Joe writes to me today to tell me he’s started a weekly sea ice video report. He’s following our weekly Sea Ice News and Sea Ice Page lead, and even prominently referencing WUWT during his broadcast. Good for him, because this “death spiral watch” is of intense interest wordwide. Two years of sea ice recovery is interesting, but third year in a row is a whole new ball game.
Our one stop shopping Sea Ice Page has quickly become a world wide favorite, and Joe uses some of the graphics offered there.
Joe is now in agreement with Steve Goddard and me on the forecast. We’ll see how it pans out this coming September, last September we hit minimum at 09/13/2009 with a minimum of 5, 249, 844 km2 (source here)
To watch the AccuWeather broadcast go to:
http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp?channel=vbbastaj
BTW I should add the Joe, being of Italian descent also says in his email he was being cute with “Antnee” used the term “cumare” like some would use the word “com-padre”. Of course I’m sure those who have a long standing dislike of me will choose their own wise guy definition.
I could be wrong but….
last September we hit minimum at 09/13/2010
Would not 09/13/09 be more appropriate for last September?
REPLY: Heh, habit of writing 2010 on too many things, fixed thanks. – Anthony
Still betting on near normal or 1SD minimum based on PREVIOUS concentrations. Expect a sharp flattening out in coming days. lol
Pretty neat.
Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
July 26, 2010 at 5:49 pm
The latest value for the Nino 3.4 index is -0.79
Wonderfully clear and lucid reporting. Thank you for that, Anthony!
But that doesn’t change the fact we need to ban CO2 immediately to “save the Earth” and bring “social justice” and “profits to Al Gore and company”.
All good stuff and don’t want to be a party pooper.
But I’d still like to see how the other big thermaggedonist icon is shaping up.
The tropical troposphere hot spot.
Anyone seen it lately?
A solid scientist ahead of the pack who knows what he’s talking about, and a courageous independent with character and wit, Joe rules the weather waves!
This is a useful read regarding Sea Ice variation:
http://www.john-daly.com/polar/arctic.htm
One of the good things about this guy is that he is upfront about what his predictions are. Whether he’s right 100% of the time (and almost no-one is) or not, he puts his predictions up for public consumption so that, when the data comes in, it will be clear whether he knows something about climate/ice/snow or not.
I do think, though, that temperature plots of 70 – 80N might be as interesting as 80N+ to see how arctic ice will progress. Whether such data is also around I don’t know, but if people could see connections between what happens at time A at the pole and things which happen either before or after at different latitudes, then some understanding and sense might start to be brought to bear about how our climate system integrates as a whole.
Anyone out there collating that sort of thing?
I think this could be a very interesting La Nina event as so many other NH weather systems are working in concert to generate another severe winter. The sun is also in quiet mode.
(Thanks Jimbo)
If Joe says the ice is gonna end up near last year, then chances are pretty high that it will – basta. Forget a new record. The once a week sea ice report is good for making the public aware of the Arctic reality. I’m glad Joe is bringing sanity to the public – unlike some big elected officials, like Kerry, who really ought to know better.
But for the climate bloggers the mesaage is not what the ice does every week, rather what it does over the years. This weekly cheering is like checking the grass every 10 minutes to see how it’s growing. The real crystal ball is the ENSO and the Atlantic one…forgot the name…whatever…
Hey Antnee, don’t laugh at Italian-American meteorologists unless you want a polar bear’s head in your bed. Know what I’m sayin’ ?
(And I am of Italian descent, just so’s you know)
Don’t forget that the Sicilian dialects often replace the “o” with the “u” so the Italian “compare” becomes “cumpare” (often pronounced “cumbare”) and “comare” becomes “cumare”
Cryosphere’s compare tool and archives seem to no longer be where they were, or something. I wonder if that has anything to do with you and Werme using them for the sea ice page?
