NASA announced that a massive solar flare that erupted Sunday should strike Earth some time tonite in the early AM hours (Correction, has struck Earth, details follow).
“This eruption is directed right at us and is expected to get here early in the day on Aug. 4,” said Leon Golub of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. “It’s the first major Earth-directed eruption in quite some time.”
The solar eruption, called a coronal mass ejection, was spotted by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory, which captures high-definition views of the sun at a variety of wavelengths. SDO was launched in February and peers deep into the layers of the sun, investigating the mysteries of its inner workings.
“We got a beautiful view of this eruption,” Golub said. “And there might be more beautiful views to come if it triggers aurorae.”
When a coronal mass ejection strikes Earth, solar plasma streams down the lines of force in Earth’s electromagnetic field, striking the upper atmosphere, where oxygen and nitrogen molecules become excited like the gas in neon signs, becoming aurorae, and triggering geomagnetic storms. Depending on the strength of the CME, aurorae can grow in size and brightness from the polar regions down to more temperate latitudes.
NASA and satellite manufacturers, however, are far more worried about damage to orbiting satellites.
The interwebs is coming alive with the first major solar storm of SC24. After remaining dormant since 2006, the Sun is finally coming alive.
UPDATE:
WATCH VIDEO: A solar eruption sends a wave of plasma hurtling towards Earth on August 1st, 2010. The event was captured by NASA satellites
Proton flux and magnetometer readings are showing beautiful spikes:
The Kp index has hit a 6 on its 0 to 9 scale. Based on this early data, this is classed as a moderate solar storm, not a major one as NASA and NOAA had earlier announced. There is minimal risk of damage to satellites.
UPDATE 2: WUWT commenter R. Gates notes that the Moscow Neutron Monitor is showing a huge drop in cosmic rays coincident with this CME, which is what you’d expect.
UPDATE 2: WUWT commenter R. Gates notes that the Moscow Neutron Monitor is showing a huge drop in cosmic rays coincident with this CME, which is what you’d expect
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Looking back at the data from the Neutron Monitor, with the arrival of this CME, we’ve seen the cosmic ray count drop to levels not seen since before the last solar minimum. For those looking at the short term climate ramifications, as we climb to to Solar Max 24 in 2013, we’ll see increasing amounts of these CME’s, increasing solar irradiance, much lower cosmic rays, and a tenth or so of a degree added to global temps.
R. Gates, you’ve got to be kidding. We will “see” a tenth of a degree added? With this noisy planet???? Intrinsic weather noise sources and our tenuous temperature measurement error buries this kind of nonsense. As it does CO2 related changes.
Nasa’s Solar and Heliospheric Observatory movie theater has a subliminal message from the Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) at 2010-07-21 00:00
The message says “CCD BAKEOUT” and whatever caused it seems to have killed anything new from EIT for the new 9 days. Perhaps things were happening earlier than August
vukcevic says:
August 4, 2010 at 2:12 pm
– There is no data base available which provides field intensity approximation for a particular location prior to 1590
Strictly speaking there are no intensity measurements anywhere before 1830s, but paleomagnetic data can be used to reconstruct the field, and not just the global dipole, but the gross features of the higher harmonics as well. See for example the right-hand panel of Figure 9 in
http://edoc.gfz-potsdam.de/gfz/get/8289/0/a49ca0eba2826c3b17cd4c1baf27505a/korte_ID82890_2003_fin.pdf
to substitute it with the dipole’s approximation does not stand, since they appear to be totally different.
How can you say they are totally different if you have no data?
Anyway, the dipolar part is the greatest part [~90%] of the total [or vertical field], so if the dipole increases by a factor of two, the vertical field roughly also does.
vukcevic says:
August 4, 2010 at 2:12 pm
– There is no data base available which provides field intensity approximation for a particular location prior to 1590
Here is a movie showing the radial field intensity the last 7000 years [as seen from the North Pole]: http://www.leif.org/research/Br7mov3.mpg The data base is called CALS7K.2 and is described here: Korte, M., A. Genevey, C.G. Constable, U. Frank. E. Schnepp (2005) Continuous geomagnetic models for the past 7 millennia I: A new global data compilation. Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 6(2), Q02H15 DOI 10.1029/2004GC000800
Henry says:
August 4, 2010 at 4:44 pm
Nasa’s Solar and Heliospheric Observatory movie theater has a subliminal message from the Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) at 2010-07-21 00:00
The message says “CCD BAKEOUT” and whatever caused it seems to have killed anything new from EIT for the new 9 days. Perhaps things were happening earlier than August
The ccd chip is operated cold to get low noise operation, however over time crud accumulates on the chip and it needs cleaning. This is done by heating the chip and evaporating the crud, aka ‘bakeout’.
