Still Cooling: Sea Surface Temperatures thru August 18, 2010
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) measured by the AMSR-E instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite continue the fall which began several months ago. The following plot, updated through yesterday (August 18, 2010) reveals the global average SSTs continue to cool, while the Nino34 region of the tropical east Pacific remains well below normal, consistent with La Nina conditions.
(click on it for the large, undistorted version; note the global SST values have been multiplied by 10)
Dr. Spencer points out that oceanic cloud cover seems to be peaking. See the rest here
stevengoddard says:
August 19, 2010 at 8:42 pm
Given that the oceans make up 70% of the earth, why aren’t UAH temperatures coming down with the SSTs?
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/
_______
This is probably one of the best questions asked so far. Tropo temps have been running high for quite some time…and let’s see, what is that molecule that has increased 40% in the troposphere in the past few hundred years that GCM’s just happen to have predicted will increase tropo temps? Oh yeah…CO2. And this is of course where “warmists” and skeptics diverge in opinion…yet what mechanism do skeptics find right now for the record high tropo temps?
rbateman says:
August 19, 2010 at 9:08 pm
I am getting the first benefits of that low cloud cover and cooler oceans here in NW Calif. This is the coolest summer here in a long time. The sunlight on the ground seems dimmed, and many describe the Sun’s color as distinctly lemony white, not the yellowish sun normally seen.
_______
There has been cold water off the coast from CA all the way north to Alaska all year, yet right now, there is a very large mass of very warm water building in the NE Pacific that looks to be expanding toward the east and south– almost down to the Pacific NW now. If the trend continues, you may get a reversal of this cooler weather with a warmer fall and winter. Something to watch for…
CRS, Dr.P.H. says:
August 19, 2010 at 9:24 pm
…I’m looking forward to a nice, long, ice-fishing season in northern Illinois, just like last winter’s!
Are we still considered to be in a solar minimum? There seems to be some dispute about that.
_____
The sun is definitely past the solar minimum and is increasing in sunspot activity and irradiance since the minimum of 2008-2009. We will see steady increases of both in 2011, 2012, and peaking in late 2013? (maybe even early 2014?). Expect another El Nino to occur in 2012-2013 near the Solar Max, so even if the Solar Max event is weaker than normal, the El Nino near this period should push Global temps to new instrument records.
Michael, you are mistaken. It should be thus:
The lesson they will never acknowledge. It’s the Sun Stupid! 🙂
R. Gates says:
August 19, 2010 at 10:00 pm
Even NOAA says you are mistaken:
What are the U.S. impacts of La Niña?
La Niña often features drier than normal conditions in the Southwest in late summer through the subsequent winter. Drier than normal conditions also typically occur in the Central Plains in the fall and in the Southeast in the winter. In contrast, the Pacific Northwest is more likely to be wetter than normal in the late fall and early winter with the presence of a well-established La Niña. Additionally, on average La Niña winters are warmer than normal in the Southeast and colder than normal in the Northwest.
—————-
The question for the Pacific Northwest is not where the warm water is during La Nina, it’s the path of the storms. We can be either polar cold & dry, or in snowfall city.
CRS, Dr.P.H. says:
August 19, 2010 at 9:24 pm
In some ways, we are still in a minimum, in other ways, we are no longer in a deep solar minimum.
The total sunspot area is locked to the 10.7cm flux, unlike the weak & tiny spots that generally inhabit much of the SSN.
There has been zero growth trend in Sunspot Area since February, and zero flux growth. If this does not change by the end of this year, cycle 24 will have undercut all cycles since the photoheliographic records began in 1874.
The sun is currently spotless.
CRS, Dr.P.H. says:
August 19, 2010 at 9:24 pm
…I’m looking forward to a nice, long, ice-fishing season in northern Illinois, just like last winter’s!
Are we still considered to be in a solar minimum? There seems to be some dispute about that.
_____________________________________________
That is an interesting question.
