By Steve Goddard
I need help from the readers to determine if 2010 will finish ahead or below 2005 – the red line in the DMI graph.
2010 is currently tracking just below 2005, but note there was a downwards dip in mid-September, 2005. What caused this?
The PIPS video below shows what happened in September, 2005.
In mid-September, strong winds started blowing off the East Siberian and Laptev Seas, which compressed the ice towards the North Pole. This caused the dip seen in the DMI graph.
The images below show the current date in 2005 and 2010 respectively. Note that 2005 had a lot of thin/low concentration ice in the Laptev/Kara Seas which was vulnerable to being blown around by the wind in September. The ice is less extensive, but thicker in that region in 2010.
What do you think? Will 2010 beat 2005? Please explain your reasoning.
I predict that … there WILL still be ice in the Arctic this Winter, contrary to what too many believe!
Here’s the graph I find most interesting: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
It shows the average air temp above 80 degrees north by DMI (Danish Meteorological Institute) and on that page you can also view the temps for prior years back to 1958. You can look at every single year and not find a summer with temps as cold as this year (though someone previously was kind enough to point out that the records back in the 60’s and 70’s were probably pretty skimpy and haphazard.)
As I said in a comment to another post, my understanding of summer temps is that the massive ice volume holds air temps to levels just above zero, much as ice cubes hold a glass of water at 0 degrees C until all the ice is gone. Consider this though. You can apply a significant heat to the water and as long as the ice is present the temp stays relatively constant. The ice just melts faster. Thus, while the ice is present the temp of the water isn’t a good indicator of how much heat energy is entering the water. However, once the glass of water starts to refreeze, that’s a very good indication that the heat source that was melting the ice has dissipated.
Well, in the arctic, the air is the water in the above discussion, and year after year there’s enough heat present to hold the air above the freezing point during most of the entire summer months. How much heat? You can’t tell, although a good measure of ice volume in the arctic (which we don’t have) could tell you (except for waves, etc., further confusing the issue.) However, just as with the glass of water, when the air temp in the arctic is allowed to go below freezing, the clear implication is that the heat source has diminished significantly. No matter how much heat was being supplied by the sun during the summer, temps are constrained by the ice and you can’t really tell what the situation is concerning the amount of heat present. Now, though, we’ve reached the point where whatever the heat supplied was, it’s dropped below the level needed to warm the air above freezing, and it’s happened 10-15 days earlier than normal.
Given this situation, I would be very nervous holding a forecast of a significant melt from this point forward. But maybe the temps will soon rise for a few weeks at least? Right now though, there are three things that agree with this being the beginning of a re-freezing of the arctic. 1) the melt pond in the camera shot at the north pole is not only clearly frozen over, but appears to be shrinking. 2) The 15% Ice Extent, Norsex graph on the Sea Ice Page has leveled off for at least the past three days, and 3) The Ice Area, Norsex graph right below it shows an actual increase in ice area over the past few days. Is this just weather? Probably, but right now it looks to me to be colder than normal in the Arctic regardless of what computer-generated anomalies might indicate.
But then, I’m not a scientist. I’m just trusting the DMI to be able to correctly log and average temperature readings. And, after all, isn’t temperature the reason we keep looking at all these proxies? Well, it appears to be unusually cold up there right now and has been all summer. For that matter, it froze longer this spring, and it’s apparently colder than normal, so why not freeze earlier this fall? That said, I have no specific forecast because I have no idea what the weather’s going to be in the Arctic for the next month.
Well I’ll just wait until the 2010 Catlin Ice Survey Team gets there along with their oil drums and finds a thin enough place to bore their sample hole to measure the ice thickness. Do they know they could save some money by just going back to where they simply tossed their oil drums out of the tent last year; and left them fouling up the place on the ice.
In the meantime I’ll just watch the JAXA slow motion movie of the event; and make a little side bet on Steve’s numbers.
