By Steve Goddard
The Arctic is proud to have been listed as one of many “fastest warming places on earth.”
The GISS 250km Arctic image below shows temperature trends from 1880-2009. Areas in black represent regions with no data.
In most fields of science, data is considered an essential element of historical analysis. But climate science gets a pass, because it involves “saving the planet.” Antarctic coverage is equally as impressive. The image below looks right through the earth to the Arctic hole.
Temperatures in the high Arctic have been running well below normal and have started their annual decline. There are only about 30 days left of possible melt above 80N.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
This can be seen in North Pole webcams which show the ice frozen solid.
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/webphotos/noaa2.jpg
As forecast in last week’s sea ice news, ice loss accelerated during the past week over the East Siberian Sea due to above normal temperatures.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
The modified NSIDC map below shows (in red) regions of the Arctic that have lost ice over the past week.
The modified NSIDC map below shows (in red) ice loss since early April.
The modified NSIDC map below shows (in red) ice loss since July 1. The Beaufort Sea has actually gained ice (green.) Looks like a Northwest Passage traverse is quite possible (by helicopter.)
Ice loss from July 1 through July 23 has been the slowest on record in the JAXA database. Ice loss during July has been about one half that of 2007.
The graph below shows the difference between 2010 and 2007 melt. 2010 started the month half a million km² behind 2007, and is now half a million km² ahead of 2007.
The modified NSIDC image below shows the difference between 2007 ice and 2010 ice. Green indicates more ice in 2010, red indicates less.
“Climate expert” Joe Romm reported in May
Arctic sea ice shrinks faster than 2007, NSIDC director Serreze says, “I think it’s quite possible” we could “break another record this year.” Watts and Goddard seem in denial
Average ice thickness continues to follow a track below 2006 and above 2009, hinting that my prediction of a 5.5 million km² minimum continues to be correct.
During July, ice movement has been quite different from 2007 – which had strong winds compressing the ice towards the pole. By contrast, July 2010 has seen winds generally pushing away from the pole. Thus the ice edge on the Pacific side is further from the pole. No rocket science there, and a pretty strong indication that the alleged 2007 record summer melt was primarily due to wind.
Cryosphere Today showed two days ago that Arctic Basin ice is nearly identical to 20 years ago, but unfortunately their web site is down and I can’t generate any images.
NCEP forecasts warm temperatures in the East Siberian, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas for the next week, so I expect that melt will continue around the edges of the Arctic Basin.
Meanwhile, Antarctic ice continues well above normal. Antarctica is also the fastest warming place on the planet.
Conclusion: There is no polar meltdown at either pole.
Next week we start comparing PIOMASS forecasts vs. reality. PIOMASS claims that Arctic ice is the thinnest on record.
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WUWT regular Vukcevik is heating the Artic up with his electromagnetics wands 🙂
However while one side heats up the other cools down:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/AT-GMF.gif
On August 28th, Bear Grylls will set off to navigate the Northwest Passage in an infatable boat to publicise ‘global warming’. Do you think that he’ll make it?
http://www.fcpnorthwestpassage.com/journey/route–timeline
This issue is too cold for us, in the southern hemisphere….Brrrrrrrrr!
Zilla says:
July 25, 2010 at 1:44 pm
Now, I suspect, we are seeing the beginning of the blog wars
Arguments of global warming are not new. This video clip is from 1990
Re NWP
http://ice-map.appspot.com for arctic 25th July seems to show a “clear” (water+moving ice floes) NWP for an ice hardened freighter. You’d be a fool to take a non-hardened vessel through though.
Re the Ice Cam: Reviewing the sequence of images, you can see that a long polyna has opened across the background. However, a number of melt ponds have shrunk in size, or disappeared altogether after the recent snowfalls (which cover the camera lens at times) See at http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/gallery_np.html
sTv,
You have to peer-review graphs?
You guys must be feeling uneasy.
Ian… says:
July 25, 2010 at 1:54 pm
sVt A.K.A. “Ex” Republican on another blog
The “WOOT” gives you away
Was the other blog for the educationally sub normal, since I for one found his post utterly incomprehensible gibberish.
Julienne,
My comment about the NWP was satire about the idea of it as a commercial route. The fact that a few people have managed to slip through (with great difficulty) in recent years during a one week window, doesn’t sound like a commercial opportunity to me.
Phil
Read my lips : “Arctic Basin”
Note: The ice melt graph from July 1-23 was originally posted incorrectly with last week’s graph. It was updated about 10 minutes later.
