NASA announced that a massive solar flare that erupted Sunday should strike Earth some time tonite in the early AM hours (Correction, has struck Earth, details follow).
“This eruption is directed right at us and is expected to get here early in the day on Aug. 4,” said Leon Golub of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. “It’s the first major Earth-directed eruption in quite some time.”
The solar eruption, called a coronal mass ejection, was spotted by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory, which captures high-definition views of the sun at a variety of wavelengths. SDO was launched in February and peers deep into the layers of the sun, investigating the mysteries of its inner workings.
“We got a beautiful view of this eruption,” Golub said. “And there might be more beautiful views to come if it triggers aurorae.”
When a coronal mass ejection strikes Earth, solar plasma streams down the lines of force in Earth’s electromagnetic field, striking the upper atmosphere, where oxygen and nitrogen molecules become excited like the gas in neon signs, becoming aurorae, and triggering geomagnetic storms. Depending on the strength of the CME, aurorae can grow in size and brightness from the polar regions down to more temperate latitudes.
NASA and satellite manufacturers, however, are far more worried about damage to orbiting satellites.
The interwebs is coming alive with the first major solar storm of SC24. After remaining dormant since 2006, the Sun is finally coming alive.
UPDATE:
WATCH VIDEO: A solar eruption sends a wave of plasma hurtling towards Earth on August 1st, 2010. The event was captured by NASA satellites
Proton flux and magnetometer readings are showing beautiful spikes:
The Kp index has hit a 6 on its 0 to 9 scale. Based on this early data, this is classed as a moderate solar storm, not a major one as NASA and NOAA had earlier announced. There is minimal risk of damage to satellites.
UPDATE 2: WUWT commenter R. Gates notes that the Moscow Neutron Monitor is showing a huge drop in cosmic rays coincident with this CME, which is what you’d expect.
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Well I got up this morning and the Earth hasn’t melted. That was a relief.
On the other hand, I was thinking All My Troubles, Lord, will Soon be Over. So now they’re not.
stupid solar flare.
“Earth Braces for Solar Storm.” I think the anthropomorphic term for Earth is Gaia. How, exactly should Gaia and I brace for this? I looked at spaceweather.com and concluded that aurora wouldn’t be visible from New Hampshire (other checks revealed clouds and rain around). So I just avoided NASA web sites and went to bed without checking for falling protons.
Includes Northern Lights images from Michigan.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1300175/SOLAR-TSUNAMI-Northern-Lights-seen-far-Michigan-Suns-flare.html
Their new mission is outreach to Muslims. The satellites are sooo 1900’s.
Spelling Nazi: The word “tonite” should be “tonight”
[REPLY – Alrite. ~ Evan]
[REPLY – OCD, amirite? – Mike]
There is probably little cause for alarm unless you hear an emergency announcement that your power is being shut-down to protect your power grid from being damaged by an anticipated exceptionally powerful geomagnetic storm.
I have noted that since early 2009 that our current smoothed sunspot activity seems to be tracking the similarly smoothed activity of about 152.729 years ago. That is from my calculation of the time difference between the starts of sun spot cycle 23 and sunspot cycle 9. This does not mean there will be a ‘Carrington Event II’ around 2012.336, but, even if there were, it would probably go off in some other direction and avoid the Earth.
It was billed as a huge event, yet now seems to be average, or perhaps below average? Reminds me of hurricane seasons since Katrina. Both hurricanes and the Sun have been so boring of late, the slightest activity gets coverage like the end of the world as we know it.
Didn’t know the sun had it in for us: “This eruption is directed right at us”. More accurately “the earth’s orbit is in its path”.
