Guest post by Ric Werme
The CSU Klotzbach/Gray Aug 18-31 hurricane forecast is out. Based on the NOAA historical tropical storm and hurricane frequency below, they are betting on an uptick in activity.
They’re still looking for active weather:
We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by heightened amounts (130 percent or more) of activity relative to climatology.
More:
The above-average forecast is due to a combination of factors. The primary factor is that most of the global models are very enthusiastic about TC development over the next few days. Most of the models indicate that the wave currently moving off of the west coast of Africa will develop into a classic Cape Verde-type hurricane in the next few days. These systems typically propagate across the tropical Atlantic and generate large amounts of ACE in the process. Most of the models indicate that the system should be entering an environment favorable for storm intensification, and therefore, the likelihood of this system having a long lifespan across the basin looks good. Models also indicate that TC development in the western Caribbean as well as additional development in the tropical Atlantic also is possible over the next week or so. We do not expect the MJO to play much of a role in modulating storm activity, and since we overall have very favorable climate conditions for an active season, we believe that the next two weeks should be active.
So, things are primed and ready to fire, it’s just that the trigger isn’t here yet, but it’s coming. (Barring unforseen events. There’s always that out….)
They also look at the past two-week forecast:
The two-week forecast of tropical cyclone activity from August 4 – August 17 did not verify well. Activity at above-average levels was predicted, while observed activity was at below-average levels. The primary reasons why we believe activity was reduced during the two-week period were due to dry mid levels in the atmosphere and increased vertical stability This dryness was not expected. Also, several upper-level cold lows intruded into the tropics during the period, imparting upper-level westerly shear and hindering storm formation. However, it is not unusual for the first half of August to be almost tropical cyclone-free.
The only ACE generated during the period was by the remnants of Tropical Storm Colin that regenerated on August 5 but was then torn apart by shearing from an upper-level low on August 8. Our forecast was for an above-average ACE value of 10 or more units (>130% of climatology), while a below-average ACE of 2 units (22%) occurred. The Madden-Julian Oscillation was of a fairly weak magnitude throughout the period and likely did not play much of a role in modulating TC activity.
So, a good collection of suppressors – dry mid-level air and upper level shear
blowing the cloud tops off. While K&G have said the short time frame makes it
difficult come up with meaningful comparisons, predicting > 130% and getting
only 22% must be tough to see.
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“predicting > 130% and getting only 22% must be tough to see.”
Divergences can make for great learning opportunities. I have a hunch that this pair won’t disappoint.
Two days ago, hurricane forecaster Jim Rouiller said :
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-08-16/low-pressure-system-returns-to-gulf-may-become-storm.html
That one disappeared before it even started developing.
Yes, sooner or later we will have tropical development, and sooner or later the ice will start to diminish in the Antarctic, and trend downwards from a record level. Our climate scientists are brilliant.
Yawn…….
It should be kept in mind that this forecast, and the previous (fail) forecast are only weather forecasts, though from the sound of it, based on climate models. It should also be pointed out that a hurricane is weather, a hurricane season is climate. There have been two failed season predictions in the last two years. Will this be number 3? As the graphic shows, the next 4 to 6 weeks are the peak time. Time will tell and that time is here. For those who don’t already have it marked, this site shows the active depressions, storms and hurricanes.
JE
Hey! I just found their problem “Our forecast was for an above-average ACE value of 10 or more units (>130% of climatology)”. Everyone knows that “climatology” is a unit of error. 😉 pg
We shall see what we shall see.
For their sake I hope they’re right. Maybe we’ll also be spared the sight of weather forecasters reporting in breathless excitement on the remnants of a tropical depression reforming into a tropical depression. We’ll see how the next six weeks unfold and hopefully the forecasters can avoid getting all excited about possible tropical depressions or prematurely naming them before they turn into tropical storms.
Klotzbach and Gray have the balls to admit they were in error and not make foolish excuses. I would agree with their analysis. However, my Ouija Board says 75%, I don’t see the mid latitude dryness abating any time soon. Take that for what it is worth. Then what do us geologists know anyway.
I predict a humdinger of a Hurricane within three days either side of September 10th. I also predict a three-day period of well above average ACE (whatever that is :^) between now and September 15th (>140%).
If I am correct, I will point to my published predictions and crow about it.
If not, well, correct predictions are tough to make, especially about the future.
[Posted onto a Pro Met board today]
In case you all need a little comic relief, Just some of my ideas…I thought I would post this in here…let me know later if this ends up better than a dart board approach, I was forecasting 8-3-3 for this year. (10 to 1 I get banned)
2010 detailed Hurricane forecast
Current mood: adventurous
Back on the 15th. I climbed out on a big limb, with chainsaw in tow, with this forecast?