Is there a relationship between getting colder earlier in the Arctic and colder winters further south? Like Canada and the continental US?
DaveH
Of course he will make it. With an inflatable raft, he can portage around or over the ice.
stevengoddard says:
July 25, 2010 at 2:23 pm
Julienne,
My comment about the NWP was satire about the idea of it as a commercial route. The fact that a few people have managed to slip through (with great difficulty) in recent years during a one week window, doesn’t sound like a commercial opportunity to me.
_______________
It is possible that both the NWP and NEP will open up this year, if even for a week or two. If the trends of the past 10 years continue, there will be plenty of commercial opportunity opening up in the Arctic in the coming years, and this will undoubtedly cause some issues in their own right.
Gorgeous. I hope that the mining companies (and states) that were expecting an ice-free Arctic are suing Al Gore.
Ross Jackson says:
July 25, 2010 at 2:13 pm
Re NWP
http://ice-map.appspot.com for arctic 25th July seems to show a “clear” (water+moving ice floes) NWP for an ice hardened freighter. You’d be a fool to take a non-hardened vessel through though.
Most of the yachts that have sailed through there make it through in Aug/Sept, I can’t see there’ll be any problem with that this year. For example the two Royal Marines set sail from Inuvik on July 24th last year. Apparently they’re going to rejoin their boat in Gjoa Havn on the 11th Aug to complete their journey.
Phil. says:
July 25, 2010 at 1:18 pm
This can be seen in North Pole webcams which show the ice frozen solid.
Doesn’t look frozen solid to me, in fact the crack through the site which has been there since late May has started to really open up as well.
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/npole/2010/images/noaa2-2010-0725-130427.jpg
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And, the lead in the ice is a significant occurence, how?
Steve was talking about the temperature.
Sky conditions, also, don’t seem to be favorable to ice melt in the link you provided.
Of course, it’s just weather, and pack ice dynamics.
Yes, the NW passage is almost open and should be within a few weeks. Same for NE passage. See This detailed map
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png
stevengoddard says:
July 25, 2010 at 2:24 pm
Phil
Read my lips : “Arctic Basin”
So the ice which doesn’t normally start to melt until August hasn’t started to melt yet just like in 1990 but as far as the rest of the ice is concerned this year is over a million square kilometers ahead!
Wouldn’t hovercraft type vessels be suitable for traversing both open water and low lying ice? Are there too many jagged and pointy ice structures to make hovercrafting around the Arctic a possibility?
roger says:
July 25, 2010 at 2:23 pm
Ian… says:
July 25, 2010 at 1:54 pm
sVt A.K.A. “Ex” Republican on another blog
The “WOOT” gives you away
Was the other blog for the educationally sub normal, since I for one found his post utterly incomprehensible gibberish.
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It is a political site that leans to the right. Thefoxnation.com
NW Passage has opened several times in history. It is nothing noteworthy for it to open now. But I suppose if you want to make it look like the NW Passage opening is something alarming you’ll keep history out of the picture.
Phil:
“According to CT on that date this year the ice area was 5.1075397Mm^2 whereas on the same date in 1990 it was 6.1955042Mm^2, that isn’t nearly identical!”
I would be very chary about comparing those two figures. In the 80’s and 90’s SSM/I saw a lot of ice in places where there wasn’t any. Just have a look at the Baltic, the White Sea and the Pechora coast (where there is positively never any ice in July, the Baltic is even bathable then).
The “Experts” have ruined the hunt, again. Polar bears have been GULAGed.
It’s so bad, “They set up a camp that includes an electric fence and is watched over by Inuvialuit wildlife monitors to protect them from roaming polar bears. ”
…-
“Experts seek lost ship that marked end of Arctic passage”
http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20100725/lost-arctic-ship-100725/
Phil,
Do you see anything out of the ordinary happening in Arctic ice? The truth is it looks like nothing out of the ordinary is happening. But do you see something out of the ordinary?
So much has been staked by both sides on the Arctic ice melt that September could be the STALINGRAD of the AGW controversy. Defeat for the warmists – in the form of continued year-on-year recovery 2007-2008-2009-2010, would establish a firm trend and culminate a long series of failed AGW predictions of Arctic ice death spiral. It will not be the end of the conflict – far from it – the Kursks, Prokhorovkas and Berlins will still lie ahead. But the tide will have turned.