Invariant:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/11/what-happened-in-2005-arctic-sea-ice/#comment-454451
Your link leads to a page with an article that says
“Updated May 20, 2010
By ANDREW C. REVKIN
”
and under it, it leads tohttp://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/02/science/earth/02arct.html?_r=1
and that article says
“By ANDREW C. REVKIN
Published: October 2, 2007”
So it looks like Andrew C. Revkin just recycles his 2007 material because, well, melt season is melt season, can’t let a sea ice recovery get in the way of a good story, right? At least he’s honest enough not to extrapolate a virtual 2008, 2009, 2010 with his 2007 flash animation. So, not quite GISS level, Mr. Revkin, not ruthless enough.
This is THEIR last decent summer to make the most out of it.
Way ahead of 2005, might exceed 2006->
1) The Sun has been at its lowest output since the Dalton minimum for 3 years.
2) The Pacific has given up its heat: El Nino is now La Nina. Time lag for Earth cooling, about 3 to 4 years for .05C (My simple Earth model).
3) The heat flow from the Equator to the Poles, instantaneously, has decreased due to the instantaneous Sun’s output reduction. Less heat in, warm Arctic due to years of active Sun, same rate of Arctic heat out; Arctic cools longer to stabilization.
4) The Atlantic is in a temperature reducing phase (contrary to the views of the oscillation folks). Again, lack of Solar energy.
5) Lack of Hurricanes is an indicator of cooling, due to lack of Solar energy.
6) Early onset of cold Arctic temperatures, well beneath the average for this time of year.
The Antarctic is our Winter model. It is on a cold, freezing rampage!!! This year far exceeds the “average”.
The little white lies, dishonesties and misrepresentations by the NYT and the BBC that i now see nearly every day reek of one thing.
Desperation.
My bet is on beating 2005. Where I live (the north of The Netherlands) it has been rather chilly of late. We’ve had a white christmas (quite unusual) and rather a long, cold and snowy winter. Summer hasn’t been much to speak of either; except for two weeks around the finals of the soccer-WC in June which were hot, it’s been more like fall during July and August so far.
Adding to this the cool picture of the globe I get through this site I think the table might be turning in favour of those thinking for themselves. My hopes are up. Even though I don’t like cold weater 😉
Keep up the excellent work!
If Big Al arrives up in the Arctic to see all the ice melting, freeze-up should start immediately…snic/
2005=2010 just a guess.
I’m not discounting the human factor. In my part of the world, if there is ice or snow underfoot, we put salt on it and it melts and becomes less slippery. Health and safety regulations demand safer environments. With all the observers up in the Arctic, don’t they all have the same human needs – not to slip over in icy conditions? The DMI chart may bear his out – ice and salt together melts at a lower temperature. So lower temperatures, less ice, more observers, better health and safety, no climate change… it all makes sense to me!
Reply to the ‘Cold Englishman’
The dear old Met Office seasonal forecasts were extremely useful and I shall miss them . Of course you have to know the code to use when you read thier forecast , it is of course the opposite of what they say its going to be , once this is sussed out their forecasts are extremely useful!!
Hmm.. By sleight of hand, here on Wotsup, DMI’s graph has become the ‘official’ arctic sea ice standard. Worrying.
DMI have spawned none other than Eigil Friis-Christensen, Henrik Svensmark, and K. Lassen, whose ‘research’ has crashed and burned!
Google them and join the dots. Champions of the “its the sun and cosmic rays, man” fraternity. If you visit DMI’s homepage, don’t expect to find details of their exploits posted in the English version. Thats only in Danish for domestic consumption!
It’s infectious!! I’m beginning to sense a conspiracy here (too)
As far as I can see it has a long way to go to get UP to 2005.
http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/ice_ext_n.png
However so long as you only look at the ONLY chart which shows that we are tracking 2005 I guess you’ll never believe that.
However you could LOOK at the ice itself to get a feel for where we are.
http://exploreourpla.net/explorer/?map=Arc&sat=ter&lon=180&lat=77&lvl=7&yir=2010&dag=222
Since the 2010 line is below the 2005 line, the niave forecast is that it will stay below it. To improve on that forecast would require actual information about what is happening there. There isn’t enough info in the graph to say much more than it’s now below the 2005 line and based on that graph is slightly more than 50% likely to stay below it, but I have no confidence in predictions based on that graph with no other evidence.
crosspatch says:
August 11, 2010 at 11:41 am
I believe what one must do is look at probabilities and not attempt to put too fine a point on a prediction.
Why not? Let’s have some fun.