Leif Svalgaard says:
August 4, 2010 at 7:06 pm
vukcevic says:
August 4, 2010 at 2:12 pm
“- There is no data base available which provides field intensity approximation for a particular location prior to 1590”
Here is a movie showing the radial field intensity the last 7000 years …
What you need to learn [and as I have demonstrated time and time again] is that when I say something, I can always back it up, with data, links, references, and knowledge. There is a valuable lesson for you in this.
Leif Svalgaard says:
August 4, 2010 at 3:57 am
< Leif Svalgaard says:
August 4, 2010 at 3:57 am
Would that be measurement time or proxy time?
No offence meant, but proxy time has taken a severe dent.
DaveE.
David A. Evans says:
August 4, 2010 at 7:45 pm
Would that be measurement time or proxy time?
What is ‘proxy time’ ?
There have been a number of momentary power outtages and brownouts yesterday and today lasting 1-2 seconds, and other lengthy power outtages in other communities in Southern Illinois. The power company reported they were having a problem locating a power relay that was cycling. Unable to locate the problem relay, they finally dealt with the problem by redistributing the load. So far, so good. With air temperatures reaching 102F, it is not necessarily surprising to find the power distribution systems becoming prone to some failures. However, it is tempting to wonder whether or not the CME event has contributed in some measure, large or small, to exacerbating the problems and faults in the power distribution system that resulted in the outtages?
Outtagesd occured:
2010-08-03 morning CT
210-08-04 1226 CT
210-08-04 1302 CT
210-08-04 1331 CT
210-08-04 1426 CT
210-08-04 1508 CT
evanmjones says:
August 3, 2010 at 10:22 pm
But would we have been better off if we never knew what hit us?
Ya, they say if you’re just relaxed you don’t get injured.
Leif Svalgaard says: August 4, 2010 at 7:36 pm ……………
Leif Svalgaard says: August 4, 2010 at 7:06 pm ……………
Leif Svalgaard says: August 4, 2010 at 5:49 pm …………….
Dr Svalgaard.
As a scientist claiming expert knowledge in this field you make number of assertions, which are either uncertain or even contradicted by facts.
MY case for correlation for the last 400 years is based on numerical DATA from the world most respected institution.
For YOUR claim YOU have no data !
NO DATA NO CONTEST.
One warm summer night back in about ’75 or ’76 a few friends and I camped out on the shores of Lake Michigan in SW Michigan. We had a roaring fire going and plenty of cold beer. Sometime after midnight someone left the circle around the fire to pee and came back very excited about the aurora. “Yeah, sure…aurora in southern Michigan!”
But sure enough it was there and it was absolutely spectacular. It lasted all night long. Huge multi-colored glowing curtains in the sky. The next day the paper reported it was one of the most spectacular aurora displays ever recorded in Michigan and was easily viewed all the way down into central Indiana. I wonder just how big a CME caused that one.
I saw the aurora again a few years later on a summer night in northern Michigan but it was in the distance in the northern sky and not as bright and vivid. The earlier one appeared to be right over us and all around us. It’s one of my fondest memories.
Here is what I claim :
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC1.htm
Nasa is in the business of space exploration. It is fortunate that we don’t have anybody halfway to Mars right now as intrepid space explorers caught out by such an event end up lightly toasted to deep crispy fried. One important reason Nasa studies such events is in the hope of eventually coming up with an early warning system to help mitigate the cooked astronaut problem.
Did we survive? 😉
Leif Svalgaard says: August 4, 2010 at 5:49 pm …………….
You also failed to produce data for solar activity before 1600, but of course, it does not exist; C14 and B10 are grossly contaminated (even you claimed that B10 proxy is only a good proxy for B10).
How do you calculate correlation without data for both variables with no numbers available.
To summarise:
There is a correlation for last 400 years for which there are numerical data (you appear to not dispute that), but you are categorical that:
‘doesn’t hold up if one goes further back in time’
for period for which there is no numerical data.
Don’t you think that is a spurious claim?
Let’s remember I did not say what may or may not be case pre 1600.