Technically we are considered to be “ramping-up” but the sun is still rather “lethargic” If you look at the past recent sunspot minimums such as cycles 20, 21 and 22 you will see the minimums had as many spots as the sun does now. Cycle 21 had a rather active minimum for example. Between 15 and 25 spots. Right now NOAA has the count under 24 and Layman’s has the count under 14. It might be interesting to compare the F10.7 flux for the minimums of the active cycles.
Sunspot graphs by cycle
http://www.ips.gov.au/Educational/2/3/1
http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50
F10.7 for 1954 (cycle 19) and now
http://www.leif.org/research/F107%20at%20Minima%201954%20and%202008.png
http://fdab.gsfc.nasa.gov/Symposium/Session3_No2.pdf
Try this for the Indian Ocean Dipole.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
rbateman says:
August 19, 2010 at 10:37 pm
“…There has been zero growth trend in Sunspot Area since February, and zero flux growth. If this does not change by the end of this year, cycle 24 will have undercut all cycles since the photoheliographic records began in 1874.
The sun is currently spotless.”
Yes, not typical solar minimum. Here’s a few ‘lowlights’ from the Solen solar activity report for August 20, 2010 at 03:25 UTC:-
“The geomagnetic field was quiet on August 19. Solar wind speed ranged between 300 and 339 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 77.9. The planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap – based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.6). Three hour interval K indices: 12120121 (planetary), 12221101 (Boulder).
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 1 spotted region. Region 11097 reemerged with a single tiny spot in the trailing section of the large plage area.
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) – August 17-19: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were seen in LASCO or STEREO images.
Coronal holes – A large recurrent coronal hole (CH418) in the northern hemisphere will likely be Earth facing on August 21-23. The leading part of CH418 nearly closed on August 19 due to new corona caused by slowly emerging flux at the southern border of the coronal hole.”
The solar ramp-up seems comatosed at the moment, and unless activity starts to increase soon, we’re in for colder times ahead with cooler SST and a bad NH winter.
Global Sea Surface Temps still headed down
Not in Queensland.
http://www.news.com.au/features/environment/queensland-fish-species-migrating-south-due-to-climate-change/story-e6frflp0-1225907524941
R. Gates says:
August 19, 2010 at 10:08 pm
The sun is definitely past the solar minimum and is increasing in sunspot activity and irradiance since the minimum of 2008-2009. We will see steady increases of both in 2011, 2012, and peaking in late 2013? (maybe even early 2014?). Expect another El Nino to occur in 2012-2013 near the Solar Max, so even if the Solar Max event is weaker than normal, the El Nino near this period should push Global temps to new instrument records.
Forecasting weather now are you? Basing this on actual data?
From the data I found sun is still not quite out of the minimum, there is a little more activity then zero, but not much. Minimum went into 2010…but I digress on that point. But I will remember your prediction of weather (or climate since I forgot we are talking about warmth and not cold.)..
I wonder if you looked up what the Atlantic and PDO’s will be like in 2013/2014, because frankly those have a much larger impact then the 1.1 degrees C we have warmed since the LIA. And it would take a heck of an el nino to top 1998 even if those were both warm since 1998 was an unusually warm el nino.
Since you made a prediction, I will make one. We will see the solar maximum in about 2015/2016 (I believe it appears we are coming out of solar minimum slowly). El nino in 2013/2014 will barely be noticed because at this point Atlantic will begin turning cold…And with a cold Pacific its effects will be less then usual. Solar maximum will impact at about same time as a la nina, so that will also be countered for the most part.
So all in all, I think we will drop sharply in temperature with our current la nina, a steady decrease with the el nino you talked about, and a larger plunge when la nina hits again. But then again, I am just basing my “weather” predictions off of old trends, and thoughts I have on the current solar minimum which seems to throw any prediction out the window really… so maybe I am wrong.
But since we are putting predictions out there: I have been right all except once over the last 4 years predicting weather for the next couple of seasons….