There are four ingredients needed to make a large storm, available heat energy, moisture to change phase states to generate the low pressure zone, ion potentials to drive the “precipitation” (not just condensation), and a global lunar tidal effect to drive the wind patterns that tighten up, as the tropical air mass that becomes the tropical storm, moves off of the ITCZ and further away from the equator, the Coriolis effect kicks in and strengthens, to assist the formation of the cyclonic circulation along with the associated ionic drives.
We have been having three of these ingredients showing up in the three named disturbances so far. However the global “pole to equator ion charge gradient” is currently stagnating, all of the seasonal drivers of these shifts in charge gradients will occur later in the year than is the”Normal” (although nonrandom pattern of distribution.)
The solar cycle has been slow, but is starting to pick up as we approach the heliocentric conjunctions of three of the four outer planets that drive the global ion potentials that create and drive these large storms. I have posted a detailed forecast of the dates to expect these storms to be produced several time over the past year.
Due to the geomagnetic effects of the increased coupling, of the solar fields extended out from flares and coronal holes, as the Earth passes through the focused area that lines up heliocentrically with the outer planets:
Neptune on the 20th of August, the Earth will have an increased homopolar generator charge potential inducted into it, then relaxed over the next two weeks (till end of August 2010) that will induce the typical discharge pattern that generates the large flows of ions that allow the global tropical storms to attain sizable effects above cat 1 – cat 2 levels, because of increased wind and precipitation production, powered by the enhanced action of the opposing ion charges swept into the cyclonic flow structure.
September 21st through 24th 2010 will see the bigger set of conjunctions that will do a much better job of driving the intensity of resultant global tropical and extra-tropical storms, that form on the discharge side of the ion flux patterns, after these dates.
No the season is not over yet.
The lunar declinational tides that peak at the culmination of the declinational sweep occur at Maximum South on 19th August then heads North with tropical moisture in tow until the effects has run its course by the 2nd to 4th of September 2010, is the window of opportunity for the first weaker outbreak of global TS.
The lunar declination is Maximum South again on the 15th of September 2010, ahead of the peak of charging of the Uranus / Jupiter heliocentric conjunction of the 24th of September 2010, and it should be in phase with the movement of tropical moisture laden warm air crossing the equator following the moon, as it moves North across the equator on the 23rd of September.
The same day of the peak charging effects of the homopolar generator as the Earth responds to the increased inductive effects carried on the solar wind to affect the coupling through to the outer planets from the sun out of a large coronal hole created on the sun just for the purpose of providing the magnetic field energy needed. This powers up the cycle of positive ion charging along the ITCZ, by pushing more moisture into the lower atmosphere, to then add drive to the ion discharging phase, driving the resultant outbreak of global wide intense tropical storms, that will occur post conjunction.
By the time the Moon reaches maximum North declination on the 29th of September 2010, the global ACE values will be close to peak for the year. Inertial momentum of the global systems should carry on the enhanced zonal flow through the next two weeks.
With the continual decreasing electromagnetic coupling as the Earth moves past these outer planets the severe weather activity levels, will drop with continued attempted recovery enhancements at the lunar declinational culminations, until by the time of the synod conjunction of Venus and Earth on the 29th of October 2010, we will see a last hurrah, then a slow shift into the storms of a deep cold NH winter.
Richard Holle
These guys are praying to the climatology gods for a storm!
This is climate science in sharp relief is it not?
Make a prediction, when the prediction does not align itself with reality then produce many excuses as to why the prediction failed leaving out the real reasons why the predictions failed.
Prediction-failure-excuses-prediction-failure-excuses-prediction…..etc etc.
A failed climate state prediction does not fail because of a complex interaction of weather anomalies, it fails because the prediction was flawed because the prediction was based on flawed logic and reasoning. This is the crux of the problem, until the climate science community faces up to the fact that basing predictions on flawed ideology and flawed data then they will always produce failed models and predictions.
I think I’ll agree with the forecast increased likelihood, but I’m basing this on neither models nor an historical graph showing an that increased likelihood should be becoming increasingly likely.
The north-south split off the east coast of the weather streaming across the US is coming to an end. The flushing of the G&C by the south split and it’s shielding of the G&C from easterly weather is going to be gone. This is going to allow the Cape Verde stream to shift north.
But it’s always been the case that things will likely ramp up, ’cause anything more than nothing has to be something.
Given their statement that
The two-week forecast of tropical cyclone activity from August 4 – August 17 did not verify well. Activity at above-average levels was predicted, while observed activity was at below-average levels.
how naive do they think we are that we should believe
We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by heightened amounts (130 percent or more) of activity relative to climatology. (whatever that means)
or
The above-average forecast is due to a combination of factors.
The first statement seems to indicate that they haven’t a clue as to which factors to take into account.
