 months. That is not the same as the year 2010.
Other indices say that is not true.
Have you any links to other indices plotted in the same way which contradict GISS?
Certainly your comparison of the GISS plot with the HadCrut annual anomaly plot is apples to oranges.
If already posted here, apologies. But is this for REAL ????
http://www.iceagenow.com/NOAA_Busted-Reported_temps_may_be_10_to_15_degrees_too_high..htm
regards
Stockbrokers must have loved Hansen in 2000.
jorgekafkazar says:
August 20, 2010 at 11:41 am
Phil. says: “No they’re not because used your usual trick of distorting the axis in an attempt to fool your readers. Your first graph of the post (GISS), has an ordinate range of 0.6 whereas all the others have a range of 0.8 or 1.0, in a blatant attempt to deceive. Just like you do with your histograms where you usually choose an ordinate scale to minimize the quantity you disfavor wrt the others.”
Most people with training in science (as is largely the case on this site) are capable of reading graphs, no matter what the scale. Since the individual graphs are clearly labeled and are only compared internally (read the post, if you must), there can be no “blatant attempt to deceive.”
That has not been my experience on this site and Goddard continually distorts and mis-states facts, in fact my post was in response to his claim that “the scales are identical” which is clearly not true. In fact he claims that the Scale is ºC which calls into question the scientific education of the poster never mind the readers!
Re: stevengoddard says:
August 20, 2010 at 8:21 am
[tonyb
UAH chLT shows daily temperatures this summer well below last year.
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AnKz9p_7fMvBdGtqQ0ljZG1JZUVFMmc2dTRyTHRDU1E&hl=en&output=html
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/data/amsu_daily_85N85S_chLT.r001.txt
]
Steve, you may wish to read Dr. Spencer’s latest post and reconsider this.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/08/daily-global-temperature-updates-on-the-discover-website-an-updated-tutorial/
No day in 2010 has been cooler than the same day in 2009.
Will Hansen be able to afford his future legal fees with all those climate awards or what ever he has received? At least he can’t deny having screwed taxpayers over since he has the awards to show for it.
All I know is that I was told back in May that this was definitely the hottest year on record. But I’m not any ones fool. I’m not just going to take one sources word for it, especially not in May. So I consulted the hockey stick looked to where 2010 is on the chart and sure enough it is the hottest. So there is a consensus which means this is settled so there doesn’t need to be any more debate. 🙂
Can any one explain to me how their can be a consensus when their charts don’t match?
Phil.
So you think that they are different types of degrees C, and anyone who disagrees with you is a liar?
What academic institution is it that you work for?
The way the graphs are formatted makes absolutely no difference to the calculated numbers.
Brego
Maybe the UAH page I’m looking at is sea surface temperatures? It isn’t obvious from the name of the page.
Bob,
Apparently your argument is that GISS 2010 problems are OK, because they were also wrong in 2005.
The world is not centered around GISS.
1DandyTroll says:
August 20, 2010 at 1:48 pm
My bet he is not going to be accountable for anything. all they are on the winning side.
Several new age scientists have had the courage of presenting their arguments here, but, surprisingly never J.H. Now we are interested in knowing how he managed to make that non euclidean graph.
Phil
Go back to your first calculus book and see if a constant multiple c ∫c*f(x) dx affects the ratio of two definite integrals.
You can stretch the way the graphs are drawn any way you want along the x or y axes, and you will get exactly the same numbers I published.
….or is it perhaps because there are different “flavors” of temperatures, like the different flavors of neutrinos supposedly coming out from the Sun?
Who knows!, everything is possible beyond the twilight zone, in the never more land, or rather in a fancy parallel universe where rivers of kool-aid flow.
Bob,
You wrote :
Huh? Hansen is claiming that 2010 is GISTEMP’s #1. That is the whole point of this article.
OT – I know some of you guys are having a great time, giving Steve a hard time.
And Steve’s a great sport about it….
This was posted a few back, does anyone know what this is about??
Steve? Bob? Phil??
===================================================
nevket240 says:
August 20, 2010 at 1:06 pm
If already posted here, apologies. But is this for REAL ????
http://www.iceagenow.com/NOAA_Busted-Reported_temps_may_be_10_to_15_degrees_too_high..htm
regards
Look at Hansen’s graph. Which year is the hottest?
http://climateinsiders.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/trendthroughjuly2010.png
Hint : it is 2010.
