Guest post by Paul Vaughan, M.Sc. – August 18, 2010
Scientists characterize Earth rotation velocity using a variable they call length of day (LOD). The rate of change of LOD (LOD’) is related to global average wind patterns. Changes in wind patterns affect temperature patterns.
See the graphic below.
Could it be that apparent relationships between the rate of change of solar cycle length (SCL’), LOD’, & North Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature (AMO = Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) are independent?
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UPDATE: Paul asked me to add these two graphs, he writes:
Notes on notation:
GLAAM = global atmospheric angular momentum
NOR = nutation in obliquity residual
[] indicates time-integration
SOI = Southern Oscillation Index
f(x) on the SOI, GLAAM, LOD graph indicates a filter that isolates interannual features. This result has been known to scientists for decades, so my SOI, GLAAM, LOD graph is simply a sample of what I discovered last year when I audited their claims using my own approaches. (If anyone wants the literature references, please feel welcome to request them and I’ll dig them out.)
Solar-Terrestrial Coincidence?
Paul Vaughan, M.Sc. – August 18, 2010
Scientists characterize Earth rotation velocity using a variable they call length of day (LOD). The rate of change of LOD (LOD’) is related to global average wind patterns. Changes in wind patterns affect temperature patterns.
Could it be that apparent relationships between the rate of change of solar cycle length (SCL’), LOD’, & North Atlantic Ocean sea su
I have long believed LOD and AMO are dependent on SCL. More importantly, it looks like LOD and SCL are footnoted (1) but I see no footnote. Am I missing something?
Questions:
1) Could you cross plot LOD & AMO & give us an R^2? Visual correlations vs time can be mis-leading.
2) Can you plot the LOD vs PDO & ENSO, along with R^2 for those as well.
3) Can you please site your sources for the data?
This will all help clarify this post.
Thanks
JL
I do not have the numbers, so I can’t say much, but my eyeball non-parametric rank correlation on those things sure does not look to be zero. The correlation on SCL’ seems a little weaker. Conservation of momentum considering the earth and its atmosphere as a closed system would indicate to me that normal cyclonic flow and length of day would have some interaction. How much I would not care to estimate.
Concomittant variables are quite a commonplace phenomenon in geophysics. I’m not sure what you’re ultimately suggesting about the variables shown (which I assume to be first-difference series of one kind or another). Could you give us more of a clue as to plausible mechanisms and provide some indication of the coherence at peak spectral frequencies?
I wonder if Vukcevic has a graph or two to go along with this?
I probably don’t want to get into another facet of correlation of which I’m not aware, but my curiosity prevails.
As stated, I’m not familiar with this at all. Are you saying the winds effect the rotational speed of the earth?
I’m not the smartest guy in the room but I always though length of day decreased when the world got colder and there was more mass at the poles (snow and ice) rather than as water at the equator. Kind of like a skater concentrating more mass on the axis of rotation. Is this way too simplistic?
Sidorenkov has a brilliant and clear explanation from first principles (conservation of angular momentum, friction of winds with surface, friction of magma with crust, etc.) of the earth’s rotational instabiliities, including length of day.
Abstract of his 2005 paper in Astronomical and Astrophysical Transactions
Vol. 24, No. 5, October 2005, 425–439:
Physics of the Earth’s rotation instabilities
N. S. SIDORENKOV*
Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia, 11–13 Bolshoi Predtechensky Pereulok,
Moscow 123458, Russia
(Received 7 November 2005)
This paper generalizes the results of investigations on the instabilities of the Earth’s rotation and
related geophysical processes. Long series of observations of the Earth’s orientation parameters are
demonstrated. The tidal variations in the length of the day are described. The temporal variations in the
atmospheric angular momentum and their contribution to the instabilities of the Earth’s rotation are
studied. The mechanisms of seasonal variations in the length of the day and polar motion are discussed.
The probable geophysical processes responsible for the decades-long (2–100 years) instability of the
Earth’s rotation are discussed
In the last line of the post: “…are independent?”
Seems this in not what is meant.
I wonder if Vukcevic has a graph or two to go along with this?
I put the over/under on that at four graphs.
Re: John Lohman
Thank you for your comment John. The prime symbol (‘) indicates rate of change.
Best Regards.
Any chance they could all have the same smoothing as SCL in a separate graphic?
“Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action.”