What happens when insurance companies, emergency service organisations and the like accept their ‘forecasts’ and expend money and resources ‘just in case’ they are correct? Will the doom-meisters accept responsibility for a waste of resources/time/effort or will they fall back on the ‘it’s better to be safe than sorry’ excuse for their scare-mongering?
“We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by heightened amounts (130 percent or more) of activity relative to climatology”
Replace climatology -a discipline- by any other discipline:
We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by heightened amounts (130 percent or more) of activity relative to sedimentology.
Does it make any sense or is it a poor translation?
Hasn’t anyone got a trick knee they can consult?
I’m going to bid a blind nil and call for no hurricanes cat 1 or above for the rest of the season. If I’m right, I might get a grant. I have a method.
It is about 3,800 miles from Cape Verde to Miami. It takes a “Cape Verde Hurricane” about 10 days to make that trip. Currently none have started. ACE is calculated every six hours. As the hours slip by then for the forecast to be fulfilled more and more energy will have to accumulate in the waning days of the forecast period.
Folks on the SE coast and Gulf coast may want to plan ahead and take a vacation in Idaho from Aug. 25th to Sep. 1. It is going to be an horrendous ride. Can’t go away. Stock up on beer and popcorn and watch the show!
I believe they’re talking about the entire Atlantic ocean, which is a large area no doubt, but looking at their chart and number of storms/hurricanes per 100 years peaking at September 10, it works out to just under 1 a year – in the entire atlantic. This is HUGE!! Better keep a sharp eye out for that one storm or you might miss it..
evanmjones says:
August 17, 2010 at 9:46 pm
Hasn’t anyone got a trick knee they can consult?
Yep, my ACL replacement on my trick left knee tells me when it’s going to rain in Aberdeen, Scotland (which it’s telling me it’s not), but I don ‘t think there are any Cape Verde drivers for TS development from the North East of Scotland into the Atlantic/Caribbean. Sorry.
A 130% hike in hurricanes prediction sounds like barbecue summer type wishful thinking to me. I suppose they have to predict something to justify their Catastrophes-R-Us grants…
slightly OT
“the primary factor is that most of the global models are very enthusiastic about TC development over the next few days.”
Really!
“The two-week forecast of tropical cyclone activity from August 4 – August 17 did not verify well”
One wonders if the models were “disappointed” with this prediction?
Science must be entering a new state when scientists openly attribute human feelings to climate models.
Is the relationship between man and machine becoming unhealthy? We know us non-scientists are often accused of having a suspect relationship with our cars or our table saws – but Scientists ?
Could saying climate models are garbage be seen as a hate-crime?
As my old grandmother used to say – “if you’re in love with a dung-heap, you won’t see a bad straw in it”.
Maybe we’re in need of some sensitivity training. Let’s hear it for the models.
Predictions, predictions, predictions.
The reality of predictions becoming reality, I think, are purely down to chance. There have been SO many dleiberately false predictions, or those which didn’t come to fruition for reasons not readily understood, I’m heartily sick of them.
Even weather forecasts are unreliable beyond a few days, so how does anyone seriously believe they can predict anything other than the occurrences which happen regularly (like tides, phases of the moon, the sun rising in the morning, etc.) – everything else must be wrapped in chaos, and nobody REALLY understands whats happening, or has any real clue about what is likely to occur – it’s mostly conjecture and guesswork, the results of which are more often down to luck rather than judgement. It’s all driven by money and a desire to control. One thing that WON’T be controlled by man in his infinite stupidity, is the climate.
Cold and warm periods recycle with relentless certainty – what isn’t certain is why or when, and those particular criteria are a long way from being understood, so basing predictions and alarmist portents of Armageddon on them is nonsensical. Ice comes and goes at the poles, and hedging your bets as to why, and what’s normal and what isn’t, and prognosticating in the dark without the true knowledge is daft. Science, alas, has degraded from the excitement and wonder of discovery, and the sharing and proving (or disproving) of information, to who gets what grant, how much, and whether or not it all fits in with the current political advocacy.
Sad days.
Nothing yet!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml
If you keep predicting a bad hurricane eventually you’ll be right. I ran some numbers through my model last night and it tells me there won’t be much activity in the next two weeks.
Expat in France says:
August 18, 2010 at 1:28 am
Expat,
I couldn’t agree with you more.
It’s a shame because I have to believe that at one time, when they first started out these “scientists” did so with awe and wonder at the natural world. They must have been driven by curiousity to endure the discipline of academia, and the beer-bongs.
Sometimes I can see in my minds eye Mann in the role of Chris Farley on “Tommy Boy”, after graduation with his buddies where he falls and crushes the table after a lengthy, inverted bong hit.
I still holdout and hope that one day soon some of them will stand up and ask themselves, “What have I become?”. I’ll continue to holdout for that day, but I won’t hold my breath.