No visible effects apparent at 10:30 – 11:00pm last night (SE of Seattle). Another bloviated non story……
In the mid 70’s (midsummer 1975, I think), we had a phenomenal aurora display in central Wisconsin. Three fourths of the visible night sky was in full display, from the northern most horizon to nearly the southern horizon. The aurora were not the mere shimmering silver wisps we had often seen in winter on the northern horizon. This was a massive display, radiating in waves of green, gold, and silver from a central point slightly north of our local position. I and my parents watched for several hours, as the display rose, fell, and rose again in majestic magnitude. Then in their late 50’s, my parents had seen nothing like it before and I, now in my 50’s, have never seen the likes since. That was an auroral display worthy of headlines!
I was up until 2 AM in Southwestern Wisconsin waiting for the lights. Saw nothing. Guess I was just at the southern edge of visibility.
NASA solar physicist David Hathaway and his band of prognisticators have blown the sunspot-count predictions big time for solar cycle 24 and now admit the sun is in a funk not seen “in our lifetime.” They are looking for anything to hype. To their credit, they’ve refrained from linking coronal mass ejections to global warming.
I wonder how many people are disappointed when a projected major storm ‘wimps-out’ and how many are just relieved. Of course, if you have just finished spending a lot of time and money getting ready for the predicted event, another emotion is possible.
What does “tonite” mean? Is it an Italian name? I didn’t know they were giving alphabetic names to solar storms.
Eh, didn’t get to see any pretty lights, but I wasn’t expecting any way down here in SC. On the other hand, I was hitting out to W. Africa on HF with good clear signals.
I’ve always wanted to see the aurora. UK is cloudy with plenty of showers so I’ve missed it again. Can some solar scientist or climate ‘scientist’ tell me when the next big flare will be. Sorry, I’m asking to much. We haven’t got a real theory about the workings of the sun (and therefore climate) so I will just have to stick with the blog and take my chance. Keep ’em coming Anthony.
How many amperes per sq.meter? or just a “summer breeze”?
Based on this early data, this is classed as a moderate solar storm, not a major one as NASA and NOAA had earlier announced. There is minimal risk of damage to satellites.
Those bad calculations why? They are supposed to apply the Arabic’s mathematics….
Is is a bird?, Is it a meteor?…No, it’s a flying carpet!
Grumpy Old Man says:
August 4, 2010 at 9:19 am
Aurora is an spanish word which means Sunrise light, I am afraid you won’t see any auroras from the UK never more….to see them you must go to Brussels.
Ken Hall says:
August 4, 2010 at 5:07 am
I wonder how much outright hysteria will be generated when a really big M class flare throws material our way?
I understand that reporters cannot be an expert on everything, but a simple understanding of the very basics is often sorely lacking and replaced by a gullible hysteria.
A classic example that made me slackjawed in incredulity was the media’s reportage on the alleged mobile WMD labs discovered in Iraq which were in fact battlefield helium generators for weather balloons to assess targeting options for regular munitions.
How anyone could believe for a second, that the most deadly form of biological weapons known to man could be manufactured in the curtain sided trucks shown on the news is completely beyond comprehension.
_________________________________________________________
The mass media almost ALWAYS screws up the details. Here are a few of the tales of weapons manufacture in Algeria by al Qaeda:
Pakistanis view damage of a blast that occurred in a village. An anonymous source said authorities in the first week of January intercepted an urgent communication between the leadership of al Qaeda in the Land of the Maghreb (AQIM) and al Qaeda’s leadership in the tribal region of Pakistan on the border with Afghanistan…http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jan/19/al-qaeda-bungles-arms-experiment/
40 al-Qaeda members died after being exposed to the plague during a biological weapons test; Homeland Security Newswire
Here is a more rational discussion: See comment by Crosspatch: http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/7645
Enneagram says:
August 4, 2010 at 9:53 am
How many amperes per sq.meter? or just a “summer breeze”?