And my prediction for our fall/winter here in the midwest: Slightly above average temperatures until frost hits about one month ahead of time. After this, expect a slightly below average temperature winter with weird temperature swings, and interesting storms. Interesting could mean some big storms and quick ones…but these storms will come with “winter heat waves” and “arctic cold snaps” so temperatures will be all over the charts. Be prepared for the big storms.
I did do a pacific northwest prediction (I was asked), I basically found it likely that they will have winter hit early as well, and will be dryer then usual and very very cold. Based off of other people, looks like I am basing my trends off of option B for La Nina. I look at charts and note trends, so since it seems the pacific northwest prediction is a crapshoot, I will have 50% chance of being right…lets see how it turns out.
Who knows? that is my first prediction for the Pacific Northwest which I do not have as much experience with dealing with outside of charts, so come back next spring if I am wrong…
Would I be right in thinking that as the sea surface temperatures cooled, that the atmosphere temperature could rise owing to the sea releasing heat into the atmosphere and that would be why land surface temperatures are not showing a short-term, cooling trend yet?
# stevengoddard says: August 19, 2010 at 8:42 pm
“Given that the oceans make up 70% of the earth, why aren’t UAH temperatures coming down with the SSTs?”
A clue is sometimes possible if the analysis distinguishes between summer and winter temperatures at higher latitude, e.g. north of 40°N, as it reduces the direct influence of the sun. The higher the latitude region the more it is possible to identify the role of the ocean during one season, or over a longer period of time. For example: What caused or supported the sudden Artic warming (and subsequently of the Northern Hemisphere) since winter 1919, lasting until 1940? http://www.arctic-warming.com/ In this case only the winter temperature increase was very significant, compared with the modest summer periods.
R. Gates says:
August 19, 2010 at 9:55 pm
now that is pure nonsense. A few months of lag is usual.
There is a record of 30 years of lower trends in the troposhere than measured on the surface, significantly falsifying either model predictions or surface measurement data or both.
Since the peak of 2010 is similar to the peak of 1998, we have to compare these two years:
1998:
0.76 (February); 0.53; 0.76; 0.65; 0.57; 0.52; 0.52; 0.45; 0.41; 0.19; and 0 after 13 month, -0.12 after 16 month, -0.24 after 23 month
2010:
0.66 (March); 0.50; 0.54; 0.44; 0.49
What can one expect? The whole world to cool down in a few days? We will know more in spring of 2012.
Reading R Gates comments, I suspect he is no longer claiming to be partly sceptical…..
” R. Gates says:
August 19, 2010 at 9:55 pm
stevengoddard says:
August 19, 2010 at 8:42 pm
Given that the oceans make up 70% of the earth, why aren’t UAH temperatures coming down with the SSTs?
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/
_______
This is probably one of the best questions asked so far. Tropo temps have been running high for quite some time…and let’s see, what is that molecule that has increased 40% in the troposphere in the past few hundred years that GCM’s just happen to have predicted will increase tropo temps? Oh yeah…CO2. And this is of course where “warmists” and skeptics diverge in opinion…yet what mechanism do skeptics find right now for the record high tropo temps?”
And Sea Surface temperatures are 0.24F cooler than this date 18/8 last year and indeed close to 2008. That I do not understand. Why is near surface layer so much warmer when sea surface is so relatively cool? I am a sitter on the fence and it will be interesting to see if temperatures remain steady as they have been since 1998 or if another “lift” is in the pipeline. I would have thought that by now we should have seen a slight decrease in global temperatures.
“R. Gates says:
August 19, 2010 at 10:08 pm
The sun is definitely past the solar minimum and is increasing in sunspot activity and irradiance since the minimum of 2008-2009.”
The only thing that’s clearly increasing is the exaggeration of the sunspot number by NOAA et al.
