Still Cooling: Sea Surface Temperatures thru August 18, 2010
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) measured by the AMSR-E instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite continue the fall which began several months ago. The following plot, updated through yesterday (August 18, 2010) reveals the global average SSTs continue to cool, while the Nino34 region of the tropical east Pacific remains well below normal, consistent with La Nina conditions.
(click on it for the large, undistorted version; note the global SST values have been multiplied by 10)
Dr. Spencer points out that oceanic cloud cover seems to be peaking. See the rest here
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The increase in cloud cover over oceans fits perfectly with my New Climate Model which anticipates just such a development with consequent increased global albedo when the air circulation systems sink equatorward taking the clouds with them. Primarily that means the cloud bands of the various jet treams and the ITCZ.
One doesn’t necessarily need a change in total global cloud cover or type, just a latitudinal shift to alter the angle of incidence of incoming solar energy.
The inevitable consequence is of course less solar shortwave entering the oceans until the clouds move poleward again and I suspect that won’t happen until the sun gets more active.
The recent El Nino failed to push the jets as far poleward as similar El Ninos did during the late 20th Century when the sun was more active. The only variable that has changed since then is the level of solar activity.
Solar sunspot minimum in effect.
the evidence is piling up.
Paul Pierett
Stephen Wilde says:
August 19, 2010 at 8:24 pm
One other variable that has changed is that there was more volcanic activity this cycle than in the late 20th century. Remember all the pictures of volcanic sunsets on spaceweather?
Note that negative low-cloud feedback would conflict with all of the IPCC climate models, which exhibit various levels of positive cloud feedback.
Negative feedback is why there is nothing to worry about in global warming. Nature keeps itself in balance. If manmade emissions take Nature out of balance it would already be showing in the data. But as Richard Lindzen continues to point out there is no imbalance in Nature showing in the data.
Given that the oceans make up 70% of the earth, why aren’t UAH temperatures coming down with the SSTs?
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/
I look forward to counting the death toll from the coming winter in the northern hemisphere. I’m sorry to be so blunt , but the warmists need to learn a lesson they will never forget.
stevengoddard,
I am pretty sure that there is a lag of a few months between the sea surface temperatures and the atmosphere as measured by UAH. So we wouldn’t expect it to come down until perhaps September or October. (I cannot remember the exact lag – it is around three months, I think.)
The lesson they will never forget? It’s the Sun Stupid!
Michael,
What can I say to a comment like that?
Michael, they won’t get it. The media will hide it. This isn’t science, this is politics of the worst sort. Note, there are some people who truely believe in AGW, but I’m convinced that most of the drivers know d*mn good and well that AGW is a scam to gain money and political power.
perhaps someone could inform mark (on the MSM payroll) morford, cos he’s convinced the SF ocean is steaming up, while the world goes to CAGW hell all around him:
Aug 18: San Francisco Chronicle: Mark Morford: Thank God global warming is a hoax
I am delighted to be reassured by the fringe right wing that the piles of dead bodies, millions of lost homes, and even the very sun itself are part of a vast conspiracy, a plot to form an evil one-world government, a lefty liberal charade even in places that don’t understand or care what the hell a liberal is…
Because otherwise, wow, what sort of hell is this? Pakistan, Russia, China, Greenland, Niger and on and on it goes. Unprecedented heat waves, scorched crops, giant icebergs, savage droughts, dire emergencies, thousands dead here and 10,000 more over there and nothing like these events in the history of the world, ever…
***Heck, even here in the eco-terrorist homeland of San Francisco, they say the change in ocean temperatures will soon mean Fog City will be entirely fog bound, edge to edge, nearly year round. But I repeat: It’s not our fault. Seven billion rapacious, industrialized bipeds have the impact of a feather…
I mean, so what if giant icebergs four times the size of Manhattan are suddenly breaking off in Greenland? That’s happening way, way up there. I’m overconsuming energy and blocking out inconvenient truths way, way down here. There is no cause/effect, no connection whatsoever, never mind that dark, nagging sense of self-wrought doom, deep in my bones. I know that’s just a liberal lie, an implant, completely futile — just like those failed climate talks in Copenhagen, and the soon-to-be-failed ones coming up shortly in Mexico. I mean, whew.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2010/08/18/notes081810.DTL
David Gould says: wrote
August 19, 2010 at 8:56 pm
Michael,
“What can I say to a comment like that?”
