Still Cooling: Sea Surface Temperatures thru August 18, 2010
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) measured by the AMSR-E instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite continue the fall which began several months ago. The following plot, updated through yesterday (August 18, 2010) reveals the global average SSTs continue to cool, while the Nino34 region of the tropical east Pacific remains well below normal, consistent with La Nina conditions.
(click on it for the large, undistorted version; note the global SST values have been multiplied by 10)
Dr. Spencer points out that oceanic cloud cover seems to be peaking. See the rest here
“Your first comment on this thread pertained to a cloud cover event that occurred solely in 2010.”
No, the jets started moving equatorward around 2000 and the global albedo started to rise around the same time. Roy’s chart shows the upward trend since then plus the recent peak.
The recent peak is part of that trend and because it is so noticeable I pointed it out as an illustration of the longer term change of trend.
During that short snapsot of time the jets stayed more equatorward than one would have expected from an El Nino of that strength so at the moment the top down solar effect is countering the individual El nino event. Hence the albedo peak. If that El Nino had had the effect that similar El Ninos had in the late 20th century AND if the sun had been more active then the jets would have gone more poleward and it would have been hard to discern the El Nino effect from the solar effect. As it is we see the effect of the quiet sun which is to cause increasing albedo and equatorward jets DESPITE that recent El Nino.
The outcome at any given time is a mixture of longer and shorter solar and oceanic effects hence my switching of timescales but the feature that responds to the combined effects is the latitudinal position of the jets and that affects global albedo.
Although the shifts anticipated by my model only become clear at 30 years or more one can get individual points at shorter timescales which illustrate what is going on in the background. The current albedo peak is one such.
” I’m not interested in millennial scaled variability for which there is no directly measured data.”
That is your privilege though I think it a mistake. The absence of directly observed data is not a bar to all investigation.
I am attempting to link current events to millennial scale variability and you have nothing to offer on that issue.
There is enough data, albeit sparse, to advance a logical physics based scenario but not enough to quantify the various processes involved.
stevengoddard says:
August 19, 2010 at 8:42 pm
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/19/global-sea-surface-temps-still-headed-down/#comment-461768
“Given that the oceans make up 70% of the earth, why aren’t UAH temperatures coming down with the SSTs?”
Roy Spencer explains here:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/08/daily-global-temperature-updates-on-the-discover-website-an-updated-tutorial/
Search for “Temperature Variations”. Very instructive.
“”” Suzanne says:
August 21, 2010 at 10:29 pm
Record salmon return explained – PDO to blame.
“Hard for some people to explain. But the abundantly obvious and evident reason for record salmon runs is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation shift that occurred in 2008, when cool waters replaced warmer waters in the eastern Pacific. Upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water feeds plankton and subsequently the entire food chain, including salmon.”
http://westinstenv.org/nftsf/2010/07/26/record-salmon-return-explained/
The same good news in British Columbia, Canada
“Sockeye salmon stocks in Fraser River report massive rebound”
VANCOUVER – Fraser River sockeye are returning in droves, with commercial fishermen catching their limit within a few hours of casting their nets. “””
Thanks for that input Suzanne. Many many years ago on a driving trip up in those parts, I drove along a section of the Frazer river, and the whole river was red with sockeye; I could have walked across the river on their backs.
It’s great to hear that they are currently in good health (apparently).
George
Here you go:
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=6177
I’d prefer to go direct to the paper but it’s behind a paywall unless you go through a secondary site.
Solid support for my basic propositions.