John S. says:
August 11, 2010 at 11:41 am
Arctic air temperatures for 2010 are running well below 2005 temperatures. Therefore I predict that 2010 sea ice extent will exceed that of 2005
Seems like a good idea, if the winds cooperate.
Dave says:
August 11, 2010 at 1:12 pm
Daily totals are still well above 50sk loss a day. Until I see a slowdown of the melt, it projects as beating only 2007.”
50,000 sq km per day is not uncommon for a few days at this time of year. Look at that to drop markedly in the next 7 days. Going through the regions on Cryosphere Today most of the ice loss for the past few days has come from the Canadian Archipelago and the Greenland Seas. In all other regions ice loss has either stopped or extent is already starting to increase.
Certainly, neither the East Siberian or Kara Seas are showing ice loss, in fact the East Siberian is showing a slight increase. I would anticipate we’ll be seeing losses as low as 30k within days and potentially even an extent gain within 1 week.
David W
The “ice loss” in the Greenland Sea is because the flow of ice out the Fram Strait has for all intents and purposes shut down. In other words, it is retention rather than loss of ice.
Idiot,
DMI is the best source because they measure 30% concentration ice, which is more stable and filters out high frequency noise.
Ed Caryl says:
August 11, 2010 at 12:28 pm
The mid-September 2005 was a one-time event. Temperatures in Siberia south of the Kara and Laptev Seas are below normal and the ice is relatively thick north of there. Current air temperatures on the ice are at or below freezing. Nothing bad is going to happen to that ice. I expect the 2010 ice to track right along the 2005 line until mid-September, then cross over to positive territory
Fun prediction. And easy to understand.
Deanster
I tend to agree with you. It looks like 2010 may be the shortest melt season on record. It had the latest maximum and may well also have the earliest minimum.
stevengoddard says:
August 11, 2010 at 1:55 pm
R. Gates
In order for clouds to produce downwelling LW radiation, they had to have been first warmed by upwelling LW radiation. Not much of that over the ice, is there?
________
Plenty of heat coming off th warmer than normal water temps. There is a potential link to this warmer open water and general changes in Arctic weather patterns, from storminess to changes in the Arctic Dipole Anomaly. I believe Julienne is studying this, and many others are as well. You might even want to look into it yourself. Lot’s of links out there…
latitude says:
August 11, 2010 at 12:37 pm
Tom in Texas says:
August 11, 2010 at 12:21 pm
It appears to be a dip because of the convex shape of the curve in the 1st half of Sept.
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Agree, I don’t see a dip at all.
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Winds were taking a big inhale in the first half of the month and let out a big exhale in the second half. 🙂
Arctic ice is not going anywhere in my lifetime, that’s my only bet, and I don’t live anywhere near there so I don’t pay too much attention to it. I will defer to your fine analysis of that part of the world beings that you’ve done such a great job so far!
Being a tropical fish and all, this time of year the East coast of Africa near the Cape Verde Islands has my undivided attention. And it’s been pretty quiet so far (fingers crossed), but looking at today’s global IR and all that moisture coming across the Indian Ocean for the first time this year things might be changing soon. Global IR montage:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&AREA=global/stitched&PROD=ir&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=global&DISPLAY=Latest&ARCHIVE=Latest&CGI=global.cgi&CURRENT=20100811.1800.multisat.ir.stitched.Global.x.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15
Good luck with your study – looks to me like you’ve been right on the mark so far!
David W. says:
“Certainly, neither the East Siberian or Kara Seas are showing ice loss, in fact the East Siberian is showing a slight increase. I would anticipate we’ll be seeing losses as low as 30k within days and potentially even an extent gain within 1 week.”
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I would suggest that you are completely misunderstanding what is happening right now. The slow down in extent was based on divergence in the ice, which only spread the ice out and reduced concentrations, but did not necessarily (and most likely did not at all) reduce melt rates. Ice spread out in the E. Siberian and Kara Seas. The Kara in particular has seen lower concentrations since April with a big drop in June and warmer temps all summer.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.7.html
The possibility of the sea ice extent beginning to go up within a week seems remote at best. This is the danger and inaccuracy of mistaking a slow down in sea ice extent decline for a slow down in melting…it just isn’t necessarily true.