The last 400 years should be sufficiently long period (especially since there is no data before then) to consider that there is some value to it.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC1.htm
vukcevic says:
August 5, 2010 at 4:36 am
The last 400 years should be sufficiently long period (especially since there is no data before then)
The data before 1840 [that is for the first 250 years of your interval] are of the same kind as for the 7000 years before and have been processed by the same respected institution and the same outstanding scientists. Their webpage states “This web page is for CALS7K and its relatives. CALS7K is a time varying spherical harmonic model for the geomagnetic field. It is Continuous, constructed from Archeomagnetic (including lavas) and Lake Sediment paleomagnetic data and spans the past 7kyr (5000 BC -1950 AD). […] The goal is to extend the excellent GUFM1 historical model (Jackson et al., 2000) back in time to study long term secular variation of the geomagnetic field.”
It seems they have achieved that. On their page there is this link to the observational numerical] data: “Data used to construct CALS7K.2”.
The solar data can be extracted form 10Be with enough confidence to get the envelope of the variation, so data exists.
Pamela Gray says:
August 4, 2010 at 3:54 pm
R. Gates, you’ve got to be kidding. We will “see” a tenth of a degree added? With this noisy planet???? Intrinsic weather noise sources and our tenuous temperature measurement error buries this kind of nonsense. As it does CO2 related changes…
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Respectfully, you are incorrect Pamela. You can look back at the past several solar cycles and quite clearly see the global temperature boost during the solar max events, riding on top of the general uptrend in global temps. The increase in solar irradiance during solar max events can be seen almost immediately in the temps, whereas of course the forcing from CO2 take much longer and the relative yearly increase in CO2 is small compared to the big boost you get in irradiance during solar max events. However, with several hundred years of CO2 increases, up now 40% since the 270-280 ppm average of the 1700’s, we are likely seeing the cummulative effects showing up more and more in global temps. For those who doubt that it is easy to see the few tenths of a degree increase in temps that can be seen during solar max events, I suggest you go to: http://www.climate4you.com/
and click on sun in the left hand column.
Sorry Pamela, but you’re just flat out wrong on this one.
R. Gates says:
August 5, 2010 at 9:56 am
For those who doubt that it is easy to see the few tenths of a degree increase in temps that can be seen during solar max events, I suggest you go to: http://www.climate4you.com/
We expect about one tenth of a degree change and that may be in the data, but not ‘a few tenths’.
Came here to see Vuk and Leif bicker..
Leaving satisfied..
fathead says:
August 5, 2010 at 10:51 am
Came here to see Vuk and Leif bicker.. Leaving satisfied..
Yes, his stuff and desperation and insults have great entertainment value…
Leif Svalgaard says: August 4, 2010 at 7:06 pm
“Here is a movie showing the radial field intensity the last 7000 years [as seen from the North Pole]: http://www.leif.org/research/Br7mov3.mpg
The data base is called CALS7K.2″
Vuk is referring to vertical Z component. Careful analysis of the NOAA’s map for the Northern hemisphere for 1950 shows totally different set of contours (after taking into account that one is polar and the other Mercator projection)
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/data/mag_maps/pdf/F_map_mf_1950.pdf
http://www.leif.org/research/Geo-Br-1000-1950.png
On your video map the area Vuk is considering has the same intensity as Central African republic.
Noaa’s map shows field of 50-51000 (Vuk’s graph gives ~50.8micro Tesla =59000nT) for the Denmark Str. and 0.0 (ZERO) nano Tesla for CAR.
Your video map cannot therefore be a reliable reference for assessment of Vuk’s correlation!
Any explanation for such INCREDIBLE differences?
NOAA’s magnetic map link is:
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/data/mag_maps/pdf/Z_map_mf_1950.pdf
radun says:
August 5, 2010 at 3:05 pm
Leif Svalgaard says: August 4, 2010 at 7:06 pm
“Here is a movie showing the radial field intensity the last 7000 years [as seen from the North Pole]: http://www.leif.org/research/Br7mov3.mpg
The data base is called CALS7K.2″
Vuk is referring to vertical Z component.
The movie shows the radial component Br. This is just another name for the vertical Z component. The movie shows the real magnetic field of the Earth where it is generated [in the core]. At the surface we see a blurred version of that [and much weaker]. But it is possible to calculate the field at any point from the CALS7K.2 coefficient. Also in the Denmark Strait. One finds that the dipole now gains the upper hand and basically determines the Br [or Z]. Near the equator, Br becomes zero at the surface, but not at depth.
Here is how to calculate the field at any point:
http://www.leif.org/research/CALS7K.txt
the data file is here http://earthref.org/cgi-bin/er.cgi?s=erda.cgi?n=413
In the polar regions the higher harmonics maintain their shape [c.f. the two lobed structure seen in modern maps]. Only the values are strongly diminished with respect to the dipole.
As I said, there is data, it is of reasonable quality and the vertical component during the MWP was much stronger in the Denmark strait than today. Live with it.