~ Ian Flemming ~
Or, in our case:
“Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Thrice is confirmation.”
In order to put the cherry on the cake you could consider to add the CO2 graph.
The moon and sun both interact with the earths rotation, over various cycles of different length creating these changes in LOD. They both also form a gravitational bulge in the ocean closest to them and its the interaction of these various tides that form the various tides (otherwise everytime would be the same). There is also a documented land tide that co-incides with the tide.
If they can form a bulge in the ocean and the land, could they also not form a buldge in the atmosphere (changing the lapse rate but not pressure)or displacement of it (due to the tidal bulge) and affect wind direction and speed, and maybe even indirectly, cloud cover and precipitation?
Many early civilisations used the moon and to predict good fishing and calm or bad weather, including the Moari here in New Zealand. Also, the movement on the tide, via friction with the air above can also generate wind or move mist, thats why sea mist often rolls in when the tide changes.
I think theres a lot we still dont understand!
How is SCL (and SCL’) determined at several points within a SC? We got into enough arguments trying to identify the end of SC23, trying to identify “the point where we were 90% through SC23 seems even harder.
Re: Jeff L
I have time to address one of your questions now Jeff. (Maybe there will be time to address others later.)
Data sources are as follows:
1) Sunspot Numbers (R):
vertical (in one column) format:
ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SUNSPOT_NUMBERS/MONTHLY.PLT
tabular (12 months per row) format:
ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SUNSPOT_NUMBERS/MONTHLY
info: ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SUNSPOT_NUMBERS/SS-10CM.txt
2) Length of Day (LOD):
1832-1997:
http://hpiers.obspm.fr/eoppc/series/longterm/jpl_c.eop
The series was extended (1997-2010) by computing summaries from 1962+ daily data:
http://www.iers.org/products/177/11221/orig/eopc04_IAU2000.62-now
3) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO):
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data
info: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/AMO/
R. de Haan wrote:
“In order to put the cherry on the cake you could consider to add the CO2 graph.”
I like this idea. It might be the cherry that attracts funding…
Lance Wallace says:
August 18, 2010 at 5:16 pm
Sidorenkov has a brilliant and clear explanation from first principles (conservation of angular momentum, friction of winds with surface, friction of magma with crust, etc.) of the earth’s rotational instabiliities, including length of day.
Abstract of his 2005 paper in Astronomical and Astrophysical Transactions
Vol. 24, No. 5, October 2005, 425–439:
Sid discussed a lot of interesting stuff. I hate this kind of abstract – “this was discussed, that was discused”. It tells us nothing.
Re: Ric Werme
Solar cycle length was determined objectively using a Morlet 2pi wavelet.
If wind friction is indeed the mechanism of AMO affecting LOD, then why is the AMO predominant – would not the PDO from the larger ocean have a larger effect? WUWT?
One thing is clear – AMO in the last century or two has been regular and sinusoidal, and is not on the downward turn from the peak in about 2005. Combined with negative PDO, this is the basis of predictions by many e.g. Joe Bastardi of a period of cooling ahead, of a couple of decades at least.
Help me with the maths – does SLC’ mean extending solar cycle length, as is now happening? (I’m a biologist.)
For a recent paper see:
N. SIDORENKOV, I.R.G. WILSON, THE DECADAL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE EARTH’S ROTATION AND IN THE CLIMATE CHARACTERISTICS, 2009
Do you have a future SCL graph, so we can see what the future trends may be?
Thanks.
.
Makes intuitive sense. Sunspots affect the strength of the magnetosphere. It’s harder to rotate a permanent magnet inside an external field (because of hysteresis, I think?) so the earth should be slower, and its own magnetic field should be more variable, when the sun’s field is stronger.
Nicola Scafetta, Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications, Preprint submitted to J. of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics May 26, 2010
Decadal variations in geophysical processes and asymmetries in the solar motion about the Solar System’s barycentre
Nikolay Sidorenkov, Ian Wilson, and Anatoly Khlystov
Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 12, EGU2010-9559, 2010
Irregularities in the Earth’s rotation and the prognosis for the global component of the atmospheric angular momentum
L. D. Akulenko, Yu. G. Markov, V. V. Perepelkin and I. V. Skorobogatykh
Doklady Physics Volume 55, Number 5, 217-222, DOI: 10.1134/S1028335810050046