DMI = IARC-JAXA, NSIDC = NOAA, jumbling up extent, area and ice thickness. I think even I know more about Arctic sea ice than Bastardi.
Good thing for him that a La Niña is developing. Should offer him months of delaying fun. After that comes another El Niño with a more active sun than during this last one which boosted global temperatures almost as high or higher (depending on dataset) than the Super El Niño of 1998.
Two years of sea ice recovery is interesting, but third year in a row is a whole new ball game.
last September we hit minimum at 09/13/2009 with a minimum of 5, 249, 844 km2
I agree – if the minimum this year is lower than last years, the “two years of sea ice recovery” becomes just an interesting footnote to history.
I’ll tell my grandkids how some people got excited about them…
Anu says:
July 27, 2010 at 2:11 pm
It’s called hope. The world grows hopeful, seeing a light at the end of the dark & foreboding tunnel of Cap & Trade Monster Tax plus the oppressive dogma of AGW. It’s also the underdog story, as Bastardi and others have called the Ginormous GCM’s out on the rug of public opinion. Whom will win: Joe vs Godzilla.
An American story if there ever was one.
Haven’t heard much from Piers in a while.
Oh, I dunno, you could have 4 years out of 5 up for twenty years and never have 3 in a row up. I do believe it will be up from last year, but if it is just a fraction down, that doesn’t overly dismay me. Halts momentum for the “recovery” argument? Clearly. But I’d still want to see 2011 –three out of four “up” would still be pretty good.
Anu says:
July 27, 2010 at 2:11 pm
Two years of sea ice recovery is interesting, but third year in a row is a whole new ball game.
last September we hit minimum at 09/13/2009 with a minimum of 5, 249, 844 km2
I agree – if the minimum this year is lower than last years, the “two years of sea ice recovery” becomes just an interesting footnote to history.
I’ll tell my grandkids how some people got excited about them…”
If 1 years results negates the “recovery” argument then I assume you also agree that the past 3 years don’t support the “death spiral” argument.
Annual comparisons of September average sea ice extents, starting with 1999->2000, then 2000->2001, etc:
Up, up, down, up, down, down, up, down, up, up.
Six ups, four downs.
Sounds like the ice is recovering, no ?
http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20091005_Figure3.png
No.
I agree 2011 will be an interesting summer – Cryosat-2 should be giving us data by then. I think every year, the scientific data available on the Web becomes better, and scientific institutions spend a little more time bothering to explain things to casual websurfers. I especially liked the Google Earth animations that NSIDC worked up a few months ago – much more 21st Century than those tiny 2D plots some institutions churn out, as though it were still 1988. I also read about gliders under the Arctic sea ice, like Argo floats but more autonomous and mobile – I’d like to see some of that data by next summers melt.
FWIW, the JAXA AMSR-E Arctic Sea Ice Extent for July 27th just came out and 2010 has passed 2009. If this is revised later (often it’s revised upwards by ~17,000 sq-km) 2010 will have about a 1/2 day lead. Obviously, this lead could evaporate (pun intended), but it’s encouraging for now.
And how is the sea ice area doing ?
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Area.png
Here is funny weatherman Bastardi’s prediction of cooling:
http://www.accuweather.com/video/110914873001/more-on-the-coming-cooling.asp
Most of the serious skeptics blogging at Accuweather’s climate change blog, have been banned. I wonder how much longer JB will be able to express contrary opinion. The blog seems to have be hijacked by the AGW convinced moderation.
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=ea6a74a9c6ff8d8f8ff26eab9fb1a780&showforum=47
A valuable forum has been degraded. Can it’s decline be reversed.
I understand the Italian birthrate is continuing to fall (in Italy), this trend is more significant than the weather in the Arctic. As Italy goes, so goes the World, please remember that. Well, the Western World. We need to find out what their problem is and fix it fast. Hope it has nothing to do with the weather. If so, we’ll really have to work fast. I hear it hasn’t changed much in thousands of years.