Re: stevengoddard says:
August 20, 2010 at 2:05 pm
[Maybe the UAH page I’m looking at is sea surface temperatures? It isn’t obvious from the name of the page.]
You are looking at the Ch4 temps. Dr. Spencer says:
“The bottom line is this: You can rely ONLY upon two channels at the Discover “Temperature Trends” page:
(1) the “Aqua ch.5 v2” channel for global-average mid-tropospheric temperatures, from the AMSU on NASA’s Aqua satellite, and
(2) the “Sea Surface” temperatures, which are averaged over the global ice-free oceans (60N to 60S), from the AMSR-E instrument on Aqua.
Do not trust any of the other channels for temperature trend monitoring. This is because, while the Aqua satellite equatorial crossing time is kept very near 1:30 am and pm with periodic orbit maneuvers, the rest of the channels come from the NOAA-15 satellite whose equatorial crossing time has now drifted from its original 7:30 am/pm value in late 1998 to about 4:30 am/pm now.”
stevengoddard says:
August 20, 2010 at 2:05 pm
Brego
Maybe the UAH page I’m looking at is sea surface temperatures? It isn’t obvious from the name of the page.
The first line of the file gives it away though:
file created=2010-08-20 20:22:14
title=Daily global average temperature at: Sea Surface
This is what Roy Spencer has to say:
“The bottom line is this: You can rely ONLY upon two channels at the Discover “Temperature Trends” page:
(1) the “Aqua ch.5 v2” channel for global-average mid-tropospheric temperatures, from the AMSU on NASA’s Aqua satellite, and
(2) the “Sea Surface” temperatures, which are averaged over the global ice-free oceans (60N to 60S), from the AMSR-E instrument on Aqua.
Do not trust any of the other channels for temperature trend monitoring. This is because, while the Aqua satellite equatorial crossing time is kept very near 1:30 am and pm with periodic orbit maneuvers, the rest of the channels come from the NOAA-15 satellite whose equatorial crossing time has now drifted from its original 7:30 am/pm value in late 1998 to about 4:30 am/pm now.”
The Aqua ch.5 v2 is the one that Brego cited where no day in 2010 is cooler than 2009.
Do you read any of the material you post or do you just bluster away?
stevengoddard says:
August 20, 2010 at 2:03 pm
Phil.
So you think that they are different types of degrees C, and anyone who disagrees with you is a liar?
No, I think anyone who doesn’t know the difference between the ‘scale’ of a plot and the ‘unit of measure’ is probably not saying anything worth listening to (repeated the error three times in a few hours despite being corrected by several posters).
The way the graphs are formatted makes absolutely no difference to the calculated numbers.
No but it makes a difference in the perception of that data by many readers, which of course why you persistently indulge in such deceptive practices.
I wouldn’t trust any numbers calculated by you in any case, given your track record.
I think it’s called taking the giss…
In my neck of the woods, flora and fauna are showing definite continued cooling behavior. Huckleberry bushes are IN BLOOM! Yep. In many areas, the fruit hasn’t even set yet. Normal huckleberry season is July. Earlier, morel mushrooms were supposed to come on end of May and it is normally a 1 week season. We were still picking mid June and I found a nice steak sized morel the first week in July. Yellow jackets are AWOL along with hornets that eat yellow jackets. Why? Too cold. Babies didn’t hatch. Bats are down because the insect population is down, and birds are already flocking here in the valley getting ready to migrate.
One of the hallmarks of a cold season are warmer days and much cooler nights. This means that tomato plants will not ripen, and many a gourd garden will have gnome-sized fruit. Buy canned pumpkin now because there will be less to buy come November. All of the signs of cooler temps have continued unabated since three years ago, at least for us in high mountainous and plateau areas.
The real data is in the climate zones and the wisdom collected by agricultural octogenarians. Which brings to mind this complaint (NSIDC are you listening?): How come Inuit knowledge is now thought of as sacred but the wisdom that James and Edith collected down on the farm doesn’t count for diddly?
NOAA is selling it hard too. There is a link on the front page of our local NOAA site for Tampa Bay that takes you to the short PDF report below. Look at the bold blue – there is one that says “warmest weather in recorded history”. Well, they did not bold blue the “some” in front of it – it’s all about presentation! I looked up the numbers and no records have been broken heat wise. The warmest six-months, back in 1949, were warmer by 5F!
Propaganda, plain and simple.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/tbw/TopNews/PDF/FirstSevenMonthsOf2010.pdf