Of the order of 1/1,000,000 amp/sq.meter
I thought I felt fewer charged particles pass through me…. One month’s GCR count from Oulu:
http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/webform/query.cgi?startdate=2010/07/01&starttime=00:00&enddate=2010/08/04&endtime=17:33&resolution=Automatic choice&picture=on
From spaceweather.com some articles, and the solar wind has picked up from 439.1 km/sec on August 2, to 541.9 km/sec on August 4, as of a few minutes ago.
http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=04&month=08&year=2010
Solar Tsunami aftermath operations checklist:
Telco up: Yes
AC Power ‘grid’* up: Yes
Internet up: Yes
HF Radios functional: Yes
Broadcast TV networks up: Yes
A-okay here in the hot plains of Texas …
* There are actually several ‘grids’ at work in the continental 48 states, and of these several grids there are operational areas that may be ‘islanded’ for the purposes of stability or protection (either before or after an event)
.
Our sky turned to a very mottled and greyish appearance yesterday afternoon, about 3pm PDT. Seemed to time about the start of the Moscow NM count drop.
Lasted about 1/2 hour. No winds, no fires.
The Kp index has hit a 6 on its 0 to 9 scale. Based on this early data, this is classed as a moderate solar storm, not a major one as NASA and NOAA had earlier announced. There is minimal risk of damage to satellites.
So it’s not worse than they thought.
Now that is news.
——————-
Leif Svalgaard said on August 4, 2010 at 10:51 am
So deploying a giant steel mesh space antenna to catch the “green renewable energy” is a non-starter?
Crud, there goes another research grant application trying to score some federal stimulus money. Dang it, with just a measly $2 million in the bank gathering interest I could “research” for life. Congress spends more than that at Starbucks!
Although… If I link the “green renewable” with “partial solar sunscreen” to “offset the expected effects of Anthropogenic Climate Change”…
Leif Svalgaard says: August 4, 2010 at 3:57 am
(vukcevic says:August 4, 2010 at 12:09 am There are some indications that the Arctic’s field and solar activity are correlated.)
Leif Svalgaard says: August 4, 2010 at 3:57 am No, this is just coincidence, and doesn’t hold up if one goes further back in time.
For a scientist of some reputation you tend to resort to nonsense far too often.
As someone has already pointed to you:
‘On WUWT discussion you showed total lack of knowledge of the field variation in the Arctic.’ (quote)
Here is what you said: ‘the correlation is fluff: just cherry picked coincidence.’
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/27/spacequakes/#comment-442064
Now you profess you know what happened before 1600, but you DID NOT KNOW WHAT WAS GOING ON IN 20th CENTURY.
At your comment ‘the correlation breaks down if one goes further back in time’ it was also pointed to you following:
“That is not correct. Fact is it is not known.
– Correlation in vuckevic’s work refers to a specific location (Denmark Strait).
– The Earth’s magnetic dipole strength during the period quoted is ‘nothing like’ the field for the above.
– There is no data base available which provides field intensity approximation for a particular location prior to 1590, to substitute it with the dipole’s approximation does not stand, since they appear to be totally different.
In short, Dr. Svalgaard to say the correlation breaks down is misrepresenting the facts as they are known.” (quote).
Once you expressed some concern for my credibility.
I think you are putting on line your credibility by making denouncing statments without having data to support it.
I do not know was there correlation before 1600 or not, since I have no data, if you do have data for Denmark Strait pre 1600, not dipole (since 2 are grossly out of line), lets have it so we can see, what was going on.
I also have no data for solar activity before 1600, so I do not know was there correlation or not.
Do you have data for the solar activity pre 1600, if you do let’s have it (it has been noted you doubt data for the 1800’s let alone 1600).
Redeemer I am claiming correlation, magnetic field (z component) and solar activity since 1600, according to the data available.
Do you have accurate data for both before 1600 ?
If you do, then you and I, and anyone else interested can check if there is a correlation or not.
I do not claim either way. You claim there is not before 1600 (with no data shown !?) but your statement ‘doesn’t hold up if one goes further back in time’ appears not to deny there is after 1600!
Let’s have data, this is ‘the science blog’ no second hand car market dealership.