Thank you.
It’s the lurkers I am writing this for.
I am getting the first benefits of that low cloud cover and cooler oceans here in NW Calif. This is the coolest summer here in a long time. The sunlight on the ground seems dimmed, and many describe the Sun’s color as distinctly lemony white, not the yellowish sun normally seen.
Michael,
If you are writing for the lurkers, I heartily approve of you continuing to make such comments.
I am very worried that the Pacific Northwest is in for a bad winter while the man-made propaganda machine is preparing us for palm trees. It is bizarro world when when we pay an extra government tax to keep ourselves from freezing to death in order to make ourselves even colder.
What is the explanation for the unusually large divergence between global and nino 3.4 temps from 2002-2003?
…I’m looking forward to a nice, long, ice-fishing season in northern Illinois, just like last winter’s!
Are we still considered to be in a solar minimum? There seems to be some dispute about that.
The global temperature has been cooling, but it is still noticeably warmer than at the same date in 2007 as the 07/08 La Nina developed, despite the fact that this La Nina seems to be clearly more advanced in its development.
Very early days yet as the significant cooling (of global temperatures) for a La Nina really only begins around November, but so far the signs are favourable that next year will be the warmest year with a La Nina in the temperature record, as SSTs do tend to cool earlier, and so far the cooling response is behind schedule.
As long as the blue line in Roy’s chart is above the red line that is evidence for overall warming, and if you want cooling, you are looking for the blue line to drop below the red.
p.s. some have asked questions about what the lag is between ENSO and global temperatures. It varies from month to month. Both ENSO and global temperuatres tend to peak/bottom out at around the same time – January, and the lag appears through the rest of the year as ENSO goes to neutral quite quickly, whereas the temperature is much slower to relax to a roughly neutral state, and when a new ENSO state starts around mid year there is little temperature response at first until a fast response develops around Nov/Dec.
Doesn’t anyone working for the government know anything about cartography? The map claims white regions indicate sea-ice.
And the black regions indicate what? 0.0 Lat., -85 Long. ??
Rhoda R says: wrote
August 19, 2010 at 8:59 pm
“Michael, they won’t get it. The media will hide it. This isn’t science, this is politics of the worst sort. Note, there are some people who truely believe in AGW, but I’m convinced that most of the drivers know d*mn good and well that AGW is a scam to gain money and political power.”
So the dead body count in Peru alone in the southern hemisphere this year is 400+.
People do adapt to conditions. Maybe that’s why the dead body count is going down, down there.
The nanny state should jump all overt the winter death thing.
It reminds me of the nanny state requiring all kids to wear a helmet while riding a bicycle.
Oh, Johnny died when he fell of his bicycle. Lets make every kid where a helmet while riding a bike. Disclosure: I own a helmet making factory. The kids still have a better chance of being struck by lightning twice in the same year than being killed on a bicycle when not wearing a helmet. The nanny state teaches people not to be responsible for their mistakes.
rbateman says:
August 19, 2010 at 9:08 pm
…..cooler oceans here in NW Calif.
If you use binoculars can you see the purple water out there? 😉
http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/5309/asstanomnightcurrent081.png
I can see a cold winter for the northern 1/2 of the United States coming:
http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/6654/bsstanomnightcurrent081.png
April E. Coggins says:
August 19, 2010 at 9:18 pm
“I am very worried that the Pacific Northwest is in for a bad winter..”
It is hard to predict the wind direction but if the winter’s winds come mainly off the N. Pacific expect not too cold winter with lots of snow. If the winds come from the north, off the continent, expect less snow and more cold. Some discussion here:
http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/PDO.htm
(scroll down to large table)
Michael says:
August 19, 2010 at 8:47 pm
They will learn nothing, having hid the events in S. America.
It is the poor & homeless who will bear the cold and economic depression.
Weep for them, for their numbers have swelled.
Do you see all those yellow orange and red bits on the first chart above?
That’s where all of Hansens thermometres are located.
By hook or by crook, 2010 will be the hottest year on record, duly trumpeted just before the Mexico COP meeting in November.
The Pacific looks well into La Nina phase, but not the RoW. The AMO seems pretty warm.
Does the Indian Ocean Dipole have a warm vs. cool phase, or is it just shifting the heat around? I tried looking it up, but no found definitive comment on that.