At this rate we will be lucky if SC 24 reaches sunspot max of 50. In 2006 it was predicted that the smoothed sunspot number for Aug 2010 would be around 140. Today predictions for SSN for Aug 2010 are at 19.5 based on recent numbers, and that’s with the exaggerated counts. Whilst some now claim sunspot number is irrelevant, solar flux has just dropped below 80 again. Not quite the “ramp up” you would expect 2 years and 1 month after official SF minimum.
“yet what mechanism do skeptics find right now for the record high tropo temps?”
As per my New Climate model the quiet sun and poleward jets actually reflects a reduction of energy loss from troposphere to stratosphere so it takes longer for El Nino warmth to exit the system.
It’s obvious really. The stratosphere has been warming slightly since the sun settled down. A warming stratosphere increases the temperature inversion at the tropopause so energy moves upward through it more slowly. As part of that process the polar high pressure cells grow stronger and move more equatorward.
The reason for the warming stratosphere is linked to the quieter sun so something about the sun’s effect on the atmosphere above the stratosphere must be reducing upward energy loss to space.
The opposite occurred during the late 20th century period of a more active sun.
Interesting that the arctic sea is colder, northwest of Russian heatwave and fires.
However the north pole camera shows that the recent warm spell at the pole was so warm the snow turned pink. Everyone panic! Aurrgh!
Oh wait. That’s just the hue of the beginning of the arctic sunset.
Never mind.
It actually is a very pretty picture, for the north pole. It is interesting to compare the state of the ice to other years, where slush around the base of the camera was so bad that the camera was starting to tilt. This year the camera looks ready to last through the winter.
Someone with more time on their hands than I have ought to write biographies of north pole cameras. It is interesting to poke through the archives of pictures.
Are those cameras solar powered? Do they automatically shut down around September 21?
Can someone explain the red colour in the Arctic ocean? According to DMi the recent water temperature is 0 to 2°C. How can it be that the SST anomaly is +5°C there? Meaning the normal Arctic ocean temperature is -5 to -3° C?
thanks
Stephen Wilde says: “The increase in cloud cover over oceans fits perfectly with my New Climate Model…”
This new mantra of yours is remarkably similar to the repeated and irking “consistent with GCM projections” statement made AGW proponents. The differences, GCM projections are documented and are verifiable. Your New Climate Model provides no data, has no numerical documentation (exists only in your imagination) and, therefore, cannot be verified or disproved.
Now for my question: A major factor that impacts sea surface temperatures is change in wind speed. Example: During an El Nino, there are changes in Walker and Hadley Circulation that cause reductions in wind speed over the tropical Atlantic. With the slower winds, there is less evaporation and less upwelling of cooler subsurface waters (and less entrainment of these waters from below the mixed layer). This is why SST rises in the tropical Atlantic during an El Nino. All of these processes are well documented and have been decades, yet they are not represented by your New Climate Model or discussed in your post here at WUWT. How does your New Climate Model account for these wind-speed-related rises and falls in SST?
Stephen Wilde says: “As per my New Climate model the quiet sun and poleward jets actually reflects a reduction of energy loss from troposphere to stratosphere so it takes longer for El Nino warmth to exit the system.”
As noted above, ENSO-induced SST variations outside of the tropical Pacific are caused by changes in wind speed. The question is, what has caused the delay in the increase in wind speed that would result in a decrease in SST?
” stevengoddard says:
August 19, 2010 at 8:42 pm
Given that the oceans make up 70% of the earth, why aren’t UAH temperatures coming down with the SSTs?”
If should be no trouble for you to make a graph with SST and UAH for 1998 and 2010. There is not enough time since the 2010 maximum to come to well-founded conclusions, but I suspect these two years look quite similar up to now. Will that be the case in one year or two, too?
stevengoddard says: {August 19, 2010 at 8:42 pm}
“Given that the oceans make up 70% of the earth, why aren’t UAH temperatures coming down with the SSTs?”
Perhaps there is no UHI in the middle of the oceans.